2024 Diff thread happy New Years.

[philipma1957]

Just opened it.

here is a link to old thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5431167.0






we are right at 100%

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   823890  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.3735%  (1363 / 1357.93 expected, 5.07 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   67305906902031.39                            
Current Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                            
Next Difficulty:   between 72260493554650 and 72290424462341
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.3532% and +0.3948%
Previous Retarget:   December 23, 2023 at 1:01 AM  (+6.9834%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 11:46 PM  (in 4d 12h 25m 42s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 11:54 PM  (in 4d 12h 33m 34s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 22h 44m 59s and 13d 22h 52m 51s

[1714233430]

1714233430

[1714233430]

1714233430

[paid2]

Only 16,108 blocks left, before the next BTC halving.

I am very curious to see what will be the post-halving difficulty... I wonder if it will drop significantly or if we will have a crazy difficulty like >100T this year

[joker_josue]

we are right at 100%

Taking into account the situation we have been experiencing in recent times, very high fees, the fact that there are no major changes in speed, could this be a sign that we will continue to see high fees?

[philipma1957]

we are right at 100%

Taking into account the situation we have been experiencing in recent times, very high fees, the fact that there are no major changes in speed, could this be a sign that we will continue to see high fees?

High are going to last for at least 5 months. Say may 31.

Just look at last year.  they were high for over 6 out of 12 months.

With rewards dropping to 3.125 miners (kingpin massive mines) will want high fees

[joker_josue]

With rewards dropping to 3.125 miners (kingpin massive mines) will want high fees

Without a doubt, this will be difficult to combat.
I just hope that people don't get used to this, and stop debating the subject, ending up being forgotten and leaving us with these levels of super high rates.

[philipma1957]

With rewards dropping to 3.125 miners (kingpin massive mines) will want high fees

Without a doubt, this will be difficult to combat.
I just hope that people don't get used to this, and stop debating the subject, ending up being forgotten and leaving us with these levels of super high rates.

The easy short-term solve is do KYC with an exchange that allow use of LN.

Kraken does it.


hodl 90% of your coins in your wallet

put 10% in kraken.

[stompix]

With rewards dropping to 3.125 miners (kingpin massive mines) will want high fees

Damn, and I was just looking at my new 7 cents/kwh tariff for the year!
No expansion plans for me.../s , tons of sarcasm!

Massive miners don't care that much phil, they don't run on their own money, people don't care about results, they care about shares,  the guy running this is not looking at his wallet he's looking at his ceo wage, MARA shares spiked to $31, even now adjusting to the $20 areas it's still 550.59%, RIOT is at 328.04% both beating Bitcoin with a large margin.

Big miners and us plebs live a different world with different rules!

Without a doubt, this will be difficult to combat.

Pretty simple, you stop paying for it! 
When something becomes unfordable people ditch it and move to something else, then that thing becomes the main gateway for payments.

Have you seen the discussions here about the payments? We're on bitcointalk and we're talking about people getting paid in doge or ltc, maybe soon even usdt, on bitcointalk!  I stopped myself before saying that maybe we should tart using Paypal! 
Small payments on chain were done one way or the other anyhow, ordinals or no ordinals, image we indeed would have 100  million bitcoin users, how would that work?

Consolidate small inputs by the 4 or 5 (I don't know how much goes before 0.5kb) with 21sat/b with Viabtc and just hold, it makes like absolutely no sense now to transaction on chain, and most likely will never make sense in the future unless you deal in thousands in $ value.

Latest Block:   824171  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.3862%  (1644 / 1637.68 expected, 6.32 ahead)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 6:43 AM  (in 2d 13h 45m 41s)

6 blocks, and nearly 400 to go, this could turn negative any moment, that 6.9% adjustment last time was a fluke!

[joker_josue]

Have you seen the discussions here about the payments? We're on bitcointalk and we're talking about people getting paid in doge or ltc, maybe soon even usdt, on bitcointalk!  I stopped myself before saying that maybe we should tart using Paypal! 
Small payments on chain were done one way or the other anyhow, ordinals or no ordinals, image we indeed would have 100  million bitcoin users, how would that work?

Analyzing it this way, the idea remains that Bitcoin was doomed from birth to be a coin for commercial use. But that's what it was made for.
I continue to think that Bitcoin can be an excellent tool for commercial exchanges, large or small. I recognize that some existing solutions do not allow this to be as functional as I would like.
Now, I also believe that the global bitcoin community will find a solution to better manage this issue.

~~

I didn't understand, this free one. 

[philipma1957]

Have you seen the discussions here about the payments? We're on bitcointalk and we're talking about people getting paid in doge or ltc, maybe soon even usdt, on bitcointalk!  I stopped myself before saying that maybe we should tart using Paypal!  
Small payments on chain were done one way or the other anyhow, ordinals or no ordinals, image we indeed would have 100  million bitcoin users, how would that work?

Analyzing it this way, the idea remains that Bitcoin was doomed from birth to be a coin for commercial use. But that's what it was made for.
I continue to think that Bitcoin can be an excellent tool for commercial exchanges, large or small. I recognize that some existing solutions do not allow this to be as functional as I would like.
Now, I also believe that the global bitcoin community will find a solution to better manage this issue.

~~

I didn't understand, this free one.  

It serves two purposes it draws attention to my signature. I also

 used it to make a sign to give a snow blower away.

I took a screen shot of it blown up and printed it on my printer. then used tape on it and a larger piece of cardboard. lets see how long it takes for someone to take it away .

I would think under 2 days.

Snow blower is gone.

[mikeywith]

I am very curious to see what will be the post-halving difficulty... I wonder if it will drop significantly or if we will have a crazy difficulty like >100T this year

It mostly has to do with what the price will be then, but many people will be surprised not to see an immediate drop in difficulty, so it's probably a good time to refresh everybody's memory on what happened on the previous halving.

The 2020 halving took place on the 11th of May , difficulty was 20.6T,  price was in the 8-10k range and stayed that way until October, so it had no major impact on what happened right after the halving.

So what was the next epoch difficulty post-halving? 25T, that's roughly 20% increase despite the 50% drop in reward, then two weeks later it dropped back to the pre-halving levels of 20T and stayed there until 4th of July epoch change, so nearly 2 months with no downside action on the difficulty which was contrary to what most people believed would happen.

However, two months were long enough for many miners to capitulate and accept "defeat", because the 4th of July epoch had a massive difficulty drop from 20T to 14T which is a 30% drop in difficulty, and that was the lowest difficulty we have seen since then.

The takeaway from the previous halving is

1- Do not expect an immediate drop in hashrate
2- Noway on earth we are getting a 50% drop in difficulty (not half miners have to leave, and those who stay would just accept fewer rewards and move on)

If I had to guess what's going to happen the next halving is even "worse" or "better" depending on how you look at it, because back in 2020 there were no U.S investors' money, no large mining corporations like we have today, most miners did not have long-term cheap electricity contracts (they do now), so the current large U.S players will be able to resist for a lot longer until one of 3 things happen.

A- One large player falls and lets the others enjoy his rewards.
B- All of them reduce their cost by downclocking their gears to the most efficient point.
C- Price goes up to make up for up for the halving.

I don't think C is going to happen soon enough after the halving, A is somewhat likely but B seems the most reasonable outcome at least for the 6 months period post halving, and my guess is we won't see anything more than 20% drop in difficulty, so if diff is at 80T prior to the halving, a few months later we might drop to 65T and that's the lowest it's ever going to be.

[kano]

...

It serves two purposes it draws attention to my signature. I also

 used it to make a sign to give a snow blower away.

I took a screen shot of it blown up and printed it on my printer. then used tape on it and a larger piece of cardboard. lets see how long it takes for someone to take it away .

I would think under 2 days.

So it's off topic spam.
Please delete it.

[joker_josue]

What is not off topic is that suddenly, just a few hours before adjustment and difficulty, the prospect of adjustment increased to almost 2%.

Latest Block:   824443  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.7044%  (1916 / 1883.89 expected, 32.11 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   67305906902031.39                            
Current Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                            
Next Difficulty:   between 73241494610784 and 73244594057693
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.7156% and +1.7199%
Previous Retarget:   December 23, 2023 at 6:01 AM  (+6.9834%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 12:23 AM  (in 0d 16h 23m 14s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 12:24 AM  (in 0d 16h 24m 4s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 18h 22m 9s and 13d 18h 22m 59s

It's incredible how 2 or 3 days ago, it was at zero, and now it's at 2%. Suddenly everyone turned on the machines?  

[alh]

While I appreciate those folks that have researched and considered what the next halving might look like based on 2020, I would urge caution in doing so. The COVID pandemic disrupted most of the planet in terms of supply chains, shipping, and overall economic activity. I don't think that Bitcoin would be immune to that as well. Lots of external forces directly influence BTC price which can drive a lot of other actions in the overall sphere of Bitcoin.

Just my thought.

[philipma1957]

While I appreciate those folks that have researched and considered what the next halving might look like based on 2020, I would urge caution in doing so. The COVID pandemic disrupted most of the planet in terms of supply chains, shipping, and overall economic activity. I don't think that Bitcoin would be immune to that as well. Lots of external forces directly influence BTC price which can drive a lot of other actions in the overall sphere of Bitcoin.

Just my thought.

And one more factor

rewards of 3.125
fees of       1

mean a 4.125 block

which is not quite a real ½ ing

Even when we were 12.5 and fees were high

we went from 14
to                    7 for a while

which was a lot more like a real ½ ing



At stompix here in the USA I can pay with Zelle up to 2000 usd a day pretty much instantly and free.

I really do not need to use the chain for amounts under 2000 usd

I have Zelle up to $2000

I also can do nicehash LN wallet for free well for 0.00000014 btc I mine 3000 a month to them .

I also can use kraken LN wallet I do not keep a lot on kraken say $500.


Put I could send them up to $10000 in cash buy btc with it and do a large LN (will not be doing that) I would use the chain for 2000 usd and higher.

[stompix]

So we just had a positive one again

Previous Retarget:   Today at 2:36 AM  (+1.6547%)

Probably the least surprising adjustment for a while.

Current Pace:   94.8907%  (93 / 98.01 expected, 5.01 behind)

Pace looks bad but it's just half a day, by next day it can be 5 blocks ahead.
I don't think anything spectacular will happen this epoch either, doubt too much gear can be bought online after the holiday or that anything out of ordinary happen with tariffs, someone important enough losing precentral prices per kwh, so not holding my breath for anything.

-----

That aside, is anyone mining at antpool, and top of that encountering problems with the login? That damn slide loading and loading ..and..

[philipma1957]

So we just had a positive one again

Previous Retarget:   Today at 2:36 AM  (+1.6547%)

Probably the least surprising adjustment for a while.

Current Pace:   94.8907%  (93 / 98.01 expected, 5.01 behind)

Pace looks bad but it's just half a day, by next day it can be 5 blocks ahead.
I don't think anything spectacular will happen this epoch either, doubt too much gear can be bought online after the holiday or that anything out of ordinary happen with tariffs, someone important enough losing precentral prices per kwh, so not holding my breath for anything.

-----

That aside, is anyone mining at antpool, and top of that encountering problems with the login? That damn slide loading and loading ..and..

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   824794  (13 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   88.8415%  (251 / 282.53 expected, 31.53 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                             
Current Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                           
Next Difficulty:   between 65150574803063 and 71145683815508
Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.9936% and -2.8033%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 7:36 PM  (+1.6547%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 20, 2024 at 5:27 AM  (in 12d 10h 46m 0s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 21, 2024 at 1:48 PM  (in 13d 19h 6m 50s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 9h 51m 15s and 15d 18h 12m 5s

251 vs 282 down 31

and mempool is duh crowd again

time to stop the downclocking at foundry and then boost back to 0 behind

or I know just variance.

At kano what is the math on 251 instead of 281

[joker_josue]

So did everyone remember to turn off the miners?
How is it that in less than 2 days, after the difficulty change of +1%, now the forecast is almost 10%? 

Any logical explanation for this?

[philipma1957]

So did everyone remember to turn off the miners?
How is it that in less than 2 days, after the difficulty change of +1%, now the forecast is almost 10%? 

Any logical explanation for this?

downclocking by foundry in order to pre crowd the mempool.

this was done because they would make a ton of money if the NTF jumps up and prices go to 60k.

fees will be huge in a matter of a few days. say thursday this week.

or maybe a storm knocked out a few vast mines.

I am betting on hash manipulation by large mines.

[joker_josue]

downclocking by foundry in order to pre crowd the mempool.

Is there any data that helps understand this type of scenario?

I am betting on hash manipulation by large mines.

I share the same idea. I find this sequence of events over several weeks/months very strange.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   824911  (24 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   88.0149%  (368 / 418.11 expected, 50.11 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                            
Current Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                            
Next Difficulty:   between 64505580812468 and 70065422773482
Next Difficulty Change:   between -11.8748% and -4.2791%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 7:36 PM  (+1.6547%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 20, 2024 at 10:47 AM  (in 11d 17h 29m 38s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 21, 2024 at 5:21 PM  (in 13d 0h 4m 5s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 15h 10m 44s and 15d 21h 45m 12s

quite a bit off pace 368 vs 418

and coins are near 47k


and what is the old mempool up to lets see. here is the last 7 days


first 3-4 days before the diff jump diff rose showing possible overclock and memory pool shrank in count also showing result of blocks being made quickly we lowered to 252k or 255k backed up tx in pool right at the jump.




we are now at 282-285k. tx backed up due to slow blocks.

see below.  so if you want to argue that foundry is testing my raise the fee concept this evidence certainly is in favor of what I said.
 But not conclusive at all.   much like old paternity test. If one guy is type a+ and the other guy is type B-

you could rule one out as the dad. but not prove the one you could not rule out as the dad.


Does this continue to the ETF announcement we will see. If it does  then whales like a mofo it looks more like that is what was done.