Buy Buy Buy or Sell Sell Sell?

[obuoma]

The best time to accumulate Bitcoin is not when the price is low, although it is the traders that think in this direction because they want to buy low and sell on an increase,

That's not the mindset of the traders only, holders purchase on dip knowing that bitcoin will definitely increase and it increase will be greater than now, example, bitcoin hits sixty thousands [60k] last year, and before it got to sixty thousands, the price were below 60k, but this year the price hits hundreds and twenty four thousand [124k] which nobody knew that the price will increase to such price, even next year the price can be more than the current price, so immediately the price of Bitcoin falls from 124k many rush and purchase knowing the next move will be higher than 124k.

Next you mean, I hope that's not 2026? because that will be a kick off of bearish market or possibly December 2025, so you should be precised when using words, next cycle is possibly the next time bitcoin gets such heights.

Last year 60k and this year 120+k is only the fact that 2025 was a full bullish season, so let's be guided so those who are new wouldn't be thinking bitcoin is going to be  booming every year.

How did you know that 2026 will be the kick off of bearish market? You may be following the 4 year's cycle but a lot have changed now which means there is no guarantee that Bitcoin will follow that textbook pattern any longer. I hope you still remembered that Bitcoin made a new all time high before the halving, something that never happened in the precious market cycle so you should be ready for some surprises come 2026. You will be making a terrible mistake if you consider selling all your Bitcoin this year and hoping to replenish them next year in your imagined bear market, you might end up buying Bitcoin around $200k or above, you know how painful that will be for someone who had the privilege of buying below $100k. Just keep holding and if you still have some funds, buy more and don't look at the price

[laijsica]

The best time to accumulate Bitcoin is not when the price is low, although it is the traders that think in this direction because they want to buy low and sell on an increase,

That's not the mindset of the traders only, holders purchase on dip knowing that bitcoin will definitely increase and it increase will be greater than now, example, bitcoin hits sixty thousands [60k] last year, and before it got to sixty thousands, the price were below 60k, but this year the price hits hundreds and twenty four thousand [124k] which nobody knew that the price will increase to such price, even next year the price can be more than the current price, so immediately the price of Bitcoin falls from 124k many rush and purchase knowing the next move will be higher than 124k.

When Bitcoin holders analyze the market and know that its price is likely to go up in the future, they want to buy more during bullish times. I see some experienced investors. It is really amazing that they save regularly and sometimes buy more when Bitcoin is increasing. But usually we buy Bitcoin during price declines and increase holdings. It is most ideal that if you buy Bitcoin in any price trend, your holding will increase and the UP will continue to decrease. Compared to the same period last year, the price of Bitcoin has doubled, which was only $28k at this time in 2023. This means that in the first quarter of October 2024, the price was $60k, which is $120k at the same time in 2025. This continuation indicates a surprising climbing trend.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

JayJuanGee I think in other for someone to prevent making mistakes when he or she has reached overaccumulation stage the best thing to do is to withdraw only when the price of Bitcoin doubles, I learnt this from you and it's very effective, with this strategy it won't affect one's Bitcoin investment now if one is using this strategy in withdrawing his or her Bitcoin he or she don't need to depend on Bitcoin only he or she needs to be working since it may take a long time before a price doubles in Bitcoin so while waiting for the price to double he or she can be using the income he or she gets from there job to get there basic needs.

Don't worry about making mistakes, since we learn from our mistakes, yet at the same time, if we do make mistakes, we would like to mitigate such mistakes so that we are damaged ONLY minimally, if we do make mistakes.

Yet, to your main point, there are a variety of ways to deal with managing your BTC holdings after reaching overaccumulation status.

One of the things about reaching overaccumulation status is that it increases options, yet there are likely levels and even differing ways of measuring overaccumulation status, so in that regard, if we are barely at overaccumulated status, then we might not have as many options as someone who is many times higher than overaccumulation status.

Let's say for example, a guy who had made $50k per year had been investing into bitcoin for the past 9 years at $200 per week which would have been about 25% of his income at about $10k per year, so he may well could have had invested $90k or $100k into bitcoin over such time, and maybe he accumulated right around 16 BTC.   He might be feeling pretty good about his BTC stash, since his goal was to be able to quit his job, but he wanted to make sure that his bitcoin would support at least an $80k per year income, and he cal see that right now right around 15 BTC would perpetually be able to afford an income of $80k per year, so in that regard he has enough or more than enough BTC, and he even has 1 BTC extra to give him a little bit of a cushion if he were to want to start to withdraw $6,666k per month.  So that would be a time based sustainable withdrawal.

The withdrawal of 10% of your bitcoin holdings every time the BTC price doubles would be a price based sustainable withdrawal, yet that requires the BTC price to double to be able to withdraw from it, even though you could divide it into smaller increments, such as selling 2.5% every time the BTC price went up 25%.

So there can be various options to employ sustainable withdrawal that might differ in terms of how they are employed, whether they are time based or price based and/or in terms of how they are employed.

The only time you can get into a problem is when you depend only on your Bitcoin investment even if you have accumulated Enough or you have reached overaccumulation stage you don't have to depend only your Bitcoin investment for your survival except you have thousands of Bitcoin

You don't need thousands of bitcoin.  I think that my formula for withdrawing based on the 200-WMA value, the withdrawal of up to 10% per year based on the 200-WMA valuation of your holdings is able to work if you know how to employ and not to overdo it and maybe to cut back on the withdrawals if the BTC Spot price goes to less than 25% above the 200-WMA and it seems to me that right now, if you have at least 15 bitcoin, you could sustainably withdraw $80k per year and even increase your dollar value by 7% per year, and it should be sustainable at that level.. yet of course, you have to monitor that you are not overly withdrawing and/or that the BTC price dynamics have not changed so much as to cause needs to reconsider the withdrawal formula.

Part of the trick is to make sure that the BTC value is not getting depleted, meaning that you are not withdrawing past your limit, and surely if you have a bit of an extra cushion, such as the guy who has 16 BTC rather than 15 BTC, then it is quite likely that the formula will work out better, and you will not mistakenly overdraft too much too soon from your holdings and/or overly deplete it in such a way that it is no longer able to grow sufficiently to support your targeted income, which is $80k per year (with a 7% per year increase) in my example.

[edited out].......
Once a person reaches overaccumulation status then he might choose to pause any new buying, and he might have a period where he is neither buying or selling, and perhaps once he starts to withdraw, then if the dollar value of his bitcoin holdings is growing faster than his withdrawal rate then he does not need to keep buying..
Do we need to give an example?

It is optional to keep buying once a guy reaches overaccumulation status, and sure he might make mistakes and come to conclude that he is in overaccumulation status and he is not.  He also might not really know what overaccumulation status is, so if he does not know, then he is also more likely to make mistakes.

This is really a good phase that will happen to investor since it will lessen up the pressure of thinking about they should buy more Bitcoin since for reaching that level is like they have freedom to choose whether they continue buy now or just relax then do this later since they already hit their targets.

But I would rather choose to buy more since for many good things happened in terms of adoption and recognition. My confidence level goes high that I can use Bitcoin for retirement, that's why I continue accumulating then let see if I could able to hit that goal without getting bothered by future events, but most likely will not since I know Bitcoin is good asset to hold.

There can be a certain lack of confidence that causes  a guy to want to make sure to have an extra cash cushion (or extra BTC cushion) beyond his target level so that he can make sure that he is withdrawing from within the overaccumulation status and not causing himself to go below overaccumulation status.  Guys are responsible for their own situations and to make sure that have adequately reached overaccumulation status and that they don't overly withdraw from their bitcoin, while knocking themselves out of overaccumulation status.

[edited out]

I get what you mean, Overaccumulation isn’t some fixed number, it’s more like a personal decision depending on the person's needs and comfort level. For example, let’s say someone has built up enough bitcoin over 8–10 years, and their holdings are growing at around 8–10% or more a year. If they’re only withdrawing about 3% to 5% a year for expenses, then technically their bitcoin stash is still growing even while they are already living off of it, so they don’t really need to keep buying although they can continue if they want to. The tricky part, like you said, is that people sometimes misjudge where they are, some stop too early thinking they’ve already made it and later regret it, while others never feel like they’ve reached enough and just keep stacking/accumulating forever. Honestly, the bigger mistakes usually happen earlier on like selling too soon or not accumulating enough during those early cycles like the first and second one.
At the end of the day, it comes down to experience and discipline. The longer someone has been accumulating bitcoin, the easier it gets for them to judge when they have crossed into that overaccumulation territory and shift their mindset from pure accumulation to careful management.

I think that you are getting the ideas pretty well, and surely when you are applying them to your own situation, as your bitcoin grows, then they will start to make more sense in terms of how to manage your holdings, since you will likely pass through phases of more aggressive bitcoin accumulation and then maybe less intense accumulation and then maybe only strategic accumulation, and so if you are paying attention to your stack size, then yeah, you might come across regrets in regards to how whimpily you had invested in your earlier years, when you could have had afforded to invest more aggressively, yet surely these are judgement calls that each guy has to make in terms of how aggressive he believe that he is able to be without overdoing it.  So, sometimes we punish ourselves afterwards for not being aggressive enough, yet it is not really a big mistake, since it is better to have had continued to invest through the years rather than not, so the no coiners will be in a worse situation, and really there will be a lot of folks in a worse situation who had not been accumulating bitcoin.

Surely part of the reason that i frequently repeat that guys should try to stack bitcoin as aggressively as they can without over doing it is because guys still have to determine those boundaries, and if they fuck it up by either over doing it or underdoing it, then they can ONLY  blame themselves, even though they cannot turn back the clock, but just attempt to accumulate BTC the best that they are able to accomplish under their own circumstances and within their discretionary income, and surely some guys may well be quite limited in terms of how much discretionary income that that they are able to generate to be able to invest more than 10% of their income into bitcoin... .. so they do the best that they can and realize that it takes time to build up a bitcoin investment, and even though some guys might be able to accomplish their building up in 4-6 years, there are plenty of guys who will take more than 2 cycles, and perhaps even 3-4 cycles before they really get to a point where they might start to feel that they are getting to a point where they can actually see where their overaccumulation amount would be.

[ZeroVinsonN]

The best time to accumulate Bitcoin is not when the price is low, although it is the traders that think in this direction because they want to buy low and sell on an increase while an investor will focus on the long term benefits and not the short term and this will result them in to consideration every time or condition of the market as an opportunity to increase the quantity of their Bitcoin as they buy all the time be it when the price is high or low and this is the best approach because, Bitcoin is for long term investment and not good for short term ( trading) buy when in high or low with dollar cost averaging.

There is actually nothing wrong with buying bitcoin when the price is low, buying the DIP is one major way to invest in bitcoin, where the problem comes up is when investors start waiting for the price of bitcoin to dip instead of continually accumulating, the become stagnated and can push their investment forward because they are waiting, but if during your accumulation a DIP happen then there is absolutely nothing wrong with it if you decide to buy the DIP as long as your finance can allow it, so buying when the price is low isn't just a trader's strategy, it's also an investor's strategy if they use it properly.

[edited out]

I think that you are getting the ideas pretty well, and surely when you are applying them to your own situation, as your bitcoin grows, then they will start to make more sense in terms of how to manage your holdings, since you will likely pass through phases of more aggressive bitcoin accumulation and then maybe less intense accumulation and then maybe only strategic accumulation, and so if you are paying attention to your stack size, then yeah, you might come across regrets in regards to how whimpily you had invested in your earlier years, when you could have had afforded to invest more aggressively, yet surely these are judgement calls that each guy has to make in terms of how aggressive he believe that he is able to be without overdoing it.  So, sometimes we punish ourselves afterwards for not being aggressive enough, yet it is not really a big mistake, since it is better to have had continued to invest through the years rather than not, so the no coiners will be in a worse situation, and really there will be a lot of folks in a worse situation who had not been accumulating bitcoin.

Stacking rarely plays out in a straight line. In the early years most people either hold back too much or go harder than their situations actually allows them to, and only with time do they find that middle ground inbetween, the regrets about being timid early on are just part of the investment journey what matters is that the stacking never stopped regardless of how the situations play out, because even a slow pace accumulation compounds across cycles and that’s where the big divide shows up between people who kept stacking versus people who didn’t start at all.

Surely part of the reason that i frequently repeat that guys should try to stack bitcoin as aggressively as they can without over doing it is because guys still have to determine those boundaries, and if they fuck it up by either over doing it or underdoing it, then they can ONLY  blame themselves, even though they cannot turn back the clock, but just attempt to accumulate BTC the best that they are able to accomplish under their own circumstances and within their discretionary income, and surely some guys may well be quite limited in terms of how much discretionary income that that they are able to generate to be able to invest more than 10% of their income into bitcoin... .. so they do the best that they can and realize that it takes time to build up a bitcoin investment, and even though some guys might be able to accomplish their building up in 4-6 years, there are plenty of guys who will take more than 2 cycles, and perhaps even 3-4 cycles before they really get to a point where they might start to feel that they are getting to a point where they can actually see where their overaccumulation amount would be.

Finding the line between pushing hard and staying sustainable is where people usually make themselves or eventually break themselves, buying aggressively but for short term is already a bad decisions, play it too safe and you look back wishing you had aimed higher,  Everyone’s income and risk tolerance are different, so the percentages don’t matter as much as being able to keep going year after year because It’s a long game, most people won’t feel anywhere near ‘overaccumulation’ until they’ve lived through two, three or even four cycles. By then, the difference between someone who stuck with their plan and someone who couldn’t hold discipline becomes massive.

[Grace333]

Yeah bro, a lot of people keep delaying because they are always waiting for that so called perfect dip, but truth is, Bitcoin doesn’t move according to anyone timing. If you keep waiting, you will most likely end up with nothing, because by the time you think the price will drop, it might actually pump even higher.
That is where DCA really makes sense, it takes away the pressure of trying to predict every move, and it helps you keep stacking bit by bit without stressing about timing. it’s not about buying at the absolute lowest price, it is about actually being in the market and holding long enough to enjoy the bigger growth..

Facts, bro. Too many people miss out because they want to catch that perfect dip, but in reality nobody can time Bitcoin perfectly. The best move is consistency, DCA keeps you in the game without stress, and over time those little stacks build into something big. At the end of the day, it’s not about being the smartest trader, it’s about having the discipline to stay in and let Bitcoin do its thing.

That is the real mindset. People stress too much trying to time the market, forgetting that even professionals get it wrong most times. DCA just keeps things simple, no pressure, no guessing, just steady accumulation.
With time, consistency always beats timing, and like you said, it is all about discipline and patience. Bitcoin always rewards those who stay long enough to let it play out..

[GIF-JOBS]

Yeah bro, a lot of people keep delaying because they are always waiting for that so called perfect dip, but truth is, Bitcoin doesn’t move according to anyone timing. If you keep waiting, you will most likely end up with nothing, because by the time you think the price will drop, it might actually pump even higher.
That is where DCA really makes sense, it takes away the pressure of trying to predict every move, and it helps you keep stacking bit by bit without stressing about timing. it’s not about buying at the absolute lowest price, it is about actually being in the market and holding long enough to enjoy the bigger growth..

Facts, bro. Too many people miss out because they want to catch that perfect dip, but in reality nobody can time Bitcoin perfectly. The best move is consistency, DCA keeps you in the game without stress, and over time those little stacks build into something big. At the end of the day, it’s not about being the smartest trader, it’s about having the discipline to stay in and let Bitcoin do its thing.

That is the real mindset. People stress too much trying to time the market, forgetting that even professionals get it wrong most times. DCA just keeps things simple, no pressure, no guessing, just steady accumulation.
With time, consistency always beats timing, and like you said, it is all about discipline and patience. Bitcoin always rewards those who stay long enough to let it play out..

In Bitcoin investment, investing consistently is the most effective, and DCA is a perfect strategy for this, just be consistent in buying Bitcoin without worrying about any kind of volatility, use it as an opportunity instead of being afraid of volatility, if you can buy Bitcoin at a low price, then more Satoshi will be deposited in your portfolio at a low price, then your profit is also likely to be much bigger. So just plan to buy with the right mindset and here you have to be consistent with your investment for the long term, because this will give you the possibility of giving you the maximum profit in the long term.

[Cossyblack]

The best time to accumulate Bitcoin is not when the price is low, although it is the traders that think in this direction because they want to buy low and sell on an increase,

That's not the mindset of the traders only, holders purchase on dip knowing that bitcoin will definitely increase and it increase will be greater than now, example, bitcoin hits sixty thousands [60k] last year, and before it got to sixty thousands, the price were below 60k, but this year the price hits hundreds and twenty four thousand [124k] which nobody knew that the price will increase to such price, even next year the price can be more than the current price, so immediately the price of Bitcoin falls from 124k many rush and purchase knowing the next move will be higher than 124k.

You re right, both traders and holders benefits from the market and also buys the Dips but all with a different mindset and thinking characteristics . A trader mindset of buying the Dip is to buy bitcoin at a lower rates and sells it back for quick profits,that's a poor mentality,an outdated strategy that doesn't yield good profits.  But an Investor doesn't think that way,he is always one steps ahead of the markets.Rather than trying to outsmart the market, he prefer buying bitcoin steadily & consistently by spreading out his investments to mitigate the risks.  At the End,he wins for stacking consistently,he finally reaches his over-accumulation Status.

[Dogedegen]

Don't worry about making mistakes, since we learn from our mistakes, yet at the same time, if we do make mistakes, we would like to mitigate such mistakes so that we are damaged ONLY minimally, if we do make mistakes.

Funny how average people treat mistakes. They make mistakes in other parts of their lives all the time and rarely do some of them learn from these mistakes. However when it comes to finances and stuff like that they run away. Afraid to make mistakes, afraid to make money. Does not make a lot of sense right? I have some simple rules here gathered from learning.

Make mistakes often, don't repeat mistakes and learn from them.
Avoid catastrophic mistakes.

That is it, no need to keep it complicated. This is simple and applies to everything from finances to other aspects of life.

Surely part of the reason that i frequently repeat that guys should try to stack bitcoin as aggressively as they can without over doing it is because guys still have to determine those boundaries, and if they fuck it up by either over doing it or underdoing it, then they can ONLY  blame themselves,

Realistically speaking yes but many shy away from admitting this. Actually many of those buttcoiners on reddit are people who are blaming everybody else for their failure to acquire Bitcoin on time.

[HistoLock]

The best time to accumulate Bitcoin is not when the price is low, although it is the traders that think in this direction because they want to buy low and sell on an increase,

That's not the mindset of the traders only, holders purchase on dip knowing that bitcoin will definitely increase and it increase will be greater than now, example, bitcoin hits sixty thousands [60k] last year, and before it got to sixty thousands, the price were below 60k, but this year the price hits hundreds and twenty four thousand [124k] which nobody knew that the price will increase to such price, even next year the price can be more than the current price, so immediately the price of Bitcoin falls from 124k many rush and purchase knowing the next move will be higher than 124k.

Next you mean, I hope that's not 2026? because that will be a kick off of bearish market or possibly December 2025, so you should be precised when using words, next cycle is possibly the next time bitcoin gets such heights.

Last year 60k and this year 120+k is only the fact that 2025 was a full bullish season, so let's be guided so those who are new wouldn't be thinking bitcoin is going to be  booming every year.

How did you know that 2026 will be the kick off of bearish market? You may be following the 4 year's cycle but a lot have changed now which means there is no guarantee that Bitcoin will follow that textbook pattern any longer. I hope you still remembered that Bitcoin made a new all time high before the halving, something that never happened in the precious market cycle so you should be ready for some surprises come 2026. You will be making a terrible mistake if you consider selling all your Bitcoin this year and hoping to replenish them next year in your imagined bear market, you might end up buying Bitcoin around $200k or above, you know how painful that will be for someone who had the privilege of buying below $100k. Just keep holding and if you still have some funds, buy more and don't look at the price

Yes, this is definitely wrong because he may have calculated it as a cycle of years which Bitcoin will never follow. No one can ever say in advance when exactly the bear market will start, but there are some experts who can predict the dynamics in the market but it will not completely match their analysis. However, I think since he made that calculation and calculated the market cycle and said that the bear market will start in 2026, I will never agree with this, rather I will say it is never possible, you cannot say for sure when the bear market will start. If he believes that the bear market will start in 2026, then of course his idea is wrong. However, I think since he is waiting for the bear market, he may be waiting to buy, but I would say that if he wants to buy, he can buy now with his specific funds. Because it may happen that if it does not happen in his planned time, or if there is a new surprise instead of a recession, what will he do? So I would say there is no need to wait, but he needs to buy now.  If he is interested in buying, he can buy without waiting for 2026.

[Platinumys]

The best time to accumulate Bitcoin is not when the price is low, although it is the traders that think in this direction because they want to buy low and sell on an increase,

That's not the mindset of the traders only, holders purchase on dip knowing that bitcoin will definitely increase and it increase will be greater than now, example, bitcoin hits sixty thousands [60k] last year, and before it got to sixty thousands, the price were below 60k, but this year the price hits hundreds and twenty four thousand [124k] which nobody knew that the price will increase to such price, even next year the price can be more than the current price, so immediately the price of Bitcoin falls from 124k many rush and purchase knowing the next move will be higher than 124k.

No one can predict in advance which direction the market will move next, that's why it's a challenge for big investors to decide when to buy Bitcoin. However, I think investors shouldn't analyze the market too much when investing in Bitcoin. There are many ways to analyze the market, but those who are interested in investing may think that the Bitcoin market was very low at this time last year, so the market may go down again this year, so that investor refrains from investing and waits for the market to go down. This is definitely a misconception, seeing that the market was at a low level last year, there is no reason to think that the Bitcoin market will go down in the future. Maybe those who are delaying investing so much may be waiting for the market to go down, but the market did not go down, but the market went up, but this opportunity will also be missed for all those investors.
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[SmartCharpa]

Sad enough there is nothing like a perfect Dip in Bitcoin investment and it is folks that just forge that and be deceiving theirselve and at same time wasting opportunity to use an accumulate Bitcoin by waiting for what they call perfect Dip. Someone who is serious and knows what is ahead will accumulate Bitcoin with all willingness. Those who are waiting for the so called perfect Dip sometimes they realize themselves and start accumulating and sometimes they don't... and opportunities will pass them by because of ignorant.

Many people have been missing the opportunity to invest in Bitcoin due to ignorance. Having knowledge about something is very important. Some people are still doubting Bitcoin and don’t know when to invest, whether at the dip or when the price is high. They believe that the dip will be the perfect time to invest, but it doesn’t work that way when it comes to Bitcoin. Perhaps they are just wasting a lot of time and missing future opportunities by not investing early. But with time, they will realise the chance they’ve been missing.

If you want to invest, then make use of DCA strategy, you can just keep on accumulating bitcoin gradually, but you don’t have to wait for bitcoin to dump before you going to buy, if you waiting for dip, then you not serious.

The DCA method is the best way to invest in Bitcoin without affecting your other needs, and you will be comfortable while accumulating based on the plan you made. Sure, anyone who prefers to wait for the dip is not serious about investing. We cannot determine its future; but we believe it will be greater than what it has already proven in previous years

[Derekfunds]

Yeah bro, a lot of people keep delaying because they are always waiting for that so called perfect dip, but truth is, Bitcoin doesn’t move according to anyone timing. If you keep waiting, you will most likely end up with nothing, because by the time you think the price will drop, it might actually pump even higher.
That is where DCA really makes sense, it takes away the pressure of trying to predict every move, and it helps you keep stacking bit by bit without stressing about timing. it’s not about buying at the absolute lowest price, it is about actually being in the market and holding long enough to enjoy the bigger growth..

Facts, bro. Too many people miss out because they want to catch that perfect dip, but in reality nobody can time Bitcoin perfectly. The best move is consistency, DCA keeps you in the game without stress, and over time those little stacks build into something big. At the end of the day, it’s not about being the smartest trader, it’s about having the discipline to stay in and let Bitcoin do its thing.

That is the real mindset. People stress too much trying to time the market, forgetting that even professionals get it wrong most times. DCA just keeps things simple, no pressure, no guessing, just steady accumulation.
With time, consistency always beats timing, and like you said, it is all about discipline and patience. Bitcoin always rewards those who stay long enough to let it play out..

Yes you are absolutely correct, Investing regularly will definitely surpass timing the market because if someone is consistent in Bitcoin investment that is buying at any price and also prepare for the Dip there portfolio will grow more, that investor will surely beat someone that is only timing or waiting for the market to dip before they invest. Timing the market is a wrong way for an Investor because they will miss a lot of opportunities perhaps people that should time the market are traders not investors because an investor really have a long way to go (getting to overaccumulation stage).

[IjawMan]

If you are accumulating Bitcoins and want to hold them for long term then best approach is to accumulate them through discretionary income. While your job salary or business income can be used to meet daily requirements. Why discretionary income is important is because it allows to dormant your Bitcoin for longer duration. Without discretionary income or if you are accumulating bitcoins with your salary then you might cash out your bitcoin in the long run, which completely destroys your plan of long term investment.

Your post is quite complicating and can be misleading to newbies too You re sounding as if your discretional income is derivated else where if not from your salary. Your discretional income is gotten from your salary after meeting your personal needs. When you start using your salary or your business income to accumulate bitcoin then your no longer investing but gambling with your bitcoin investment which will eventually ruined all your investments. Better ways,using our discretional income to accumulate bitcoin is the appropriate approach towards a long lasting Bitcoin

Discretionary income is what is left from your salary in the aftermath of all household necessary expenses covered. Discretionary income do have several other usage but investing it into assets is a security into the future.

 It no external money outside the salary thus the name discretionary income. Using the whole salary in buying bitcoin on accumulation is a dangerous investment strategy and you can be forced by circumstance to sell prematurely in loss but when making use of what is simply left from your salary after sorting your those essential expenses.

[Ivystar5]

The best time to accumulate Bitcoin is not when the price is low, although it is the traders that think in this direction because they want to buy low and sell on an increase,

That's not the mindset of the traders only, holders purchase on dip knowing that bitcoin will definitely increase and it increase will be greater than now, example, bitcoin hits sixty thousands [60k] last year, and before it got to sixty thousands, the price were below 60k, but this year the price hits hundreds and twenty four thousand [124k] which nobody knew that the price will increase to such price, even next year the price can be more than the current price, so immediately the price of Bitcoin falls from 124k many rush and purchase knowing the next move will be higher than 124k.

Next you mean, I hope that's not 2026? because that will be a kick off of bearish market or possibly December 2025, so you should be precised when using words, next cycle is possibly the next time bitcoin gets such heights.

Last year 60k and this year 120+k is only the fact that 2025 was a full bullish season, so let's be guided so those who are new wouldn't be thinking bitcoin is going to be  booming every year.

How did you know that 2026 will be the kick off of bearish market? You may be following the 4 year's cycle but a lot have changed now which means there is no guarantee that Bitcoin will follow that textbook pattern any longer. I hope you still remembered that Bitcoin made a new all time high before the halving, something that never happened in the precious market cycle so you should be ready for some surprises come 2026. You will be making a terrible mistake if you consider selling all your Bitcoin this year and hoping to replenish them next year in your imagined bear market, you might end up buying Bitcoin around $200k or above, you know how painful that will be for someone who had the privilege of buying below $100k. Just keep holding and if you still have some funds, buy more and don't look at the price

Who said anything about selling? of course I know things can change just like it did for the halven, patterns are changing but we still believe that not much has changed in the hands of bitcoin, and for someone who is looking at long them holding, apart from buying for the effectiveness of compounding power (DCA) in terms of lump sum and Dip buying, it's always best to buy in the bear market as it is a discount purchase for you hence the word selling is not part of our vocabulary.

[ASloveapg]

If you are accumulating Bitcoins and want to hold them for long term then best approach is to accumulate them through discretionary income. While your job salary or business income can be used to meet daily requirements. Why discretionary income is important is because it allows to dormant your Bitcoin for longer duration. Without discretionary income or if you are accumulating bitcoins with your salary then you might cash out your bitcoin in the long run, which completely destroys your plan of long term investment.

Your post is quite complicating and can be misleading to newbies too You re sounding as if your discretional income is derivated else where if not from your salary. Your discretional income is gotten from your salary after meeting your personal needs. When you start using your salary or your business income to accumulate bitcoin then your no longer investing but gambling with your bitcoin investment which will eventually ruined all your investments. Better ways,using our discretional income to accumulate bitcoin is the appropriate approach towards a long lasting Bitcoin

Discretionary income is what is left from your salary in the aftermath of all household necessary expenses covered. Discretionary income do have several other usage but investing it into assets is a security into the future.

 It no external money outside the salary thus the name discretionary income. Using the whole salary in buying bitcoin on accumulation is a dangerous investment strategy and you can be forced by circumstance to sell prematurely in loss but when making use of what is simply left from your salary after sorting your those essential expenses.

Financial needs can arise at any time in people's daily lives, and this is why a long-term investment must use that money, that you will not need in any situation, that is, you can handle the situation without this money in any unexpected situation. So after meeting all your expenses from your income, invest the remaining amount, and even if it is very small in amount, there is no problem, because if this cycle continues continuously, this small amount of money will eventually become very large. But if you invest the necessary amount, and when you need that money, if you sell that investment before the goal is complete, then you will have to face a very big loss, which is why Bitcoin investment should be invested continuously through discretionary income, so that it can be held for the long term without any problem.

[DubemIfedigbo001]

The best time to accumulate Bitcoin is not when the price is low, although it is the traders that think in this direction because they want to buy low and sell on an increase,

That's not the mindset of the traders only, holders purchase on dip knowing that bitcoin will definitely increase and it increase will be greater than now,

They didn't know anything, there is no guarantee on the continuous price appreciation of Bitcoin. They were only optimistic, if there was a greater knowledge on the price appreciation of Bitcoin, many people who panic sold would still be holding by now. We're all optimistic about Bitcoin continuous success and that's why we're buying and holding in a bid to secure our financial future through our investment into Bitcoin.

so immediately the price of Bitcoin falls from 124k many rush and purchase knowing the next move will be higher than 124k.

Those who do this are just gambling on Bitcoin price, they may never have a decent portfolio on the long-run. The best approach remains buying and holding regardless of the market conditions. The benchmark should be reaching your accumulation target still within your holding period because the more quantities you get, the higher value for your investment you'll enjoy even you go long-term in Bitcoin.

[Supreme Donvic]

Yeah bro, a lot of people keep delaying because they are always waiting for that so called perfect dip, but truth is, Bitcoin doesn’t move according to anyone timing. If you keep waiting, you will most likely end up with nothing, because by the time you think the price will drop, it might actually pump even higher.
That is where DCA really makes sense, it takes away the pressure of trying to predict every move, and it helps you keep stacking bit by bit without stressing about timing. it’s not about buying at the absolute lowest price, it is about actually being in the market and holding long enough to enjoy the bigger growth..

Facts, bro. Too many people miss out because they want to catch that perfect dip, but in reality nobody can time Bitcoin perfectly. The best move is consistency, DCA keeps you in the game without stress, and over time those little stacks build into something big. At the end of the day, it’s not about being the smartest trader, it’s about having the discipline to stay in and let Bitcoin do its thing.

That is the real mindset. People stress too much trying to time the market, forgetting that even professionals get it wrong most times. DCA just keeps things simple, no pressure, no guessing, just steady accumulation.
With time, consistency always beats timing, and like you said, it is all about discipline and patience. Bitcoin always rewards those who stay long enough to let it play out..

Yes you are absolutely correct, Investing regularly will definitely surpass timing the market because if someone is consistent in Bitcoin investment that is buying at any price and also prepare for the Dip there portfolio will grow more, that investor will surely beat someone that is only timing or waiting for the market to dip before they invest. Timing the market is a wrong way for an Investor because they will miss a lot of opportunities perhaps people that should time the market are traders not investors because an investor really have a long way to go (getting to overaccumulation stage).

Yeah as an investor you don't need to time the market before accumulating , this are some reasons why you shouldn't time the market as an investor.
1. You Might Miss the Best Days:
We all know that Bitcoin investment is highly volatile in nature and many of Bitcoin’s biggest gains happen in just a few days each year. Missing only a few of those days can drastically reduce your total return, so the best way not to miss out is by using the DCA strategy to invest in Bitcoin  weekly or monthly, now when you are using the DCA strategy you know that when ever you are paid your salary and you finish paying for your basic needs the discretionary income that is lift will be used to accumulate or buy Bitcoin and then hold as usual, but if you think you can keep the money and then continue timing the market you will end up using the money for something else thereby missing out.
2. DCA strategy Works Better:
Investing small, consistent amounts over time reduces risk and helps you buy both during highs and lows  averaging out your entry price, so there's no need waiting or timing the market as an investor, timing the market is a waste of time it will just delay you.
Don't wait start accumulating now, people that always time the market are traders because they are short time investors.

[ejikeme24]

Financial needs can arise at any time in people's daily lives, and this is why a long-term investment must use that money, that you will not need in any situation, that is, you can handle the situation without this money in any unexpected situation. So after meeting all your expenses from your income, invest the remaining amount, and even if it is very small in amount, there is no problem, because if this cycle continues continuously, this small amount of money will eventually become very large. But if you invest the necessary amount, and when you need that money, if you sell that investment before the goal is complete, then you will have to face a very big loss, which is why Bitcoin investment should be invested continuously through discretionary income, so that it can be held for the long term without any problem.

Yeah this unforeseen circumstances is the reason why is advised for an investor to set aside emergency fund and also back up funds or reserve funds because this funds is what will guide you all throughout your accumulation journey, without you keeping this above mentioned funds in place be rest assured that your accumulation journey will not be completed Because when emergency arise in the future you will not have any other funds you can dip hand to solve this problem apart from your bitcoin investment especially when the emergency requires immediate attention at this point you won't have the opportunity to think for any possible way out. Moreover you can't think of going for loan when you already have a huge amount of money in your bitcoin investment, the only option there is to sell. but if you have emergency fund or reserve funds you will worry less because you have other alternative aside from your bitcoin investment this is the reason why emergency fund and reserve funds need to be make available in all time.

[De seer1]

[edited out]

JayJuanGee I think in other for someone to prevent making mistakes when he or she has reached overaccumulation stage the best thing to do is to withdraw only when the price of Bitcoin doubles, I learnt this from you and it's very effective, with this strategy it won't affect one's Bitcoin investment now if one is using this strategy in withdrawing his or her Bitcoin he or she don't need to depend on Bitcoin only he or she needs to be working since it may take a long time before a price doubles in Bitcoin so while waiting for the price to double he or she can be using the income he or she gets from there job to get there basic needs.

Don't worry about making mistakes, since we learn from our mistakes, yet at the same time, if we do make mistakes, we would like to mitigate such mistakes so that we are damaged ONLY minimally, if we do make mistakes.

Yet, to your main point, there are a variety of ways to deal with managing your BTC holdings after reaching overaccumulation status.

One of the things about reaching overaccumulation status is that it increases options, yet there are likely levels and even differing ways of measuring overaccumulation status, so in that regard, if we are barely at overaccumulated status, then we might not have as many options as someone who is many times higher than overaccumulation status.

Let's say for example, a guy who had made $50k per year had been investing into bitcoin for the past 9 years at $200 per week which would have been about 25% of his income at about $10k per year, so he may well could have had invested $90k or $100k into bitcoin over such time, and maybe he accumulated right around 16 BTC.   He might be feeling pretty good about his BTC stash, since his goal was to be able to quit his job, but he wanted to make sure that his bitcoin would support at least an $80k per year income, and he cal see that right now right around 15 BTC would perpetually be able to afford an income of $80k per year, so in that regard he has enough or more than enough BTC, and he even has 1 BTC extra to give him a little bit of a cushion if he were to want to start to withdraw $6,666k per month.  So that would be a time based sustainable withdrawal.

The withdrawal of 10% of your bitcoin holdings every time the BTC price doubles would be a price based sustainable withdrawal, yet that requires the BTC price to double to be able to withdraw from it, even though you could divide it into smaller increments, such as selling 2.5% every time the BTC price went up 25%.

So there can be various options to employ sustainable withdrawal that might differ in terms of how they are employed, whether they are time based or price based and/or in terms of how they are employed.

The only time you can get into a problem is when you depend only on your Bitcoin investment even if you have accumulated Enough or you have reached overaccumulation stage you don't have to depend only your Bitcoin investment for your survival except you have thousands of Bitcoin

You don't need thousands of bitcoin.  I think that my formula for withdrawing based on the 200-WMA value, the withdrawal of up to 10% per year based on the 200-WMA valuation of your holdings is able to work if you know how to employ and not to overdo it and maybe to cut back on the withdrawals if the BTC Spot price goes to less than 25% above the 200-WMA and it seems to me that right now, if you have at least 15 bitcoin, you could sustainably withdraw $80k per year and even increase your dollar value by 7% per year, and it should be sustainable at that level.. yet of course, you have to monitor that you are not overly withdrawing and/or that the BTC price dynamics have not changed so much as to cause needs to reconsider the withdrawal formula.

Part of the trick is to make sure that the BTC value is not getting depleted, meaning that you are not withdrawing past your limit, and surely if you have a bit of an extra cushion, such as the guy who has 16 BTC rather than 15 BTC, then it is quite likely that the formula will work out better, and you will not mistakenly overdraft too much too soon from your holdings and/or overly deplete it in such a way that it is no longer able to grow sufficiently to support your targeted income, which is $80k per year (with a 7% per year increase) in my example.

[edited out].......
Once a person reaches overaccumulation status then he might choose to pause any new buying, and he might have a period where he is neither buying or selling, and perhaps once he starts to withdraw, then if the dollar value of his bitcoin holdings is growing faster than his withdrawal rate then he does not need to keep buying..
Do we need to give an example?

It is optional to keep buying once a guy reaches overaccumulation status, and sure he might make mistakes and come to conclude that he is in overaccumulation status and he is not.  He also might not really know what overaccumulation status is, so if he does not know, then he is also more likely to make mistakes.

This is really a good phase that will happen to investor since it will lessen up the pressure of thinking about they should buy more Bitcoin since for reaching that level is like they have freedom to choose whether they continue buy now or just relax then do this later since they already hit their targets.

But I would rather choose to buy more since for many good things happened in terms of adoption and recognition. My confidence level goes high that I can use Bitcoin for retirement, that's why I continue accumulating then let see if I could able to hit that goal without getting bothered by future events, but most likely will not since I know Bitcoin is good asset to hold.

There can be a certain lack of confidence that causes  a guy to want to make sure to have an extra cash cushion (or extra BTC cushion) beyond his target level so that he can make sure that he is withdrawing from within the overaccumulation status and not causing himself to go below overaccumulation status.  Guys are responsible for their own situations and to make sure that have adequately reached overaccumulation status and that they don't overly withdraw from their bitcoin, while knocking themselves out of overaccumulation status.

[edited out]

I get what you mean, Overaccumulation isn’t some fixed number, it’s more like a personal decision depending on the person's needs and comfort level. For example, let’s say someone has built up enough bitcoin over 8–10 years, and their holdings are growing at around 8–10% or more a year. If they’re only withdrawing about 3% to 5% a year for expenses, then technically their bitcoin stash is still growing even while they are already living off of it, so they don’t really need to keep buying although they can continue if they want to. The tricky part, like you said, is that people sometimes misjudge where they are, some stop too early thinking they’ve already made it and later regret it, while others never feel like they’ve reached enough and just keep stacking/accumulating forever. Honestly, the bigger mistakes usually happen earlier on like selling too soon or not accumulating enough during those early cycles like the first and second one.
At the end of the day, it comes down to experience and discipline. The longer someone has been accumulating bitcoin, the easier it gets for them to judge when they have crossed into that overaccumulation territory and shift their mindset from pure accumulation to careful management.

I think that you are getting the ideas pretty well, and surely when you are applying them to your own situation, as your bitcoin grows, then they will start to make more sense in terms of how to manage your holdings, since you will likely pass through phases of more aggressive bitcoin accumulation and then maybe less intense accumulation and then maybe only strategic accumulation, and so if you are paying attention to your stack size, then yeah, you might come across regrets in regards to how whimpily you had invested in your earlier years, when you could have had afforded to invest more aggressively, yet surely these are judgement calls that each guy has to make in terms of how aggressive he believe that he is able to  be without overdoing it.  So, sometimes we punish ourselves afterwards for not being aggressive enough, yet it is not really a big mistake, since it is better to have had continued to invest through the years rather than not, so the no coiners will be in a worse situation, and really there will be a lot offolks in a worse situation who had not been accumulating bitcoin.

Surely part of the reason that i frequently repeat that guys should try to stack bitcoin as aggressively as they can without over doing it is because guys still have to determine those boundaries, and if they fuck it up by either over doing it or underdoing it, then they can ONLY  blame themselves, even though they cannot turn back the clock, but just attempt to accumulate BTC the best that they are able to accomplish under their own circumstances and within their discretionary income, and surely some guys may well be quite limited in terms of how much discretionary income that that they are able to generate to be able to invest more than 10% of their income into bitcoin... .. so they do the best that they can and realize that it takes time to build up a bitcoin investment, and even though some guys might be able to accomplish their building up in 4-6 years, there are plenty of guys who will take more than 2 cycles, and perhaps even 3-4 cycles before they really get to a point where they might start to feel that they are getting to a point where they can actually see where their overaccumulation amount would be.

You are very correct on this , if anyone have over accumulate his Bitcoin for long it is good for him or her to make a withdraw reason being that if you have invested  Bitcoin enough in some duration of years and the Bitcoin is growing like 20% of your income you can make a withdraw of 10%. some time some people miscalculate and they regret of miss using their over accumulation. sometimes will punish ourselvez after all for not being aggressive enough it is not really a little  mistake then  it is better to have good orientation to invest through the years  than not investing , so no Bitcoin will be in a worse condition  and really there will be a lot in a worse period  who had not been over accumulation.

[EL MOHA]

Next you mean, I hope that's not 2026? because that will be a kick off of bearish market or possibly December 2025, so you should be precised when using words, next cycle is possibly the next time bitcoin gets such heights.

Last year 60k and this year 120+k is only the fact that 2025 was a full bullish season, so let's be guided so those who are new wouldn't be thinking bitcoin is going to be  booming every year.

The quoted post definitely had the maybe word in it which signifies that it is not certain to happen, historically we all know that next year is the beginning of bearish trend and it will extend to almost till the end of the year, last bearish trend in 2022 had bitcoin went as below as -80% from the ATH ($69k to $16k) before rallying back up and doing more than 7x form that low. But we all are familiar with the adage that History doesn’t repeat it self and the quoted posts actually suggests the market might increased next year instead of dumping who knows, newbies should be taking their research seriously instead of blindly following.

For me history is bound to repeat it self and that’s why to me it’s best to start the preparation of actually going into accumulation period that next year, if it is possible it best to even accumulate aggressively then right now should be regular DCA and saving for emergency funds