Bitcoin and it's 4 Year-Cycle

[arabspaceship123]

I'd say if something's happened 4 years ago it doesn't mean history's going to repeat itself. It doesn't matter if it's happened at least once before. There isn't a guarantee it's going to occur again so ppl shouldn't put their finances in bitcoin because of charts.

It's an interesting image, but I wouldn't trust it when it comes to predicting the future. Maybe it sort of predicted the cycle low once, but that doesn't mean it can predict the next high point accurately. I, for one, think we'll see a cycle high earlier than August 2025, but it's also merely based on the way I see the price chart and movements, which I realize is not scientific and cannot count for more as a mere prediction. But technical analysis isn't scientific either, it's just fancy-looking, which might buy some people's trust.

[Hamza2424]

Thanks for this decent informative and minimalist compilation dear, OP but I'm a little bit confused as we all know that the having cycle ends around 4 years. Still, the Bitcoin market cycle doesn't follow the same timeframe path. We can expect the cycle duration to be between 2.5 years to 4 years.

So we can expect multiple cycles between the halving to halving timeframe, which will excite the market with all of the cycle fundermenatals Bull, Bear, Accumulation, COnsodilation, and Distribution.

I'd say if something's happened 4 years ago it doesn't mean history's going to repeat itself. It doesn't matter if it's happened at least once before. There isn't a guarantee it's going to occur again so ppl shouldn't put their finances in bitcoin because of charts.

Charts are not big the value is for the realization of the potential, that's it.

[HideYourKeys]

will the price repeat the same pattern? we cannot know for sure, but I trust in Bitcoin mainly because the tradfi system is doing way worse, that contributes a lot as well

[coolcoinz]

The next possible Cycle High is in August, 2025-November, 2025.

So you think that there's no change in human psychology over the years? They've seen a post-halving bull market in 2013, again another one in 2017, another one in 2021, and they see a halving in 2024 and not try to be sneaky about it and buy earlier this time?
We can already see the price pushing upwards to 50% of the last ATH 7 months before the halving. THings were a bit different in September and October 2015, when people didn't understand cycles yet and price was at only 30% of the ATH. This changed later and in 2018 we already had a strong pre-halving rally to 70% of ATH and this is probably starting to happen this year.
You shouldn't look at these cycles as the same thing repeating over and over. The market changes because people gain experience.

[franky1]

The next possible Cycle High is in August, 2025-November, 2025.

So you think that there's no change in human psychology over the years? They've seen a post-halving bull market in 2013, again another one in 2017, another one in 2021, and they see a halving in 2024 and not try to be sneaky about it and buy earlier this time?
We can already see the price pushing upwards to 50% of the last ATH 7 months before the halving. THings were a bit different in September and October 2015, when people didn't understand cycles yet and price was at only 30% of the ATH.

january 2023 was only 30% of last ATH too.. but funny how you choose "now pushing upwards to 50%" to try to pretend that this year is different.. yet in actual fact we too experienced a LESS THAN 50% of previous ATH event in the year before next halving's year

ofcouse a specific "7th month before halving" wont match history.. bitcoin is speculative on the day-to-day, month-to-month. but taking the broader view of events per year.. you see the cycle patterns

[arabspaceship123]

That's what I've been saying all along. We can't predict the future so we don't what's going to happen after halving. Some users are saying $100k but that's unrealistic. I'm advising ppl not buy because they believe they'll make double or triple profits after halving because it's a risk. They shouldn't invest in the wild or else they'll face losing their investment.

will the price repeat the same pattern? we cannot know for sure, but I trust in Bitcoin mainly because the tradfi system is doing way worse, that contributes a lot as well

[Smartprofit]

Halving reduces the supply of coins from miners.  However, how much could this affect the price of Bitcoin?  

Almost all people are now aware of the Bitcoin halving.  Therefore, we can assume that information about the upcoming halving is already included in the real price of Bitcoin.  At the same time, the price of Bitcoin is currently rising.  There's no denying it.  However, what exactly is this growth associated with?  

One forum participant I know suggested that what is important for Bitcoin is not the halving, but the US presidential election.  This is also a four year cycle.  T

he price of Bitcoin is expressed in US dollars.... 

However, presidential elections are usually associated with uncertainty because the outcome is unknown.  It is unknown who will be the next US president and what economic policy he will pursue.  This causes temporary distrust in the US dollar.  As a result, investors are looking for alternative financial instruments, one of which is Bitcoin.

[franky1]

Halving reduces the supply of coins from miners.  However, how much could this affect the price of Bitcoin?  

Almost all people are now aware of the Bitcoin halving.  Therefore, we can assume that information about the upcoming halving is already included in the real price of Bitcoin.  At the same time, the price of Bitcoin is currently rising.  There's no denying it.  However, what exactly is this growth associated with?  

bitcoin mining farms hardware lifecycle is 2 years.
bitcoin miners farms electric contracts is 2 years

the amount of coin mining farms accumulate 2022-23 it accounted in that 2 year mining cycle to set the price per coin for their 2022-23 cycle

the amount of coin mining farms accumulate 2024-25 it accounted in that 2 year mining cycle to set the price per coin for their 2024-25 cycle which will be half as many coins meaning 2x+ of cost
(there are other nuances such as hashrate competition, but im simplifying things)


mining farms do not start and stop randomly(unlike hobby mining) dependant on market. mining farm have 2 years of hardware and 2 years of electric for that hardware so they mine no matter what. and they then compare rewards to that 2 year cost

others(hobby miners) who have higher costs wil see times the market is lower than their individual costs so they will at times buy on the market.
so when the halving happens it affects hobby miners the most to become market buyers instead of miners.
the mining farms wont sell unless the price is above X so that creates an economy where the price goes up

[arabspaceship123]

It's going to vary how much halving's going to affect the price of Bitcoin because there isn't a reason to rely on past trending so we don't know. If we know what's going to happen to the price we'd already have made investment plans in prep for the profits.

What's going to happen if the halving this time makes the market turn bad. Miners with equipment lose out so will ppl who've jumped in because of FOMO.

Halving reduces the supply of coins from miners.  However, how much could this affect the price of Bitcoin?  

[Bitcoin_people]

As Bitcoin's four-year cycle looks really pretty, this prediction is actually quite accurate. We know Bitcoin price starts a bull market every 4 years cycle and that's when Bitcoin price is at its highest ATH. We believe this prediction that we have another bull market ahead that will drastically change the price of Bitcoin. Perhaps we can expect this to begin in 2025, when the market value of Bitcoin will enter the ATH peak. If we look at the chart in 2021 that was the peak Bitcoin ATH, so our next Bitcoin ATH will be in 2025. We can see the price of Bitcoin has already increased quite a bit, almost double what it was before. That's why we should hold for a long time when the market goes to the highest level then surely we can make a lot of profit that's why it is best to hold.

[OcTradism]

Halving reduces the supply of coins from miners.  However, how much could this affect the price of Bitcoin?  

Bitcoin has its total supply, 21 million of bitcoins and new circulating supply will be created with each new Bitcoin block until 2140.

Because the cost of mining is unchanged with same network total hash rate and same network difficulty. If network hash rate and difficulty increase with time, cost of mining to have 1 bitcoin will increase consequently with time. Hence price of 1 bitcoin will increase in long run and by this, people believe that a Bitcoin halving will help Bitcoin to double its price.

It can be true in long term but in short term, price might be stable and not double like people expectation. It can take a few months for people, investors to realize the impact of Bitcoin halving, then it will be reflected on Bitcoin price.

[Fundamentals Of]

The four-year cycle has proven that it has some worth, at least until now. Of course it doesn't mean that it will forever be applicable because of many factors. One of which is the rising price of Bitcoin. The bigger the price of Bitcoin is, the harder it goes up further and multiply. But while it still can, we should try to make the most of it.

If this will once again happen after the halving in April next year, $100,000 could be a very easy target. It's funny but it's already exciting just to wait.

[Fuso.hp]

I really like the chart you have made, most of the time your predictions are correct. Now only waiting for August 2025. The Bitcoin market is very positive by the end of 2023 and it is predicted that the Bitcoin market will remain positive in 2024. If 2023 ends well and if the Bitcoin market is in a good position from mid to late 2024 then the Bitcoin market could reach such a point around August 2025. This is very good news for Bitcoin, it would not be surprising if the market changes so much in August 2025 as all predictions say 2024 to 2025 will be a good time for Bitcoin.

[bluebit25]

In the immediate future, we can completely trust the speculation about this cycle until it breaks. Although I also agree with this speculation, I do not believe that this can remain like this forever because it will become easy to predict and those who know about it will take full advantage of this opportunity.
Because I'm becoming more and more friendly with bitcoin, I think I will always accumulate more bitcoin because after the next 10 years, or even the next 20 years, what I have will simply be bitcoin with no tie to fiat.

[famososMuertos]

First of all, you don't have to buy ideas, you have to see projections, and for that, any graph works, the data is the same and the point here is that some colors make you see emotions and not TA, that's what you have to do and then proceed in the purchase and sale action, as appropriate.

Currently we have a cycle of more than a year for the value of $37k, we are just in recovery for many and profits at the lowest price in that period.

With the above, the point is that the reference works in the interest of each person, but you cannot sell a graph with colors with the certainty that it will happen again.

[Iranus]

It's going to vary how much halving's going to affect the price of Bitcoin because there isn't a reason to rely on past trending so we don't know. If we know what's going to happen to the price we'd already have made investment plans in prep for the profits.

What's going to happen if the halving this time makes the market turn bad. Miners with equipment lose out so will ppl who've jumped in because of FOMO.

Halving reduces the supply of coins from miners.  However, how much could this affect the price of Bitcoin?  

Not only do people seem optimistic, but I also get the feeling people are becoming more subjective than optimistic. Everyone is thinking about a dreamlike scenario where the past will repeat everything exactly and will make us rich easily. Everyone was caught off guard and no one seemed to think about the bad situation that could happen.

For me, when it comes to money and profits, it's a game and the game is never easy. Therefore, it is necessary to have backup plans for bad situations that occur, do not be too subjective because the future is unpredictable.

[Yaunfitda]

In the immediate future, we can completely trust the speculation about this cycle until it breaks. Although I also agree with this speculation, I do not believe that this can remain like this forever because it will become easy to predict and those who know about it will take full advantage of this opportunity.
Because I'm becoming more and more friendly with bitcoin, I think I will always accumulate more bitcoin because after the next 10 years, or even the next 20 years, what I have will simply be bitcoin with no tie to fiat.

And that's what make this market very attractive to speculators, and so far the 4 year cycle hasn't been broken yet. After the block halving, give it a year or two we will see that it will have a big growth, which we call bull run and then we will reach ATH.

So yeah, those smart investors are taking full advantage of that cycle and I haven't heard investors questioning the 4 year cycle as well.

I guess it will have to continue, or it will continue unless the cycle broken. And I doubt that it will be broken though as the halving is scheduled every 4 years and making the supply more scarce and this where the brilliance of the design of Satoshi is revealed and that's why many investors are into bitcoin ecosystem.

[AprilioMP]

In terms of experience, I am not an expert in viewing and analyzing charts to create speculation on Bitcoin. Circumstances that make changes due to the desire to try to learn something from not knowing to knowing.

This graph is good which makes it easier for me to get the meaning of what happened during a certain period each year. There was a tremendous spike during the year after being in a very difficult situation.
Over the past year, when the Bitcoin price level reached $37k from $15k, it surged by around 120+%.

The next possible Cycle High is in August, 2025-November, 2025.

Maybe the next cycle High is close to that year based on this chart.

[thecodebear]

BTC and It's Cycles

I just wanted to share this as many people here do not believe in the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle.

Are there really people who don't believe in the four year cycle?? lol. Cuz like, that's the most obvious thing that everyone knows about.

I understand that people brand new to Bitcoin may not know about it, and there'll always be some people who just like to be contrarian and act like everyone is wrong and the four year cycles are actually part of some longer different cycle but that's silly. I would hope that like 99% of people who actually pay attention to Bitcoin and aren't complete newcomers understand the four year market cycle, otherwise they are gonna be much worse off in getting good deals in this space.

Anytime someone asks me about buying Bitcoin the very first thing I tell them is about the four year cycle, cuz if you don't even know about that you don't have a clue what you're doing. That's THE single most important thing to know about the bitcoin market.

[TravelMug]

BTC and It's Cycles

I just wanted to share this as many people here do not believe in the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle.

Are there really people who don't believe in the four year cycle?? lol. Cuz like, that's the most obvious thing that everyone knows about.

I understand that people brand new to Bitcoin may not know about it, and there'll always be some people who just like to be contrarian and act like everyone is wrong and the four year cycles are actually part of some longer different cycle but that's silly. I would hope that like 99% of people who actually pay attention to Bitcoin and aren't complete newcomers understand the four year market cycle, otherwise they are gonna be much worse off in getting good deals in this space.

Perhaps there could still be non bitcoiners questioning the 4 year cycle. But for those who have seen it, at least in my case, I have witnessed it already, it's like a clockwork. Block halving -> next couple of months the price goes up -> bull run in the next 2 years - > new ATH.

Anytime someone asks me about buying Bitcoin the very first thing I tell them is about the four year cycle, cuz if you don't even know about that you don't have a clue what you're doing. That's THE single most important thing to know about the bitcoin market.

I think that's the most important thing, if I'm not mistaken, I have spoke to someone way before the pandemic and the halving. I still remember it was 2019, and he was asking me all about Bitcoin. And I say to him that he should just continue to buy and don't sell for small profits. But as things turn out, there is the pandemic, lost touch of him because of the lockdown as he did go back to his province. But the last thing I heard about him is that he is doing good because he just hold on his Bitcoin and wait till the halving in 2020.