Oscar Awards and movies bets and discussions

[bbc.reporter]

Sadly, I think above discussions about "hotness of issue" will decide winner for best actress. I'm Asian but last year's Oscar winner for best film was not deserving. I liked the movie but I think it won because it was Asian. Same as best actress. Michelle Yeoh did way better in old films but anyway. I guess I don't need to be afraid of offending anyone since I'm self-offending lol.

I disagree on your hotness issue argument. Similar to what you have speculated, Michelle Yeoh only won as the best actress because she is Asian. It might be again the same argument after the official announcement of each category if Lily Gladstone becomes the most favored nominee. She is an America native and she will be the first in history to win an oscar award for beat actress. The people behind the woke agenda might bribe and try to make this a reality, I reckon.

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[slaman29]

Sadly, I think above discussions about "hotness of issue" will decide winner for best actress.

I disagree on your hotness issue argument. Similar to what you have speculated, Michelle Yeoh only won as the best actress because she is Asian. It might be again the same argument after the official announcement of each category if Lily Gladstone becomes the most favored nominee. She is an America native and she will be the first in history to win an oscar award for beat actress. The people behind the woke agenda might bribe and try to make this a reality, I reckon.

When I said "hotness of issue" it has nothing to do with beauty (hot). It was about how "hot" the issue related is. Asian was a hot issue and currently so is sci-fi.

That was the beginning of the woke nonsense. I push for rights and recognition but talent and rewarding of talents must be objective.

Think we all agree actually. On that note, I'm preparing to bet on Flower Moon as the winner of Best Picture. 4x odds seems really good. Now the problem only is BTC fee... 400+ satoshi per byte fee

[Saint-loup]

I disagree on your hotness issue argument. Similar to what you have speculated, Michelle Yeoh only won as the best actress because she is Asian. It might be again the same argument after the official announcement of each category if Lily Gladstone becomes the most favored nominee. She is an America native and she will be the first in history to win an oscar award for beat actress. The people behind the woke agenda might bribe and try to make this a reality, I reckon.

So if Lily Gladstone wins, it won't be because the jury likes her and her performance but because a so-called woke lobby bribed them? I hope you won't be a sore loser if you lose, because if you think the winners are actually chosen by a conspiracy, you shouldn't bet. People in the artistic and cinema industry are usually sensitive to minority issues and tend to share left-wing ideas, so they don't need to be bribed by a woke lobby to appreciate movies on these subjects IMO.

[pinggoki]

I disagree on your hotness issue argument. Similar to what you have speculated, Michelle Yeoh only won as the best actress because she is Asian. It might be again the same argument after the official announcement of each category if Lily Gladstone becomes the most favored nominee. She is an America native and she will be the first in history to win an oscar award for beat actress. The people behind the woke agenda might bribe and try to make this a reality, I reckon.

I don't agree with your reasoning for Yeoh winning that award because she's really good in the film Everything, Everywhere, All at Once and to me it feels like you're just hating on people for no reason. I do think though that there's a woke agenda but to insult Yeoh's performance is kind of weird because the film is good overall and you saying that she won because she's Asian is an insult to the whole film and the people behind that, I didn't even find a lot of people that hated the film so there's no way that the award was undeserving.

Shoutout to those that got to the 2.20 odds in Oppenheimer it seems that we have a clear winner now. Is it not a bad thing to bet on all of them if you have the money with just one account? It feels like I can make some money even if I bet on them all or should I just put an all in with the Oppenheimer? Seems like it's been decided who's going to win anyway, might as well make the safe bet.

I disagree on your hotness issue argument. Similar to what you have speculated, Michelle Yeoh only won as the best actress because she is Asian. It might be again the same argument after the official announcement of each category if Lily Gladstone becomes the most favored nominee. She is an America native and she will be the first in history to win an oscar award for beat actress. The people behind the woke agenda might bribe and try to make this a reality, I reckon.

So if Lily Gladstone wins, it won't be because the jury like her and her performance but because a so-called woke lobby bribed them? I hope you won't be a sore loser if you lose, because if you think a conspiracy choose the winners, you shouldn't bet. People in the artistic and cinema industry are usually sensitive to minority issues and tend to share left-wing ideas, so they don't need to be bribed by a woke lobby to appreciate movies on these subjects IMO.

I like to think that this isn't the case but given the current climate in terms of social justice in America, there's probably a hint of woke movement that's going to make the decision not pure but biased because they don't like the idea that they might be on the woke movement's bad side, Oscar's already got that Chris Rock incident so they might just be avoiding backlash.

[bbc.reporter]

I disagree on your hotness issue argument. Similar to what you have speculated, Michelle Yeoh only won as the best actress because she is Asian. It might be again the same argument after the official announcement of each category if Lily Gladstone becomes the most favored nominee. She is an America native and she will be the first in history to win an oscar award for beat actress. The people behind the woke agenda might bribe and try to make this a reality, I reckon.

So if Lily Gladstone wins, it won't be because the jury likes her and her performance but because a so-called woke lobby bribed them? I hope you won't be a sore loser if you lose, because if you think the winners are actually chosen by a conspiracy, you shouldn't bet. People in the artistic and cinema industry are usually sensitive to minority issues and tend to share left-wing ideas, so they don't need to be bribed by a woke lobby to appreciate movies on these subjects IMO.

It cannot be implied that there will be bribes because a jury does not decide the winners hehehe. The winners are determined through votes from all of the members of the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences. It includes not only the actors and the directors. This includes writers, producers, sound technicians, cinematographers, art designers and other members.

Similar to what you have mentioned, people in the movie industry are sensitive to left wing ideas and minority issues. If these are the voters and if they follow a certain agenda for next year's awards then I speculate that Lily Gladstone might already be the winner.

In any case, I sent 1mbtc to your escrow address already hehehe.

7582d60b7455e60e0c3d812d582ed9718931473c3119ffe9c65b25846e8f71f4

[Saint-loup]

It cannot be implied that there will be bribes because a jury does not decide the winners hehehe. The winners are determined through votes from all of the members of the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences. It includes not only the actors and the directors. This includes writers, producers, sound technicians, cinematographers, art designers and other members.

Similar to what you have mentioned, people in the movie industry are sensitive to left wing ideas and minority issues. If these are the voters and if they follow a certain agenda for next year's awards then I speculate that Lily Gladstone might already be the winner.

In any case, I sent 1mbtc to your escrow address already hehehe.

7582d60b7455e60e0c3d812d582ed9718931473c3119ffe9c65b25846e8f71f4

Thank you for sending your stake, now we will just need to wait few weeks to see it getting confirmed now lol https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/transaction/7582d60b7455e60e0c3d812d582ed9718931473c3119ffe9c65b25846e8f71f4
I know a little bit how works the voting system of Oscars but thank you to remind it here, I didn't know how to name the group of voting people actually, but maybe assembly or voting college is more accurate? I don't know but it is what it is, they don't need to be bribed by anyone to vote for political or social movies IMO.

[bbc.reporter]

@Saint-loup. The transaction has confirmed already. Good luck to our bets!

In any case, I watched Maestro and Poor Things already. Carrey Mulligan was very good in taking the role as the wife of Leonard Bernstein. Emma Stone was also very good as a type of Frankenstein creature where thr fetus brain was placed in the mother's head after the mother commited suicide. Do not watch it with children around hehehehehe.

@Rikafip. How was Killers Of The Flower Moon for you?

[Rikafip]

In any case, I watched Maestro and Poor Things already. Carrey Mulligan was very good in taking the role as the wife of Leonard Bernstein. Emma Stone was also very good as a type of Frankenstein creature where thr fetus brain was placed in the mother's head after the mother commited suicide. Do not watch it with children around hehehehehe.

I see Maetro is on Netflix but for some reason I can't force myself to watch it as I am not much interested in the subject, even though I heard from several sources that Bradley Copper did an excellent job there, and I plan to watch Poor Things this week.

@Rikafip. How was Killers Of The Flower Moon for you?

I haven't seen it yet. First problem is that its 3 and a half hours movie, and 2nd is is that during holiday period I have a list of ~20 movies I have to watch every year (8 Harry Potter movies, 3 LOTR + various Christmas classics such as Home Alone, Die Hard, Bad Santa, Elf etc) so i was busy with that. Now that holidays are over I do plan to finally watch it.

[Rikafip]

@ bbc.reporter I just came home from watching Poor Things and I definitely understand why you decided to put some money on Emma Stone as she did an awesome job there. I haven't seen Killers Of The Flower Moon yet (plan is this weekened) but I will be very surprised if Lily Gladstone did a better job. By the way, I just read that she uses she/they pronouns (Lily Gladstone, not Emma Stone) which I am sure is another reason for her being favorite for now.

With that being said, I expected a little bit more from the movie. It was good and I generally liked it, but imho its a little bit overrated when I look at IMdB rating. For me its lets say  ~7.5.

[Rikafip]

I don't see anyone mentiong Golden Globes winners so gonna share the winners in the most important categories as they can (and usually do) affect the Oscar odds. What;s promising is that Barbie won only 1 reward and for (imho) not so important category, "Cinematic and box office achievement".

Best Film (Drama)- Oppenheimer
Best male actor in a film (Drama)- Cilian Murphy
Best female actor in a film (Drama)- Lily Gladstone
Best film – musical or comedy - Poor Things
Best male actor in a film – musical or comedy- Paul Giamatti
Best female actor in a film – musical or comedy - Emma Stone
Best non-English language film - Anatomy of a Fall
Best screenplay for a film -  Justine Triet and Arthur Harari for Anatomy of a Fall
Best supporting male actor in a film - Robert Downey Jr
Best supporting female actor in a film - Da’Vine Joy Randolph

Here is the full list https://www.theguardian.com/film/2024/jan/07/golden-globes-2024-the-full-list-of-winners

[bbc.reporter]

@ bbc.reporter I just came home from watching Poor Things and I definitely understand why you decided to put some money on Emma Stone as she did an awesome job there. I haven't seen Killers Of The Flower Moon yet (plan is this weekened) but I will be very surprised if Lily Gladstone did a better job. By the way, I just read that she uses she/they pronouns (Lily Gladstone, not Emma Stone) which I am sure is another reason for her being favorite for now.

With that being said, I expected a little bit more from the movie. It was good and I generally liked it, but imho its a little bit overrated when I look at IMdB rating. For me its lets say  ~7.5.

Agreed, Emma Stone really has done a very good job for Poor Things hehehehe. However, it might not be as good as Lily Gladstone who has presently become the favorite from 2.05 to 1.46. It appears @Saint-loup will be winning the bet. Congratulations.

It also appears that there might not be a storyline similar Coda for this Academy awards. Oppenheimer went from 1.77 to 1.26. There will still be another month before official Oscar's voting, however. Final odds will not be seen until March 1.

In any case, similar to my Oppenheimer as best picture speculation last year, my next speculation for best picture next year is Dune 2.

[Rikafip]

Agreed, Emma Stone really has done a very good job for Poor Things hehehehe. However, it might not be as good as Lily Gladstone who has presently become the favorite from 2.05 to 1.46. It appears @Saint-loup will be winning the bet. Congratulations.

Its too early to give it up imho as 1.46 still doesn't make a her a huge favorite. If bookies were so sure odds would be under 1.2.

It also appears that there might not be a storyline similar Coda for this Academy awards. Oppenheimer went from 1.77 to 1.26. There will still be another month before official Oscar's voting, however. Final odds will not be seen until March 1.

For that I agree, looks like Oppenheimer has it in the bag as 1.26 is very low considering the fact that nominations are not out yet.

In any case, similar to my Oppenheimer as best picture speculation last year, my next speculation for best picture next year is Dune 2.

Hope that you are right as that would make it a first scifi movie ever that won Best Picture award. Here it comes on March 1st and I can't wait to watch it but before that I will watch the first part again to get myself in the proper mood. 

[Saint-loup]

Agreed, Emma Stone really has done a very good job for Poor Things hehehehe. However, it might not be as good as Lily Gladstone who has presently become the favorite from 2.05 to 1.46. It appears @Saint-loup will be winning the bet. Congratulations.

It also appears that there might not be a storyline similar Coda for this Academy awards. Oppenheimer went from 1.77 to 1.26. There will still be another month before official Oscar's voting, however. Final odds will not be seen until March 1.

In any case, similar to my Oppenheimer as best picture speculation last year, my next speculation for best picture next year is Dune 2.

Fortunately or not, bookmakers don't vote and they are often wrong. If I agreed with them I wouldn't have bet on Gladstone because she was not their favorite, so I won't pretend they are reliable now for predicting accurately this Oscar winner. But to be honest I'm curious to know why they've changed their mind? Lily Gladstone won the Best female actor in a drama but Emma Stone also won the Best female actor in her category (musical or comedy film) so what is their criteria? Is it because her speech was just way better than Stone's one? Or is it because they've been aware of the number of votes for each one?

[ChiBitCTy]

I'm so ticked off at myself for not placing bets for the Golden Globes, so I'll definitely try and get on top of it for the Oscars. I knew that The Bear would take home some trophies, along with of course Succession as well as some of the other winners.  I've watch a lot more television and movies this year so I'm feeling confident I could place some solid bets.

[Rikafip]

But to be honest I'm curious to know why they've changed their mind? Lily Gladstone won the Best female actor in a drama but Emma Stone also won the Best female actor in her category (musical or comedy film) so what is their criteria? Is it because her speech was just way better than Stone's one?

I don't think that speeches can change much (probably not anything) but its more about how much money studio is ready to spend of the Oscar campaigns. In its essecnce, they are not much different than political campaigns where studios hire experts who then make a plan (make parties, extra screenings, classic advertisement etc) and they spend tens of millions of dollars on it.

Every once in a while we probably get a legit winners in one of the major categories but most of the time its all about lobbying, hence such weird choices more often than not.

[Rikafip]

@bbc.reporter I just finished watching Killers of the flower moon and I have to say that I don't understand all the hype around it. It was way too long, it didn't make me care about any character in the movie and worst of all, I don't understand how in hell is Lily Gladstone favorite for Best Actress Oscar. Thinking of it, I don't even understand why should she be nominated in that category as it makes more sense that she gest nominated in Best Supporting Actress category.

Of those that will probably end up getting nominated in Best Picture category I still have to watch Maestro but honestly topic of the movie doesn't really interest me so I guess it will have to wait for some time. 

[bbc.reporter]

Agreed, Emma Stone really has done a very good job for Poor Things hehehehe. However, it might not be as good as Lily Gladstone who has presently become the favorite from 2.05 to 1.46. It appears @Saint-loup will be winning the bet. Congratulations.

It also appears that there might not be a storyline similar Coda for this Academy awards. Oppenheimer went from 1.77 to 1.26. There will still be another month before official Oscar's voting, however. Final odds will not be seen until March 1.

In any case, similar to my Oppenheimer as best picture speculation last year, my next speculation for best picture next year is Dune 2.

Fortunately or not, bookmakers don't vote and they are often wrong. If I agreed with them I wouldn't have bet on Gladstone because she was not their favorite, so I won't pretend they are reliable now for predicting accurately this Oscar winner. But to be honest I'm curious to know why they've changed their mind? Lily Gladstone won the Best female actor in a drama but Emma Stone also won the Best female actor in her category (musical or comedy film) so what is their criteria? Is it because her speech was just way better than Stone's one? Or is it because they've been aware of the number of votes for each one?

But in this game of betting, the sportsbooks have a higher chance of making the correct speculation than being wrong. If they always have gotten it wrong then we can be quite certain that they would be bankrupt hehehe.

In any case, the Hollywood wokefulness agenda and the storylines on minorities being oppressed have pointed to a win for Lily Gladstone. I am not saying that she is a bad actress but there is something more behind her Oscar win than a win for anyone else.

@Rikafip. Yes hehehe. On all the movies I have watched that might be nominated for best picture, the most enjoyable is the Holdovers. This might win for best original screenplay, I reckon.

Also, news update. Final nominations might be announced next week.



Put your pencils down, and pass your ballots to the front. The nominations voting period for the 96th Academy Awards is now closed. The latest influences on the race came from the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes, where Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” topped both groups. However, Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” and Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things” has shown considerable strength, and films such as Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers” and Justine Triet’s “Anatomy of a Fall” are picking up momentum.

Source https://variety.com/2024/film/columns/oscar-voting-closes-surprises-barbie-saltburn-1235873942/

[Rikafip]

In any case, the Hollywood wokefulness agenda and the storylines on minorities being oppressed have pointed to a win for Lily Gladstone. I am not saying that she is a bad actress but there is something more behind her Oscar win than a win for anyone else.

I just don't understand how can she even be considered in the "Best Actress in a Leading Role" category. Imho she doesn't have enough significance or screen time in the film and if anything, she should be nominated in Best Supporting Actress. If she indeed wins it, it will be the one of the least deserving wins (in that category) in the last 15-20 years.

@Rikafip. Yes hehehe. On all the movies I have watched that might be nominated for best picture, the most enjoyable is the Holdovers. This might win for best original screenplay, I reckon.

I have to agree with you, Holdovers was for me the best movie last year as well and the one I might include on my Christmas list as it has a good replay value. Regarding original screenplay, it will be a fight between them and Anatomy of a Fall and since I like both movies very much, I won't mind if either of those win the award.

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. I very much agree. If we remove the Hollywood agenda, the politics and judge only from their performances, I think Sandra Hüller gave the best performace. However, we do not know if she will be included in the nominated best actress list hehehe. I wish she will because I would like to lose with her as my bet against @Saint-loup heheheheheh.

Also, agreed on Anatomy of a fall vs. the Holdovers for best original screenplay!

[Rikafip]

If we remove the Hollywood agenda, the politics and judge only from their performances, I think Sandra Hüller gave the best performace. However, we do not know if she will be included in the nominated best actress list hehehe. I wish she will because I would like to lose with her as my bet against @Saint-loup heheheheheh.

No chance in hell that Sandra Huller doesn't get the nomination so no worries about that.

I wish she will because I would like to lose with her as my bet against @Saint-loup heheheheheh.

Haha I bet that you wouldn't mind. She is my personal favorite but I woulnd't mind Emma Stone winning either. As a matter of fact, anyone will do as long as its not Lily Gladstone.


In other news, BAFTA nominations are out. Oppenheimer is the leader with 13 nominations, followed by Poor Things that got 11 and Killers of the Flower Moon with 9. What's inteersting though is that Lily Gladstone didn't get nominated in Best Actress/Best Supporting Actress category. 

Full list https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-68016520