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Author Topic: Bitcoin Stagflation  (Read 1516 times)
caston
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December 18, 2011, 05:23:49 PM
 #1

I've been watching the price since Wednesday and its barely moved. Could we be about to go through a uber-boring period where there a more coins being mined so inflation is increasing but the actual price remains solid?

I guess we may find out by the time this weekend is up.

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DeathAndTaxes
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December 18, 2011, 06:10:37 PM
 #2

That isn't stagflation.

Also inflation of monetary supply is never increasing in Bitcoin, not once, not ever.
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December 18, 2011, 06:24:40 PM
 #3

I've been watching the price since Wednesday and its barely moved. Could we be about to go through a uber-boring period where there a more coins being mined so inflation is increasing but the actual price remains solid?

I guess we may find out by the time this weekend is up.

I don't think it's right to say that inflation is increasing but prices remain the same.  Inflation is when prices don't remain the same - they go up.
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December 18, 2011, 09:49:52 PM
 #4

I've been watching the price since Wednesday and its barely moved. Could we be about to go through a uber-boring period where there a more coins being mined so inflation is increasing but the actual price remains solid?

I guess we may find out by the time this weekend is up.

I don't think it's right to say that inflation is increasing but prices remain the same.  Inflation is when prices don't remain the same - they go up.

If the price remain the same then it's inflating at the same rate as USD. It's not a pretty rate, if you ask me.
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December 18, 2011, 09:53:17 PM
 #5

I've been watching the price since Wednesday and its barely moved. Could we be about to go through a uber-boring period where there a more coins being mined so inflation is increasing but the actual price remains solid?

I guess we may find out by the time this weekend is up.
There's never more coins being mined... small variances, but it always corrects itself to 7200 coins/day, and averages out to about that amount even including the variances.
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December 19, 2011, 01:58:19 AM
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I've been watching the price since Wednesday and its barely moved. Could we be about to go through a uber-boring period where there a more coins being mined so inflation is increasing but the actual price remains solid?

I guess we may find out by the time this weekend is up.

Oooo, since wednesday? That's nothing in the big scheme of things. Might as well say "I've been watching the price since 10 minutes ago, and it has only changed 2 cents, we must have reached a stable exchange rate!"

What do you mean by "there are more coins being mined"? We are still having the exact amount of coins mined now as any other time - the system is set up so the number of coins mined stays the same.

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December 19, 2011, 02:29:29 AM
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In fact since the total supply is greater, the dilution effect those new coins have on the overall market grows smaller every day. Therefore, by design as time continues, the effect of newly minted coins on the bitcoin economy becomes less significant. This coupled with the stability in price over the past month makes me think we have reached bitcoin fundamentals. Only time will tell but I dont think we should deviate too far in the near term from current values and that is a good thing for bitcoin.
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December 19, 2011, 03:04:04 AM
 #8

What we're probably seeing is the temporary exit of speculators.  I have no doubt they'll be back, but at this stage there is no one willing to throw thousands of bitcoins around to feed their speculative needs.  A boring and static price tends to drive the arbitrage and speculative traders away, which makes the price stagnate even more.  It's a feedback loop.

It's similar to a game of poker.  When the fish have gone broke and only the experienced players are left at the table, it's time to take the chips and go home.  Any further play will just hurt the experienced player.

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ineededausername
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December 19, 2011, 03:42:33 AM
 #9

In some 40-min intervals today, only 15 BTC was traded.  AFAIK that's a very low minimum!

24h volume just under 10k BTC, which is a small fraction of the normal volume (30-50k).

In other news, 30-day EMA is above $3.

(BFL)^2 < 0
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December 19, 2011, 03:44:46 AM
 #10

In some 40-min intervals today, only 15 BTC was traded.  AFAIK that's a very low minimum!

24h volume just under 10k BTC, which is a small fraction of the normal volume (30-50k).

Looks like the holiday low volume theory could be right after all.
caston
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December 19, 2011, 04:06:22 AM
 #11

People with a short or long position go nuts when there is no volume. Sometimes if its moving in one direction then it stagnates for a long time it moves in the opposite direction once it does start to move again though. To me it seems like it is *slowly* going up. Sometimes slowly up going accelerates and turns into a rally.

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