CZ's view on Halving

[EarnOnVictor]

I came across a feed today that shares the view of the Binance CEO on halving and I thought I should share it with you guys as I see it informative and no information is too small.



I can't agree more on this as part of what he states is happening now. The "chatter, news, anxiety, expectations, hype, hope" and speculation are now littering the internet.

Insightfully, this also advises calm and a need not to miss out at the same time for at least a full year.

[Z-tight]

This isn't CZ's view on the BTC halving, this is the common knowledge or view about BTC halving based on past events, and any person who spends a little time to read about the halving and what happens before or after the halving would know this. If history repeats itself, which it usually does, it could follow the same pattern again.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

Either this is coming from CZ or not, halving is going to take place next year and obviously almost all the three items listed above are coming to pass, though am also surprised that cz is talking like this for the first time not considering his own interests first being an exchange or introducing something that could help distract people to invest on his Binance coin, alot of people have been giving their own side view also concerning halving and if this is all coming from CZ, then i think he's less considerate about himself this time.

[Oshosondy]

I saw this on the news few months ago: 

https://cointelegraph.com/news/binance-ceo-cz-predicts-next-bitcoin-bull-run

It was about CZ predicting bitcoin price after bull run. That was July 5th.

CZ is right but that is all we all know on this forum and not new to us. But probably this can encourage the novices to invest in bitcoin some weeks or months before halving.

[mk4]

Whatever he described is pretty much what happened in the past, but I think it will be similar — probably with just a quite-delayed step #3; simply because bitcoin holders are betting too much on the #3 part that I think it will be decently delayed.

[salad daging]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/binance-ceo-cz-predicts-next-bitcoin-bull-run
It was about CZ predicting bitcoin price after bull run. That was July 5th.

The article states about CZ that the next most likely bullish year is 2025, which is very relevant and suggests that this guess is very much in line with some other influential people.

CZ is right but that is all we all know on this forum and not new to us. But probably this can encourage the novices to invest in bitcoin some weeks or months before halving.

Any news from outside will be widely discussed on the forum and indeed this is not new considering many speculations guessing the same year.
Encouraging beginners to invest from now on is important for their awareness before it's too late and into the halving year although I suppose after that there is still time for them to keep investing.

[Raflesia]

Even though it was said directly by the CZ account, but looking at the overall picture that he said this was only a big picture of some of the things that happened from several previous halvings so it was quite natural that he said that because indeed from several halvings that he had always felt before it became an experience and what he said was based on what we had felt from several halvings that occurred.

I think regardless of whether it's CZ or not everyone who has experienced the halving and lived through it to this day will talk the same way because it is something like this but indeed on the other hand for part of the hype, expectations and news anxiety etc. things like that we cannot prevent even if it is said to be dirty but still we will still deal with it.

[digaran]

Have you asked this question?, if people already know that price will hit ATH several times after halving, why aren't they buying right now? Answer is really easy, they don't want to risk it, everybody is just waiting for the hype to start so they can ride the waves and earn max profits.


Anyways it's not recommended to use or at least hold any amount of crypto in centralized exchanges. Don't forget that.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Unfortunately, many people do not realize that subsequent halvings, from a fundamental point of view, have less and less impact on the price, and on the other hand, it is already becoming a large and significant asset tossed around by external forces such as wars, economic crises, etc.

1st halving was important. It reduced monetary inflation from 25% to 12%. Thats a big deal. Second halving decreased monetary inflation from 9% to 4,5%. Now we are getting closer and closer to the 4th halving that will reduce bitcoin monetary inflation from like 1.5% to 0.7%. Both numbers are negligible compared to 8% official CPI in US, 10% in EU or 80% in countries like Turkey. So my bet is that halvings fundamental impact on bitcoin price is getting lower and lower with every next halving in oppose to macro data, FED decisions, interest rates, recessions etc. Bitcoin will be more like an asset that act sometimes like gold on steroids sometimes like sp500 on steroids rather than it will fallow "bubble x days before each halving scheme"

So, in my opinion, a scenario is possible in which bitcoin will behave unexpectedly, because for example the news that China intends to keep part of its reserves in bitcoin so as not to have to buy American bonds. Such news will pump price in 2024 and after halving period will be "take profit time" instead of massive pump.

[rhomelmabini]

Well, past halving histories never disappoints the ATH stuff. For me the predictability is present but what if we're wrong this time and what if we just experience stability in price and not some ATH? If we're about to see new ATH by 2024-2025 then I'd say we  better position right now.

[franky1]

the reason why (2&3) is simple
mining farms do not pay daily bills to need to sell daily.
instead they mine and hoard seasonally

before even mining they contract in bulk deals of asics for a 2 year life cycle and also they dont pay daily/weekly electric but buy allotments of GW at a preferred bulk price to cover 2 years of continual mining

because they bought 2 years of running. it doesnt matter what the markets do daily. they have 2 years to mine so there is no point stopping/starting or pool jumping to altcoins to play the markets. they just continually mine no matter what and then count up the coins rewarded at the nd of the season

it is at the end of these contracts where they negotiate the next seasons deal where they then look at the amount of coin they hoarded vs cost vs market price to then calculate the value they need to continue operation. it is at this point that they will move the market to meet their expectations

this is usually done a year before a halving and a year after halving
which is why the historic patterns show the start of a bull is the year before halving and the end of the bull peaks a year after the halving

however. market traders know this pattern and will take opportunity to fight the pattern for maximum gain, so this pattern may not continue as expected because other traders expecting the pattern will trade against it for their benefit

[floridaman86]

I posted this on another thread, but it seems more appropriate here.
It seems to be pretty neutral at the moment. But everyone seems to  think that the halving next year will trigger a massive bull rally, and this confuses me.
If everyone already knows about the halving, the wouldn't it be baked in? I seem to be the only one that thinks it ain't gonna make a difference in the price

[Sim_card]

CZ is talking from his experience, and anyone that has experience previous halving already know that this is what happens close to the halving and after the halving. I believe that the past three halving, bitcoin followed the same pattern and this next one wouldn't be different, history will be repeated again. Everyone is waiting patiently and watching how the market is moving to see if there will be much expectations from the halving, and maybe that is when more nocoiners will start buying, when they are carried away by the hype. Just keep on accumulating and forget about whatever anyone is saying about the next bull run because bitcoin price will shock a lot of people.

[abel1337]

I have the same experience as CZ had. It maybe a common knowledge for those people who are in crypto space for long but for newbies it's not. Maybe the goal why CZ posted this is because he want to educate newbies or those who didn't know about this info. This can motivate them into investing into bitcoin as early as now and not expect a sudden jump in price after the halving. It's a good information that newbies should learn.

[Zaguru12]

Have you asked this question?, if people already know that price will hit ATH several times after halving, why aren't they buying right now? Answer is really easy, they don't want to risk it, everybody is just waiting for the hype to start so they can ride the waves and earn max profits.

It could also be that people are waiting for deep fall in price first before they would accumulate more bitcoin. Just like how the past histories or trend have shown that bitcoin hits a new ATH like a year after halving so is the case of it getting to lower price before the halving. Some even predicted that the last quarter of this years would experience the price low of about $20k less and some people are actually waiting for the right time.

But waiting for the price to go down before buying isn’t a wise move but rather using the DCA method to accumulate whenever you have the funds ready. This way you don’t get to wait for an opportunity that is not certain of happening.

For me the predictability is present but what if we're wrong this time and what if we just experience stability in price and not some ATH?

This can be possible considering the events surrounding the price movement of late. I’m the past years the last month August and September are usually filled with red lines but this year’s we experienced something of a stable price with slight movement. So even if the market trend changes a bit after next halving I wouldn’t be too surprised, the only thing is I am hodling till my target gets reached

[ColdLava40]

CZ is very right. I think new people have joined the crypto verse within the last 4 years, which literally means that large numbers of crypto ethusiast don't have halving experience. Halving news is gonna get more hotter as we drive closer to the very moment, which will put more pressure in the market, making most people want to buy more Bitcoin.

[Asuspawer09]

I came across a feed today that shares the view of the Binance CEO on halving and I thought I should share it with you guys as I see it informative and no information is too small.



I can't agree more on this as part of what he states is happening now. The "chatter, news, anxiety, expectations, hype, hope" and speculation are now littering the internet.

Insightfully, this also advises calm and a need not to miss out at the same time for at least a full year.

Exactly what i am saying to this Bitcoin halving event stuff, and based on my experience as well when we are near the halving we are probably going to see a small pump just because it is for sure going to be trending and there will be a small hype about the Bitcoin halving event but it wasn't really going to be crazy I guess investors or newbies are just starting to think about it that they really needed to accumulate or invest on Bitcoin because the event is already near so that they could easily earn a profit in case the market price skyrocket.

the second one is on the actual event there will be no crazy skyrocket price at that time because probably the hype was already calm because the market price already increased a lot when the event is just near, investors are going to realize that the market is not really having a lot of movement making the traders afraid and sell their investment. After that, most of the time a year around that time is probably where the actual Bull Run could hit because it is probably where the actual effect of the event is going to be felt.

[philipma1957]

Well, past halving histories never disappoints the ATH stuff. For me the predictability is present but what if we're wrong this time and what if we just experience stability in price and not some ATH? If we're about to see new ATH by 2024-2025 then I'd say we  better position right now.

If we go flat mining will leave in droves.

A 30 watt miner doing 100th burns 75 kwatts so at five cents it costs 3.75 to run it.

it is earning 6 a day. so it makes  2.25

when ½ ing  comes it earns 3 and burns 3.5 a loss of 50 cents

So if we go flat and hit the ½ at 27k miners will shut down.

and “this time it is different” would be true.

[EFS]

CZ is very right. I think new people have joined the crypto verse within the last 4 years, which literally means that large numbers of crypto ethusiast don't have halving experience. Halving news is gonna get more hotter as we drive closer to the very moment, which will put more pressure in the market, making most people want to buy more Bitcoin.

Only time will tell if he's right or wrong. What happened in the past is no guarantee of what will happen in the future. The same situation can produce different results because there are many different variables. What CZ said is generally what is expected, but this doesn't mean that it will definitely happen again. The actions of those who entered the market in recent years and have a few coins aren't very important. What is more important is what those who hold large amounts of coins and have the possibility of influencing the market will do.

[lombok]

Have you asked this question?, if people already know that price will hit ATH several times after halving, why aren't they buying right now? Answer is really easy, they don't want to risk it, everybody is just waiting for the hype to start so they can ride the waves and earn max profits.

It could also be that people are waiting for deep fall in price first before they would accumulate more bitcoin. Just like how the past histories or trend have shown that bitcoin hits a new ATH like a year after halving so is the case of it getting to lower price before the halving. Some even predicted that the last quarter of this years would experience the price low of about $20k less and some people are actually waiting for the right time.

But waiting for the price to go down before buying isn’t a wise move but rather using the DCA method to accumulate whenever you have the funds ready. This way you don’t get to wait for an opportunity that is not certain of happening.

Many speculate that the price will touch the 17k-20k area before the halving occurs. And this is fine, because the price could move there and we don't know what will happen, considering the wild movements of BTC, this makes sense too.

Buying DCA on the spot market is very effective for current and new traders or potential investors. So even if we buy at the current price and in a week or 2-3 months BTC's price drops it won't be a problem, because we will get the lowest average price too.

For me the predictability is present but what if we're wrong this time and what if we just experience stability in price and not some ATH?

This can be possible considering the events surrounding the price movement of late. I’m the past years the last month August and September are usually filled with red lines but this year’s we experienced something of a stable price with slight movement. So even if the market trend changes a bit after next halving I wouldn’t be too surprised, the only thing is I am hodling till my target gets reached

https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/how-many-bitcoins-are-there/
Is the movement of BTC no longer like previous history in the months and years before the halving because Bitcoin has been mined and circulating at 19,513,706.25 or 92,922% of its total supply? So it tends to be stable, and able to make history differently this time? several other factors are also able to influence BTC price movements, for example Bitcoin ETF, War, Economic Crisis, Energy Crisis, Policy, Adoption.