China's real-estate sector is NOT doing well, it might bring whole economy down

[Wind_FURY]

It's laughable to read those articles showing doctored data from China, then find out mere months later that China's opening from the lockdown has not been enough to make their economy surge again to pre-COVID levels. They're property/real-estate sector, which makes up a LARGE percentage of their GDP, is in the edge of crashing.

For the first time in history, China is considering to give UNSECURED loans to real-estate developers. Plus because of those fiscal stimulus that they have already distributed to help their economy, their budget deficit is in the highest in two decades. They are taking unprecedented risk to save their property sector.

[franky1]

property is always needed. its literally a hard asset
investing in property has backups of government seizing the property/land of real estate if they dont pay back. the government can be part of the deal of escrow too.

the loans are to help real estate developers finish 50-80% part-built apartment blocks so they can put them on the market, sell and then repay costs

its a drastic different story compared to say doing grants and loans to restaurants and small businesses which can take money and just close business. when you see how many scammed the small business stimulus system of multiple countries. you'll soon see investing in property is more secure

not only do the government get back loaned money of the development. but they then continually earn land/property taxes. so it pales in comparison to the small business stimulus cheques system risks

[philipma1957]

property is always needed. its literally a hard asset
investing in property has backups of government seizing the property/land of real estate if they dont pay back. the government can be part of the deal of escrow too.

the loans are to help real estate developers finish 50-80% part-built apartment blocks so they can put them on the market, sell and then repay costs

its a drastic different story compared to say doing grants and loans to restaurants and small businesses which can take money and just close business. when you see how many scammed the small business stimulus system of multiple countries. you'll soon see investing in property is more secure

not only do the government get back loaned money of the development. but they then continually earn land/property taxes. so it pales in comparison to the small business stimulus cheques system risks

Does china charge property taxes?

[Latviand]

Not doing well is an understatement, did you know that they're demolishing high-rise condominiums because they've built too many buildings for housing and they end up not having a lot of people buying those properties and now the real estate industry in China is on debt I think. Not to mention that the corruption in the country is just going up right now and so the buildings that are being built end up being tofu dregs and substandard that it's really difficult to find a secure and safe building. There's more to this housing crisis in China, this is probably a sign that the current Chinese regime is falling apart because they all own the real estate in the country.

Here's some helpful videos that are exposing what's happening in China right now.

Code:

https://youtu.be/27x8s4jVqNI?si=mzos0v9Q3AJR8nRj
https://youtu.be/Qhwk3O6JHZk?si=DCXTUd2dTpB48ZYI
https://youtube.com/shorts/q8D1UqQdf4A?si=R1K_bnGLJ9qhlv8a

Does china charge property taxes?

I don't think they do, the government owns the land and the people who "buy" the land are just leasing it from the government so I don't know if they can still charge property tax from leasing.

[Plaguedeath]

They have a huge population, so that's why the price for real estate is insanely high. They can only rent an apartment, even better share a room with other people to make the cost cheaper.

I don't think it will bring the whole economy down, they will be forced to live with less money and as long as they can accept it, they will make the country rich.

Sadly China is not welcome for LGBTQ+ because gay or trans women can't give a birth, this is just a joke although it's also somewhat correct lol.

[Sithara007]

They have a huge population, so that's why the price for real estate is insanely high. They can only rent an apartment, even better share a room with other people to make the cost cheaper.

I don't think it will bring the whole economy down, they will be forced to live with less money and as long as they can accept it, they will make the country rich.

Sadly China is not welcome for LGBTQ+ because gay or trans women can't give a birth, this is just a joke although it's also somewhat correct lol.

China has a huge population. That is true. But at the same time, this population is rapidly declining as a result of ultra-low birth rates. For the year 2022, Total fertility rate was estimated at just 1.09 children per woman. This is extremely low, and for comparison the TFR in Japan for the year 2022 was 1.26 children per woman and that in Russia was 1.416 children per woman. The low number of births for a continued period of time is being reflected in the economy. There is an oversupply of apartments and the demand is declining with every passing year. Retirees are moving back to their villages, while new births and in migration to the urban areas are not able to cover this.

[Freddie Boyer]

It is true and if you look at this step, it really points to government intervention whose basic assumption is that immediate rescue is needed to maintain economic stability, especially in the property sector.

So, Referring to what you have said above, what will happen is the emergence of a property bubble due to the government's strong helping hand and later in its implementation, whether successful or not, the developers will relax because they don't feel the pressure and will say that they made a loss on item A. B, C and Others.

[pooya87]

Chinese economy is too weird to analyze like this, specially without doing extensive research into it. For example last time a sector in China was about to go bankrupt, it turned out that it was the Chinese government's doing. They basically bankrupt them to prevent capital from leaving the country!!!
Not saying this is the same but you got to do a lot more research to figure what the hell is going on in China.

their budget deficit is in the highest in two decades.

The economic crisis is a global matter so it is affecting every country but to be honest China is one of the least affected ones. For example the budget deficit thing you are talking about is like $130 billion which is like 1% of China's GDP and is really nothing specially since the GDP growth for China is above 5%.

In comparison other countries are doing a lot worse. For example US budget deficit is already in the trillions ($1.7 trillion to be exact) which is a much bigger percentage of the GDP too (nearly 7%) and the growth US set was 2.4%.

[franky1]

I don't think they do, the government owns the land and the people who "buy" the land are just leasing it from the government so I don't know if they can still charge property tax from leasing.

'government land lease' is a form of taxation

For example the budget deficit thing you are talking about is like $130 billion

or $100 per citizen

compare that to

For example US budget deficit is already in the trillions ($1.7 trillion to be exact)

is $5000 per citizen

[avikz]

Well that's China's problem! Why would the rest of the world care about it when China itself doesn't care about the rest of the world?? I see no reason!

China has invested billions of dollars in many other small countries as well. Now when these countries are unable to pay back the debt, China is taking over those projects to build military infrastructure.

So I honestly don't believe anything coming from China. Not the good and definitely not the bad. You never know what's going in the background.

[Renampun]

China has a good economy but their government pampers investors too much with easy loans, the real estate business in China has a bleak future, this is because the purchasing power of the people there continues to decline and many cannot afford to buy a house, in the future  if this continues to happen then we will see cases like evergreen again.

[LoyceMobile]

I saw an explanation on YouTube about china's real estate bubble. They don't even finish the apartments, that would lower the value. And they have tens of millions of empty new apartments, just for the sake of investing. It's the biggest bubble ever, and the only way forward is to make it worse.

[stompix]

I saw an explanation on YouTube about china's real estate bubble. They don't even finish the apartments, that would lower the value. And they have tens of millions of empty new apartments, just for the sake of investing. It's the biggest bubble ever, and the only way forward is to make it worse.

If only that, things are so bad they do ridiculous things, as I mentioned here
China real estate crisis: Buy a house and get a gold bar!

They are of offering you a ton of thing extra on top of the house so they could till sell it at fixed prices, since the government isn't allowing them to lower the price, sooner you'll see offers for houses worth $300k and with a $200k prize if you purchase it in....the next 20 years!
But they keep building, more and more and more, and all on debt.

They have a huge population, so that's why the price for real estate is insanely high. They can only rent an apartment, even better share a room with other people to make the cost cheaper.

Far more complicated than just that!

First thing, you can't move freely in China, this is not the US where you can just pack your bag and go east cost to west coast, in China they have a hukou system, imagine that if your parent moved to a different city for work and will face restrictions you as a child will face them too, the whole thing is inheritable so some people can't move, others are forced to move, the govemermnt builds things somewhere, the regional government builds entire cities elsewhere, each mayor builds whatever he wants and because of the restrictions you end with an unbalanced market, made worse by the fact that some cities force one home per family and some region won't allow you to purchase another home as long as you have a mortgage even if you want to move. So you need to first sell it, be homeless, then move to the other city, get residence and then buy your home,i f allowed. On the other hand, where homes are plentiful and the governments build like amd, nobody wants to live cause there are no jobs!

[bluebit25]

I just read the news somewhere about ZEG going bankrupt. The economy is showing terrifying signs. Since the default of a large real estate corporation in China, I have always had the feeling that they have suffered heavy losses to the economy.

It's not certain that the cajoling of the leaders will help China escape the economic recession. Perhaps elimination is inevitable at this stage, and we will still see many other professions eliminated. The impact of the economy shows signs of disruption. Big countries like America, China, Russia,... are all having to deal with different challenges to their economies. Perhaps we, the people, always want freedom, independence, and peace.

[franky1]

when covid happened and everyone had to stay home. alot of people got annoyed with their space(cabin fever) and surveys showed an uptick of people wanting to move to a better space..
this triggered real estate to think this was an opportunity to build more apartments in locations with less restrictions or more prospects. however
when covid lockdowns ended. not as many people actually still wanted to leave for a better location. (cabin fever ended)

also many of the developers that started building were not building spacious luxury apartments. they got greedy and built small unsuitable apartments in towns where there was not enough employers nearby(made cheap on cheap land). so people didnt pre-buy apartments in the development phase. so many developers ran out of funds before they could complete builds

in more detail many developers planned to get to 50%-80% builds and use the other funds to start the next apartment block before the first was complete
however they were unable to pre-sale the second apartment block means they couldnt regain funds to finish the first block
this caused those who did pre-but the first block didnt get to move in. causing them to not honour the mortgage

in short developers made too many, too fast based on a survey conducted during covid that suggested a boom of people moving,relocated. but it turned out that the survey was based on lockdown emotions of temporary cabin fever.. not actually based on peoples true ability, readiness and willingness to relocate

analogy
its much like watching tv and during the advertisements complaining that you will change channel and stop watching their tv show and watch a different new tv show on a new channel because the adverts are ruining the tv show.. but you end up watching the tv show on the same channel.. whilst the studios were hoping they could gain your viewer stats on their new channel due to peoples thoughts of the other channel. so they make cheap shows hoping to tempt people... but people just continue watching the standard channels shows because they are comfy with the shows they already watch

now the new channel is in financial hardship with many tv series being unfinished, and other tv shows in development

[philipma1957]

They have a huge population, so that's why the price for real estate is insanely high. They can only rent an apartment, even better share a room with other people to make the cost cheaper.

I don't think it will bring the whole economy down, they will be forced to live with less money and as long as they can accept it, they will make the country rich.

Sadly China is not welcome for LGBTQ+ because gay or trans women can't give a birth, this is just a joke although it's also somewhat correct lol.

an untouched lesbian can make babies if they are young say 50 or less.

cut transgender are sterile but they may have save eggs or sperm or fertilized embryos.

[topbitcoin]

Who doesn't know this country called the Bamboo Curtain country? At first many people thought that a socialist country like China was difficult to become a developed country.
But what happened next, this bamboo curtain country was able to show who he was, and made his country a developed country, also made his country one of the countries with the largest economic power in the world.

So I think if for example this will have an impact on the entire Chinese economy, I think it's too much. And I think in just a few time this will soon be resolved and Chinese will soon rise from this downturn.

Indeed, if we think back that the Chinese state business in the real estate sector is one of the engines to grow and develop the Chinese economy. Because at least this business has contributed up to a range of thirty percent to the GDP of this bamboo curtain country. So with the instability of this business, it is enough to hit the Chinese economy. And the country's economic growth has been hampered for some time.
 

[DrBeer]

It seems that the idea of ​​giving the Chinese a chance to find their home (as the highest goal in life) and create a market that constantly generates turnover, income and jobs is collapsing. Now I’ll explain what I mean.

Let's not hide it - having your own home is probably one of the key goals in life for 99% of the population. Not the only one, but one of many of the most important.

Now let’s imagine what the potential of the Chinese real estate market is with its more than 1 billion population? HUGE! But in order to launch this market, it is necessary to create some conditions:
1. Opportunity to buy! But given the prices of real estate in China, and the average income, few people can just come and pour a bunch of money into a developer company. The right way out is loans/mortgages! And this also means that people will stick to their jobs, not create unnecessary movements, will be more law-abiding and generally obedient, because loss of income is synonymous with loss of housing and eviction onto the street, without any compensation.
2. It is also desirable to make sure that people have an incentive - so that each generation buys their own apartment! Otherwise, they will live after their parents and not “pour money” into this extremely profitable and politically advantageous business. Voila - we are writing a law according to which the buyer does not have a lifelong ownership right to housing purchased in China. In China, a person owns a home for 70 years from the date of construction of the house. That is, if you are now buying a home in a house built in 2000, then you are purchasing it for 47 years and in 2070 the ownership right will be lost.
The same thing happens with a private house: the land on which the house stands is leased from the state, and the state will decide what to do with this land after the expiration of the term.

Great ! We have an ideal picture - constant demand, the majority buys on credit and long-term payment obligations, a lot of jobs are created, because... There is massive construction going on all over China. It’s beautiful - people are busy, dependent, and have a feeling of satisfaction of a key need.

But that is if everything is perfect. And it turned out that the scheme began to fail... "In 2022, real estate sales in China fell by 26.8% and the trend continues. According to Goldman Sachs, China's total real estate debt is currently $12 trillion. Two-thirds are debts on loans, one third are debts of developers. It is estimated that more than $ 400 billion of debts will never be paid." expect huge problems for the Chinese economy due to the collapse of the real estate market. I am sure that the state will not only not want to finance the closure of the problem, but it will not be able to financially...

The problem with such bulky systems or circuits is that it works if the situation is ideal.. As soon as we move away from the ideal, this huge machine begins to destroy itself with its weight

[kryptqnick]

It seems that the Chinese real estate market has been having some issues for almost a decade, since property prices fell in 2014. It's 22% of their economy, so it's indeed a pretty big part of it, but, to be honest, I don't think the situation's bad enough to actually bring China's economy down (although I suppose it depends on how to interpret that phrase).
That being said, it's not the only bad thing with the prospects of China's economy. China overshot with its one-child policy and abandoned in too late, so the population is not starting to decline, which is expected to have a negative impact on its economy. In the meantime, a record high number (1 in 5) of young adults are unemployed. So, if we combine all that, China's certainly facing challenging times for its economy, although I don't think we're near a point of true devastation.

[Haunebu]

I don't know about their real estate issues bringing down the entire economy or something, but their economy is definitely suffering due to multiple reasons. Countries like India seem to be doing better in comparison even though they surpassed their population recently.

As long as Xi is in power, most of their citizens will continue to suffer in my opinion.