2025 Difficulty thread. Planning to make 2025 the last one I do.

[TheYankeesWin!]

We went down 7% then we went up 7%.
So we broke even in difficulty over last 2 periods of adjustment.

[alh]

We went down 7% then we went up 7%.
So we broke even in difficulty over last 2 periods of adjustment.

Minor quibble: A 7% loss followed by a 7% gain is a bit short of "back to even". The more extreme example of a 50% loss requires a 100% gain to "get back to even".

[philipma1957]

Correct

Coinwarz

https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/difficulty-chart

last four levels of Diff

126.9823
126.4114
116.9585
126.2713 current jump

and 126.4114 is not exactly 126.2713

so we did not exactly break even

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   905945  (13 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.2546%  (762 / 760.07 expected, 1.93 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   116958512019762.1                            
Current Difficulty:   126271255279307                              
Next Difficulty:   between 126529990757240 and 126693822961964
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.2049% and +0.3347%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 12:36 AM  (+7.9624%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   July 25, 2025 at 11:45 PM  (in 8d 16h 28m 9s)
Next Retarget (latest):   July 26, 2025 at 12:05 AM  (in 8d 16h 47m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 23h 8m 48s and 13d 23h 28m 36s

although we are on track to match the 126.4114



still off pace

Latest Block:   906461  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.9353%  (1278 / 1291.75 expected, 13.75 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   116958512019762.1                            
Current Difficulty:   126271255279307                              
Next Difficulty:   between 124985605227413 and 125156371817630
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.0182% and -0.8829%
Previous Retarget:   July 12, 2025 at 12:36 AM  (+7.9624%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 3:44 AM  (in 5d 3h 50m 20s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 4:13 AM  (in 5d 4h 19m 25s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 3h 7m 52s and 14d 3h 36m 56s




Latest Block:   906827  (9 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.5581%  (1644 / 1634.88 expected, 9.12 ahead)


Previous Difficulty:   116958512019762.1                            
Current Difficulty:   126271255279307                              
Next Difficulty:   between 126997320221852 and 127023065838874
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.5750% and +0.5954%
Previous Retarget:   July 12, 2025 at 12:36 AM  (+7.9624%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 10:44 PM  (in 2d 13h 39m 21s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 10:48 PM  (in 2d 13h 43m 9s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 22h 8m 7s and 13d 22h 11m 55s


looks close to even






Latest Block:   906965  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.0830%  (1782 / 1780.52 expected, 1.48 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   116958512019762.1                            
Current Difficulty:   126271255279307                              
Next Difficulty:   between 126417136683788 and 126419131255873
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.1155% and +0.1171%
Previous Retarget:   July 12, 2025 at 12:36 AM  (+7.9624%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 12:19 AM  (in 1d 14h 58m 3s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 12:20 AM  (in 1d 14h 58m 17s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 23h 43m 16s and 13d 23h 43m 30s



still super flat 0% or so

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   908485  (17 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.2311%  (1286 / 1295.96 expected, 9.96 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   126271255279307                              
Current Difficulty:   127620086886391.8                            
Next Difficulty:   between 126705941777849 and 126825056607319
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.7163% and -0.6230%
Previous Retarget:   July 25, 2025 at 9:09 PM  (+1.0682%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 11:25 PM  (in 5d 2h 16m 4s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 11:45 PM  (in 5d 2h 36m 33s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 15m 43s and 14d 2h 36m 12s

Latest Block:   908860  (18 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.9277%  (1661 / 1645.73 expected, 15.27 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   126271255279307                              
Current Difficulty:   127620086886391.8                            
Next Difficulty:   between 128819099256003 and 128857840271040
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.9395% and +0.9699%
Previous Retarget:   July 25, 2025 at 9:09 PM  (+1.0682%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 6:04 PM  (in 2d 10h 37m 22s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 6:10 PM  (in 2d 10h 43m 6s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 20h 54m 41s and 13d 21h 0m 25s


pretty much sideways



Latest Block:   909569  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   90.1975%  (354 / 392.47 expected, 38.47 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   127620086886391.8                            
Current Difficulty:   129435235580344.8                            
Next Difficulty:   between 117323258013113 and 125291551270168
Next Difficulty Change:   between -9.3576% and -3.2014%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 4:33 PM  (+1.4223%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 23, 2025 at 4:15 AM  (in 11d 18h 17m 9s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 24, 2025 at 5:04 AM  (in 12d 19h 6m 14s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 11h 41m 53s and 15d 12h 30m 57s




we have been fairly steady for the summer.

On may 31 we opened a new diff at 126.98

Here we are on August 11 and the diff is 129.43. which is under 2% for 71 days.

Price has been in the 104-123k range at the moment we could drop to 125.29 which

would mean a decent drop but it is early and likely will fill in a bit

it would be funny for it to drop back to 127 which would be very close to perfectly flat for around 85 days.



So we are a bit below 0%

Latest Block:   909792  (45 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   92.5270%  (577 / 623.60 expected, 46.6 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   127620086886391.8                            
Current Difficulty:   129435235580344.8                            
Next Difficulty:   between 120133676437227 and 124699383810736
Next Difficulty Change:   between -7.1863% and -3.6589%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 4:33 PM  (+1.4223%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 23, 2025 at 5:52 AM  (in 10d 5h 22m 38s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 23, 2025 at 7:42 PM  (in 10d 19h 12m 13s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 13h 18m 39s and 15d 3h 8m 14s



We can make it up and get to 0% easy easy



Very close to 0%

Latest Block:   910508  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.3976%  (1293 / 1300.84 expected, 7.84 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   127620086886391.8                            
Current Difficulty:   129435235580344.8                            
Next Difficulty:   between 128846321363056 and 128921764771545
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.4550% and -0.3967%
Previous Retarget:   August 8, 2025 at 4:33 PM  (+1.4223%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 6:20 PM  (in 5d 0h 58m 6s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 6:36 PM  (in 5d 1h 13m 49s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 46m 28s and 14d 2h 2m 11s



still very close to net -1%

Latest Block:   911043  (a minute ago)

Current Pace:   99.1646%  (1828 / 1843.40 expected, 15.4 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   127620086886391.8                           
Current Difficulty:   129435235580344.8                           
Next Difficulty:   between 128488241510187 and 128496417124634
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.7316% and -0.7253%
Previous Retarget:   August 8, 2025 at 4:33 PM  (+1.4223%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 7:22 PM  (in 1d 7h 34m 21s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 7:23 PM  (in 1d 7h 35m 50s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 48m 21s and 14d 2h 49m 49s

right now we are at an all time high number but we may slip a notch by Friday the 22nd


























https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/address/bc1qh0al85au8285khzsqlenvg9f78uzxlmrlp5ma4

[philipma1957]

So in 6 or 7 hours we hit a new jump and will be really close to 0%

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   911187  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.8304%  (1972 / 1975.35 expected, 3.35 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   127620086886391.8                            
Current Difficulty:   129435235580344.8                            
Next Difficulty:   between 129341839337964 and 129341883794986
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.0722% and -0.0721%
Previous Retarget:   August 8, 2025 at 4:33 PM  (+1.4223%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 5:08 PM  (in 0d 7h 20m 43s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 5:08 PM  (in 0d 7h 20m 44s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 34m 14s and 14d 0h 34m 15s

A very basic summer pattern  hash gains are a bit less due to  the heat.


May 31 diff was 126.9

and new diff will soon be 129.5 and that will last till September 5

So around ninety days and 126.9 to 129.5 only   129.5/126.9=1.0205  a 2 percent gain.

based on that  in 1 year we will be near a difficulty of 140-145 that is my guess for sept of 2026.




we went up 0.2% so basically very flat diff may 31 to sept 5

that is 97 days and a 2% jump in diff

[joker_josue]

By chance I didn't follow the difficulty data for some time.

But I remember reading something a few weeks ago, about the hash breaking a record. Is it true?

What do you think of hash development/difficulte?

[philipma1957]

By chance I didn't follow the difficulty data for some time.

But I remember reading something a few weeks ago, about the hash breaking a record. Is it true?

What do you think of hash development/difficulte?

Well miners believe in BTC

And we may get another record jump soon.

Latest Block:   913977  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   106.8684%  (730 / 683.08 expected, 46.92 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   129699156960680.9                            
Current Difficulty:   136039872848261.3                            
Next Difficulty:   between 141727131566656 and 145912277559986
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.1806% and +7.2570%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 1:08 AM  (+4.8888%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   September 18, 2025 at 3:32 AM  (in 8d 8h 33m 29s)
Next Retarget (latest):   September 18, 2025 at 12:19 PM  (in 8d 17h 20m 43s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 2h 24m 19s and 13d 11h 11m 33s

If we continue at this pace we will go over a diff of 143t

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   914301  (21 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   107.6961%  (1054 / 978.68 expected, 75.32 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   129699156960680.9                           
Current Difficulty:   136039872848261.3                           
Next Difficulty:   between 144263254627842 and 146881044775181
Next Difficulty Change:   between +6.0448% and +7.9691%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 1:08 AM  (+4.8888%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   September 18, 2025 at 1:07 AM  (in 6d 4h 52m 32s)
Next Retarget (latest):   September 18, 2025 at 6:35 AM  (in 6d 10h 20m 35s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 23h 59m 20s and 13d 5h 27m 23s

Diff goes a bit higher maybe 144 or 145t

[philipma1957]

So we may back off a bit from 150t
Still early and hard to tell.

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator



Latest Block:   918223  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   94.3847%  (944 / 1000.16 expected, 56.16 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   142342602928674.9                            
Current Difficulty:   150839487445890.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 142445084917316 and 144722378111201
Next Difficulty Change:   between -5.5651% and -4.0554%
Previous Retarget:   October 1, 2025 at 3:51 PM  (+5.9693%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 16, 2025 at 6:12 AM  (in 7d 15h 38m 38s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 16, 2025 at 11:51 AM  (in 7d 21h 17m 46s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 14h 20m 15s and 14d 19h 59m 23s

.
.
.
Latest Block:   918321  (32 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   92.7075%  (1042 / 1123.97 expected, 81.97 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   142342602928674.9                            
Current Difficulty:   150839487445890.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 139905679565837 and 142313586020578
Next Difficulty Change:   between -7.2486% and -5.6523%
Previous Retarget:   October 1, 2025 at 3:51 PM  (+5.9693%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 16, 2025 at 12:07 PM  (in 7d 0h 56m 0s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 16, 2025 at 6:17 PM  (in 7d 7h 6m 9s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 20h 15m 39s and 15d 2h 25m 48s




Still dropping but there is a lot of time left
------‐-------------------------------------------------‐--------------

Latest Block:   918502  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   92.3172%  (1223 / 1324.78 expected, 101.78 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   142342602928674.9                            
Current Difficulty:   150839487445890.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 139306675269558 and 140974405348056
Next Difficulty Change:   between -7.6458% and -6.5401%
Previous Retarget:   October 1, 2025 at 3:51 PM  (+5.9693%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 3:30 PM  (in 5d 18h 50m 21s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 7:49 PM  (in 5d 23h 9m 56s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 23h 38m 9s and 15d 3h 57m 45s



‐-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Latest Block:   919219  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.0393%  (1940 / 1999.19 expected, 59.19 behind)


Previous Difficulty:   142342602928674.9                            
Current Difficulty:   150839487445890.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 146412532698847 and 146418639763694
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.9349% and -2.9308%
Previous Retarget:   October 1, 2025 at 3:51 PM  (+5.9693%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 2:06 AM  (in 0d 13h 2m 18s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 2:06 AM  (in 0d 13h 3m 11s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 10h 14m 12s and 14d 10h 15m 5s



So a 2-3% drop lining up in around 13hours

[joker_josue]

What happened, did everyone decide to turn off all the machines at the same time?
The difficulty adjustment occurred, and the network still has less hash than the adjustment expected?

Well... but, maybe it was just an "initial scare", and the guys turned on their machines again.
It's the hash rollercoaster.

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   919298  (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   48.6166%  (3 / 6.17 expected, 3.17 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   150839487445890.5                            
Current Difficulty:   146716052770107.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 146864447777511 and 222214373933430
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.1011% and +51.4588%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 6:23 AM  (-2.7337%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 30, 2025 at 6:27 AM  (in 14d 0h 1m 39s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 14, 2025 at 12:31 AM  (in 28d 18h 5m 38s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 3m 22s and 28d 19h 7m 21s

[philipma1957]

Latest Block:   919342  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.7135%  (47 / 48.60 expected, 1.6 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   150839487445890.5                            
Current Difficulty:   146716052770107.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 147089995665020 and 155282474803222
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.2549% and +5.8388%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 1:23 AM  (-2.7337%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 30, 2025 at 1:55 AM  (in 13d 16h 25m 35s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 30, 2025 at 12:48 PM  (in 14d 3h 19m 6s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 31m 34s and 14d 11h 25m 4s



3 blocks is tiny sample size

even now 47 blocks made is small sample.


500 is better
1000 is even better.
1500 also is better.








---------------------
------------------------------

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   921911  (5 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   101.0001%  (600 / 594.06 expected, 5.94 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   146716052770107.5                           
Current Difficulty:   155973032196071.9                           
Next Difficulty:   between 156833561722312 and 157680638171160
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.5517% and +1.0948%
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 6:09 AM  (+6.3095%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 12, 2025 at 1:49 AM  (in 9d 17h 39m 47s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 12, 2025 at 3:28 AM  (in 9d 19h 18m 16s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 20h 40m 22s and 13d 22h 18m 51s

so we are at 155.9 diff and we may go up yet again to 157.1 diff

the last year the diff went up up up and away

we are now at the lowest earning per th ever around 4.5 cents a th.

[joker_josue]

3 blocks is tiny sample size

even now 47 blocks made is small sample.


500 is better
1000 is even better.
1500 also is better.

It makes sense. It really does seem like things have returned to normal. It was just the impact of the difficulty change. Then everything is readjusted and continues to function normally.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator
Latest Block:   919535  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   111.5050%  (240 / 215.24 expected, 24.76 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   150839487445890.5                            
Current Difficulty:   146716052770107.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 150789396373281 and 166843622468364
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.7763% and +13.7187%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 1:23 AM  (-2.7337%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 28, 2025 at 2:43 PM  (in 11d 1h 27m 32s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 29, 2025 at 5:38 PM  (in 12d 4h 21m 51s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 13h 19m 54s and 13d 16h 14m 13s

Latest Block:   920726  (25 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   106.4905%  (1431 / 1343.78 expected, 87.22 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   150839487445890.5                            
Current Difficulty:   146716052770107.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 155831923921234 and 156727282280671
Next Difficulty Change:   between +6.2133% and +6.8235%
Previous Retarget:   October 16, 2025 at 1:23 AM  (-2.7337%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 4:55 AM  (in 3d 19h 33m 26s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 6:38 AM  (in 3d 21h 16m 54s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 3h 31m 16s and 13d 5h 14m 44s
and

Looks like we will hit 156t this will be the highest difficulty we ever had.

we got to 155.9k and we are doing okay today

Latest Block:   921551  (a minute ago)

Current Pace:   102.7312%  (240 / 233.62 expected, 6.38 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   146716052770107.5                            
Current Difficulty:   155973032196071.9                            
Next Difficulty:   between 156989138912680 and 160615607365404
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.6515% and +2.9765%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 6:09 AM  (+6.3095%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 11, 2025 at 8:13 PM  (in 12d 0h 7m 50s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 12, 2025 at 3:09 AM  (in 12d 7h 3m 47s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 15h 4m 2s and 13d 21h 59m 59s

maybe we go higher but it is very early now.














---------------------
------------------------------

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   921911  (5 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   101.0001%  (600 / 594.06 expected, 5.94 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   146716052770107.5                            
Current Difficulty:   155973032196071.9                            
Next Difficulty:   between 156833561722312 and 157680638171160
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.5517% and +1.0948%
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 6:09 AM  (+6.3095%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 12, 2025 at 1:49 AM  (in 9d 17h 39m 47s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 12, 2025 at 3:28 AM  (in 9d 19h 18m 16s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 20h 40m 22s and 13d 22h 18m 51s

so we are at 155.9 diff and we may go up yet again to 157.1 diff

the last year the diff went up up up and away

we are now at the lowest earning per th ever around 4.5 cents a th.

[alh]

Just so that I am clear:

"we are now at the lowest earning per th ever around 4.5 cents a th."

That's a 1 Th miner running steady for a full 24 hours, right? That means even with 5 cent power you need to have a really efficient miner to just break even, doesn't it? And/or electricity cost well below 5 cents per KWh.

[philipma1957]

Just so that I am clear:

"we are now at the lowest earning per th ever around 4.5 cents a th."

That's a 1 Th miner running steady for a full 24 hours, right? That means even with 5 cent power you need to have a really efficient miner to just break even, doesn't it? And/or electricity cost well below 5 cents per KWh.

well a bitaxe is about 1 th so it earns about 4 cents as we are lower than 4.5 cents


it burns  15-20 watts an hour or 360 to 480 watts a day.

so lets say .36 kwatts at best to .5 kwatts at worse.

if you have 10 cent power your bitaxe burns 3.6 to 5.0 cents and earns 4 cents

if you have a s21xp air cooled it earns 0.04x270= $10.80

it burns about 3600x24=86,400  87 kwatts if you have 10 cent power it burns $8.70

you net $2.10 that means 2600 days to paying it off

if you have 5 cent power it burns $4.35 and you net $6.45 payoff is about 900 days.

[joker_josue]

well a bitaxe is about 1 th so it earns about 4 cents as we are lower than 4.5 cents


it burns  15-20 watts an hour or 360 to 480 watts a day.

so lets say .36 kwatts at best to .5 kwatts at worse.

if you have 10 cent power your bitaxe burns 3.6 to 5.0 cents and earns 4 cents

if you have a s21xp air cooled it earns 0.04x270= $10.80

it burns about 3600x24=86,400  87 kwatts if you have 10 cent power it burns $8.70

you net $2.10 that means 2600 days to paying it off

if you have 5 cent power it burns $4.35 and you net $6.45 payoff is about 900 days.

The problem is that, at the end of the 900 days, the equipment was no longer performing as well as in the first few days, probably due to network difficulties. Or, in the worst-case scenario, which is not uncommon, the wear and tear on the equipment began to compromise its performance.

[philipma1957]

well a bitaxe is about 1 th so it earns about 4 cents as we are lower than 4.5 cents


it burns  15-20 watts an hour or 360 to 480 watts a day.

so lets say .36 kwatts at best to .5 kwatts at worse.

if you have 10 cent power your bitaxe burns 3.6 to 5.0 cents and earns 4 cents

if you have a s21xp air cooled it earns 0.04x270= $10.80

it burns about 3600x24=86,400  87 kwatts if you have 10 cent power it burns $8.70

you net $2.10 that means 2600 days to paying it off

if you have 5 cent power it burns $4.35 and you net $6.45 payoff is about 900 days.

The problem is that, at the end of the 900 days, the equipment was no longer performing as well as in the first few days, probably due to network difficulties. Or, in the worst-case scenario, which is not uncommon, the wear and tear on the equipment began to compromise its performance.

gear wear and tear is complex. my t21 units had issues.

my s21xp are really really really good.

9 for 9 after 13 months.

but profits have declined due to weaker prices and more difficulty.

remember these units for USA buyers create tax breaks.

So 9 units at say 6200 mean 56000 deductible against btc earned.

one can argue my nine units cost 56000x0.67=37,520

and they were earning 1500 to 2500 last 13 months so 26000 profit all of which is covered by that 56000 purchase price.

but this is usa law.

For me to do well with this set of gear I need price rise to 150k

if we meander along at 95-105k they will not be a great buy.

but I have held all the btc earned from these.

say 0.36 btc

mining is hard not a way to riches at all.

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   923222  (23 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.6660%  (1911 / 1956.67 expected, 45.67 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   146716052770107.5                            
Current Difficulty:   155973032196071.9                            
Next Difficulty:   between 152375919278930 and 152385452630469
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.3062% and -2.3001%
Previous Retarget:   October 29, 2025 at 6:09 AM  (+6.3095%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 1:09 PM  (in 0d 17h 53m 47s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 1:11 PM  (in 0d 17h 55m 5s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 8h 0m 28s and 14d 8h 1m 47s

Small drop on the way.

Price sucks around 102k last I looked

and here is some news that may affect mining or not

huge bridge less than 1 year old collapses in China

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/major-chinese-bridge-collapses-river-023758479.html


This bridge is a link to a big power plant dam

The Hongqi Bridge is located near the Shuangjiangkou Hydropower Station in Sichuan, China, which is currently under construction. The bridge is part of the infrastructure built for the hydropower project, which is centered on the world's tallest dam, also called Shuangjiangkou.
The Shuangjiangkou Hydropower Station is situated on the Dadu River.



that is ai info

and the size of the power plant is


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuangjiangkou_Dam



more ai below

No, the Shuangjiangkou Hydropower Station is not fully operational, as it is still under construction, with the first unit expected to begin generating electricity by the end of 2025. While it completed its first water impoundment in May 2025, a bridge at the station site collapsed on November 11, 2025, causing a temporary closure of traffic on that section.
Construction status: The hydropower station is still under construction, with the goal of full operation by 2027. The first unit is projected to start generating electricity by the end of 2025.
Water impoundment: The project achieved a major milestone in May 2025 when it began filling the reservoir.
Recent incident: A bridge at the station, the Hongqi Bridge, collapsed on November 11, 2025, following the detection of cracks. This led to a temporary traffic control on that section of the bridge.
Operational goal: Once fully operational, the station will have an output of 2,000 megawatts, enough to generate 7.7 billion kWh of electricity annually.


so it never was running but it would have done as much as 5,274,000 s21xps a day 24/7/365

right now the network is

 1100eh
 1100000ph
 1100000000th this is 4,074,075 s21xps

so a project that had more than enough power to run all the sha-256 miners in the world and 1 million extra ones  is set back bigly

[joker_josue]

I don't think it will affect much, because in theory in China there is no mining

Now it can be a wake-up call to the market, existing capacity that has not yet been tapped.
If China opens its doors to mining, a lot can change.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   923351  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   110.8980%  (24 / 21.64 expected, 2.36 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   155973032196071.9                           
Current Difficulty:   152271405447597.4                           
Next Difficulty:   between 152709411926656 and 173269448622083
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.2876% and +13.7899%

Previous Retarget:   Today at 1:25 PM  (-2.3732%)

Next Retarget (earliest):   November 25, 2025 at 4:23 AM  (in 12d 11h 22m 27s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 26, 2025 at 12:38 PM  (in 13d 19h 36m 41s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 14h 58m 51s and 13d 23h 13m 6s

we dropped from 155.9 to 152.2

which does help miners a bit.

but we mostly just went sideways in price since dec 2024

and the diff went up a lot.

so mining is very tight at the moment.

[joker_josue]

so mining is very tight at the moment.

How do you change that?

Unfortunately, I see this path becoming increasingly difficult. Mining will become more and more restricted.

[philipma1957]

so mining is very tight at the moment.

How do you change that?

Unfortunately, I see this path becoming increasingly difficult. Mining will become more and more restricted.

Basically it has become a large commercial endeavor.

With a few people like me that scrounge a bit of profit and some hobbyists that mine at ck pool hoping to catch a block.

For home mining to work price would need to go to about 222k by years end and slowly rise from there.

I estimate that as a 1 in 10 chance at best.

[joker_josue]

Basically it has become a large commercial endeavor.

With a few people like me that scrounge a bit of profit and some hobbyists that mine at ck pool hoping to catch a block.

For home mining to work price would need to go to about 222k by years end and slowly rise from there.

I estimate that as a 1 in 10 chance at best.

Since we know this is practically impossible, it will increasingly become a cycle where mining will only be possible at an industrial level.

The problem, as you mentioned, is that in a few years it might be really difficult to maintain viable profit levels for that level of business, with the value of BTC not appreciating enough to keep pace with the reduction in block compensation or the increase in mining maintenance costs.

At this point, what could happen? We don't know. I, at least, have no idea. But why suffer in anticipation? Right now, this is working.