China India tensions on impact to Global economy possible china India war

[darkangel11]

That's one of the smaller reasons since the annexed regions are also considered "Russian borders" now (95% of them voted for Putin in the recent election in Russia).

Where did you get this from? Let me guess, official Russian media channels that reported almost everybody voted for Putin. The whole country is pro Putin. The problem is that you cannot and will not get any legit information from Russia. In one of the elections they had so many fake votes for Putin that the total sum of votes exceeded 100%
Yes, the majority voted for Putin. No, it wasn't even close to 80%, not to mention 95%. Things like that don't happen unless the election is tampered with, and Russian elections are every single time. Even the one were Putin got elected for his first term was fixed by the FSB.

[pooya87]

That's one of the smaller reasons since the annexed regions are also considered "Russian borders" now (95% of them voted for Putin in the recent election in Russia).

Where did you get this from? Let me guess, official Russian media channels that reported almost everybody voted for Putin. The whole country is pro Putin. The problem is that you cannot and will not get any legit information from Russia. In one of the elections they had so many fake votes for Putin that the total sum of votes exceeded 100%
Yes, the majority voted for Putin. No, it wasn't even close to 80%, not to mention 95%. Things like that don't happen unless the election is tampered with, and Russian elections are every single time. Even the one were Putin got elected for his first term was fixed by the FSB.

That doesn't matter. Those regions are still under Russian occupation and control whether 95% voted for Putin or 5%. We have no evidence to know which percentage is correct either. Just the propaganda outlets of two opposing sides, each reporting their own nonsense.

The discussion above wasn't about correctness of their election either, it's about buffer zones. Maybe I shouldn't have brought up the percentage to avoid derailing the comment but the point I made was that these regions are currently as part of the Russian federation as republics or a federated state that even participate in the Russian elections and vote for the same president, as opposed to being a separate country voting for their own president. This means although they may resemble a buffer zone but they are not exactly one.
A buffer zone for Russia is something like Belarus.

[blckhawk]

I don't think that the tension is going anywhere besides being just a tension, China is only bark and no bite, I mean look at what they're doing with Taiwan and many other countries in the SEA region, they are openly hostile but they're really scared to initiate any kind of violence, they're a weak country that's pretending to be strong and no matter what the CCP says about their plan being for the long-term, China is still a pup when it comes to the big dogs club like Russia and USA, they're only strong because they've got a really good information dampening for their citizens so the only thing that they consume are propaganda plus they're both founding members of the international group BRICS and that's a bad face for BRICS if they've got an internal strife. If I'm choosing sides, I'd say that India will take the win on this one because they've got the geological advantage in my opinion.

[moneystery]

source: trust me bro

at least if you want to make speculation, you should be smarter to be able to support your opinion, but from several points that i read what you wrote is nothing more than just empty talk and most of it is just speculation at all. at least finish the topic you want to discuss first, then you can jump to another topic. but i read your writing very confusing, at one point you discuss china, at another you discuss india and blackrock. it's just confusing. at least improve your writing first, so that it doesn't become spam on this forum.

[coolcoinz]

Also USA stand behind india and will give all the military aid to India it means stock market commodities and btc looking bullish

India is playing both sides. They've been buying arms from Russia for decades and according to some sources spent 60 billion dollars doing so. Now they have a contract with the US for engine production so that most likely comes with a verbal agreement that they will not send weapons to Russia when the US is supplying Ukraine.

India doesn't act like it's against Russia or the US, but it wants to get the best deals from both sides.
Russia wanted to produce helicopters in India but that deal was cancelled most likely because of the engine deal with the US.
Chances of India going to war right now are very low, they just want to make money. It's the same fear mongering that people who say that Russia will attack NATO countries are doing.

[South Park]

Also USA stand behind india and will give all the military aid to India it means stock market commodities and btc looking bullish

India is playing both sides. They've been buying arms from Russia for decades and according to some sources spent 60 billion dollars doing so. Now they have a contract with the US for engine production so that most likely comes with a verbal agreement that they will not send weapons to Russia when the US is supplying Ukraine.

India doesn't act like it's against Russia or the US, but it wants to get the best deals from both sides.
Russia wanted to produce helicopters in India but that deal was cancelled most likely because of the engine deal with the US.
Chances of India going to war right now are very low, they just want to make money. It's the same fear mongering that people who say that Russia will attack NATO countries are doing.

I agree, the government of India like most governments is trying to get the best possible deals they can, and the politicians there have realized they have become a very important chess piece for other major players, so those politicians are doing what any other politician would do under those circumstances, which is to take advantage of the situation, so while the tensions between India and China are important, I think it is out of place to believe that an armed conflict is on the cards right now.

[umbara ardian]

The historical border disputes between India and China are a point of concern.  Imagine two nuclear-armed powers with unresolved territorial claims.  While war might seem unthinkable, even a minor escalation could have disastrous consequences.

The role of both countries in BRICS is a crucial factor.  A conflict would shatter the trust within the organization and undermine their collective influence.  Imagine the BRICS bloc, envisioned as a counterweight to the US dollar, losing credibility due to internal conflict.

The potential economic fallout is another compelling reason to avoid war.  Both India and China are economic powerhouses.  A military confrontation would disrupt trade, investment, and global supply chains.

[STT]

This is not new, they have been fighting on that border for a decade or more.  Is it escalating is the question and is there really any advantage to what war would occur.  Hostile and actual intent to make war backed by the idea of gaining something would be two different things.   I dont see either party gaining only losing people and probably gaining no useful ground that makes any difference to each country.

Important note here for me personally is neither nation has oil where as you compare Iran and Iraq a border dispute there could involve the gain of maybe billions of value in oil reserves for that land.  Some useless land on the India China border doesnt seem as appealing in any dispute to me.   Without further knowledge of incentives I doubt it, perhaps there is other perspectives but plain hostilities is not unfortunately that abnormal even if people die I dont see an entire country dedicate itself to a war for those reasons.

[topbitcoin]

The relationship between two large countries is very, very complicated, where there are times when they are of the same direction and cooperating, but on certain issues there are times when they have different paths and sometimes cause conflict at the border. And even though there is the US behind India, when we talk about the Asian region, we all know which country has a big influence in that region. And the feud between India and China has not yet found common ground, so there is a possibility that in the future there will be a quite fierce trade war between India and China, and the bad thing is that this feud could end in a prolonged conflict on the Himalayan border.

And if this happens, global food security will again be threatened, countries that are dependent on India for food will experience difficulties. This could happen, because China could behave selfishly in cutting off the flow of its river in Tibet which is connected to the Brahmaputra river and the Ganges river in India, which could cause India's agricultural activities to be hampered due to lack of water. Agricultural activities are hampered, food productivity is reduced and hunger is rampant

[kentrolla]

The relationship between two large countries is very, very complicated, where there are times when they are of the same direction and cooperating, but on certain issues there are times when they have different paths and sometimes cause conflict at the border. And even though there is the US behind India, when we talk about the Asian region, we all know which country has a big influence in that region. And the feud between India and China has not yet found common ground, so there is a possibility that in the future there will be a quite fierce trade war between India and China, and the bad thing is that this feud could end in a prolonged conflict on the Himalayan border.

And if this happens, global food security will again be threatened, countries that are dependent on India for food will experience difficulties. This could happen, because China could behave selfishly in cutting off the flow of its river in Tibet which is connected to the Brahmaputra river and the Ganges river in India, which could cause India's agricultural activities to be hampered due to lack of water. Agricultural activities are hampered, food productivity is reduced and hunger is rampant

That would prove to be terrible not only to India but also to those countries which are dependent on India and also this will impact the export market of China because we have to accept the fact that world needs byh India and China for different resources and without them it would cause hardship throughout the world or atleast to major countries. India cannot escalate this further assuming USA would back then as India has learned a lot from in previous war with China and this time Inda will take calculated steps and China needs to be stopped it's getting ambitious day by day.

[southerngentuk]

Heightened tensions in this crucial trade region could have a significant impact on shipping costs and commodity prices. The emphasis on the need for credible sources to support claims of war is crucial.  Information verification is essential, especially in today's age of misinformation.  Imagine basing economic decisions on rumors or unconfirmed reports.

The counterpoint about domestic production and the potential for countries to lessen reliance on imports is insightful.  A war wouldn't necessarily lead to a complete halt in essential goods production, as many countries can source materials domestically.  Imagine a scenario where nations prioritize local production to mitigate supply chain disruptions. The observation about China and India's past cooperation efforts, including BRICS, is interesting.  Economic ties and existing diplomatic channels can potentially act as buffers against escalation.  Imagine these past collaborations playing a role in preventing full-blown conflict.

[stompix]

russia seen eastern ukraine as the safety barrier to keep nato away from russia's borders.

Yeah, genius move:



I wonder if Putin didn't make that plan with you, since it's so genuinely stupid from the core!
The whole thing about Ukraine and the buffer zone is just stupid, if Nato would have really wanted to expand and threaten Russia the attack would have been Belarus!
60 years of Cold War planning and not a single plan made something special out of Ukraine, it's Belarus that's the gateway to both Moscow and Berlin!

The thing is, China and India have a population growth that are not controlled, so border conflicts like this will be a ongoing problem, because they have to put those people somewhere and they also need more agricultural land to produce more food.

China's population is already decreasing,
India's fertility rate has plunged to below replacement level!New models show that India might start shrinking itself way earlier than 2065, models predicting 2050 now and they still ignore the impact of education in the poorest region where births are still high.

But overall, it's nice to see BRICS being so united! /shitload of sarcasm

[snowpega]

Also USA stand behind india and will give all the military aid to India it means stock market commodities and btc looking bullish

India is playing both sides. They've been buying arms from Russia for decades and according to some sources spent 60 billion dollars doing so. Now they have a contract with the US for engine production so that most likely comes with a verbal agreement that they will not send weapons to Russia when the US is supplying Ukraine.

India doesn't act like it's against Russia or the US, but it wants to get the best deals from both sides.
Russia wanted to produce helicopters in India but that deal was cancelled most likely because of the engine deal with the US.
Chances of India going to war right now are very low, they just want to make money. It's the same fear mongering that people who say that Russia will attack NATO countries are doing.

India is a very tricky player India knows where India can have more advantages of things that can help in most of the ways i do not know if you know this or not Some Secrete agents in India are working for Russia who find some middle-class people who are looking for Job/opportunities. These agents show them the moon and stars in daylight by saying that they will have a very good salary in the Job they are going to offer. Now what is the Job these Agents offer to these Indian Middle-class people? This job is an army job, these agents say to them you guys will be hired for some little task for the Russian army but these innocent people are not aware of the real game behind all that.

Once they reached Russia, Russia put them on the front side to fight with the Ukrainian people, and these fragile innocent people got killed without any reason. What is their fault? they just need jobs to support their families but unfortunately, they got trapped by these agents and somehow Indian high commands are also involved in this. Sometimes i really feel bad when I see rich/strong people use poor/weak people in that way.

[_BlackStar]

The relationship between two large countries is very, very complicated, where there are times when they are of the same direction and cooperating, but on certain issues there are times when they have different paths and sometimes cause conflict at the border. And even though there is the US behind India, when we talk about the Asian region, we all know which country has a big influence in that region. And the feud between India and China has not yet found common ground, so there is a possibility that in the future there will be a quite fierce trade war between India and China, and the bad thing is that this feud could end in a prolonged conflict on the Himalayan border.

And if this happens, global food security will again be threatened, countries that are dependent on India for food will experience difficulties. This could happen, because China could behave selfishly in cutting off the flow of its river in Tibet which is connected to the Brahmaputra river and the Ganges river in India, which could cause India's agricultural activities to be hampered due to lack of water. Agricultural activities are hampered, food productivity is reduced and hunger is rampant

An economic war is much more likely between China and India - this is already happening and is not something that has just started. The two countries will probably think about how to find the best solution to reduce tensions - but I don't really follow developments, but what is clear is that the impact will definitely be felt on the global economy if that happens.

Its impact on the global economy means it will also impact the crypto market - including bitcoin. This is of course unavoidable because investors will withdraw from the market and tend to play safer with their budgets. I'm not sure what will happen - but the fallout will be even more complicated if an actual war occurs.

[Ozero]

russia seen eastern ukraine as the safety barrier to keep nato away from russia's borders.

its why russia wanted to take that eastern region and declare it an independent state (no mans land) to keep that buffer space to keep nato/EU at arms length so that russia does not need to defend it endlessly forever

That's one of the smaller reasons since the annexed regions are also considered "Russian borders" now (95% of them voted for Putin in the recent election in Russia).
The major reason is for Russia to dominate the Black Sea considering that for such a massive country Russia had a very little sea shore and control in the Black Sea before 2014. Also if you look at the annexed parts on the map, these regions are more of South and South East rather than being Eastern Ukraine. Russia still shares a lot of border with other Ukrainian provinces in East and North Eastern Ukraine, I marked that huge border with red in the picture below and the new borders with the "buffer space" in green. You can clearly see the difference this way.

By taking Crimea they choked Ukraine in Sea of Azov and increased their dominance in the Black Sea. By taking more land in South and South East (basically everything below Dnipero River) they cut 90% of Ukraine's access to the Black Sea and increased their own dominance.
These regions also included major industries, infrastructures, farms and water sources of Ukraine that now belong to Russia.

In Russia they can write whatever they want into their Constitution about their territorial conquests of other states. Not a single civilized state takes this seriously and will not recognize it.

Moreover, Russia no longer dominates the Black Sea. The remnants of its Black Sea Fleet are hiding away from Ukraine's maritime surface drones and its Neptune anti-ship missiles.
So, only recently, on March 24, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked the port of Sevastopol and damaged the large landing ships Yamal and Azov and Konstantin Olshansky, and also successfully defeated the reconnaissance ship Ivan Khurs. Russia has moved most of its ships either to Novorossiysk or to its other ports away from the Crimean peninsula. And everything that is located near the Crimean peninsula is being actively destroyed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Russia will not be able to hold the south of Ukraine for long. First of all, because ammunition and everything else have to be delivered 700-800 kilometers and this entire route is under fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It is difficult for Ukraine to maintain control of the east; there are direct supplies for the front from Russian territory. And the Black Sea and Azov coasts will soon be liberated by Ukraine.

[Hamza2424]

Indeed China is the opponent of India and America which is why America has good relations with India and America knows the geographical worth of India's location. In case of, if America wants to start any operation in China America can use an Indian location for their benefit. I heard the news that after so much time America again starts to maintain good relations with Pakistan as well as its a long time since America had no contact with Pakistan and as far as I remember last time America has collaborated with Pakistani President Imran Khan a long time ago, and know again there is another signal of making strong relation is getting viral on social news.

In my personal point of view, America also knows the geographical worth of Pakistan as well because of two points China and Afghanistan both are the strong opponents of America and America wants to deploy as many operations as they want using these geographical locations like Pakistan and India that is why America want to rebuilt good relation again with Pakistan.

[DrBeer]

China's goals "in India" today are quite simple - to make India unattractive for Western investments and for transit of Western manufacturers from China to India. China will not go to war with India - it could be a fatal decision for China - India is a large, powerful country, and the West will be on its side in this conflict for many reasons. China will most likely not "sign a surrender", but it is guaranteed to get a ruined economy, which is already rolling into the abyss. The only war that the Chinese government needs to "lower the degree in the country" is a "small victorious war", against a small country, and guaranteed to be weak, as all totalitarian regimes behave in this way, as well as all anti-human regimes.

Bottom line: the biggest danger from India to China is its attractiveness as an object for investment and shifting the "attention" of Western investors from China to India. So China will try to destabilize India, but it will not go to war.

[Argoo]

China's goals "in India" today are quite simple - to make India unattractive for Western investments and for transit of Western manufacturers from China to India. China will not go to war with India - it could be a fatal decision for China - India is a large, powerful country, and the West will be on its side in this conflict for many reasons. China will most likely not "sign a surrender", but it is guaranteed to get a ruined economy, which is already rolling into the abyss. The only war that the Chinese government needs to "lower the degree in the country" is a "small victorious war", against a small country, and guaranteed to be weak, as all totalitarian regimes behave in this way, as well as all anti-human regimes.

Bottom line: the biggest danger from India to China is its attractiveness as an object for investment and shifting the "attention" of Western investors from China to India. So China will try to destabilize India, but it will not go to war.

India's population has surpassed 1.428 billion, slightly larger than China's 1.425 billion, according to the United Nations. You can imagine what would happen if one country with a population of almost one and a half billion people declared war on a country with the same number of people. No matter how events unfold, a war between them will be a disaster for both states. I think that both China and India understand this. Therefore, I don’t think that a real war will break out between them in the foreseeable future. Economic, yes, or some minor provocations.
China, I think, is more interested in Taiwan. But this will depend on the results of Russia’s war against Ukraine. If Russia does not win the war, China will also be forced to hold back its imperial ambitions.

[pooya87]

Moreover, Russia no longer dominates the Black Sea.

Russia will not be able to hold the south of Ukraine for long.

Let me clarify two things about my statement.
My analysis about the "dominance in the Black Sea" was based on the current situation (ie. those regions are already under Russian control) not what may or may not change in the future. If that situation changes, obviously the dominance I talked about become void.

Also the "dominance" I was talking about is for after the war ends not during it.
Otherwise these "big" navies like Russian, US and even Chinese are too slow and I dare say too outdated technologically to survive modern warfare. Basically Russian Navy is facing the exact same threat in Black Sea that US Navy has been facing in Red Sea for the past 6 months, and both are failing miserably.

The remnants of its Black Sea Fleet are hiding away from Ukraine's maritime surface drones and its Neptune anti-ship missiles.

The biggest threat and the only reason why Russian Navy is "hiding" is the UAVs and USVs, otherwise I seriously doubt that a subsonic cruise missile like Neptune that can easily be countered is categorized as a "serious" threat even if the stories of its successful hits aren't fabricated.

[Argoo]

Moreover, Russia no longer dominates the Black Sea.

Russia will not be able to hold the south of Ukraine for long.

Let me clarify two things about my statement.
My analysis about the "dominance in the Black Sea" was based on the current situation (ie. those regions are already under Russian control) not what may or may not change in the future. If that situation changes, obviously the dominance I talked about become void.

Also the "dominance" I was talking about is for after the war ends not during it.
Otherwise these "big" navies like Russian, US and even Chinese are too slow and I dare say too outdated technologically to survive modern warfare. Basically Russian Navy is facing the exact same threat in Black Sea that US Navy has been facing in Red Sea for the past 6 months, and both are failing miserably.

The remnants of its Black Sea Fleet are hiding away from Ukraine's maritime surface drones and its Neptune anti-ship missiles.

The biggest threat and the only reason why Russian Navy is "hiding" is the UAVs and USVs, otherwise I seriously doubt that a subsonic cruise missile like Neptune that can easily be countered is categorized as a "serious" threat even if the stories of its successful hits aren't fabricated.

Even now it cannot be said that Russia dominates the Black Sea and it is unlikely that this situation will change positively for it after its current war with Ukraine. Yes, Russia has captured part of the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine. But the south for her now is like a suitcase without a handle. It’s a pity to lose, and it’s hard to bear. Why has the Russian occupiers been unable to drive out the Ukrainian landing forces on the left bank of the Dnieper near the village of Krynki for more than six months? And not only can they not do this, but the bridgehead is expanding, and the Russians are suffering heavy losses and cannot do anything about it?
 
The captured south of Ukraine is a long strip about a hundred kilometers wide. And all of it is constantly under fire control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. To deliver ammunition to the Krynok region, it must be transported either through the captured land part of Ukraine, which is over 800 kilometers under fire, or bypassing through the captured Crimean peninsula. And Russians regularly fly to the Crimean peninsula to visit military installations, and recently high-precision missiles have been methodically destroying Russian air defenses located there in the form of S-300 and S-400 air defense systems. Planned preparations are underway for the appearance of F-16 aircraft and a large number of long-range missiles in Ukraine.

After the inevitable destruction of the Crimean Bridge, the south of Ukraine and Crimea itself will already turn for the Russians from a suitcase without a handle into a bag of fire and a trap from which it will be very difficult to escape. Russia understands this and is now building a railway across the captured south of Ukraine in case the Crimean Bridge is destroyed. This is in an area where the partisan movement works well and any movement of Russian equipment and manpower immediately becomes known to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and the partisans themselves can blow up the bridges and rails of this railway.

The West has already decided that Russia cannot win this war of aggression. This means that the “dominance” of Russians there is temporary and purely conditional.