Oscar Awards and movies bets and discussions

[Rikafip]

On Dune 3, he has already mentioned that the script is ready, however, he also mentioned that he wants to rest from the Dune universe and make another type movie. I speculate this to be Sicario 2. I also very much like to see this hehehe. I predict Dune 3 might arrive in 5 years.

Since rest of Dune books are pretty crappy (I mean after Messiah), no wonder that he is not interested in making more movies, and I hope no one else will. Regarding Sicario, I don't know if you missed it, but there is already Sicario 2, released back in 2018.

Btw, I saw yesterday Dune 2 for the 2nd time (decent rip is finally out) and I have to say that first part was still better for me. Good luck with your bet, but I think that chances of you winning are quite low and it will be a bad film year if that ends as a best movie we saw this year. Another thing that doesn't help it is the release date, which is way too early meaning it will be very expensive to create Oscar hype once again.

[Saint-loup]

I haven't been able to watch it last week because the movie screening time at the theater wasn't convenient for me (I saw The First Omen instead) but if you find it worse than the first opus, I think I won't wait to be able to watch it before betting lol. BBC are you still ok to bet against me? We can bet on another outcome about the movie with different odds, if you are less confident lol.

[bbc.reporter]

On Dune 3, he has already mentioned that the script is ready, however, he also mentioned that he wants to rest from the Dune universe and make another type movie. I speculate this to be Sicario 2. I also very much like to see this hehehe. I predict Dune 3 might arrive in 5 years.

Since rest of Dune books are pretty crappy (I mean after Messiah), no wonder that he is not interested in making more movies, and I hope no one else will. Regarding Sicario, I don't know if you missed it, but there is already Sicario 2, released back in 2018.

Btw, I saw yesterday Dune 2 for the 2nd time (decent rip is finally out) and I have to say that first part was still better for me. Good luck with your bet, but I think that chances of you winning are quite low and it will be a bad film year if that ends as a best movie we saw this year. Another thing that doesn't help it is the release date, which is way too early meaning it will be very expensive to create Oscar hype once again.

I reckon this Sicario Rise of the soldado was not the real Sicario 2 that Denis Villenueve would have created. This Rise of the soldado is a frighfully ugly created movie to continue the story of Sicario. There are rumors that Denis Villenueve will fix this with Sicario: Capo. This is an unconfirmed rumor, however.

@Saint-loup. Yes of course hehehehehe! We agree I bet $50 and you bet $500 for the terms of the bet that has been mentioned? I will make it less painful for you heheheheeh.

[Rikafip]

I reckon this Sicario Rise of the soldado was not the real Sicario 2 that Denis Villenueve would have created. This Rise of the soldado is a frighfully ugly created movie to continue the story of Sicario.

Keep in mind that original Sicario was not only Villenueve's movie, screenwriter Taylor Sheridan (who also wrote sequel) also played a big part in that movie success.

There are rumors that Denis Villenueve will fix this with Sicario: Capo. This is an unconfirmed rumor, however.

That would be a bad move imho, as chances of making a good 3rd part are very slim.

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. Agreed. Tyler Sheridan also directed a good action movie about the rape and death of an American Indian teenager, Wind River starring Hawkeye and the Scarletwitch from the Avengers hehhe. Sicario 2 producers have certainly made a mistake on hiring the Italian spaghetti western director to direct Sicario 2. Tyler Sheridan might have been better for this, I reckon.

I will remove 2024 from the title and keep this thread unlocked for my bet against @Saint-loup.

[Rikafip]

Tyler Sheridan also directed a good action movie about the rape and death of an American Indian teenager, Wind River starring Hawkeye and the Scarletwitch from the Avengers hehhe.

Yeah I saw it. He is also behind some excellent movies and series and he is one the rare creators currently active that I follow and bascially watch anything he makes.

Sicario 2 producers have certainly made a mistake on hiring the Italian spaghetti western director to direct Sicario 2. Tyler Sheridan might have been better for this, I reckon.

My guess is that Solimma got hired due his work on Gomorra (which is an excellent series that I recommend), but sequels are always tricky and almost nmever as good as the originals. For that reason I woulnd't like to see 3rd Sicario part, even if Villeneuve comes back to direct it.

[cabron]

Tyler Sheridan also directed a good action movie about the rape and death of an American Indian teenager, Wind River starring Hawkeye and the Scarletwitch from the Avengers hehhe.

Yeah I saw it. He is also behind some excellent movies and series and he is one the rare creators currently active that I follow and bascially watch anything he makes.

Sicario 2 producers have certainly made a mistake on hiring the Italian spaghetti western director to direct Sicario 2. Tyler Sheridan might have been better for this, I reckon.

My guess is that Solimma got hired due his work on Gomorra (which is an excellent series that I recommend), but sequels are always tricky and almost nmever as good as the originals. For that reason I woulnd't like to see 3rd Sicario part, even if Villeneuve comes back to direct it.

Tyler Sheridan deserves a win. I watched the Yellow Stone series after he was interviewed by Joe Rogan Podcast telling some trivial facts about the craziest laws in history.  I think most of his films are based on what's going on in Indian reservations. Just like that Wind River. That podcast is worth watching by the way.

The Dune 2 is indeed a flop. I first watched the first on Netflix, it was better.  I thought it would end like Monster Hunter but disappointing in the end.

[Rikafip]

Tyler Sheridan deserves a win.

Win for what exactly?

The Dune 2 is indeed a flop. I first watched the first on Netflix, it was better.

While I agree that first part is better movie, I don't think that 2nd part is flop by any metric. Both critics and public like it, while it managed to make almost $700 million, against ~$200 million that was spent. On top of that, it will receive more than a few Oscar nominations and probably win at least few (mostly those in tehncial categories).

I thought it would end like Monster Hunter but disappointing in the end.

What's the point comparing it with another movie? Especially since its a movie based on books so its not like they can (or should) change the end dramatically.

[bbc.reporter]

The first odds for the category best movie have been submitted by the oddsmakers. We should also be very much aware that this will not be the final odds because the official nominations for each category will be announced on January. My favorite movie Dune 2 appears to have a lower chance than I have speculated heheheheh.

This is presently top 10 according to their odds.

The Brutalist 3.25
Anora 4.35
Sing Sing 5.00
Emilia Perez 6.00
Dune 2 7.00
Blitz 8.00
Conclave 11.00
The Room Next Door 13.00
The Life Of Chuck 13.00
Saturday Night 13.00

Source https://duelbits.com/en/sportsbook/special/simple_tournament/156107

[bbc.reporter]

The season for the Oscar awards will begin on December 9!

December 9 – Shortlists Voting Opens
December 13 – Shortlists Voting Closes
December 17 – Shortlists Announced
January 8 – Nominations Voting Opens
January 12 – Nominations Voting Closes
January 17 – Nominations Announced
February 11 – Final Voting Opens
February 18 – Final Voting Closes
March 2 – Oscar Awards ceremony

@Rikafip. Have watched the movies that might be included in the nominations?

[Rikafip]

@Rikafip. Have watched the movies that might be included in the nominations?

Sorry for the very late reply. I planned to do it once I got TG notification, but I was distracted by something else and here I am month later. Anyway, I've been very busy this year (especially in the 2nd part so I didn't watch many movies that might end among the nominees (Conclave was one of them, but imho it is overrated).

The main reason for this bump is Golden Globes award that happened the other night, that may affect Oscar odds. Biggest winner of the night was Brutalist that won the main categories, but no movie dominated the awards completely. No awards for Dune.  

Link with all the winners https://www.cbsnews.com/news/golden-globes-winners-2025-list/

[Saint-loup]

The list of nominees of the Oscar Awards 2025 has been released few hours ago. Denis Villeneuve is not nominated for the Oscar of the Best Director for Dune: Part Two, and the movie is neither nominated in the Best adapted screenplay category.
@bbc.reporter you could be happy to have saved $50. What you will do with them? Are you interested in betting on another outcome? Best picture, Best actor, Best actress,... I think Demi Moore will win the Best actress award for The Substance (even if the last half-hour of the film is completely ridiculous sadly)

Best picture
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“I’m Still Here”
“Nickel Boys”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”

Best actor in a leading role
Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”

Best actress in a leading role
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”

Best actor in a supporting role
Yura Borisov, “Anora”
Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”
Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”

Best actress in a supporting role
Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”
Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”

Best director
Sean Baker, “Anora”
Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”

Best cinematography
“The Brutalist”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Maria”
“Nosferatu”

Best international feature film
“I’m Still Here”
“The Girl with the Needle”
“Emilia Pérez”
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
“Flow”

Best adapted screenplay
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Nickel Boys”
“Sing Sing”

Best original screenplay
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“A Real Pain”
“September 5”
“The Substance”

Best live action short film
“A Lien”
“Anuja”
“I’m Not a Robot”
“The Last Ranger”
“A Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”

Best animated short film
“Beautiful Men”
“In the Shadow of the Cypress”
“Magic Candies”
“Wander to Wonder”
“Yuck!”

Best animated feature film
“Flow”
“Inside Out 2”
“Memoir of a Snail”
“Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
“The Wild Robot”

Best documentary short
“Death By Numbers”
“I Am Ready, Warden”
“Incident”
“Instruments of a Beating Heart”
“The Only Girl in the Orchestra”

Best documentary feature film
“Black Box Diaries”
“No Other Land”
“Porcelain War”
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”
“Sugarcane”

Best original song
“El Mal,” from “Emilia Pérez”
“The Journey,” from “The Six Triple Eight”
“Like a Bird,” from “Sing Sing”
“Mi Camino,” from “Emilia Pérez”
“Never Too Late,” from “Elton John: Never Too Late”

Best original score
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Wicked”
“The Wild Robot”

Best makeup and hairstyling
“A Different Man”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Nosferatu”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”

Best costume design
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Gladiator II”
“Nosferatu”
“Wicked”

Best editing
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Wicked”

Best sound
“A Complete Unknown”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Wicked”
“The Wild Robot”

Best production design
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Nosferatu”
“Wicked”

Best visual effects
“Alien: Romulus”
“Better Man”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
“Wicked”

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/23/entertainment/oscar-nominations-academy-awards/index.html

Yes if Dune 2 does not win all of the 3 categories on best picture, best director and best adapted screenplay, I lose the bet. If Dune 2 is also not officially nominated on the same categories for best picture, best director and best adapted screenplay you can collect your money immediately.

[STT]

Nice set of films I have to get through to bet on this, or is it better not to have a strong opinion and trade off the odds impartially.   My first wild guess hoping to bet would be “Gladiator II” for costume, this does depend on the odds easily available.  My reasoning is it was not a popular sequel with many people & the original is an all time classic for multiple reasons so hard to beat; however the story line and overall film is a seperate consideration from the production quality and I think the quality was there for a win.

[ChiBitCTy]

I know we are discussing 2024 here, but so far if things keep up they way they are going, American Primeval is going to win some serious awards. I've only finished 2 of 6 episodes so far, but it's that good and that powerful that I won't even watch the rest until I'm feeling 100% (bit tired and under the weather of late).  In 2024 when it came to series, the Penguin was my personal favorite and I think it's got a real chance of bringing some awards home.  Movie wise, I just have no idea.

[mcdouglasx]

Without a doubt, I would bet on 'The Brutalist' sweeping the Oscars this year in the main categories: best picture, best actor, and director. Starring the esteemed actor Adrien Brody, who has left us with masterpieces in his performances. Although 'The Brutalist' runs a little over 3 and a half hours, everything points to it being a total success.

I remember when Adrien played Luca Changretta in the series Peaky Blinders, it was epic!.

[Rikafip]

My first wild guess hoping to bet would be “Gladiator II” for costume, this does depend on the odds easily available.  My reasoning is it was not a popular sequel with many people & the original is an all time classic for multiple reasons so hard to beat; however the story line and overall film is a seperate consideration from the production quality and I think the quality was there for a win.

Having seen few other movies nominated in this category (Nosferatu and Wicked), I would say that both of those are favorite over Gladiator, but will be interesting to see what bookies have to say about that.

I know we are discussing 2024 here, but so far if things keep up they way they are going, American Primeval is going to win some serious awards. I've only finished 2 of 6 episodes so far, but it's that good and that powerful that I won't even watch the rest until I'm feeling 100% (bit tired and under the weather of late).  In 2024 when it came to series, the Penguin was my personal favorite and I think it's got a real chance of bringing some awards home.  Movie wise, I just have no idea.

American Primeval is series and therefore not eligible for Oscar award. I woulnd't be surprised if it wins some Golden Globes awards though.

Overall, 2024 has been a pretty weak year, and it looks like each year is getting weaker and weaker...

[bbc.reporter]

The list of nominees of the Oscar Awards 2025 has been released few hours ago. Denis Villeneuve is not nominated for the Oscar of the Best Director for Dune: Part Two, and the movie is neither nominated in the Best adapted screenplay category.
@bbc.reporter you could be happy to have saved $50. What you will do with them? Are you interested in betting on another outcome? Best picture, Best actor, Best actress,... I think Demi Moore will win the Best actress award for The Substance (even if the last half-hour of the film is completely ridiculous sadly)

Similar to what I have mentioned before, this $50 bet would very much be a donation heheheh. I only wanted to bet because I very much liked the movie very much! I might have watched this more than 100 times already! I am not making a joke hehehehe.

In any case, I have not watched many movies for this season's Oscar awards. I have been paying more attention on the Donald's presidential campaign and the occurrences on the cryptospace. What is everyone's favorite speculations for best movie, best director, best adapted and original screenplay and other categories?

[Rikafip]

What is everyone's favorite speculations for best movie

I haven't seen it yet (I can't spare 3.5 hours at the moment) but The Brutalist is the obvious favorite in that category.

best director,

My money will be on Sean Baker for Anora, even though I think that film is overrated.

best adapted

Conclave. Another overrated film.


By the way, it seems that one Croatian movie is favorite in best short film category. If we win, it would be our first Oscar win since independence. If anyone can spare ~13 minutes, you can watch the whole movie The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent completely legally here. Its based on a true story btw, during war in Bosnia.

[jstyler]

I'm not surprised about The Brutalist being a favorite for best movie, I thought it was a strong contender too. However, I'm also stoked to see Conclave getting some buzz for best adapted screenplay, great direction and writing there. And that Croatian short film, The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent, is getting a lot of love, I'll have to check it out once I have some time.

[Rikafip]

Hah, I see no one even shared Oscar winners from the last night. No surprise that there's not much interest in eat seeing how this award is becoming less and less relevant year after year.

Regarding the winners, there were no  many surprises there, with one of the bigger ones probably Anora winning best picture of the year even though Brutalist was favorite. Pretty weak year overall, without a single movie that will be remembered in let's say 10 years.

Anyway, here is the link with all the winners https://www.theguardian.com/film/2025/mar/02/oscars-academy-awards-winners-live