Is the halving already priced in?

[Ayers]

I don't think that price of halving will be same as that of current price and 73k$ is all the time high price but we will soon see that price will hit this value too. Halving has not taken place yet so everyone is Estonished that if the value is 73k$ before halving then what will be the price during or after halving so it has created a thoughts among the people that may be bitcoin does not exceed than 73k$ in current year.

But I think that it will go more higher than 73k$ and halving price will be totally different from that of present price. People are still waiting for another ATH so I think if buying become more successful then very soon halving will bring the value that will not be in our mind as everything is unpredictable.

I don't think with bitcoin has higher price when halving time, since break the all time high price until $73k bitcoin get difficult position break out more higher price again. Seems is the higher price of bitcoin and halving can't give any positive impact yet for bitcoin reaching more higher price behind two weeks left and bitcoin can't raise up significant.
Some investor keep waiting will has chance new higher price for bitcoin or will drop after halving time, current bitcoin have too expensive after raising drastically since dropping drastically last year. I have sold my bitcoin assets and waiting moment with bitcoin going drop to buy back or potential how bitcoin grow up to make another all time high price.

If you are a trader then I have no opinion but if you are a long term holder then I don't think this is a wise move. While there is still a possibility that bitcoin will correct or plummet after bitcoin makes a new ATH before the halving, this is risky as it may or may not happen. No one can guarantee or be certain that bitcoin will correct deeper after the halving occurs.

We have been able to hold the bitcoins so far so there is no need to rush to sell bitcoins at this time. The 3 most difficult years of the bear season are over and now it's time for us to enjoy our efforts, I think we just need to wait a little longer. Selling bitcoin at this time for optimization is quite risky and not recommended.

[Darker45]

The spot Bitcoin ETF was a different thing from the Bitcoin halving. Each of them may create its own hype. I guess the ATH was brought about by the hype of the spot Bitcoin ETF-- and, of course, the ensuing demand as well.

So, it is possible that the hype the halving brings might still push the price up. However, it is also possible that those who got the money which was supposed to be used to purchase Bitcoin in preparation for the aftereffect of the halving to the price have already used it in reaction to the spot Bitcoin ETF approval.

But I still believe that the bullish momentum created by the adoption of large institutions and will be followed by the halving would still bring the price to six digits.

[pooya87]

-snip-
2. The post-halving rally
This is the actual rise which is a lot bigger and it happens because the supply creation rate is actually cut by half (50% reduction) by then and its effects show up in the market and on the price. This starts slower and continues speeding up until we see that big bubble at the end (assuming the same cycle-type thing happens this time).

Considering that we are about 2 weeks away from halving and price doesn't seem to like to rise anymore we can say that the  first phase is priced in.

So we just go through the first wave of rally, and the second wave will be bigger and will certainly reach a new ATH that is crazier but with slower timing than before.

The rally after the halving has been the most awaited, but before that happens I think the price will tend to correct first to gather considerable volume and then continue until a new ATH is created again, maybe above $100k according to the target that many people expect.

That's the idea and so far we have seen this type of 2 phased rally on each halving which also is logical.
But keep in mind that there are still a lot of other things that are affecting the market like the situation in the global economy. For example I still have one eye on the interest rates and I believe if they go higher it will create a sell pressure on bitcoin, conversely if they go down they will create a massive buy pressure in bitcoin.

As for that correction, it already happened when price went down $13k (from $73k to $60k) and we are recovering from the correction heading back to $70k again.

[Natsuu]

But I still believe that the bullish momentum created by the adoption of large institutions and will be followed by the halving would still bring the price to six digits.

What I am expecting now to Bitcoin is may it create a new floor price for halving and no longer revisit lower prices. After this, I would consider this as a longer term bullish sentiment. It's like a new higher low with an expectation not to get violated. At least 69K level for me to hold as if a resistance on higher time frame turn into support. Who knows? Price and social media is not crazy yet about crypto so I guess we are yet to create another top again. And until people turn euphoric, price will create a new high and hopefully won't trade below 60K.

[kentrolla]

Yes, it's safe to say $60k can be new support level and Bitcoin may not go below it but at the sametime it's been few days since Bitcoin has been used the $69k I don't think it would take long time for Bitcoin to crossover $70k once again. It's just waiting for one positive even tor now's and right now it's accumulation period.

[taufik123]

That's the idea and so far we have seen this type of 2 phased rally on each halving which also is logical.
But keep in mind that there are still a lot of other things that are affecting the market like the situation in the global economy. For example I still have one eye on the interest rates and I believe if they go higher it will create a sell pressure on bitcoin, conversely if they go down they will create a massive buy pressure in bitcoin.

As for that correction, it already happened when price went down $13k (from $73k to $60k) and we are recovering from the correction heading back to $70k again.

The global economic situation has always been a trigger factor for Bitcoin to be slammed back.
Interest rates that continue to rise make selling pressure always there, even this is always a manipulative weapon.

The people behind interest rates will also want to buy Bitcoin cheaply, and then sell it at a fairly expensive price when interest rates are lowered.

As for how far Bitcoin's correction range will be, the $13k drop is quite a lot of decline, but it's still not over.
We will still see the actual correction that will occur when the halving is over, this will make some people start selling their holdings,
and they want to buy them again at a cheaper price.

Currently, the bitcoin trend is different from the previous halving trend and there are many influencing factors.
Most importantly, I am ready for any halving trend, will not sell my holdings until the real Bull run arrives.

[stompix]

I sometimes don't understand the ones completely denying the pricing in!

For two years of bear market, we have only talked about the next halving, about the price will go up, about how that was the last opportunity to get cheap coins, how you need to hold and despite all those advice and strategies people have preaching about somehow there is no pricing in. How would that even be possible when everyone is taking the exact course of action that triggers the pricing, all have stopped selling because they want a higher price, this means the supply is already affected by the action devised on a strategy based on future events!

We are getting 900 new coins every single day and it may not enter the market daily, but over the course of a month or two you can expect a large part of it to be sold. This is going to be cut in half soon and 450 btc less every day is a big deal. It's around $30 million worth of bitcoin less every single day!

But it's still way up from the 20 million we were getting in September and October.
And if we hit 100k it will go to 45k, going above the read before the late February bull run that saw us top 50k.

You can't expect the halving to move price right away because it affects coins mined in the future, but the farther we get from it the more of these new, more expensive coins enter the market and nobody will want to dump them below the mining cost.

Miners are business before anything else if you don't have cashflow and you risk either going completely offline or bankruptcy you will sell at a loss to keep the business going, for large miners under long-term contracts mining at -5% loss is way better than closing down with depreciated assets, debt and penalties.

[PrivacyG]

If this is what the priced in Bitcoin price looks then it is bad.  Very bad in fact.  We know Bitcoin has a lower percentage gain every Halving, but although lower, it has always still been an impressive one.

This time, we barely passed the last known All Time High.  If this is the priced in Bitcoin, it means we can barely make it to the All Time High now.  Which is SIGNIFICANTLY lower than expected, considering last time we went to this price up from around 20 Thousand Dollars.

So, better hope this is NOT the priced in one.  Remember Miners still have to earn a profit or to at least make it even in order to continue Mining Bitcoin.  With a Bitcoin that barely pushes to All Time Highs, this would be a very big red flag for Miners.

[aoluain]

I was wondering when we would see the "Is the halving priced in?" question coming up.
This came up just before the last halving too and it was just after a price rise then also
so some people were wondering if there would be a further pump after the event,
which there wasnt, the markets actually dropped briefly.

This time around is different though as is every halving really. Apart from the ETF's has
everyone who is speculating on the halving event bought in at this stage? I think its possible.

The Grayscale Bitcoin sell off has been a drag over the last few weeks, that has come to
an end from yesterday I think so that sell off is no longer an issue, we nay see a rise in the
markets from here on.

[Assface16678]

Yes, it's safe to say $60k can be new support level and Bitcoin may not go below it but at the sametime it's been few days since Bitcoin has been used the $69k I don't think it would take long time for Bitcoin to crossover $70k once again. It's just waiting for one positive even tor now's and right now it's accumulation period.

Well, I guess its normal because of the recent activity of bitcoin that it reached its new ATH and it keeps on crossing up to $70k. Consider that many might sell some portion of their holding, so its normal that the price of bitcoin will not stay in the $70k zone. Maybe after an event again like the ETF approval, I think one of the reasons that bitcoin is currently in a higher position now is because of the ETF and because bitcoin will now be easily accessed and they can easily buy bitcoin. Many brought bitcoin in the past weeks or months. Anyway, halving is coming near. I guess it will only take a few days. We will never know what will happen to bitcoin until it comes. Many say that bitcoin might skyrocket or the opposite; we can only wait for the movement, but I think the low possibility is that bitcoin will decrease in price.

[GbitG]

BTC has been "pumped" massively ever since the spot ETFs were approved in the US a few months ago. The rise has been exponential, making BTC reach a new ATH before the halving. This has never happened before in the history of crypto (AFAIK).

It is a first time in Bitcoin history and it is contributed a lot by speculation on probability of Bitcoin Spot ETF approvals, then after approvals it was contributed by massive new capital from those ETFs. Without them, Bitcoin would have not made a new all time high many weeks before its halving in 2024.

Hmm, that's absolutely right bro.
 
Bitcoin ETF is one of the main reasons behind the Bitcoin price like its new all time high of 74.2k . We can clearly see that since the approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF, the price of Bitcoin has skyrocketed and even still continues. And at the same time, the waiting time for Halving is about to end so first, the Bitcoin ETF will boom the price of Bitcoin and after that Halving will raise the price to the moon. And it will be a joy to watch when the price halve hits $200,000 I am so excited to see such things happening.
 
But anyway, beyond any doubt, if Bitcoin Spot ETF approval had not happened, then the price would not have reached this level. That is, if we see how much volume is bigger than ETF in Bitcoin. And those who used to call Bitcoin a pop up balloon are also surprised by Bitcoin and are trying to adopt it. Apparently, the massive gain that Bitcoin made was only possible with the approval of ETF. So when the halving happens and the price reaches 180k, 200k, then everyone will say that they are surprised that if they do not invest in Bitcoin, they will not get even an opportunity.

[Abiky]

I'd say it greatly depends on how you look at it.
Technically I think that we can consider halving priced in, but then we trivialize/almost ignore the buying pressure coming from ETFs.
And of course, if we take only ETF into account, then we can say that halving is not priced in.
I'd say the truth is somewhere in the middle and neither halving, not ETF are fully priced in, hence the price will keep rising.
Just don't expect miracles in the halving day. Maybe blatant market manipulation, but that's also uncertain.


PS. This may be more appropriate for speculation, don't you think?

Well, fees could rise post-halving. That is for sure. One should be prepared for such scenario by either moving to alts or using an off-chain scaling solution (LN). Within the initial days of the halving, there will be a lot of hype. Especially due to mainstream media propaganda.

I bet institutional companies will buy even more BTC, contributing towards higher market prices in the long term. Once they stop buying, we should see BTC losing a portion of its value in the short term. Many have predicted BTC to reach a price of $100k, so maybe the halving is not priced in yet. For what I know, the crypto market behaves in many strange and bizarre ways. As long as we're able to make profits, nothing else matters.

[GeorgeJohn]

BTC has been "pumped" massively ever since the spot ETFs were approved in the US a few months ago. The rise has been exponential, making BTC reach a new ATH before the halving. This has never happened before in the history of crypto (AFAIK).

Considering that BTC is in a new ATH, I wonder if the halving is already priced in? If that's the case, then market prices will remain relatively the same post-halving. Don't you think?

Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

For me halving is already in place since bitcoin price or values cross forty thousand [40k] we all know that bitcoin halving has taken in place due to We have setup from the low variation of values since December last year, we started seeing a massive changes of bitcoin from 2023 and now the price has break another ATH, so we can not say right now that their is no halving...but in normal circumstances we  are suppose to expect halving in 2025 or within the middle of this year but the price of bitcoin might go down unexpectedly and return to variation of twenty five thousand to twenty thousand [25k/20k] if time is not taken the price will go down because it has happened before, after the price of Bitcoin rich 60,000 and the later it falls to Almost 25,000 before it started the rising again.

I don't think it will ever be the same as the price is now because as there are known scarce amount of BTC that will ever be, it's supply would just be less and less and if we are just here and the price is already at this range, as long as no one sells their BTC, it would increase more in price. The longer we stay in a certain range, the more likely it could go up because people would get used to that price already and would not want to sell for that amount.

you are right because the gravity of the demand of Bitcoin makes the price to continue to accelerate in value so therefore I believe that the price of Bitcoin can be depreciated when the supplies higher than the demand so provided that many people are still holding their Bitcoin and they will be expecting the prices to be higher so that they will say that we continue to give the price of Bitcoin to be going up instead of coming down, but another thing that I can influence the price of Bitcoin right now is when a false information comes up that is when the price of Bitcoin can reduce in value but right now that everyone is holding Bitcoin the tendency of the price reducing is very high.

People have said this every cycle & it’s always been proven that the halving is not priced in. Expect more aths in 2024 & 2025. I don’t make the rules, this is how Bitcoin works.

I think I will say that it is a speculation or exaggeration to people who thinks so, because right now I will say that nobody knows what Bitcoin can get into tomorrow we might enter 2025 and they will not experience having as expected by many people another information would also come up, and say that halving will commence in 2026, so what I want to ask you that if halving a commence today what indication that will show you that we are into halving except the price increasing.

[pooya87]

The only thing that continues to worry me in this entire "cycle" is the worsening situation with the global economy. With the way they're printing money while increasing the interest rates they are going against all their own strategies since this causes both inflation and recession at the same time.

That means people will liquidate more of their assets (that includes selling bitcoin) to make ends meet as prices soar and also they'll have less money to invest. In other words inflation + recession means more sell pressure + less demand.

Last but not least the Dedollarisation hasn't been done enough to decouple other countries' economies from the dollar and the US economy that has been a Ponzi scheme for decades is heading for the iceberg like Titanic...

[tiCeR]

The only thing that continues to worry me in this entire "cycle" is the worsening situation with the global economy. With the way they're printing money while increasing the interest rates they are going against all their own strategies since this causes both inflation and recession at the same time.

That means people will liquidate more of their assets (that includes selling bitcoin) to make ends meet as prices soar and also they'll have less money to invest. In other words inflation + recession means more sell pressure + less demand.

Last but not least the Dedollarisation hasn't been done enough to decouple other countries' economies from the dollar and the US economy that has been a Ponzi scheme for decades is heading for the iceberg like Titanic...

This is an important realization and something that I have come across more often during those harder times in recent years.

That means people will liquidate more of their assets (that includes selling bitcoin) to make ends meet as prices soar and also they'll have less money to invest. In other words inflation + recession means more sell pressure + less demand.

There could also be the misconception at play that higher interest rates may give some people more money on the money they already have, but some of them might underestimate the undermining effect of fiat devaluation compared to higher income they are making from interest. Turning $10 into $12 doesn't give 20% more purchasing power.

There is also a trailing effect of shrinking prices in the real estate industry. That's where liquidity gaps can emerge from valuation of properties and interest rate effects when it comes to refinancing long-term loans when fixed interest rate agreements come to an end.

There is a lot of turmoil going on and all this uncertainty probably more negatively impact the ability and tendency of people to buy BTC as you said. Even more so, some see themselves forced to liquidate assets in order to keep their heads above water.

But the total effects cannot easily be assessed as we now have so many big players enter the stage at the same time and I can imagine that companies like Blackrock will hoard most of their BTC, removing them from circulation for the long-term.

Halvings will probably continue to have some psychological effect on the market, but I deem your points more relevant and probably gain more relevance throughout the future. It probably means that the share and power of commercial investors in the market will decrease as their scope of action will shrink first with continued economic turmoil.

[Hallroom]

BTC has been "pumped" massively ever since the spot ETFs were approved in the US a few months ago. The rise has been exponential, making BTC reach a new ATH before the halving. This has never happened before in the history of crypto (AFAIK).

Considering that BTC is in a new ATH, I wonder if the halving is already priced in? If that's the case, then market prices will remain relatively the same post-halving. Don't you think?

Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

Bitcoin price will start to gradually increase only when the halving takes place, as there has been a lot of good news this year. All the good news coming in 2024 halving are positive so the peak Bitcoin market improvement is more likely after 2024 halving i.e. 2025 bull market. Bitcoin has made its new record high and is poised to make new records again.

[CryptoBuds]

The only thing that continues to worry me in this entire "cycle" is the worsening situation with the global economy. With the way they're printing money while increasing the interest rates they are going against all their own strategies since this causes both inflation and recession at the same time.

That means people will liquidate more of their assets (that includes selling bitcoin) to make ends meet as prices soar and also they'll have less money to invest. In other words inflation + recession means more sell pressure + less demand.

Last but not least the Dedollarisation hasn't been done enough to decouple other countries' economies from the dollar and the US economy that has been a Ponzi scheme for decades is heading for the iceberg like Titanic...

It should be noted that the war situation in the world will also contribute to destabilizing the world economy. I expected 2024 would be the year everything entered a recovery phase and we would have a super cycle. But with recent news such as inflation showing signs of rising again, it is likely that the Fed will not lower interest rates this year as initially expected, news about war in the Middle East...Things are not as we expected and the bad macro situation will certainly have some impact on our bull season. But let's hope for a miracle, a market breakthrough like how bitcoin has shown during the Covid pandemic.

[Abiky]

The only thing that continues to worry me in this entire "cycle" is the worsening situation with the global economy. With the way they're printing money while increasing the interest rates they are going against all their own strategies since this causes both inflation and recession at the same time.

That means people will liquidate more of their assets (that includes selling bitcoin) to make ends meet as prices soar and also they'll have less money to invest. In other words inflation + recession means more sell pressure + less demand.

Last but not least the Dedollarisation hasn't been done enough to decouple other countries' economies from the dollar and the US economy that has been a Ponzi scheme for decades is heading for the iceberg like Titanic...

Inflation means higher market prices for finite supply assets like BTC and Gold, right? With the global economy struggling to get back on its feet, we should expect BTC to reach a new ATH after the halving. Demand might've increased lately because of the spot ETFs approval in the US. But that's just the tip of the iceberg. The crypto market is unpredictable, so anything can happen.

Either market prices go up or all the way down the drain immediately after the halving. We won't know for sure until the event happens. One thing is certain and that is Fiat's days are numbered. Buying and "hodling" Bitcoin instead of saving money at a bank is the best decision you'll ever make. Who knows if BTC goes as far as replacing traditional currencies (Fiat) in the future?

[rodskee]

BTC has been "pumped" massively ever since the spot ETFs were approved in the US a few months ago. The rise has been exponential, making BTC reach a new ATH before the halving. This has never happened before in the history of crypto (AFAIK).

Considering that BTC is in a new ATH, I wonder if the halving is already priced in? If that's the case, then market prices will remain relatively the same post-halving. Don't you think?

Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

Few days before halving arrives yet ?

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/


I thought Yesterday is recovery but nope, it falls back to 62k and there is a big chances that
the price will fall below 60k, is this possible to happen as the halving mostly brings bad falls for the whole market.

[Adbitco]

Considering that BTC is in a new ATH, I wonder if the halving is already priced in? If that's the case, then market prices will remain relatively the

There must be changes and one thing for sure about bitcoin is that despite the ETF there will always be a price change, maybe the previous ATH that was gain was as the cause of ETF. Now we are about experiencing the halving which is just 3 days and some hours left away according to the record on coinmarketcap, the halving must surely plays its role since we do records new ATH after halving. Apparently, we can't dispute and neglect the history and for about 3 halving history has never changes, so the only changes we saw now was only the effects of the ETF which I still think there is every possibility we can still see more price surge after this halving comes 2025.