2025 Difficulty thread. Planning to make 2025 the last one I do.

[alh]

For good or for bad, BTC price has recently dropped to $86K. We'll have to see if that is a "blip" or a longer term change.

[joker_josue]

@philipma1957 in terms of network difficulty, has it made sense for the current market situation?

We have seen several weeks with few transactions. Rates remain low. And now there has been a small price drop.

[philipma1957]

unfortunately trump has tried to switch sides over the Ukraine and become pro Russia .

Quite frankly I think this has scared the shit out of a lot of people.

So retreat to gold is big.  I think we need to step back and not do 1 day or 1 week or even 2 week pictures.

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   885295  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   95.3313%  (272 / 285.32 expected, 13.32 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   114167270716407.6                            
Current Difficulty:   110568428300952.7                            
Next Difficulty:   between 105414338887400 and 109224585840431
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.6614% and -1.2154%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 3:29 PM  (-3.1523%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 9, 2025 at 8:37 PM  (in 12d 4h 35m 14s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 10, 2025 at 8:56 AM  (in 12d 16h 54m 5s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 8m 26s and 14d 16h 27m 18s


a second drop so far 114 to 110 to maybe 107

go back and look at 2021 the double top was April 2021 then nov 2021

trump's moves may be making a double top

so we ARE SEEING THE DIFF DROP.

TREND IS NEW we will need at least 20 days in this direction to know .

if it is true diff will go under 100t maybe to 80t

and price will drop as low as 66k

All very early so be steady folks



Latest Block:   886165  (6 minutes ago)


Current Pace:   100.8287%  (1142 / 1132.61 expected, 9.39 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   114167270716407.6                            
Current Difficulty:   110568428300952.7                            
Next Difficulty:   between 111313027862497 and 111486797541562
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.6734% and +0.8306%
Previous Retarget:   February 23, 2025 at 3:29 PM  (-3.1523%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 1:43 PM  (in 6d 0h 28m 10s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 2:14 PM  (in 6d 0h 59m 18s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 21h 14m 18s and 13d 21h 45m 27s


still moving up a bit



Slipped to just a bit negative


Latest Block:   886492  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.8275%  (1469 / 1471.54 expected, 2.54 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   114167270716407.6                            
Current Difficulty:   110568428300952.7                            
Next Difficulty:   between 110379357253254 and 110393254540327
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.1710% and -0.1584%
Previous Retarget:   February 23, 2025 at 3:29 PM  (-3.1523%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 5:01 PM  (in 3d 19h 16m 53s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 5:04 PM  (in 3d 19h 19m 27s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 32m 15s and 14d 0h 34m 49s




Latest Block:   886806  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   101.0092%  (1783 / 1765.19 expected, 17.81 ahead

Previous Difficulty:   114167270716407.6                            
Current Difficulty:   110568428300952.7                            
Next Difficulty:   between 111670587317823 and 111685659688941
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.9968% and +1.0104%
Previous Retarget:   February 23, 2025 at 3:29 PM  (-3.1523%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 1:07 PM  (in 1d 14h 26m 43s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 1:10 PM  (in 1d 14h 29m 24s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 20h 38m 34s and 13d 20h 41m 16s

we shifted to positive



Latest Block:   886864  (a few seconds ago)
Current Pace:   100.5433%  (1841 / 1831.05 expected, 9.95 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   114167270716407.6                           
Current Difficulty:   110568428300952.7                           
Next Difficulty:   between 111165899577902 and 111170460527064
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.5404% and +0.5445%
Previous Retarget:   February 23, 2025 at 3:29 PM  (-3.1523%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 2:40 PM  (in 1d 5h 0m 32s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 2:41 PM  (in 1d 5h 1m 21s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 22h 11m 3s and 13d 22h 11m 53s

[philipma1957]

unfortunately trump has tried to switch sides over the Ukraine and become pro Russia .

Quite frankly I think this has scared the shit out of a lot of people.

So retreat to gold is big.  I think we need to step back and not do 1 day or 1 week or even 2 week pictures.

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   885295  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   95.3313%  (272 / 285.32 expected, 13.32 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   114167270716407.6                            
Current Difficulty:   110568428300952.7                            
Next Difficulty:   between 105414338887400 and 109224585840431
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.6614% and -1.2154%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 3:29 PM  (-3.1523%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 9, 2025 at 8:37 PM  (in 12d 4h 35m 14s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 10, 2025 at 8:56 AM  (in 12d 16h 54m 5s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 8m 26s and 14d 16h 27m 18s


a second drop so far 114 to 110 to maybe 107

go back and look at 2021 the double top was April 2021 then nov 2021

trump's moves may be making a double top

so we ARE SEEING THE DIFF DROP.

TREND IS NEW we will need at least 20 days in this direction to know .

if it is true diff will go under 100t maybe to 80t

and price will drop as low as 66k

All very early so be steady folks



Latest Block:   886165  (6 minutes ago)


Current Pace:   100.8287%  (1142 / 1132.61 expected, 9.39 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   114167270716407.6                            
Current Difficulty:   110568428300952.7                            
Next Difficulty:   between 111313027862497 and 111486797541562
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.6734% and +0.8306%
Previous Retarget:   February 23, 2025 at 3:29 PM  (-3.1523%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 1:43 PM  (in 6d 0h 28m 10s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 2:14 PM  (in 6d 0h 59m 18s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 21h 14m 18s and 13d 21h 45m 27s


still moving up a bit



Slipped to just a bit negative


Latest Block:   886492  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.8275%  (1469 / 1471.54 expected, 2.54 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   114167270716407.6                            
Current Difficulty:   110568428300952.7                            
Next Difficulty:   between 110379357253254 and 110393254540327
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.1710% and -0.1584%
Previous Retarget:   February 23, 2025 at 3:29 PM  (-3.1523%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 5:01 PM  (in 3d 19h 16m 53s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 5:04 PM  (in 3d 19h 19m 27s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 32m 15s and 14d 0h 34m 49s




Latest Block:   886806  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   101.0092%  (1783 / 1765.19 expected, 17.81 ahead

Previous Difficulty:   114167270716407.6                            
Current Difficulty:   110568428300952.7                            
Next Difficulty:   between 111670587317823 and 111685659688941
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.9968% and +1.0104%
Previous Retarget:   February 23, 2025 at 3:29 PM  (-3.1523%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 1:07 PM  (in 1d 14h 26m 43s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 1:10 PM  (in 1d 14h 29m 24s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 20h 38m 34s and 13d 20h 41m 16s

we shifted to positive



Latest Block:   886864  (a few seconds ago)
Current Pace:   100.5433%  (1841 / 1831.05 expected, 9.95 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   114167270716407.6                            
Current Difficulty:   110568428300952.7                            
Next Difficulty:   between 111165899577902 and 111170460527064
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.5404% and +0.5445%
Previous Retarget:   February 23, 2025 at 3:29 PM  (-3.1523%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 2:40 PM  (in 1d 5h 0m 32s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 2:41 PM  (in 1d 5h 1m 21s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 22h 11m 3s and 13d 22h 11m 53s



BTC

Latest Block:   887540  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.5167%  (501 / 483.98 expected, 17.02 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   110568428300952.7                           
Current Difficulty:   112149504190349.3                           
Next Difficulty:   between 113966240398801 and 116412968443070
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.6199% and +3.8016%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 11:45 AM  (+1.4300%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 23, 2025 at 12:20 AM  (in 10d 3h 55m 19s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 23, 2025 at 6:47 AM  (in 10d 10h 22m 5s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 12h 35m 7s and 13d 19h 1m 53s


We are up 3%
We are at 4.5 cents a th

An s21 does:
200 x 4.5 cents
9 dollars to earn
85 kwatts x 10 cents
8.50 to burn if your power is 10 cents


You net 50 cents a day about 6000 days to break even.

But we grow as the big miners are grinding away.

[philipma1957]

so we are still growing hash rate but we are yet to get to the 114.16 we were from feb 9 to feb 23

still 113.76 is nothing to sneeze at

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   889283  (5 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   108.0913%  (228 / 210.93 expected, 17.07 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   112149504190349.3                           
Current Difficulty:   113757508810854                             
Next Difficulty:   between 115623999876970 and 123066983658294
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.6408% and +8.1836%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 7:13 AM  (+1.4338%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   April 5, 2025 at 6:04 AM  (in 11d 11h 41m 34s)
Next Retarget (latest):   April 6, 2025 at 1:51 AM  (in 12d 7h 28m 37s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 22h 50m 54s and 13d 18h 37m 57s

[joker_josue]

so we are still growing hash rate but we are yet to get to the 114.16 we were from feb 9 to feb 23

still 113.76 is nothing to sneeze at

Theoretically, given that the value of bitcoin is lower, we should expect to see a decline in difficulty, with the machines being shut down. Or am I wrong in this reasoning?

Well, the numbers prove that I am. 

[philipma1957]

so we are still growing hash rate but we are yet to get to the 114.16 we were from feb 9 to feb 23

still 113.76 is nothing to sneeze at

Theoretically, given that the value of bitcoin is lower, we should expect to see a decline in difficulty, with the machines being shut down. Or am I wrong in this reasoning?

Well, the numbers prove that I am. 

good old usa tax laws and really big investment. marathon has over 300 containers with 300 units in each one.

so 300 x 270 =  81,000 th in each container x 300 = 24,300,000 th that is 24,300 ph or 24.3eh about 3% of the network in just 1 location.

So if they simply switched from s21 to s21xp

they went from 18 eh to 24.3 eh a 6.3 eh gain which is just a bit under 1% gain for the network.

A lot of big companies are simply switching from s21 to s21xp


so 200 to 270 means a 14% increase in hashrate.

these companies are not paying 7100 a machine they get better prices

and they get around a 33% tax break for the upgrade

[joker_josue]

A lot of big companies are simply switching from s21 to s21xp

So, everything must be summing up, the hardware upgrade!?
Okay, that makes sense.

This means that soon the used market will be flooded with S21. Do you think they will be sold at what price?

[philipma1957]

A lot of big companies are simply switching from s21 to s21xp

So, everything must be summing up, the hardware upgrade!?
Okay, that makes sense.

This means that soon the used market will be flooded with S21. Do you think they will be sold at what price?

3k at current coin prices.

Of course all bets are off if we spike to 200k

[mikeywith]

Theoretically, given that the value of bitcoin is lower, we should expect to see a decline in difficulty, with the machines being shut down. Or am I wrong in this reasoning?

Well, the numbers prove that I am. 

This used to be the case long before the CCP banned Bitcoin mining in China, you were able to see a direct correlation between BTC price and mining hashrate/difficulty as well as gear prices sometimes, but in the past couple of years since the U.S became the largest mining hub in the world, everything changed, there is nothing 'rational' happening anymore, it has to do with many things that are vastly different in the U.S, Tax laws as phill mentioned, the type of money used (investors money which is a somehow different mindset in China), and many other variables that makes mining unpredictable.

[philipma1957]

Theoretically, given that the value of bitcoin is lower, we should expect to see a decline in difficulty, with the machines being shut down. Or am I wrong in this reasoning?

Well, the numbers prove that I am. 

This used to be the case long before the CCP banned Bitcoin mining in China, you were able to see a direct correlation between BTC price and mining hashrate/difficulty as well as gear prices sometimes, but in the past couple of years since the U.S became the largest mining hub in the world, everything changed, there is nothing 'rational' happening anymore, it has to do with many things that are vastly different in the U.S, Tax laws as phill mentioned, the type of money used (investors money which is a somehow different mindset in China), and many other variables that makes mining unpredictable.

OPM rules in the USA

OPM is short for

Other Peoples Money

There are so many angles in money in the USA it is really hard to track them all.

[mikeywith]

OPM rules in the USA

OPM is short for

Other Peoples Money

There are so many angles in money in the USA it is really hard to track them all.

Speaking of U.S money, did the new tariff took place already? what is it now 54% on Chinese goods? does that really mean U.S large players will pay $1540 for a 1k gear shipped from Shenzen? or do these guys get some exceptions here and there?

[philipma1957]

OPM rules in the USA

OPM is short for

Other Peoples Money

There are so many angles in money in the USA it is really hard to track them all.

Speaking of U.S money, did the new tariff took place already? what is it now 54% on Chinese goods? does that really mean U.S large players will pay $1540 for a 1k gear shipped from Shenzen? or do these guys get some exceptions here and there?

well I have been buying from a usa based seller.

altairtech.io


https://altairtech.io/product/bitmain-antminer-s21-xp/. went from 7200 to 8000

I rounded numbers

[joker_josue]

well I have been buying from a usa based seller.

altairtech.io


https://altairtech.io/product/bitmain-antminer-s21-xp/. went from 7200 to 8000

I rounded numbers

Was this increase made right after the announcements?

Do they ever have units in stock? (Pretty sure they stock some units.)

So, this already seems like a lot of traders are taking advantage of it. The increase should only be felt in the next batches of equipment arriving. The tariffs may be inadequate, but it is shameful that traders start taking advantage of them before they are even affected.

[philipma1957]

well I have been buying from a usa based seller.

altairtech.io


https://altairtech.io/product/bitmain-antminer-s21-xp/. went from 7200 to 8000

I rounded numbers

Was this increase made right after the announcements?

Do they ever have units in stock? (Pretty sure they stock some units.)

So, this already seems like a lot of traders are taking advantage of it. The increase should only be felt in the next batches of equipment arriving. The tariffs may be inadequate, but it is shameful that traders start taking advantage of them before they are even affected.

Well his replacement pieces will cost him more.

Ie say a 7200 unit cost him 6000

It will cost him 6700 now

He does not mark up much on them.

So if he sells them at 7200 he won't easily buy replacements.

Also back in the day a lot of bitmain secondary sellers are contracted to buy 10 pieces a month .

I DO NOT KNOW IF HE HAS A CONTRACT LIKE THAT. But if he does 10 x 6200 is 62000 now it is 10 x 6700 or 67000

So he is pretty much forced on the high-end gear to raise prices.

These unit are sold as a commodity so markups are always low.

The trader seller altairtech.io  is not gaining  with these tariffs.

[joker_josue]

The trader seller altairtech.io  is not gaining  with these tariffs.

I think many will not benefit from these tariffs. If anyone comes out on top.

Perhaps this will motivate the domestic industry to start developing miners. But it will be complicated. Or do you think it is feasible to have ASICs produced in the USA?

[philipma1957]

The trader seller altairtech.io  is not gaining  with these tariffs.

I think many will not benefit from these tariffs. If anyone comes out on top.

Perhaps this will motivate the domestic industry to start developing miners. But it will be complicated. Or do you think it is feasible to have ASICs produced in the USA?

Who knows supposedly Joe Biden did a chip plant infrastructure bill, but with Trump and Musk playing undo Bidens work maybe the plant does not get built

[NotFuzzyWarm]

AFAIK the Chips Act so far remains untouched by Trumpolini and if he has even 1/2 a brain it will remain so. He wants to 'bring production back into the US' and that is certainly one way to do that. The plants in Arizona that TSMC is building are well under construction and should be producing their bleeding-edge 3nm and smaller chips in a couple more years

As for

do you think it is feasible to have ASICs produced in the USA?

With the added cost from tariffs - yes. The main problem is that in the US many many PCB and assembly houses were shut down because of those operations being moved to other countries eg - China. Due to the high powers involved it takes certain company skills & experience to reliably stuff the very thick hashboards and I'm not sure many places in the US could handle the needed increased production volumes anymore and it would take a few years to rebuild that capacity.

For complex non-consumer (commodity) items like miners and other industrial gear the standard minimum markup in the US on things built here is at least 100% and given the historic prices of miners vs cost to make them I think it could work.

[joker_josue]

As for

do you think it is feasible to have ASICs produced in the USA?

With the added cost from tariffs - yes. The main problem is that in the US many many PCB and assembly houses were shut down because of those operations being moved to other countries eg - China. Due to the high powers involved it takes certain company skills & experience to reliably stuff the very thick hashboards and I'm not sure many places in the US could handle the needed increased production volumes anymore and it would take a few years to rebuild that capacity.

In fact, it is not enough to just have a factory, you need minimally trained personnel to assemble the boards.

Are US citizens available to do this type of work? Is the production/labor cost worth it, even with the fees? I don't know the labor reality in the US, but I don't think anyone would want to do that kind of work for less than $100k/year. And maybe I'm saying a very low average value. Perhaps this value is the cost of all labor in a factory in China.

[philipma1957]

As for

do you think it is feasible to have ASICs produced in the USA?

With the added cost from tariffs - yes. The main problem is that in the US many many PCB and assembly houses were shut down because of those operations being moved to other countries eg - China. Due to the high powers involved it takes certain company skills & experience to reliably stuff the very thick hashboards and I'm not sure many places in the US could handle the needed increased production volumes anymore and it would take a few years to rebuild that capacity.

In fact, it is not enough to just have a factory, you need minimally trained personnel to assemble the boards.

Are US citizens available to do this type of work? Is the production/labor cost worth it, even with the fees? I don't know the labor reality in the US, but I don't think anyone would want to do that kind of work for less than $100k/year. And maybe I'm saying a very low average value. Perhaps this value is the cost of all labor in a factory in China.

or they could redesign miner boards like Canaan tries to do

look at what this 2 board modded t21 does

the t21 is rated to do 19 watts my mods do under 18




So by making the gear less dense it is more efficient.

more efficient gear demands a higher price.

the s21 is 1000 more than the t21

yet my less dense t21s equal the s21

this would apply to my s21xp's

If I did the same two board builds I would get them under 12 watts maybe as low as 11.5 watts a th.

So American companies could build less dense miners and they would be more efficient so they could get premium prices.

how about a s21xp doing 180 th and only 2000 watts


my testing clearly shows bitmain makes the gear too dense and pushes it too hard.