Oscar Awards and movies bets and discussions

[Saint-loup]

In other news, BAFTA nominations are out. Oppenheimer is the leader with 13 nominations, followed by Poor Things that got 11 and Killers of the Flower Moon with 9. What's inteersting though is that Lily Gladstone didn't get nominated in Best Actress/Best Supporting Actress category.  

Full list https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-68016520

Yes and a very interesting thing is that Sandra Hüller is nominated in both catogeries(leading actress and supporting one).
Bbc.reporter also didn't report it but Emma Stone won the Best actress award of the Critics Choice Awards while Lily Gladstone and Hüller were nominated in this category, so nothing is done for now!
https://www.bafta.org/film/awards/2024-nominations-winners#leading-actress
https://www.bafta.org/film/awards/2024-nominations-winners#supporting-actress

https://www.criticschoice.com/2024/01/15/oppenheimer-wins-best-picture-at-the-29th-annual-critics-choice-awards/
https://www.criticschoice.com/2023/12/13/film-nominations-announced-for-the-29th-annual-critics-choice-awards-hosted-by-chelsea-handler/

I just finished watching Killers of the flower moon and I have to say that I don't understand all the hype around it. It was way too long, it didn't make me care about any character in the movie and worst of all, I don't understand how in hell is Lily Gladstone favorite for Best Actress Oscar. Thinking of it, I don't even understand why should she be nominated in that category as it makes more sense that she gest nominated in Best Supporting Actress category.
~~
I just don't understand how can she even be considered in the "Best Actress in a Leading Role" category. Imho she doesn't have enough significance or screen time in the film and if anything, she should be nominated in Best Supporting Actress. If she indeed wins it, it will be the one of the least deserving wins (in that category) in the last 15-20 years.
~~
Haha I bet that you wouldn't mind. She is my personal favorite but I woulnd't mind Emma Stone winning either. As a matter of fact, anyone will do as long as its not Lily Gladstone.

I will just quote what you said in November because I agree with you, your personal taste is completely irrelevant here.
For example I think the exact opposite of you, I think it would be well deserved for the movie and for herself as well as the (two) standing ovation she got from the audience at the Golden Globes.

All that is completely irrelevant when it comes to personal opinion about a movie. Everything Everywhere All At Once won 7 Oscars last year while I coulnd't even finsih the movie and I probably won't give it another try.

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[Rikafip]

For example I think the exact opposite of you, I think it would be well deserved for the movie and for herself as well as the (two) standing ovation she got from the audience at the Golden Globes.

I think that everyone (or at least majority) is aware of the fact that instead of her was a white actress dealing about some other non sensitive stuff, she would never get a leading actress nomination. Sure, we can talk about support category, but she simply doesn't have enough screen time to be considered as a leading role.

They are obviously aware of that in UK, therefore they didn't nominate her for BAFTAhtt while in the Hollywood they still feel guilty over what they did to native americans (and minorities in general) in the past and trying to feel better about themselves this way.

[Saint-loup]

I think that everyone (or at least majority) is aware of the fact that instead of her was a white actress dealing about some other non sensitive stuff, she would never get a leading actress nomination. Sure, we can talk about support category, but she simply doesn't have enough screen time to be considered as a leading role.

They are obviously aware of that in UK, therefore they didn't nominate her for BAFTAhtt while in the Hollywood they still feel guilty over what they did to native americans (and minorities in general) in the past and trying to feel better about themselves this way.

I don't know man, the topic is opened since september and you're the first one, since only 2days, saying she shouldn't be nominated in this category, and I haven't heard of such controversy anywhere else. She is nominated for the best Female Actor in a Leading Role by the Actors Guild for the SAG awards, she won a Golden Globes in a leading role category without any controversy  and bookmakers still seem to think she will get nominated for the Best actress Oscar.
https://www.sagaftra.org/nominations-announced-30th-annual-screen-actors-guild-awards%C2%AE

[Rikafip]

I don't know man, the topic is opened since september and you're the first one, since only 2days, saying she shouldn't be nominated in this category, and I haven't heard of such controversy anywhere else. She is nominated for the best Female Actor in a Leading Role by the Actors Guild for the SAG awards, she won a Golden Globes in a leading role category without any controversy  and bookmakers still seem to think she will get nominated for the Best actress Oscar.
https://www.sagaftra.org/nominations-announced-30th-annual-screen-actors-guild-awards%C2%AE

Yeah I know its not a popular opinion, but there are more who think like me (and obviously BAFTA people as well). I would understand if she gets nomination for leading actress despite the low screen time if she has memorable scenes where she outacted everyone else and dominated the screen at the time, but honestly I can't think of a single scene like and its only been a week since I saw the movie. In a year or two no one will remember her performance.

My opinion still stands, that only reason she gets into Lead Actress mix is due the subject and Apple spending God knows how much on the Oscar campaign. That all of course doesn't mean that she won't win an Oscar and that's one of the reasons why that award is lossing its relevance, which in the end is a bad thing for all of us who love movies.

[bbc.reporter]

If we remove the Hollywood agenda, the politics and judge only from their performances, I think Sandra Hüller gave the best performace. However, we do not know if she will be included in the nominated best actress list hehehe. I wish she will because I would like to lose with her as my bet against @Saint-loup heheheheheh.

No chance in hell that Sandra Huller doesn't get the nomination so no worries about that.

I disagree. There are only 5 slots for best actress nominees in the Oscar awards and we cannot underestimate Barbie's Margo Robbie, who might be the voters of the woke agenda's favorite hehehe. We also cannot ignore Fantasia Barrino from the Color Purple who will also be nominated by the voters of the woke agenda. The other leading nominees are Lily Gladstone, Emma Stone, Carey Mulligan and Sandra Hüller. We can be quite certain that Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone will be included. This fight for the last best actress nominee slot will be between Hüller and Mulligan.

[Rikafip]

We can be quite certain that Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone will be included. This fight for the last best actress nominee slot will be between Hüller and Mulligan.

I would add Sandra Huller in that mix of 100% nomination chance (along with Margot Robbie) and imho fight will be between Mulligan and Fantasia Barrino but I think that in the end former will end up getting nominated.

Don't be so pessimistic. Woke agenda is indeed strong in Hollywood but every once in a while they do a right thing and deserving persons get nominated and even win the awards.

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. The voters will not ignore Fantasia who is someone who grew up as a minority in America. They will want this representation to be shown during awarding night. It will be very good for the camera hehehehe. Carey Mulligan is a British actress and Sandra Hüller is a German. Both of them foreigners and one of them might not be included.

In any case, the announcement for the official nominees is coming, we will know them very soon hehe.



After months of campaigning and debating, awards watchers are about to have the biggest piece of that puzzle when the Oscar nominations are finally announced on Tuesday, Jan. 23, at 8:30 a.m. ET/5:30 a.m. PT.

Source https://ew.com/how-to-watch-2024-oscar-nominations-livestream-8536115

[Rikafip]

@Rikafip. The voters will not ignore Fantasia who is someone who grew up as a minority in America. They will want this representation to be shown during awarding night.
Carey Mulligan is a British actress and Sandra Hüller is a German. Both of them foreigners and one of them might not be included.

Yet Fantasia didn't get nomination while both Sandra Huller and Carey Mulligan did. I told you that you are too pessimistic and that there's no way that Sandra doesn't get nominated. Woke agenda is strong, but its not that strong to base nominations solely on that factor.


So, nominations have finally be announced and as expected Oppenheimer leads with 13, followed by Poor Things that got 11 and Killers of the Flower Moon with 10.

Full list https://variety.com/2024/film/awards/oscar-nominations-2024-list-1235877798/

[Saint-loup]

I'm a bit surprised to see Poor Things with such number of nominations while not being much appreciated by the critics and the audience. Personally I don't like very much this movie  because it is neither funny nor dramatic, and uses too many visual effects for such a story. I hope it won't get many awards. Anyway now bookmakers think Emma Stone has more chances to win the Best actress award than Lily Gladstone.

 

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. It appears that you might be correct! It also appears that Emma Stone is becoming the favorite and adjusted Lily Gladstone's odds back to 2.10 from 1.45. What are the oddsmakers speculating on this? What caused this adjustment? Are they speculating that Emma Stone will win Bafta? I reckon Sandra Hüller might be the more popular vote for best actress in Bafta.

I speculate that if Sandra Hüller wins, the adjustment on the odds for her will be very big.

@Saint-loup. Emma Stone has a higher chance, however, only a small difference. Many things will change after the official voting for the winners on February 22-27. Information always leak and the oddsmakers are very quick to adjust.

[Rikafip]

@Rikafip. It appears that you might be correct! It also appears that Emma Stone is becoming the favorite and adjusted Lily Gladstone's odds back to 2.10 from 1.45. What are the oddsmakers speculating on this? What caused this adjustment? Are they speculating that Emma Stone will win Bafta? I reckon Sandra Hüller might be the more popular vote for best actress in Bafta.

Who knows, oodsmakers work in myserious ways. 

But seriously, the more I think about it, the more I am feel that Lily Gladstone wins the Oscar, despite the change in the odds. Maybe some of your pessimism spread on me as well.

I speculate that if Sandra Hüller wins, the adjustment on the odds for her will be very big.

Was like that in the past? I am asking because I can't remember if BAFTA affected Oscar odds that much as after all its UK award, not US which is very different and visible from the fact that they didn't even bother to nominate Lily Gladstone.

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. On bookmaking the Oscar awards, oddsmakers might adjust the odds based on rumors, information leaks or maybe how the top critics rate movies and performances. Poor Things was released late on 2023 because of the writers' strike in Hollywood. It might have taken a longer time for Poor Things' odds to be included in the bookmakers' adjustedment.

On Sandra Hüller, I am not quite sure. Also, another question would be how many actors and actresses that have won in Bafta, also won in the same category in the Oscars? I am quite surprised that Paul Giamatti's odds went from 12.00 to 2.90. This is a big adjustment.

[bbc.reporter]

I have a speculation that Oppenheimer will win most of their awards in Bafta and it might cause disappointment for the fans of this movie in the Oscars. The Oscars voters might vote differently and distribute the awards wider on the major categories.

I reckon if Christopher Nolan wins for best director then the best picture might go to The Holdovers. If someone else wins for best director then best actor will go to Paul Giamatti and best picture will go to Oppenheimer. It might be only one award for each movie for the major categories. The voters might avoid 2 or more to be won by the same movie.

[Rikafip]

Also, another question would be how many actors and actresses that have won in Bafta, also won in the same category in the Oscars?

Last year they had different winners in all actor categories while year before that (2022) the only one who won both Bafta and Oscar for same role was Will Smith for King Richard. So yeah, I guess its pretty common to have diferent winners.

I am quite surprised that Paul Giamatti's odds went from 12.00 to 2.90. This is a big adjustment.

Hah, that is indeed a big readjustment but even though I would like for him to win, betting on Cillian Murphy still makes more sesen. I just don't see how he looses an Oscar this year. 

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. However, if it is more common for the the Bafta best actor winner to be different from the Oscar best actor winner and also with this big readjustment on the odds, there might be an argument that Paul Giamatti certainly has a chance. But the chance to bet is gone already because 12.00 was more than the fair odds for Giamatti against Cillian Murphy.

On the odds for best movie, Poor Things has readjusted to 12.00 from 15.00.

In any case, I have bet on the Holdovers hehehe. Similar to what I have already mentioned, if Christopher Nolan was voted for best director, I speculate the voters will distribute the award for best picture to another movie. It will be a stronger argument if Cillian Murphy also wins for best actor.

The Holdovers might have 2 awards, best original screenplay and best picture.

[Rikafip]

and also with this big readjustment on the odds, there might be an argument that Paul Giamatti certainly has a chance. But the chance to bet is gone already because 12.00 was more than the fair odds for Giamatti against Cillian Murphy.

Yep. At these odds, I woulnd't put my money on Giamatti as risk to reward ratio ain't good anymore.

The Holdovers might have 2 awards, best original screenplay and best picture.

They might and I hope they will win at least one, but they might end up not getting neither of those two. I could see Anatomy of a Fall winning the one for best screenplay (I pefer The Holdovers, but I wouldn't mind anatomy winniner) and of course we all know who is the main favorite for the best picture one.

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. I would argue if it was in Bafta or a European award for best original screenplay, Anatomy of a fall would be the winner. However, in the Oscar awards where much of the voters are Americans, I reckon the odds being offered by the sportsbooks are implying the chances of Holdovers and Anatomy correctly.

If the Holdovers win best movie, this will be very much similar to Green Book and Coda heheh. I do not remember the social or political issues when these movies won, however, the voters wanted a feel good movie.

[bbc.reporter]

News update.

Christopher Nolan has won the award for best director in the Director's Guild Awards. This strengthens his chance to win the Oscar award for best director and this also might strengthen my speculation that the best picture might not be given to Nolan by the voters hehehe.

There might be some shaking heads, however, there were upsets that have occurred before in Oscar best picture predictions. These movies were Green Book, Moonlight, Parasite and CODA.



"Oppenheimer” director Christopher Nolan, Christopher Storer of FX’s “The Bear” and Peter Hoar of HBO’s “The Last of Us” were the top winners Saturday night at the Directors Guild of America‘s 76th annual DGA Awards.

The DGA win seals Nolan’s frontrunner position to land the director Oscar at the March 10 Academy Awards. Celine Song took home the DGA medallion for first-time director for her much-praised A24 drama “Past Lives.” “Guys, this is so amazing,” Song told the crowd.

Read in full https://variety.com/2024/film/awards/directors-guild-awards-winners-2024-list-1235901440/

[Rikafip]

This strengthens his chance to win the Oscar award for best director and this also might strengthen my speculation that the best picture might not be given to Nolan by the voters hehehe.

I don't understand why would that lower the chances for Oppenheimer to win Best Picture Oscar. Care to elaborate? 


In other news, BAFTA film awards were yesterday and as expected, Oppenheimer dominated with 7 awards, followed by Poor Things with 5, Zone of Interest with 3 and Holdovers with 2 awards. Here is the loist with all the winners https://www.theguardian.com/film/2024/feb/18/baftas-2024-the-complete-list-of-winners.

Interestingly, Anatomy of a Fall won the best original screenplay award while American Fiction (I finally saw it the other day and I liked it) won for the best adapted one.

[bbc.reporter]

This strengthens his chance to win the Oscar award for best director and this also might strengthen my speculation that the best picture might not be given to Nolan by the voters hehehe.

I don't understand why would that lower the chances for Oppenheimer to win Best Picture Oscar. Care to elaborate?  

I am only speculating that because we have witnessed that there were some years where the best picture winner for the Bafta and the Oscar awards were different then this might be one of those years. Also, because Oppenheimer is for certain win best actor and best director and other awards, I speculate that the voters might have something different for Christopher Nolan. He can win for best director or best picture, however, not the both of these categories heheheh. This year might be another unpredictable like CODA and Green Book.