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Author Topic: point of maximum pain  (Read 10024 times)
Raize
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March 31, 2014, 05:40:57 PM
 #21

Waiting for Proudhon calling the bottom.

You should wait for me to call it instead. I've gotten it right before, after all. (Ignore the modified date, that post was modified only to edit some incorrect grammar and fix the img link)

I think we're still a ways away from it, honestly. We've gotten mostly good news out of only one country, the UK. The rest have been mostly negative, China tempting to ban it, US taxing it egregiously. It'll take some time for folks to adjust their expenses and expectations.

Also, there's a whole lot of miners that need to stop selling before we start seeing accumulation again.

When's the next halving at current estimates? When are second generation ASICs coming out? There's a lot of unanswered questions that have more of an impact on price, IMHO than anything else.

Also, how's this one for a prediction? (Note the date: May 2012. The post was about predicting the next two years. I was off on the price valuation and forced transaction fees[unless you consider the IRS regulations forced fees], but not on second-gen ASICs, regulations, and low expenses). Proudhon on the first page suspects the price will hover in the $3-$7 range. I'm not mentioning this to discredit him, because I think he's very good at noting short-term price movements and other extraneous things, but for longer range estimates, you've got to treat Bitcoin like a commodity that has the cost of mining adjusted every time a new mining method comes out that revolutionizes the way present miners obtain coin.

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April 02, 2014, 05:40:13 PM
 #22

Watching.  Waiting.
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April 02, 2014, 05:40:42 PM
 #23

It's coming.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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April 02, 2014, 05:42:38 PM
 #24

It's happening.
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April 02, 2014, 05:44:17 PM
 #25

We just need to get rid of these Mt Gox model exchanges and switch to brokerages because exchanges are very risky. That will foster distributed exchanges to be developed because they are less susceptible to panic and volatility.

Yes, this.  It's happening, and the transition is clearly affecting the market.  Still a ways to go on that one, but with Gox finally out of the way this process is well underway.

This is the number one problem and it is simply not happening fast enough. The pain from failing exchanges and constant fear in where you put your bitcoin won't be resolved ANY TIME SOON.

How funny that a coin built around no trust is undone by not having institutions you can trust.

This is the fundamental paradox of the Bitcoin ecosystem. Removing trust in payment is only a small microscopic piece into what makes Bitcoin valuable, the rest of the ecosystem requires trust and loads of it.

We need developers to realize this and either solve it with distributed exchanges and other ways to grow the economy of bitcoin without being scammed by the Mark's of the world.


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April 02, 2014, 05:49:12 PM
 #26

Capitulation will probably start when we cross the 400 USD mark.
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April 02, 2014, 05:53:22 PM
 #27

Starting to feel like December. Controlling fear on the way down and greed on the way up is key.

I think I'll go shopping today.
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April 02, 2014, 05:57:09 PM
 #28

Capitulation will probably start when we cross the 400 USD mark.

This

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April 02, 2014, 05:58:04 PM
 #29

Prounhon probably knows that there is no good reason why bitcoin should be as high as it is. That is your intuition speaking to you.


I don't think you will ever find maximum pain with bitcoin reading posts in the forums, if the price goes to $200, then to $100, most people will just be talking how cheap the coin is and how great a buy it is.
.

Everybody wants to get rich quick now, It is not going to happen that easily, not until the price falls way lower and stays at that price point for a long time. Than it will need something to pump it again. Last time it was china, who knows what it will be next time.




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April 02, 2014, 06:00:39 PM
 #30

Capitulation will probably start when we cross the 400 USD mark.
Oh no you dih'un say the C word.

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April 02, 2014, 06:01:32 PM
 #31

Watching.  Waiting.

385  Cool
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April 02, 2014, 07:35:57 PM
 #32

Plenty of oldtimers coming out of the woodwork for this thread.

I've been here riding the waves since 2011. The point of maximum pain is not here yet. But I predict it will be here soon. Best brace yourself for it now. When you start mentally calculating what consolation prize you can buy if you dump your stash right now, it's close. When you imagine the humiliation of telling your friends/spouse/whatever how all of the monopoly money you've been bragging about is now worthless, it's very close.

Throw your mouse across the room, scream at your monitor, lay your head on your desk and cry. Then pull yourself together and buy as much bitcoin as you can afford.

 

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April 02, 2014, 07:44:58 PM
 #33

I feel a disturbance in the force also. I don't know where the bottom is, but based on intuition I sent some money to an exchange this morning. If I see things start to ramp up I'm filling my spending wallet. 

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April 02, 2014, 07:50:13 PM
 #34

i feel it.
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April 02, 2014, 07:50:35 PM
 #35

Proudhon talks sense, i'm glad i'm not the only one.
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April 02, 2014, 08:07:50 PM
 #36

Still waiting for Proudhon's call
Hope I have patience

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April 02, 2014, 08:08:55 PM
 #37

Plenty of oldtimers coming out of the woodwork for this thread.

I've been here riding the waves since 2011. The point of maximum pain is not here yet. But I predict it will be here soon. Best brace yourself for it now. When you start mentally calculating what consolation prize you can buy if you dump your stash right now, it's close. When you imagine the humiliation of telling your friends/spouse/whatever how all of the monopoly money you've been bragging about is now worthless, it's very close.

Throw your mouse across the room, scream at your monitor, lay your head on your desk and cry. Then pull yourself together and buy as much bitcoin as you can afford.

IMHO I think we might still be a ways off from max pain. In 2011 we looked at a 95% drop which was essentially a complete wipeout. That would take us to $60 on this cycle.

If we hit sub-$100 again I'm pretty sure the negativity will be absolute. That is my buy more target. The bitcoin I do have I am unwilling to sell though since you never know when the trend will reverse.
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April 02, 2014, 08:09:23 PM
 #38

Well this fucked me up nicely tbh. I dont have much invested but I take it to hearth  Tongue
Just closed ltc long, it seams its going south much more than btc.
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April 02, 2014, 08:12:16 PM
 #39

Well this fucked me up nicely tbh. I dont have much invested but I take it to hearth  Tongue
Just closed ltc long, it seams its going south much more than btc.

yes litecoin $2 seems likely
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April 02, 2014, 08:18:29 PM
 #40

In a way I have capitulated. Retirement has been postponed.  Cry

I refuse to sell any coins, so I have gone back to work.

I only need about half my income to survive, so the cheaper they get, the more I will buy.

Things may be bad this year, but 2015 will be here in less than a year.

And 2016 is just after it.  I expect that will be the year of Bitcoin. Cool

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