🚨 STAKE.COM’S RTP IS A SCAM! MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE!

[Saint-loup]

I'm not a blackjack player so someone can help me out here so I can come up with what I think.

What's the percentage of wins and losses is normal throwing out pushes.

Win 52.5% and lose 47.5?

I don't know which kind of blackjack game and special rules you are referring to, but if there was a game paying out 1:1 while players were winning more than half times the bank would run out quickly, don't you think?
For a standard blackjack game if the player follows the basic strategy:
The player has 43% chances to win, 9% to push and 48% chances to lose.
Ignoring pushes it's 47.5% chances to win and 52.5% chances of losing. So it's the opposite actually.

The odds of winning in blackjack can vary depending on the variation of the game and the strategy used by the player. The industry standard on the probability of a win in a typical shoe blackjack game is 43.3%, a push is 8.7%, and a loss is 48.0% if you use the basic strategy. When we ignore the pushes, the probability of winning is 47.4%, and the probability of losing is 52.6%.

https://www.blacklotuscasino.com/casino/blog/blackjack-odds

[holydarkness]

I don't want to say stake.com originals is rigged because I don't have any proof, but I feel like there's something wrong with stake.com Originals. Here's why I feel this way: Every time I click or double my bet the next result is a loss (often), even with low odds. This has happened to me many times in Limbo as well. For example, on my first spin playing Limbo, I went all in and the result was x1 (0). This doesn't just happen on Stake.com; it has also happen on other casinos I played. Because of this, I don't play Originals anymore, except if there's tournaments. I'm more focus now in sportbetting.

it's all just mind games on our end. as a 1.1x dice enjoyer, i lose way too many times as well than i would like when i go all in. (please don't try this, it's stupid)
but i'm sure no shady business is going on in the background as most of the original games are provably fair, and you can always verify the results using third party tools like the one from BTCGOSU: https://www.btcgosu.com/tools/provably-fair-verifier/

no harm checking the results from time to time, just to be sure.

Without much experience on this field [so my words can perhaps be treated as empty air], IMO the idea that originals being rigged can be somewhat thwarted. On a past case regarding Stake's Minesweeper game, a rep of CG even went to a length to create an account here [granted, he didn't state it openly that he's the CG staff, but it can be very easily inferred], built his own verifier,explain to the player [whom... rather have similar trait with this OP] how he can test with his "home-made" verifier, and shown that [IIRC] random sampling came out verifiable.

[BlackyJacky]

Without much experience on this field [so my words can perhaps be treated as empty air], IMO the idea that originals being rigged can be somewhat thwarted. On a past case regarding Stake's Minesweeper game, a rep of CG even went to a length to create an account here [granted, he didn't state it openly that he's the CG staff, but it can be very easily inferred], built his own verifier,explain to the player [whom... rather have similar trait with this OP] how he can test with his "home-made" verifier, and shown that [IIRC] random sampling came out verifiable.

No problem that you do not have much experience on this field, I am able to enlighten you:  

Info 1)

The advertised house edge for Stake's in-house Black Jack is 0,5%, which means long-term I will lose 0,5% of all bets placed.

However, if you take a look at my statistics here https://ibb.co/Hxf8NpR you can see the following total numbers:

Bets: 180,904

Wins: 78,285

Losses: 86,612

If we reduce the number of wins from the number of losses, we can see that I lost 8,327 bets (86,612 minus 78,285 = 8,327)

Losing 8,327 bets out of 180,904 bets placed = 4,6% of the bets lost.

0,5% house edge out of 180,900 bets placed I should lose 900 bets + a possible small deviation.

8,327 bets lost - 900 bets I should lose = 7,427 bets too much lost.


Info 2)

Bets

After 180,900 bets, the technically maximal possible deviation is 0,4% from the expected outcome according to the law of large numbers (See Info 3).

180,000 bets x 0,4% = 720 bets I could maximal additionally lose on top of the 900 bets I will lose based on the 0,5% house edge.

7,427 bets too much lost minus 720 bets I can additional maximal lose = 6,707 bets = additional 9,3 times on top of the maximal possible deviation!

House edge

0,5% house edge = 900 bets plus 720 bets I can maximal additionally lose = 80% additional maximal possible deviation from the house edge.

0,5% house edge plus 0,4% (80% additional maximal possible deviation) = 0,9% maximal possible experienced house edge!

Experienced house edge 4,6% minus 0,9% maximal possible experienced house edge = 3,7% additional experienced house edge!

3,7% additional experienced house edge : 0,4% additional maximal possible deviation = additional 9,3 times on top of the maximal possible deviation!

Stake's own bets statistics is 100% proof that their in-house Black Jack system is rigged!


Info 3)

When the house edge is 0,5% and you placed 180,900 bets, you will lose 900 bets and the remaining 180,000 bets are coin flips.

The remaining 180,000 bets are coin flips, because they are neutral and you will win 50% = 90,000 bets and lose 50% = 90,000 bets.


Now let's take a look at the technically maximal possible deviation for 180,000 coin flips:

A) Standard deviation for 180,000 coin flips = 212 coin flips = 0,12% (In 68% of all attempts, the deviation is up to 0,12%)

B) 3 times standard deviation for 180,000 coin flips = 0,36% (In 99,7% of all attempts, the deviation is up to 0.36%)
 
What does 99,7% mean?

When you make 333 times a serie of 180,900 bets, then 332 times the deviation from the expected outcome will be up to 0,36% and only one time the deviation will be higher than 0,36%.

I was not able to find how much the deviation could be in this one case where it is higher than 0,36%, but likely not more than 10% of the 0,36% = 0,4%.


Info 4)

The Stake bet transaction history only states 180,900 single bet events and no overview of my experienced house edge.

To get my experienced house edge from the bet transaction history, I would need to take a look at all 180,900 bets and calculate it manually!

If the cards were dealt fair and I lost only 0,5% of all bets placed while the statistics states that I lost 4,6%, then the Stake statistics is rigged!

In either case, the Stake in-house Black Jack system is provably rigged and Stake has to compensate at least the 30,000 USD I lost from my pocket.

[Saint-loup]

A game can be provably fair, meaning you can check if the outcome you get is the right one you should get from your client seed, the server seed and the nonce but lying on its house edge. How could you check that here? I didn't find how they've calculated it. For a simple game like dice it's easy to calculate because you just need to look at the range of numbers you should get to win among the total of numbers eligible for drawing. But for a game with more complex rules and an optimal strategy to follow, like blackjack, it's not easy at all.
BTW @BlackyJacky may I ask you, how often do you change your client seed and "rotate" the server one? Do you keep the default value for the client seed or do you use a "personal" seed? If it's a personal one, do you change it each time, or do you always use the same seed?

[BlackyJacky]

A game can be provably fair, meaning you can check if the outcome you get is right one you should get from your client seed, the server seed and the nonce but lying on this house edge. How could you check that here? I didn't find how they've calculated it. For a simple game like dice it's easy to calculate because you just need to look at the range of numbers you should get to win among the total of numbers eligible for drawing. But for a game with more complex rules and an optimal strategy to follow, like blackjack, it's not easy at all.

If you play the optimal strategy (which I did), Stake advertises the house edge with 0,5%.

BTW @BlackyJacky may I ask you, how often do you change your client seed and "rotate" the server one? Do you keep the default value for the client seed or do you use a "personal" seed? If it's a personal one, do you change it each time, or do you always use the same seed?

So the "provably fair" depends on whether or not I used my own client seed and whether or not I changed it after every hand?

Oh noooo, I did not use my "personal" seed and did not change it after every hand, so it is my fault it is not provably fair!

On a side note: When you change the client seed after every hand, after around 200 times Stake blocks you from doing so for 1 hour!

[Saint-loup]

You didn't understand what I mean, I'm not blaming you and accusing you of having done things in a wrong way. I try to understand how they could be able to rig the game and cheat the player. They announce a house edge of 0.57% precisely and it looks consistent with the rules(quite common) they apply. So if they are cheating it's through the distribution of cards, but it is provably fair. And if the player uses a personal client seed, not predictable, they can't cheat because the value of the cards takes into account the client seed while the server seed can't be changed because its hash code is displayed before and can be checked after the round.
What's your theory?
 

Unlimited decks in play.
Insurance is an optional side bet only available when the dealer reveals an Ace face card.
If both the player and the dealer have natural blackjack, then the result is a push.
If the dealer has natural blackjack, game concludes and insurance is paid if taken.
You can only split once.
You cannot hit on split aces.
You can double on any first two cards.
You can double on a split.
Dealer stands on soft 17.

[BlackyJacky]

What is your theory why the 2 RuneScape players and the chat moderator do not compensate me, even though I have 100% proof that their in-house Black Jack system is rigged and I unjustifiably lost around 30,000 USD?

[Saint-loup]

What is your theory why the 2 RuneScape players and the chat moderator do not compensate me, even though I have 100% proof that their in-house Black Jack system is rigged and I unjustifiably lost around 30,000 USD?

It would be more undeniable if you were able to identify how the game could be, or actually is if you are right, rigged IMO. Their algorithm generating card values is maybe not perfectly equiprobable(for any or for most client seed) and cards favoring the dealer(ie the house) have maybe a probability of occurrence a bit higher in the end. Or maybe it is just badly random, and some series with a given sever seed and client seed incremented by the nonce tend to produce more cards favoring the dealer or more cards favoring the player, instead of giving a more entropic distribution. I don't know if anyone has already tested the randomness of this algorithm and if results are available somewhere but you have to keep in mind that the game doesn't use a RNG to generate card values like most provably fair games.

[BlackyJacky]

What is your theory why the 2 RuneScape players and the chat moderator do not compensate me, even though I have 100% proof that their in-house Black Jack system is rigged and I unjustifiably lost around 30,000 USD?

It would be more undeniable if you were able to identify how the game could be, or actually is if you are right, rigged IMO.

I never said that the card dealing system is rigged, I say that their in-house Black Jack system is rigged and have 100% proof.

The Stake statistics is part of their in-house Black Jack system, as it reflects (or should reflect) what I experienced there.

Info 4)

The Stake bet transaction history only states 180,900 single bet events and no overview of my experienced house edge.

To get my experienced house edge from the bet transaction history, I would need to take a look at all 180,900 bets and calculate it manually!

If the cards were dealt fair and I lost only 0,5% of all bets placed while the statistics states that I lost 4,6%, then the Stake statistics is rigged!

In either case, the Stake in-house Black Jack system is provably rigged and Stake has to compensate at least the 30,000 USD I lost from my pocket.

You appear to have not understood the information I have posted?

[Saint-loup]

I never said that the card dealing system is rigged, I say that their in-house Black Jack system is rigged and have 100% proof.

The Stake statistics is part of their in-house Black Jack system, as it reflects (or should reflect) what I experienced there.

Info 4)

The Stake bet transaction history only states 180,900 single bet events and no overview of my experienced house edge.

To get my experienced house edge from the bet transaction history, I would need to take a look at all 180,900 bets and calculate it manually!

If the cards were dealt fair and I lost only 0,5% of all bets placed while the statistics states that I lost 4,6%, then the Stake statistics is rigged!

In either case, the Stake in-house Black Jack system is provably rigged and Stake has to compensate at least the 30,000 USD I lost from my pocket.

You appear to have not understood the information I have posted?

I'm not statistician neither mathematician so I can't tell if the figures you put forward to the public are enough to prove the game is actually rigged or not, unfortunately. Blackjack is not a dice or a coin toss game with 1:1 payout. There is also blackjack and insurance winnings not paying out 1:1 on top of pushes. And when you split or double down, the stake is doubled. In addition we don't know if you have always placed the same stake for all rounds or if you have followed some martingale strategies.

[BlackyJacky]

I'm not statistician neither mathematician so I can't tell if the figures you put forward to the public are enough to prove the game is actually rigged or not, unfortunately.

If you are neither a statistician nor a mathematician, how can you check whether or not Stake's in-house Black Jack system is fair?

There is also blackjack and insurance winnings not paying out 1:1 on top of pushes. And when you split or double down, the stake is doubled. In addition we don't know if you have always placed the same stake for all rounds or if you have followed some martingale strategies.

0,5% house edge means that every 100 bets you placed you statistically will lose 0,5 bets and the bet amount does not bear any relevance!

Info 1)

The advertised house edge for the Stake in-house Black Jack is 0,5%, which means longterm I will lose 0,5% of all bets placed.

However, if you take a look at my statistics here https://ibb.co/Hxf8NpR you can see the following total numbers:

Bets: 180,904

Wins: 78,285

Losses: 86,612

If we reduce the number of wins from the number of losses, we can see that I lost 8,327 bets (86,612 minus 78,285 = 8,327)

Losing 8,327 bets out of 180,904 bets placed = 4,6% of the bets lost.

0,5% house edge out of 180,900 bets placed I should lose 900 bets + a possible small deviation.

8,327 bets lost - 900 bets I should lose = 7,427 bets too much lost.

You appear to have not understood the information I have posted?

[Saint-loup]

No, I'm not but AFAIK neither you unfortunately. You are complaining since 2 years and 350+ posts now but you still don't seem to have convinced much people and to have been able to get anything except a red tag from several members sadly. That's why I think you should look for a real statistician or actuary, able to endorse your argument. Or maybe just an AI at least, does ChatGPT agree with your conclusions for example? I don't know how much it would cost but you could also ask to an independent gambling certifier like eCOGRA, BMM Testlabs, GLI, iTechLabs, QUINEL or a smaller one, if they could test it and analyze it. You can play with one single satoshi so they could test it rather deeply without spending much money IMO.
https://europebestcasinos.com/casino-guide/casino-test-labs/

[BlackyJacky]

If you are neither a statistician nor a mathematician, how can you check whether or not Stake's in-house Black Jack system is fair?

No, I'm not but AFAIK neither you unfortunately.

While you are not able to check if Stake's in-house Black Jack system is fair because you are neither a statistician nor a mathematician, I myself are very well able to check it, even though I am neither a statistician nor a mathematician.

How is this possible?

I simply use the globally recognized information published by statisticians and mathematicians.  

For example, they published the law of great numbers which determines the technically maximal possible deviation from the expected outcome.

Now it comes, sit down well and hold on tight, when my experienced deviation at Stake's in-house Black Jack system is 10 times higher than technically maximal possible based on the globally recognized law of great numbers, then this is 100% proof that Stake's in-house Black Jack system is rigged!

Understood?

[AHOYBRAUSE]

No, I'm not but AFAIK neither you unfortunately. You are complaining since 2 years and 350+ posts now but you still don't seem to have convinced much people and to have been able to get anything except a red tag from several members sadly. That's why I think you should look for a real statistician or actuary, able to endorse your argument. Or maybe just an AI at least, does ChatGPT agree with your conclusions for example? I don't know how much it would cost but you could also ask to an independent gambling certifier like eCOGRA, BMM Testlabs, GLI, iTechLabs, QUINEL or a smaller one, if they could test it and analyze it. You can play with one single satoshi so they could test it rather deeply without spending much money IMO.
https://europebestcasinos.com/casino-guide/casino-test-labs/

when I requested my data from Stake, they asked me to provide an identifiable image, despite being KYC3 verified. If their hands are truly clean, why not provide my data and hand history? Here’s a hint: when I was about to reach Plat3, my wagerings weren’t being added to my account, and I even recorded a video documenting this issue. I’ll use this as evidence, as I firmly believe Stake's original games are rigged. They’re clearly avoiding sharing the data with me.

Would you be willing to help me get my data so we can verify this together? What do you think?

Also, here is my recent chat with their support, I feel they are AI powered and they are known to use fake images of real people from the internet.

I love Zarko's reply because the way you address him is just hilarious.
You are blaming a customer support agent for your situation. Like it's his fault or whatever. 
They stole your monthly, oh buhuuuu. Why do you even want a monthly when they are such a bad company? Why don't you move on to a new site you can blame? Stake and Duelbits have the checkmark, you can get "scammed" somewhere else now don't you think?
The last phrase is the best though: "I am really worried for my safety." . I am actually worried for your sanity at this point. 
The desperation is real. I suppose you lost all you got and this is your last straw. Blaming them as much as you can trying to blackmail them long enough to give you something back. Others tried that before you and failed, so this won't work.

[PHFX]

Technical data???

[tetaeridanus]

Technical data???

STAKE WON'T PROVIDE ME ONE AND THEY INSIST ITS IN PROGRESS.

Peace out, everyone. I’m officially done updating my threads here, as I no longer want to be a part of or interact with this criminal empire. The reality of platforms like Stake is far darker than what’s presented, and after seeing how deeply embedded they are in the world of sports sponsorship (like F1, football clubs, and cricket), it’s clear they have a massive grip on things.

Stake.com’s connections in Curacao and their partnerships with massive entities only further solidify the illusion of fairness, with people like holydarkness working to keep that facade intact. The truth is, anyone can get a license for a site like Stake, and the operations are far from transparent. These games are designed to keep you hooked, using everything from raffles to promotions to manipulate vulnerable players into continuing the cycle.

I urge you all to evaluate your life and what’s truly at stake before and after joining platforms like this. Stay vigilant. Don't let yourself be deceived by flashy promotions and sponsorships. I'm stepping away for good, as I no longer wish to engage with a platform rooted in these practices. Stay strong, think critically, and take care.

Altough many of your allegations are without any proof; I would like to let you know, stake is a site with a signature campaign here; do you believe people who are sponsored by stake will reply to your accusations? No. I don’t know if your allegations are correct or not since I am really distant to stake.com after a incident I had with them years back which I also came here like you and talked with holydarkness. However you should know that whatever someone says here is useless unless stake intervenes. One thing I agree with you here is many people don’t voice opinions because of getting flagged by casinos for further signature campaigns. They ‘prefer’ being neutral instead of standing by truth. This limits the ability of ‘scam accusations’ to function. Look at how people are helpful when the site at spotlight is a trash casino and how they say ‘ scam scam scam ‘ . But when the casino is a big casino who owns a signature campaign here gets to the topic; only few people come and respond. I don’t believe this act to be fair and actually disrespectful to individuals who are suffering from actual scams.

On your case, you accusations are nothing without significant proof. If you have enough proof; go to a court and make a legal case. You are wasting time here.

Best.

[ryzaadit]

I would like to let you know, stake is a site with a signature campaign here; do you believe people who are sponsored by stake will reply to your accusations? No.

I say yes, even @AHOYBRAUSE talked a lot of shit about the bonus system from Stake and he wearing "STAKE" signature even some other member who are wearing other signature casinos will mostly respond as well. However, It depends on the person too..... cause typical user like @OP he starting gambling by think have a good math > thinking can beat the system > but resulting in lost > he thinks, my calculation is right and I was not wrong.

I been dealing with typical user like these, even those from the same country "India". He tells and opened public case, "STAKE" manipulation the mines system based on the clicked mouse of user. He doing what's @OP did, doesn't believe and just spamming for the case and other things even we all know every hash game after the start button started generated a hash to determine the result (all of you seeing or doing, is part of the animation).


In the end, he spamming in here > still believe he was right > telling all people sock puppets from here. I always recommended you better find some other resource you can use for open the public case. Example like CASINO GURU, and he CASINO GURU mostly taken the same conclusion like user from the forum but he blaming CASINO GURU it self.


By the way, most signature members are also gamblers. They use the money they receive for gambling as well. If they feel the case was a mistake from the casino, they will request the user create a public thread to avoid a member like you said (who is mostly not a player) or just defend the casino because of his signature. A few years in gambling casino, some of case are really always have a problem
- Typical user like @OP.
- Sportbet user.

I more like it a case from casino or slot sector.

[AHOYBRAUSE]

I would like to let you know, stake is a site with a signature campaign here; do you believe people who are sponsored by stake will reply to your accusations? No.

I say yes, even @AHOYBRAUSE talked a lot of shit about the bonus system from Stake and he wearing "STAKE" signature even some other member who are wearing other signature casinos will mostly respond as well. However, It depends on the person too..... cause typical user like @OP he starting gambling by think have a good math > thinking can beat the system > but resulting in lost > he thinks, my calculation is right and I was not wrong.

I been dealing with typical user like these, even those from the same country "India". He tells and opened public case, "STAKE" manipulation the mines system based on the clicked mouse of user. He doing what's @OP did, doesn't believe and just spamming for the case and other things even we all know every hash game after the start button started generated a hash to determine the result (all of you seeing or doing, is part of the animation).


In the end, he spamming in here > still believe he was right > telling all people sock puppets from here. I always recommended you better find some other resource you can use for open the public case. Example like CASINO GURU, and he CASINO GURU mostly taken the same conclusion like user from the forum but he blaming CASINO GURU it self.


By the way, most signature members are also gamblers. They use the money they receive for gambling as well. If they feel the case was a mistake from the casino, they will request the user create a public thread to avoid a member like you said (who is mostly not a player) or just defend the casino because of his signature. A few years in gambling casino, some of case are really always have a problem
- Typical user like @OP.
- Sportbet user.

I more like it a case from casino or slot sector.

True, wearing the signature doesn't mean you have to like everything they do. Since I am a long time member on stake there have been many changes in the past that I didn't like, and I voice my opinion. Yet there are also many things that I do like, and I am talking about those as well. Just because I am in a campaign doesn't mean I blindly defend the site or close my eyes when problems arise.
I take it the way I see it and I think even a casino would appreciate that honesty. Some other people don't work that way, I have a certain someone in mind from a different casino that blindly defends without knowing anything about the site. Just saying people make things up while clear evidence of bs gets posted.  That's not how it's supposed to be.

There is a reason why stake is the market leader up until now.

[tetaeridanus]

True, wearing the signature doesn't mean you have to like everything they do. Since I am a long time member on stake there have been many changes in the past that I didn't like, and I voice my opinion. Yet there are also many things that I do like, and I am talking about those as well. Just because I am in a campaign doesn't mean I blindly defend the site or close my eyes when problems arise.
I take it the way I see it and I think even a casino would appreciate that honesty. Some other people don't work that way, I have a certain someone in mind from a different casino that blindly defends without knowing anything about the site. Just saying people make things up while clear evidence of bs gets posted.  That's not how it's supposed to be.

There is a reason why stake is the market leader up until now.

Hey, I wasn’t talking about you. I was talking what I see on the forum sadly. Someone doesn’t need to defend, staying silent means defending them. Personal connections are above everything else as it seems. Well they wouldn’t appreciate if you call them scammers if it was true; if you are talking about honesty .

I am saying that, OP accuses stake.com as a scam site; he didn’t get scammed. He basically says stake.com is scamming it’s users; this is not a case that should be mentioned here. If he has enough evidence, legal way is the more appropriate way. I actually got my fair share of stake.com; which can be seen on first post; wasn’t solved either. I have seen many people’s cases directly rejected by CG when they are valid enough to actually start a dispute. It is internet, no one knows what happens behind.

If OP actually had a solid case, I would be talking differently here; but I don’t understand how he got scammed.

[Rating Place]

As of today, I’ve been dealing with an unresolved data request with Stake.com for over three months. After I submitted a request for access to my personal data, including wager histories, I was asked for an identifiable image, despite being KYC3 verified. This request raised serious concerns, as it seems they are trying to stall rather than provide the transparency I’m entitled to under GDPR.

In our most recent interaction (December 13, 2024), I was told that they cannot expedite my request due to high volumes of inquiries and that the team responsible for handling it is beyond their control. I was also informed that the matter is actively being addressed, but no timeline or concrete actions were given. The communication lacks clarity, and I’ve even had to document instances where my wagers weren’t being counted as I approached Plat3, which I believe points to potential rigging of their original games.

Despite repeated requests for updates, I’ve been met with generic apologies and vague assurances. This delay and lack of ownership is not only frustrating but concerning, especially given the sensitive nature of the information I’ve requested.

As I continue to seek resolution, I urge anyone dealing with similar issues to consider their options carefully and demand better transparency and action from Stake. If anyone has experienced similar delays or concerns, I would appreciate any insights or suggestions on how to proceed further.

I’ll continue to update this thread as the situation unfolds.

Stake is the worst by far for KYC delays and delays in communication. There are cases here that have gone on for months. That said, I don’t see the scam by Stake.