JJG's Bitcoin Investment Ideas (Sustainable Withdrawal / Portfolio Maintenance)

[bitmover]

So yeah figuring out an allocation to bitcoin could be something like 5% to 25% of your investment portfolio to be allocated into bitcoin, but surely if you are more of a beginner in terms of building your investment portfolio, you may well be considering ways to accumulate bitcoin that revolve around 1) dollar cost averaging, 2) lump sum investing and/or 3) buying on dips. I am also not much into trading and/or selling bitcoin in an attempt to accumulate more, which gets us back to the topic of this here particular thread presuming that if you are considering either maintenance and/or various forms of sustainable withdrawal, then you have already spent a decent amount of time accumulating BTC.

I have about 30% in bitcoin. I was worried about that as I considered it a lot.

However,  after recents discussions with you JJG, and some recent thoughts about the market , I stopped selling for a while. I will try to increase it.

I regreted not have accumulated more before 2020 or in 2022... I will keep accumulating what I can now, but I believe the future is very bullish. No reason to sell for now.

[JayJuanGee]

So yeah figuring out an allocation to bitcoin could be something like 5% to 25% of your investment portfolio to be allocated into bitcoin, but surely if you are more of a beginner in terms of building your investment portfolio, you may well be considering ways to accumulate bitcoin that revolve around 1) dollar cost averaging, 2) lump sum investing and/or 3) buying on dips. I am also not much into trading and/or selling bitcoin in an attempt to accumulate more, which gets us back to the topic of this here particular thread presuming that if you are considering either maintenance and/or various forms of sustainable withdrawal, then you have already spent a decent amount of time accumulating BTC.

I have about 30% in bitcoin. I was worried about that as I considered it a lot.

However,  after recents discussions with you JJG, and some recent thoughts about the market , I stopped selling for a while. I will try to increase it.

I regreted not have accumulated more before 2020 or in 2022... I will keep accumulating what I can now, but I believe the future is very bullish. No reason to sell for now.

The percentage of allocation can quite vary depending on individual circumstances, including questions about whether you have other investments, and surely if you are starting your first investment with bitcoin, then all that you are going to have is bitcoin and dollars, but if you are starting your investment with an already existing diversified portfolio (referring to traditional assets, not shitcoins), then you may well consider an initial target of 5% to 25% in bitcoin would be a good target.. for example, a guy who might come into bitcoin and already have $50k invested in index stocks or something like that... then he might consider an initial target of 5% to 25% in bitcoin would be something like $2,500 to $12,500 - but then if his allocation in bitcoin grows based on bitcoin growing rather than his putting more into bitcoin, then he may well consider how to treat that growth and whether it is worth it to allocate in other assets or just grow his bitcoin portion until it reaches some kind of a meaningful size..

so if his annual income/expenses might be in the ballpark of $40k per year, then maybe he is going to want to get his bitcoin holdings up to 1 or 2 years of his annual income/expenses prior to considering any kind of need to diversify into other assets.

For sure, these are not easy choices, but there are likely folks who might already have various kinds of traditional investments who decide to ONLY focus on bitcoin in terms of their new accumulations of investments, even though they surely might let their traditional investments ride.

Another problem is that some western countries have is the existence of 401k-like products, which are both tax free but also those products might have employer matching contributions, and so with those folks, they may be tempted to invest into those 401k-like products, and they might not even have a lot (if any) discretionary income remaining after they had already allocated to those 401k-like products (and which products are ONLY recently potentially getting bitcoin ETFs as one of the allocation options within them).

But, yeah, folks who do not have any of those employer and/or government-sponsored products, they may well come to investing and they may well start investing into bitcoin, and bitcoin is largely their only investment, so they are merely diversifying (or slightly de-risking) the amount of their BTC exposure by figuring out how much cash to keep.. so they are largely just BTC and cash, so they may well end up having 70% to 90% in BTC and the other part in cash and/or various kinds of cash alternatives (again not necessarily referring to shitcoins - even though some folks in poorer countries might not have a lot of investment options outside of the "crypto" space)....

..so then if the holdings in the overall investment portfolio are mostly just bitcoin and cash or cash equivalents, then at some point - maybe after 1-2 years worth of income and/or expenses is starting to build up into the BTC /cash holdings.. there may well be some concerns that the cash portions are not working enough.. so even though BTC is quite volatile, the BTC portion might still be considered as "working" so there may well. be some desires to have more of the cash portions to be working also, which in some senses justifies the concept of diversification into a variety of other assets.. maybe adding one new asset at a time ever year or every few years.. .... or there might be some other considerations that a person might have based on the investment options that he considers to be available to him.. and hopefully no more than 10% of the value of bitcoin will go into any shitcoins.. even though people have to make those kinds of choices for themselves based on their perceptions of options... and if they might consider whether they are able to invest in stocks, property, commodities, bonds or other forms of cash/cash equivalents.

[bitmover]

How much BTC and/or value to use:   Of course, I am very much into the idea of using fuck you status and suggesting that default entry-level fuck you status could be considered as $2 million in western location.  However, with this particular tool, I started out with 21 coins in a bit of a random way, and if we use the tool, and we look back to September/October 2022, we see that 21 BTC were then worth $490k-ish in terms of the 200-WMA, but the spot price was then below the 200-WMA at $403k-ish, so at that time with the use of the tool (or the formula), the withdrawal authorization amounts were quite extensively reduced (even if we were to have had used this tool back then), and even in my own hypothetical presentation, the withdrawal amounts were even way below the limits, so I had a lot of reluctance to be selling and/or withdrawing BTC during that time (in terms of the hypothetical example that I used). 

I have been thinking a lot about this fuck you status recently

Do you think an overall portfolio of 2 mi USD is enough to retire? Fuck you status? If so, how much btc would be healthy? 30%?

I have been making many btc price projections, and it looks like Bitcoin is likely to reach 100-150k after trumps election.

[JayJuanGee]

How much BTC and/or value to use:   Of course, I am very much into the idea of using fuck you status and suggesting that default entry-level fuck you status could be considered as $2 million in western location.  However, with this particular tool, I started out with 21 coins in a bit of a random way, and if we use the tool, and we look back to September/October 2022, we see that 21 BTC were then worth $490k-ish in terms of the 200-WMA, but the spot price was then below the 200-WMA at $403k-ish, so at that time with the use of the tool (or the formula), the withdrawal authorization amounts were quite extensively reduced (even if we were to have had used this tool back then), and even in my own hypothetical presentation, the withdrawal amounts were even way below the limits, so I had a lot of reluctance to be selling and/or withdrawing BTC during that time (in terms of the hypothetical example that I used). 

I have been thinking a lot about this fuck you status recently

Do you think an overall portfolio of 2 mi USD is enough to retire? Fuck you status? If so, how much btc would be healthy?

My own thinking has been evolving on the topic, so I am not really sure how to say it in ways that are really clear, since I think that each of us has to find our spot and our formula for when and how to start to employ something like a sustainable withdrawal.. not only in terms of the amount needed, but also who much could be withdrawn once we figure out that we have enough of a pot to be able to sustainably withdrawal.

Sure the dollar value of target is going to continue to move because of the ongoing debasement of the dollar - yet I still prefer not to let the ongoing and inevitalbe debasement of the dollar to interfere with my own calculations regarding how BTC can play a role in sustainable withdrawal, since it seems to me that bitcoin is not being debased at the same rate as fiat (that is if bitcoin is being debased at all since it has the opposite monetary policy that does not involve actual debasement but instead a fixed supply and a known rate of issuance.

So that $2 million comes from traditional ideas of a 4% withdrawal rate (which would therefor result in a $6,666 per month withdrawal - $80k per year), and since I am more and more inclined to believe that bitcoin bitcoin can sustain a 6% to 10% withdrawal rate, then that means that not as much bitcoin is needed to be able to achieve that same withdrawal amount of $6,666.  So right now presuming that 6% is sustainable, then that would mean that you would need $1,333,333 in order to get that same withdrawal of $80k per year and/or $6,666 per month, and if you are presuming that 10% is sustainable then you would only need $800k of BTC to obtain that same withdrawal of $80k per year and/or $6,666 per month.. ..

So using the 200-WMA, $2 million is 56.3 BTC, $1,333,333 is 37.5 BTC and $800k is 22.5BTC.  You can look for yourself at https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

So then the question becomes how much do you believe either the formulas being sustainable or alternatively that you might need some other kind of a cushion.. including if you have calculated your own income needs correctly.

30%?

I am not sure what you mean by 30%? 4% is the sustainable withdrawal rate for traditional investments, and I am thinking that 10% is sustainable for bitcoin, but yeah you could come to some other conclusion, but I would be hesitate to employ a really high withdrawal rates, such as 30%..

I have been making many btc price projections, and it looks like Bitcoin is likely to reach 100-150k after trumps election.

Yeah, but I don't base my own actions on spot price, unless you are considering some kind of a raking that you might want to do. and surely, with something like raking, you can set various prices that you would like to make withdrawals, such as every time the BTC price goes up 30%, you withdraw up to 3% of your BTC holdings.. again that would presume that you have overly accumulated and you are not necessarily withdrawing to buy back but instead you are selling in order to rake off some profits - and yeah, 3% every 30% might start to add up to selling way more BTC than you would have had wished, unless you had already decided that you had reached a status of over accumulation of BTC.

Regarding you presumption of Trump's election? and then whether that would cause a certain BTC price direction.  I am not sure about all of that.

Personally, despite USA politics, I am thinking that odds are pretty decently that BTC prices would end up bouncing around somewhere between $120k and $180k in 2024 (and yeah that is not much different from what you are saying), and that in 2025, the BTC prices are likely to reach higher levels than 2024.. I hate to personally attempt to be any more specific than that, yet in any event the main measure (from my point of view) of the 200-WMA is continuing to go up and currently going up right around $42 per day.

But yeah, if you are thinking about selling or shaving off some BTC, you are thinking in terms of how much spot price you are going to get rather than 200-WMA.. so I understand those spot price kinds of framings are important to folks (normies/hodlers).

[bitmover]

I am not sure what you mean by 30%? 4% is the sustainable withdrawal rate for traditional investments, and I am thinking that 10% is sustainable for bitcoin, but yeah you could come to some other conclusion, but I would be hesitate to employ a really high withdrawal rates, such as 30%..

I was asking your opinion about how much %of btc is health in a 2 MI usd portfolio?
30, 50%?

In a diversified portfolio with bonds and etf.

I am asking because you said before that you were already retired and had a diversified portfolio when you got to btc.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

I am not sure what you mean by 30%? 4% is the sustainable withdrawal rate for traditional investments, and I am thinking that 10% is sustainable for bitcoin, but yeah you could come to some other conclusion, but I would be hesitate to employ a really high withdrawal rates, such as 30%..

I was asking your opinion about how much %of btc is health in a 2 MI usd portfolio?
30, 50%?

In a diversified portfolio with bonds and etf.

I am asking because you said before that you were already retired and had a diversified portfolio when you got to btc.

Following up with you both is interesting and enlightening as well because one of the things am also considering on this is to set a model on the percentage I will be considering on by bitcoin portfolio later in the future after considering other asset as second plan on my investments, anyone having a future or long term plan for himself will have to consider some of the points raised from this discussion as being relevant because they can also build their own decision from them and still follow up the trend.

[MusaMohamed]

Yeah, but I don't base my own actions on spot price, unless you are considering some kind of a raking that you might want to do. and surely, with something like raking, you can set various prices that you would like to make withdrawals, such as every time the BTC price goes up 30%, you withdraw up to 3% of your BTC holdings.. again that would presume that you have overly accumulated and you are not necessarily withdrawing to buy back but instead you are selling in order to rake off some profits - and yeah, 3% every 30% might start to add up to selling way more BTC than you would have had wished, unless you had already decided that you had reached a status of over accumulation of BTC.

Consider to withdraw when Bitcoin price goes up 30%, then withdraw 3% of BTC in portfolio.

Could you explain more like you will withdraw by selling 3% of your bitcoin in portfolio when BTC price goes up 30%?

My thinking for it is

I will sell my bitcoin, wait for price correction to like 5% or 10% and buy bitcoin. By this I will have +5% or +10% more bitcoins, and I will withdraw it with 3% of a new number of bitcoin in my portfolio. I will have +2% or +7% more bitcoins after that withdrawal round.

What do you think?

If I worry that I take profit too low, I will wait for BTC price rise like 50% to use this strategy.

[JayJuanGee]

I am not sure what you mean by 30%? 4% is the sustainable withdrawal rate for traditional investments, and I am thinking that 10% is sustainable for bitcoin, but yeah you could come to some other conclusion, but I would be hesitate to employ a really high withdrawal rates, such as 30%..

I was asking your opinion about how much %of btc is health in a 2 MI usd portfolio?
30, 50%?

In a diversified portfolio with bonds and etf.

I am asking because you said before that you were already retired and had a diversified portfolio when you got to btc.

Of course there are different ways that you can treat you overall investment portfolio, and probably until the last year or so, I had been hypothesizing that even if bitcoin might have a higher potential return rate as compared with other assets in your portfolio, you could well treat the withdrawal rate similarly - however, I think that a lot of our more indepth sustainable withdrawal discussion, including how the sustainable withdrawal tool really shows how very much higher withdrawal rates can be maintained with bitcoin as compared with other assets... so even when we developed the sustainable withdrawal tool, I had already hypothesized that 6-10% would be quite sustainable - and I suppose that I am becoming more and more convicted in regards to that, especially after you had gotten the historical tracking to be working.

I am considering that none of us necessarily purposefully diversify into other assets, but yeah surely there might be some point where it makes sense to diversify into other assets, since it might not be comfortable to ONLY have investments in bitcoin and cash..so yeah, I cannot really say how much property, stocks, commodities, bonds or other investments to have, especially since mine has largely just been to let my BTC ride, and not really doing much if any diversifying. so largely the Bitcoin portion has grown to dwarf my other investments.. even though they already exist and I am largely just considering that package other investments as having a withdrawal rate of around 4% and the bitcoin to have a 6% to 10% withdrawal rate, even though I personally still have not been withdrawing out of my bitcoin at anything close to that high of rates since my various other funds continue to support me, even though surely there are times that I try to spend more.. or to increase my spending budget in order that I can spend more bitcoin proceeds.

I have not updated my own disclosures of my percentage of allocations since mid-2022 - but you can see how my bitcoin versus other assets have evolved with my largely starting out in bitcoin with about 13.5% in late 2014 in bitcoin and most of the growth came from bitcoin appreciation rather than reallocating... so yeah maybe now my bitcoin is in the 80% to 90% territory.. and I see no real reason to purposefully sell my winner to diversify into losers (relatively speaking), and so I have difficulties answering regarding how much others might be justified to invest into various other assets.

Yeah, but I don't base my own actions on spot price, unless you are considering some kind of a raking that you might want to do. and surely, with something like raking, you can set various prices that you would like to make withdrawals, such as every time the BTC price goes up 30%, you withdraw up to 3% of your BTC holdings.. again that would presume that you have overly accumulated and you are not necessarily withdrawing to buy back but instead you are selling in order to rake off some profits - and yeah, 3% every 30% might start to add up to selling way more BTC than you would have had wished, unless you had already decided that you had reached a status of over accumulation of BTC.

Consider to withdraw when Bitcoin price goes up 30%, then withdraw 3% of BTC in portfolio.

Could you explain more like you will withdraw by selling 3% of your bitcoin in portfolio when BTC price goes up 30%?

I was trying to figure out what bitmover was talking about, and I misunderstood him, but yeah, I stick by my comment of some kind of a reasonable rate of withdrawal that someone might consider once he has gotten his BTC holding to a high enough amount... and so frequently I try to use 10% for every 100% increase in BTC price as a kind of potential guideline, so then we could also do 1% for every 10% rise or we could do 3% for every 30% rise and still stay within the parameters of that same formula... and yeah currently I am not withdrawing that high of a rate.. but I can understand if someone might want to use something like that rate as a ballpark guidance of potential reasonableness.

My thinking for it is

I will sell my bitcoin, wait for price correction to like 5% or 10% and buy bitcoin. By this I will have +5% or +10% more bitcoins, and I will withdraw it with 3% of a new number of bitcoin in my portfolio. I will have +2% or +7% more bitcoins after that withdrawal round.

What do you think?

You are talking about trading and expecting to be able to buy back, so I am not talking about that.  Sure I have some locations that I mention that you could buy back if the BTC price drops, but I am not choosing my amounts to sell or even guiding to sell with the purpose of being able to buy back.  From my thinking, if you have purpose of buying back or some kind of a need to buy back, then you are doing something different from what I am suggesting.. since my suggested sales both relies on reaching a status of overaccumulation and also has no expectation of being able to buy back cheaper..

If I worry that I take profit too low, I will wait for BTC price rise like 50% to use this strategy.

Sure nothing wrong with giving some kind of a extra cushion to the point in which you might start to sell your bitcoin, but if you are considering being able to buy back cheaper, then you are thinking about the matter different from my own thinking about how to set up my sales decisions (if any)..

[Yeesha]

This thread serves as an extension to the maintenance and liquidation portion of my BTC Investment ideas thread since some of the various Opening posts in that thread were starting to get overly cluttered and potentially confusing.

1)   This post:  Introduction (Opening Post 1):  
2)   Opening Post 2: Creating monthly withdrawal limits - based on the then BTC Spot price's direction and distance from the 200-week moving average, and of course a withdrawal rate and quantity of coins in the account
3)   Opening Post 3: Establishing price-based sell thresholds  - including potential buy back options (yes seeming to border on trading - but really could be considered as ways to insure the BTC holdings from inevitable volatility
4)   Opening Post 4:  Reserved - still to be determined

I am hoping that some of these ideas will be helpful to others, besides me and maybe helpful for institutions and/or governments too.  

Anyone have any suggestions, questions or similar ideas that they would like to share in this thread?  Please do.  

Even though I made this as a self-moderated thread, I am open to attempts to critique the various ideas or investment frameworks herein, but at my discretion I may delete posts that I determine to devolve too much into personal attacks (without seeming to provide adequate substance), shitcoin pumpening, bitcoin naysaying (that largely appears to me to be backhanded ways to shill some kind of a shitcoin) trolling or shilling.  

I would like to NOT delete many if any posts, but let’s see how it goes.

Last Edited: December 17, 2023

I have been acknowledging you and recognizing your efforts and contribution to this forum, you are so Educative and your expertise is impressive, you must be wondering why I posted today and the thread has been existing for months, well I came across it today and I found it interesting, informative and helpful so I decided to read it.

It took me some time to read it, but after reading it I realized that those time I spent on it does not go in vain, because this thread will really be helpful to me and i believe that it will also be helpful to a lots of people in the forum. Following this ideas will help someone to become a successful/good bitcoin investor. I really appreciate your guidance. Thanks

[JayJuanGee]

This thread serves as an extension to the maintenance and liquidation portion of my BTC Investment ideas thread since some of the various Opening posts in that thread were starting to get overly cluttered and potentially confusing.
1)   This post:  Introduction (Opening Post 1):  
2)   Opening Post 2: Creating monthly withdrawal limits - based on the then BTC Spot price's direction and distance from the 200-week moving average, and of course a withdrawal rate and quantity of coins in the account
3)   Opening Post 3: Establishing price-based sell thresholds  - including potential buy back options (yes seeming to border on trading - but really could be considered as ways to insure the BTC holdings from inevitable volatility
4)   Opening Post 4:  Reserved - still to be determined
I am hoping that some of these ideas will be helpful to others, besides me and maybe helpful for institutions and/or governments too.  

Anyone have any suggestions, questions or similar ideas that they would like to share in this thread?  Please do.  

Even though I made this as a self-moderated thread, I am open to attempts to critique the various ideas or investment frameworks herein, but at my discretion I may delete posts that I determine to devolve too much into personal attacks (without seeming to provide adequate substance), shitcoin pumpening, bitcoin naysaying (that largely appears to me to be backhanded ways to shill some kind of a shitcoin) trolling or shilling.  

I would like to NOT delete many if any posts, but let’s see how it goes.
Last Edited: December 17, 2023

I have been acknowledging you and recognizing your efforts and contribution to this forum, you are so Educative and your expertise is impressive, you must be wondering why I posted today and the thread has been existing for months, well I came across it today and I found it interesting, informative and helpful so I decided to read it.

It took me some time to read it, but after reading it I realized that those time I spent on it does not go in vain, because this thread will really be helpful to me and i believe that it will also be helpful to a lots of people in the forum. Following this ideas will help someone to become a successful/good bitcoin investor. I really appreciate your guidance. Thanks

Of course, learning through the forum allows for more of an interactive process, as compared with just reading some information sources in other formats, so surely I don't mind interacting with members on the topic of this thread or my BTC Investment ideas thread that is also linked within the OP of this thread.  I consider my investment ideas thread to be touching upon the more basic ideas of BTC accumulation and more applicable to more people since the inspirations regarding why any of us might choose to invest into bitcoin as compared with other places that we can place time, energies and value might come through ideas that I attempt to discuss in my investment ideas thread,... so surely the investment ideas thread seems to have a potential to help guys to consider, plan and/or put into practice the accumulation of bitcoin and to potentially be able to focus on bitcoin accumulation rather than considering trading, gambling and/or the accumulation and/or fucking around with shitcoins.

This here sustainable withdrawal and/or portfolio maintenance thread may well be for those bitcoiners who have already mostly gotten through their BTC accumulation stages or who have already spent a decent amount of time accumulating BTC, so they might start to plan, consider and put into practice what they might be doing to either maintain their BTC holdings or to start to employ sustainable withdrawal practices (price based and/or time based), to the extent to which they might consider bitcoin as a long-term life-time investment, rather than an investment (or trade) that they might want to sell for dollars in shorter timelines (absent if they might have some age or health issues that might contribute to their having to sell their BTC rather than their considering and/or employing some kinds of sustainable withdrawal practices - like those discussed in this thread).

Absence some evidence to the contrary (or some affirmative statement to demonstrate otherwise), I tend to presume that an overwhelming majority of forum members are similarly situated as the vast majority of the world's population in which a vast majority are either early in their BTC accumulation phases or they still have not yet accumulated enough BTC or more than enough BTC, whether they are a low coiner or hopefully not a no coiner (even though there are some no coiner forum members participate in this forum too).  .. so anyhow, absent your having had already accumulated a decent amount of BTC (or telling me that's your status), my BTC investment ideas thread might be more appropriate for your particulars, unless you want to point out some of your own particulars or questions that might allow some consideration that this thread might be applicable to your situation.  Let me know, and surely I have no problem with any forum members interacting with the ideas of this thread or even posting questions or comments within the thread after decently long periods of no posting herein.. From my perspective the ideas are largely evergreen, even if I might have some changes in some of my ideas from time to time in regards to the applicability of some of the particulars.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Thank you for sharing your thoughts on the two threads. It seems like you're suggesting that your BTC Investment Ideas thread might be more relevant to members who are early in their BTC accumulation phase, while this Sustainable Withdrawal and Portfolio Maintenance thread might be more suitable for those who have already accumulated a decent amount of BTC and are looking to maintain their holdings or employ sustainable withdrawal strategies. Is that a correct interpretation?

Sure, it is true that I consider sustainable withdrawal strategies to come into play (or to become more relevant) after bitcoiners have achieved overaccumulation status.

Many of us can appreciate that it could take years and years to reach overaccumulation status, yet some guys still want to participate in conversations regarding how they might want to treat their bitcoin holdings once they get to some kind of a status that might be close to overaccumulation status, and perhaps they might feel that they want to prepare for overaccumulation status prior to getting there - so in that sense, even the sustainable withdrawal theories could be of interest to guys who are trying to set their goals and considering why they are accumulating BTC and what to do once they reach a status of having enough or more then enough BTC. 

Guys might not even be sure how to characterize enough or more than enough bitcoin without thinking through how to valuate their stash in light of their own personal circumstances.

It also could be the case that guys might consider flaws in my own bitcoin valuation methods, and they may well want to use some of my ideas and to discard other ideas that I have, including that some guys consider valuating their BTC based on the 200-WMA becomes too complicated when usually if we are making any BTC sales we would be selling BTC at spot prices rather than 200-WMA prices... and of course, when the BTC prices are down to 200-WMA levels those seem like times that guys might temper their selling of BTC and perhaps error on the side of buying or holding BTC... even though I have also speculated that if some guys might be completely living off of their BTC, they still might be able to sell BTC at reduced rates during times that the BTC prices might be near or even below the 200-WMA.

It seems to me that there could be some guys who build up their BTC stash to be something like 10 years of their expenses, and they still only have bitcoin and cash, and they do not have other investments, yet it also seems to me that dollar/fiat portions of a guys investment is going to be more stable if it has some diversification into some other assets, such as properties, stocks, bonds, commodities and/or cash equivalents (not necessarily referring to shitcoins), yet there are some guys who also might have goals to keep large portions of their investment portfolio to be more liquid, and both bitcoin and cash tend to be pretty liquid, relative to some other kinds of assets.  Owning businesses can be another way of diversification, depending on the extent that the businesses might require participation in their management and/or operations... .and surely, a guys building up of his bitcoin might also revolve upon the ways in which he had been making money to build it up, so some kinds of non-bitcoin might be logical to his own situation.

Of course, there are some guys who want to use some of my ideas to formulate their own BTC trading practices (or even shitcoin trading practices in regards to how they might think about getting in and out of shitcoins in order to try to accumulate more bitcoin), and even though I recommend against trading BTC (and surely I recommend against screwing around with shitcoins), there still can be some logic in terms of trying to assess bitcoin prices as being overvalued or undervalued based on how far spot prices might be from the 200-WMA.

[Negotiation]

Of course, there are some guys who want to use some of my ideas to formulate their own BTC trading practices (or even shitcoin trading practices in regards to how they might think about getting in and out of shitcoins in order to try to accumulate more bitcoin), and even though I recommend against trading BTC (and surely I recommend against screwing around with shitcoins), there still can be some logic in terms of trying to assess bitcoin prices as being overvalued or undervalued based on how far spot prices might be from the 200-WMA.

If someone works with a 40-week target as you said, I hope they will not lose. There are many things here, since you discuss many topics and they are detailed, and I myself have been inspired by many of your writings and have seen that they are actually effective in practice.

The main point here is that while the profits are much higher in other coins or tokens, the risk is much higher. Because there is a possibility of losing your money completely, but when you invest in Bitcoin, you do not have to fear losing your interest completely if you can keep your wallet safe.

[JayJuanGee]

Of course, there are some guys who want to use some of my ideas to formulate their own BTC trading practices (or even shitcoin trading practices in regards to how they might think about getting in and out of shitcoins in order to try to accumulate more bitcoin), and even though I recommend against trading BTC (and surely I recommend against screwing around with shitcoins), there still can be some logic in terms of trying to assess bitcoin prices as being overvalued or undervalued based on how far spot prices might be from the 200-WMA.

If someone works with a 40-week target as you said, I hope they will not lose. There are many things here, since you discuss many topics and they are detailed, and I myself have been inspired by many of your writings and have seen that they are actually effective in practice.

I am not clear what is your reference to "40-Week target."  My attempts to use the 200-WMA revolves around an attempt to figure out how a guy can plan to withdraw from his BTC based on "bottom prices" rather than spot prices that tend to bounce in a lot of directions, and of course, guys can take my ideas and turn them into something else or attempt to execute some kind of plan that is outside of my attempts to frame these matters.

Maybe an example could be helpful?  If a guy with a $30k-ish income had been investing $100 per week into bitcoin over the past 4 years, then he would have had invested right around $21k and he would have had accumulated about 0.58 BTC..  

So really after 4 years of investing fairly steadily into bitcoin his average cost per BTC would be right around the same at the 200-WMA, so surely he might feel that he is in a pretty good place in regards to how much BTC he had been able to accumulate, yet he still might feel that he is quite far from his ability to live off of the BTC since 0.58 BTC would have a 200-WMA value of $26.2k and a spot value of $50.6k.    I have been frequently suggesting that a guy can withdraw 10% dollar value based on the 200-WMA, yet with current values that would ONLY allow this particular guy to withdraw at $2,620 per year, which is way below his current income.

On the other hand if a guy of a similar status had been investing $100 per week over the past 9 years, then he would haver had invested $47k, and he would have had accumulated around 12.2 BTC, so this second guy would feel that he is in a much better place to be able to start to live off of his BTC since his 12.2 BTC would have a current 200-WMA valuation of $551k and a spot price of about $1million.  So based on the 200-WMA, I would consider that the guy can sustainably withdraw at a rate of $55k per year, which is nearly double his current salary.  Of course, this second guy could wait or continue to invest into bitcoin to continue to grow his BTC stash, yet he would not necessarily need to continue to add to his BTC investment in order for his sustainable withdrawal rate to go up as long as he is either not withdrawing or withdrawing way below the 10% rate.

Another thing is that there are various stages between the first guy with ONLY 4 years investing into bitcoin and the second guy with 9 years in vesting into bitcoin, and within those various stages, there can be assessments in regards to whether the bitcoin stash is enough or not... and frequently, I consider that 4 years of accumulating bitcoin is not enough, yet surely when we start to get to points of 6-9 years and above, we might have had enough money put into bitcoin and also enough passage of time that we end up getting into a position that we might be able to sustainably live off of our bitcoin.

For sure we know that past results do not guarantee future results, yet we can still make assessments along the way in terms of our having had put value into bitcoin and trying to figure out if we have accumulated enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin in order to start to sustainably withdraw from our bitcoin stash.

The main point here is that while the profits are much higher in other coins or tokens, the risk is much higher. Because there is a possibility of losing your money completely, but when you invest in Bitcoin, you do not have to fear losing your interest completely if you can keep your wallet safe.

Of course when investing into shitcoins we likely do need to pay more attention to our entrance into and our exit out of the various shitcoins in order to attempt to be profitable (or to potentially out perform bitcoin in the short term), which might be more of a gamble than any kind of skillful ability to figure out.  

Surely bitcoin is in a different category in terms of it long term fundamentals, and even though there are always execution risks and there are exogenous risks (risks outside of our execution), we can figure out our position size in terms of how we might consider the ongoing strength of bitcoin's investment thesis... so that we can figure out our own level of aggressiveness in investing into bitcoin and how much value that we are willing to put into bitcoin as compared with other places that we might put value.  We are not necessarily going to arrive at the same conclusion regarding how aggressively that we might choose to allocate into bitcoin within our own resources (and the strength of our cashflow management systems).  

In regards to keeping our own private keys, then surely there are some of us who would not want to keep more than 10% of our bitcoin with third parties, so we would need to learn how to secure our private keys (wallets), and so no one would want to lose his bitcoin investment based on his own carelessness in terms of how his coins (private keys) are stored.

[Negotiation]

Maybe an example could be helpful?  If a guy with a $30k-ish income had been investing $100 per week into bitcoin over the past 4 years, then he would have had invested right around $21k and he would have had accumulated about 0.58 BTC..  

I want to invest in the DCA method, but it is difficult for me to earn $100 per week. In that case, it may be a good idea to deposit any amount of Bitcoin, more or less.

So really after 4 years of investing fairly steadily into bitcoin his average cost per BTC would be right around the same at the 200-WMA, so surely he might feel that he is in a pretty good place in regards to how much BTC he had been able to accumulate, yet he still might feel that he is quite far from his ability to live off of the BTC since 0.58 BTC would have a 200-WMA value of $26.2k and a spot value of $50.6k.    I have been frequently suggesting that a guy can withdraw 10% dollar value based on the 200-WMA, yet with current values that would ONLY allow this particular guy to withdraw at $2,620 per year, which is way below his current income.

But here it seems to me that when someone deposits Bitcoin for four years, they will not achieve this minimal profit. I think they may be able to earn or make a profit of two to three times the original budget, or much more. In this case, the time at which they invest may be important. If we look at the past years, those who have invested in Bitcoin consistently have actually been able to achieve much higher profits.

[SilverCryptoBullet]

I want to invest in the DCA method, but it is difficult for me to earn $100 per week. In that case, it may be a good idea to deposit any amount of Bitcoin, more or less.

You need to deposit something for purchasing bitcoin and you don't deposit your bitcoin to purchase bitcoin.

$100 weekly fund for DCA can be big but with a common minimal trading value on centralized exchanges like $10, you can do your DCA weekly with $10, $20 or $30 and I think it's good from $20 and $30 for weekly DCA.

With $20 weekly DCA, do it for 3 years since 3 years ago, you will have total invested capital $3,140, total value now $6,206 and ROI is 97.66%.
https://dcabtc.com?sd=2022-03-30&sda=3_years&f=weekly&d=3_years&ac=2000&c=false

With $30 weekly DCA, do it for 3 years since 3 years ago, you will have total invested capital $4,710, total value now $9,310 and ROI is 97.66%.
https://dcabtc.com?sd=2022-03-30&sda=3_years&f=weekly&d=3_years&ac=3000&c=false

Very good results and ROIs from only $20 and $30 weekly DCA. If you manage to have $20 or $30 for weekly DCA, and have enough discipline to do it for 3 years or longer, your investment will be very profitable.

The HODL camp map can be helpful for your DCA plan.
https://hodl.camp/

[JayJuanGee]

Maybe an example could be helpful?  If a guy with a $30k-ish income had been investing $100 per week into bitcoin over the past 4 years, then he would have had invested right around $21k and he would have had accumulated about 0.58 BTC..  

I want to invest in the DCA method, but it is difficult for me to earn $100 per week. In that case, it may be a good idea to deposit any amount of Bitcoin, more or less.

Of course, I am using $100 per week as an example, and you have to adjust your investment amount to your own discretionary income and not go beyond your discretionary income... maybe starting out with 50% of your discretionary income at most when you start.. but you have to figure out your numbers in terms of what might be reasonable and/or how aggressive that you can afford to invest into bitcoin without over doing it, and if you are investing beyond your discretionary income then you are over doing it.

Discretionary income is the amount of money that you have left over after you have accounted for your expenses. If you make mistakes and you invest too much and you think that you are getting in and out of bitcoin in less than a 4-10 year or more timeline, then you might not be thinking about bitcoin properly. It can take a long time to build an investment, and it will take even longer if you end up fucking things up by investing too much and wrecking yourself..

So really after 4 years of investing fairly steadily into bitcoin his average cost per BTC would be right around the same at the 200-WMA, so surely he might feel that he is in a pretty good place in regards to how much BTC he had been able to accumulate, yet he still might feel that he is quite far from his ability to live off of the BTC since 0.58 BTC would have a 200-WMA value of $26.2k and a spot value of $50.6k.    I have been frequently suggesting that a guy can withdraw 10% dollar value based on the 200-WMA, yet with current values that would ONLY allow this particular guy to withdraw at $2,620 per year, which is way below his current income.

But here it seems to me that when someone deposits Bitcoin for four years, they will not achieve this minimal profit. I think they may be able to earn or make a profit of two to three times the original budget, or much more. In this case, the time at which they invest may be important. If we look at the past years, those who have invested in Bitcoin consistently have actually been able to achieve much higher profits.

There are no guarantees, and past performance also does not guarantee future results. You have to figure out how much you are going to put into bitcoin with a realization that you could lose up to 100%, while at the same time, bitcoin also remains an asymmetric bet to the upside so you could end experiencing price gains that are much greater than your investment amount, like you suggested. Bitcoin continues to have a lot of upside potential, but sure, going up is not guaranteed.

I frequently suggest that guys should put their finances in such a position that they can invest into bitcoin as aggressively as they are able to without overdoing it, and if you overdo it, then there is no one to blame but yourself, so you have to both figure out your budget, but you also have to figure out how to strengthen your cashflow management practices, which also likely means that you should have back up funds such as emergency funds and various reserve funds, so that you never have to sell any of your bitcoin at a time that is not completely of your own choosing...which again I suggest to be 4-10 years or longer before you even start to consider selling bitcoin unless you have been able to front load your bitcoin investment...and for sure, you need to figure out how to move from bitcoin accumulation phase an then to maintenance phase and then to some kind of a sustainable withdrawal phase or some other variations of those various phases of your bitcoin investment journey.. which could well be a lifetime journey of having bitcoin as part of your investment portfolio.

I want to invest in the DCA method, but it is difficult for me to earn $100 per week. In that case, it may be a good idea to deposit any amount of Bitcoin, more or less.

You need to deposit something for purchasing bitcoin and you don't deposit your bitcoin to purchase bitcoin.

$100 weekly fund for DCA can be big but with a common minimal trading value on centralized exchanges like $10, you can do your DCA weekly with $10, $20 or $30 and I think it's good from $20 and $30 for weekly DCA.

With $20 weekly DCA, do it for 3 years since 3 years ago, you will have total invested capital $3,140, total value now $6,206 and ROI is 97.66%.
https://dcabtc.com?sd=2022-03-30&sda=3_years&f=weekly&d=3_years&ac=2000&c=false

With $30 weekly DCA, do it for 3 years since 3 years ago, you will have total invested capital $4,710, total value now $9,310 and ROI is 97.66%.
https://dcabtc.com?sd=2022-03-30&sda=3_years&f=weekly&d=3_years&ac=3000&c=false

Very good results and ROIs from only $20 and $30 weekly DCA. If you manage to have $20 or $30 for weekly DCA, and have enough discipline to do it for 3 years or longer, your investment will be very profitable.

The HODL camp map can be helpful for your DCA plan.
https://hodl.camp/

Those are all valid points (and pieces of information) SilverCryptoBullet, yet we know that past performance does not guarantee future results.

Edited to add my response to SilverCryptoBullet

[Joy- maker]

 I really find all this your advice very helpful and I have learnt alot from what you just said here, because there was a point I was buying bitcoin aggressively going beyond my financial capacity because of a DIP that occur and my friends where buying bitcoin aggressively so I decided to follow which almost made me to invest all I had in bitcoin, but thanks for your advice that everyone should stick to their fanancial capacity and not to over do.

[JayJuanGee]

I really find all this your advice very helpful and I have learnt alot from what you just said here, because there was a point I was buying bitcoin aggressively going beyond my financial capacity because of a DIP that occur and my friends where buying bitcoin aggressively so I decided to follow which almost made me to invest all I had in bitcoin, but thanks for your advice that everyone should stick to their fanancial capacity and not to over do.

There are so many folks who do not have any investing experience, so frequently, they have to figure out how to set boundaries, especially if many of us know that if we go into something like bitcoin, we should be investing an amount that we are not expecting to see or to access for 4-10 years or more into the future.

There are surely some folks who are already used to investing, so they already know how to put away a certain amount of money without going overboard and without going into money that they might need for their expenses, either in the short term or some further out point down the road, so if we trajectory out our income and our expenses, we can get ballpark ideas for how much money we need each month, and surely the money is more important to specifically have during the month that it is due, yet if there might be some expenses we know are going to be happening 2-3 months or even more into the future, we should be trying to make sure that our budget is going to cover those further out expenses, whether they are coming from actually then cash flows, or if for some of the expenses, we may well have to save up in advance to make sure that we have enough cash on-hand when the expenses come due at the later date down the road.

So, as you know, I am not against the idea of investing as aggressively as you can, even though you have to also account for your own boundaries, and if you are not sure if the money is available or is going to be needed in the future for expenses, it is likely better to error on the side of keeping your money available until your expenses are confirmed rather than investing it and then realizing that you made a mistake.. and sure we all make mistakes, which is another reason to build and maintain various kinds of back up funds.

[Sim_card]

I really find all this your advice very helpful and I have learnt alot from what you just said here, because there was a point I was buying bitcoin aggressively going beyond my financial capacity because of a DIP that occur and my friends where buying bitcoin aggressively so I decided to follow which almost made me to invest all I had in bitcoin, but thanks for your advice that everyone should stick to their fanancial capacity and not to over do.

There are so many folks who do not have any investing experience, so frequently, they have to figure out how to set boundaries, especially if many of us know that if we go into something like bitcoin, we should be investing an amount that we are not expecting to see or to access for 4-10 years or more into the future.

There are surely some folks who are already used to investing, so they already know how to put away a certain amount of money without going overboard and without going into money that they might need for their expenses, either in the short term or some further out point down the road, so if we trajectory out our income and our expenses, we can get ballpark ideas for how much money we need each month, and surely the money is more important to specifically have during the month that it is due, yet if there might be some expenses we know are going to be happening 2-3 months or even more into the future, we should be trying to make sure that our budget is going to cover those further out expenses, whether they are coming from actually then cash flows, or if for some of the expenses, we may well have to save up in advance to make sure that we have enough cash on-hand when the expenses come due at the later date down the road.

So, as you know, I am not against the idea of investing as aggressively as you can, even though you have to also account for your own boundaries, and if you are not sure if the money is available or is going to be needed in the future for expenses, it is likely better to error on the side of keeping your money available until your expenses are confirmed rather than investing it and then realizing that you made a mistake.. and sure we all make mistakes, which is another reason to build and maintain various kinds of back up funds.

Various Back up funds are very essential when investing in bitcoin because it gives you more advantage to keep on growing your bitcoin portfolio no matter whatever emergency that will hit your way unknown to you. I agree with you that it's better to keep money for future expenses and if there is no expenses yet, we should not use the money to buy bitcoin ignoring the fact that future expenses are bound to take us unaware. Because if you have used the money to invest when we are faced with such expenses and we don't have the availability of our back up funds, it will make one tap into his bitcoin investment which is not a good practice.

[BADERO]

I really find all this your advice very helpful and I have learnt alot from what you just said here, because there was a point I was buying bitcoin aggressively going beyond my financial capacity because of a DIP that occur and my friends where buying bitcoin aggressively so I decided to follow which almost made me to invest all I had in bitcoin, but thanks for your advice that everyone should stick to their fanancial capacity and not to over do.

So, as you know, I am not against the idea of investing as aggressively as you can, even though you have to also account for your own boundaries, and if you are not sure if the money is available or is going to be needed in the future for expenses, it is likely better to error on the side of keeping your money available until your expenses are confirmed rather than investing it and then realizing that you made a mistake.. and sure we all make mistakes, which is another reason to build and maintain various kinds of back up funds.

Even the best investment opportunities mean nothing without proper financial safety nets, i can confirm that cuz I did the same thing last year, I bought a significant amount when Bitcoin was around $55K but due to bad money management, I had an emergency and was forced to sell and yet, I had the chance to buy at such a low price that in 10 years, I could’ve had a huge amount of capital. You are absolutely right money management is one of the most crucial things. You have to know how to save and be prepared for anything