CZ's view on Halving

[BenCodie]

This isn't CZ's view on the BTC halving, this is the common knowledge or view about BTC halving based on past events, and any person who spends a little time to read about the halving and what happens before or after the halving would know this. If history repeats itself, which it usually does, it could follow the same pattern again.

CZ has a habit if making obvious observations on twitter, as he knows his audience will relate to it and then respect him more. CZs respect is inflated and this is actually one of the reasons why...he is a smart marketer.

The amount of damage this guy has done to the market (but also a lot of good) is what should be in focus, but no one wants to do that research, and even less people want to care about the research if it were to be released

Sigh...the meme generation - low attention, no care of anything that takes more than  5 seconds to understand.

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[Lucius]

Plus just because there's a "halving", which limits the supply side, it doesn't truly mean that it will increase the demand side. Would Bitcoin really surge in a recession environment simply because the inflation per block was cut in half?
We should also take the money printer into consideration.
As observed in this chart, the movement of Bitcoin went with the positive year on year growth of the global money supply, as well as the negative contraction year on year.

Although the halving makes Bitcoin more scarce, and therefore "more precious", the demand side is also as important.

It is a completely logical question, but at the moment no one can answer that question because no one can know what the future brings us. There are two options, the first of which includes that history will repeat itself no matter what and that we will have another big bull run, and the second is that we will break the tradition and that the four-year cycle will become a thing of the past.

I personally believe that the bull run will happen as it was the case in the past, we just need to remember that the last bull run produced an ATH that only exceeded the last ATH by 3.5 times, and it is possible that the next one will be smaller than that. Of course, I'm saying all this without taking into account the possible approval of the spot ETF in the US, whether it happens at the beginning of 2024 or 2025 is actually not too important.

[Rikafip]

There are two options, the first of which includes that history will repeat itself no matter what and that we will have another big bull run, and the second is that we will break the tradition and that the four-year cycle will become a thing of the past.

Since we already broke one tradition (bitcoin going below the all time high in the previous bull run), I think that we should prepare ourselves fot the possibility of delayed bull run.

I personally believe that the bull run will happen as it was the case in the past, we just need to remember that the last bull run produced an ATH that only exceeded the last ATH by 3.5 times, and it is possible that the next one will be smaller than that.

Consdieting the current situation int the world, I would be very surprised if bitcoin performs at the similar level of the previous bull run. After all, its only natural that ROI keeps getting smaller as the bitcoin price keeps going up. I would personally be more than happy with let's say 2x from the previous ATH.

Of course, I'm saying all this without taking into account the possible approval of the spot ETF in the US, whether it happens at the beginning of 2024 or 2025 is actually not too important.

You expect it to have such a big impact on bitcoin price?

[OgNasty]

He definitely speaks from experience and I think those of us that have been around for a few cycles are expecting the same thing. There’s a bit of hesitation in wondering if the market can really keep doing the exact same thing every four years, but until it doesn’t (with no FTX like evil actors) then I’ll be a believer and investor.

[Lucius]

Of course, I'm saying all this without taking into account the possible approval of the spot ETF in the US, whether it happens at the beginning of 2024 or 2025 is actually not too important.

You expect it to have such a big impact on bitcoin price?

Did you see what the fake news about the SEC approving the BTC ETF to BlackRock did? I was quite skeptical about the price effect such an ETF would have because I thought all these investors could buy BTC without it, but when you look at all these companies involved in it, we are talking about $15+ trillion under management just from BlackRock and Fidelity and it is logical to assume that part of these funds will be directed towards Bitcoin.

In addition, the effect on the price is hidden in the fact that these funds have to buy actual BTC in order to be able to sell shares in these funds, which means that the demand will surely increase. In the event that the effects of the halving coincide with the approval of the SEC (and they will not be able to say no indefinitely), the perfect situation for a big bull run would be created.

Consdieting the current situation int the world, I would be very surprised if bitcoin performs at the similar level of the previous bull run. After all, its only natural that ROI keeps getting smaller as the bitcoin price keeps going up. I would personally be more than happy with let's say 2x from the previous ATH.

I would also be quite happy with some $150k as the next ATH, especially if we consider that it is more than x5 of the current price which should definitely be taken into account.

[Rikafip]

Did you see what the fake news about the SEC approving the BTC ETF to BlackRock did?

Yeah I saw the pump and dump, but next time when it happens I don't think that its going to be that big (at least not in the short term) as price didn't come back to the one before that fake news meaning people are really expecting it.

I was quite skeptical about the price effect such an ETF would have because I thought all these investors could buy BTC without it, but when you look at all these companies involved in it, we are talking about $15+ trillion under management just from BlackRock and Fidelity and it is logical to assume that part of these funds will be directed towards Bitcoin.

That's true. I mean, I don't wanna sound pesimistic, but I just don't wanna hype myself and then be disappointed when it happens and that doesn't affect the price as much as I hoped it will.

I would also be quite happy with some $150k as the next ATH, especially if we consider that it is more than x5 of the current price which should definitely be taken into account.

I am consistently underestimating future BTC price so I hope that I am wrong/too cautious this time as well and we see even bigger pump. But even if that doesn't happen, $150k would be quite nice.

[serveria.com]

I am consistently underestimating future BTC price so I hope that I am wrong/too cautious this time as well and we see even bigger pump. But even if that doesn't happen, $150k would be quite nice.

With me it's the other way round: I constantly overestimate future BTC prices. But Bitcoin can't go parabolic all the time. It has to slow down at some point. Just think - if BTC = 1.000.0000 it just can't do another x20 and jump directly to 20.000.000 per coin in a single title. So I think x2 to x3 can be considered great performance for the next cycle.

[Sophokles]

He is experienced in this field and we should not take his statement lightly. There are many things that this time won't be like the previous one. BTC won't make an all time high which it did in every cycle after halving. Bitcoin gains popularity faster than every other top entity in the market so it makes many people nervous to think this will last forever. I totally agree with what CZ said and expect a similar scenario.

[DaNNy001]

He definitely speaks from experience and I think those of us that have been around for a few cycles are expecting the same thing. There’s a bit of hesitation in wondering if the market can really keep doing the exact same thing every four years, but until it doesn’t (with no FTX like evil actors) then I’ll be a believer and investor.

I think same expectations lie with those of us that have been actually reading and also currently holding a significant amount of Bitcoin. Even if you have not around all this while I think you can also be on same page as others concerning the whole Bitcoin halving discussion and the effects of the bull showing up after the halving. Currently now in the crypto both newbies , amateur and also veteran Bitcoin enthusiast are all curios on the possible faith of Bitcoin come the time of the halving and also it's passing.

[icalical]

CZ got his points, but that's not unique, it's based on the history of how market reacts to halving, and many people said the same. Tho with the current economic condition and people have more experience on the effect of halving and how Bitcoin market react to it, I doubt people will are still hoping that Bitcoin will double the price immediately after halving, most of Bitcoin speculators should already learn that Bitcoin halving effect on the market is not instant. And the thus could also make the time frame when Bitcoin will reach new ATH after the halving, probably longer than just a year.

He is also playing safe with his pieces of advice to people. Because he is one of the popular personalities to whom people looked up to in this market, he's being conservative with his views. But those simple statements are actually valuable if you internalize its importance when it comes to your decisions with what you will do with your porftolio.

Yes sure, I understand that part why he was playing safe, he is the founder of Binance, so every statements he makes will affect people views on Binance. Though I would expect something more original and valuable opinion from someone at his calibre, and for if he doesn't actually have a more valuable opinion, he doesn't need to write such generic and redundant opinion.

[Dunamisx]

He definitely speaks from experience and I think those of us that have been around for a few cycles are expecting the same thing. There’s a bit of hesitation in wondering if the market can really keep doing the exact same thing every four years, but until it doesn’t (with no FTX like evil actors) then I’ll be a believer and investor.

I think same expectations lie with those of us that have been actually reading and also currently holding a significant amount of Bitcoin. Even if you have not around all this while I think you can also be on same page as others concerning the whole Bitcoin halving discussion and the effects of the bull showing up after the halving. Currently now in the crypto both newbies , amateur and also veteran Bitcoin enthusiast are all curios on the possible faith of Bitcoin come the time of the halving and also it's passing.

Once we are approaching the time of halving like this, everyone seems to be more skeptical about what may be the results in this we all are into, let's forget about what CZ may say or not and face the reality of what we know concerning this, since we are all into it altogether, for the fact that halving is near the corner doesn't mean some will still not loose, it may only differs from each other because as some are making profits others may be loosing, they are the categories that fall under influencers like CZ.

[arabspaceship123]

I'd be happy if it's going to exceed x5 of the current bitcoin price. I'm not expecting it to go in that route but if it happens we'll say it's analysis was perfection. What's going to happen if halving won't bring pumps. If nervous investors sell after halving it's going to send the market down so I'm not optimistic.

I would also be quite happy with some $150k as the next ATH, especially if we consider that it is more than x5 of the current price which should definitely be taken into account.

[bayu7adi]

I totally agree with what CZ said and expect a similar scenario.

I see it as a double-edged sword, where, if the majority's expectations post-halving go unmet or their perception turns negative, we may witness the opposite effect – a massive sell-off of BTC. The psychology of money-seeking individuals is rooted in their reluctance to be caught at a high BTC price, thus giving rise to extraordinary fear.

However, should the majority of the Bitcoin community's expectations be met, or even exceeded, the market could experience a positive sentiment that propels BTC's price to a new all-time high.

So, the certainty of a new ATH after the halving remains uncertain. The current public expectations are significant, and what is most feared is if the market cannot meet these expectations, leading to a price dump that leaves the BTC market in turmoil.

[goldkingcoiner]

Why do we need CZ's view on the halving? Sure, he has his exchange, but he is a trading software dev. Not a Bitcoin expert.

Nobody should be placing such large amounts of trust in the words of the rich and famous. The words of an expert in Bitcoin would weigh much more than that of an expert in developing trading software. Honestly, if you ask me, DeFI is a better alternative- if you absolutely need to daytrade. Slightly more expensive, sure. But no KYC.

And all you have to do for that is ask someone on Bitcointalk.org.

Lotta tech and finance experts here who can explain the halving and its effects in much brighter detail.

[ancafe]

I can't agree more on this as part of what he states is happening now. The "chatter, news, anxiety, expectations, hype, hope" and speculation are now littering the internet.

Insightfully, this also advises calm and a need not to miss out at the same time for at least a full year.

This is almost the same as the last halving and what it conveys may be slightly similar despite the difference in the month or date of the halving. This is also a big picture regarding the previous halving and of course CZ has been observing it for a long time because he is also one of the exchange owners who must understand the bitcoin side much better than us. CZ also has an advantage if speak something about bitcoin has a truth value above 80% because it will encourage new people who enter the exchange to be more motivated.

If this is true, it is CZ's analysis, perhaps he is trying to talk from the perspective of his experience as happened during the previous halving. Of course there is a positive value when an exchange owner understands the journey of bitcoin as one of the best because how can anyone believe in him if he is a nobody in the industry.

[Trawda]

CZ is an experienced market guy with a great eye so I agree with his point of view on what happens before and after halving.
As he said, people have a small memory and forget the past quickly and repeat the same mistakes every time.

[Iranus]

I totally agree with what CZ said and expect a similar scenario.

I see it as a double-edged sword, where, if the majority's expectations post-halving go unmet or their perception turns negative, we may witness the opposite effect – a massive sell-off of BTC. The psychology of money-seeking individuals is rooted in their reluctance to be caught at a high BTC price, thus giving rise to extraordinary fear.

However, should the majority of the Bitcoin community's expectations be met, or even exceeded, the market could experience a positive sentiment that propels BTC's price to a new all-time high.

So, the certainty of a new ATH after the halving remains uncertain. The current public expectations are significant, and what is most feared is if the market cannot meet these expectations, leading to a price dump that leaves the BTC market in turmoil.

I don't see anything to worry about if the price doesn't increase after the halving. All financial markets are no different than battlefields, so you shouldn't expect bitcoin to be any easier than other markets. In any financial market, there will only be a few winners and profits, the rest will lose money. Therefore, it is important in investing that we need to have a strategy and plan for every situation, do not be too subjective or believe that everything will always repeat or happen as we expect. I would not be surprised or disappointed if the bear season lasts longer or the market becomes more turmoil before the bull season actually takes place.

[LogitechMouse]

Why do we need CZ's view on the halving? Sure, he has his exchange, but he is a trading software dev. Not a Bitcoin expert.

Freedom of speech? We are in in the internet world LOL. Anybody can say whatever they want. Did you just used the internet yesterday? Nobody needs CZ's view on the halving, but he has the freedom to share it online. It's up to us people if we follow it or not. We don't need to be a Bitcoin expert in order for us to share whatever we wanted to.

Nobody should be placing such large amounts of trust in the words of the rich and famous. The words of an expert in Bitcoin would weigh much more than that of an expert in developing trading software. Honestly, if you ask me, DeFI is a better alternative- if you absolutely need to daytrade. Slightly more expensive, sure. But no KYC.

And all you have to do for that is ask someone on Bitcointalk.org.

Lotta tech and finance experts here who can explain the halving and its effects in much brighter detail.

The ones who might put trust in his words are those newbies out there who has no idea what they're going to do thus, they will just follow what a famous person is saying, or those die-hard fans of CZ who treat him like a God where they will follow what he's saying. I'm neither of the two.

Now you're sharing words of wisdom by promoting DeFi. Are you a DeFi expert, eh? Don't get me wrong though, but I will not follow what CZ is saying, and at the same time yours.

[Lucius]

Yeah I saw the pump and dump, but next time when it happens I don't think that its going to be that big (at least not in the short term) as price didn't come back to the one before that fake news meaning people are really expecting it.

It seems to me that such news could have a rather large impact on the price of BTC, not only because rich investors will be able to invest in BTC with one click of the mouse, but also because companies like BlackRock are positioned globally and enjoy great trust from their clients. If that company thinks that BTC is good for investing, some of their clients will certainly accept it.

Now the only question is how ordinary people perceive such a signal because they may not understand the difference between futures and spot BTC ETF.

That's true. I mean, I don't wanna sound pesimistic, but I just don't wanna hype myself and then be disappointed when it happens and that doesn't affect the price as much as I hoped it will.

Honestly, I'm already used to the fact that anything can happen, so I won't be disappointed if something doesn't happen exactly the way we're speculating today, but it's better to think positively than negatively. In addition, Bitcoin has already proven itself so many times during its short existence, and it is realistic to expect that it will afford us many more pleasant surprises in the future.

[tbct_mt2]

It seems to me that such news could have a rather large impact on the price of BTC, not only because rich investors will be able to invest in BTC with one click of the mouse, but also because companies like BlackRock are positioned globally and enjoy great trust from their clients. If that company thinks that BTC is good for investing, some of their clients will certainly accept it.

Now the only question is how ordinary people perceive such a signal because they may not understand the difference between futures and spot BTC ETF.

They can make one click to buy and also can make one click to sell. Market will have many roller coaster experience with many news from companies like Black Rock. Not completely similar but they can have emotional actions like people were FOMO to buy or panic to sell with Tesla news in last bull run two years ago. Effects from Black Rock can be bigger than Tesla because they are investment companies, not like Tesla that is amateur in this field.

Honestly, I'm already used to the fact that anything can happen, so I won't be disappointed if something doesn't happen exactly the way we're speculating today, but it's better to think positively than negatively. In addition, Bitcoin has already proven itself so many times during its short existence, and it is realistic to expect that it will afford us many more pleasant surprises in the future.

Speculations don't need to be exactly correct. Only newbies believe their speculations will actually happen and make them rich. I agree with you that with more experience, Bitcoin investors will be more realistic and they will not try to find all time highs or bottoms. DCA for accumulation as well as for profit taking.

A good plan for investing and taking profit.
(SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan.