China or No China, Here's My Prediction for the Long-Term...

[vpitcher07]

 They will cash out if BTC goes up to $1000 level, if they have not cashed out yet. After cashing out, they will never come back. Once bitten, twice shy.

This is the only thing I agree with in OP's argument. We will see very very hard resistance in the $1,000 range if it ever reaches that again. Those who bought at 1k are going to be cashing in at once and we will see a crash back down again.

Don't assume things, it's dangerous.

IMO we will see the prices fall hard this/next month due to china, it will attract buyers, all of the weak hands will be gone...

I'm trying to be realistic and logical. I'm not assuming but I"m making a pretty educated guess as to what is going to happen. There are probably a lot of people who bought in the 1k range and are probably looking for a quick out. Trust me, I hope i'm wrong. But it makes a lot of sense for there to be a strong resistance at 1,000.

[passionsurf]

Too many people bought in during the China-induced bubble at the end of last year. They have seen the value of their bitcoins plummet. Some people have lost their life savings. They will cash out if BTC goes up to $1000 level, if they have not cashed out yet. After cashing out, they will never come back. Once bitten, twice shy.

Wait a minute here. For every one person that got screwed and "lost their life savings" there are probably 1000 people who have never even heard of bitcoin. Most people I talk to have never heard of bitcoin, in spite of all the press lately. There is still tons of potential buyers/investors out their. Bitcoin has only JUST begun.

[mgio]

Wait, weren't you the guy that said: "BTC will rise to $2000 by end of March 2014." ?

[Torque]

Wait, weren't you the guy that said: "BTC will rise to $2000 by end of March 2014." ?

Yeah, he was.  

Since my last prediction went so well , I am going to make another "most accurate" prediction ever:

BTC will rise to $2000 by end of March 2014.
….
Wow, censorship and negativity abound here today!!!

Do all specualtion have to be based on some tehcnical mumbo jumbo that explains nothing and predicts nothing?

Lighten up, folks!

Let's be positive, be merry and have fun. This is the end of 2013, let's await the arrival of 2014 with positive attitude and mental acuity. Let's get rid of this negative poisonous toxin you carry in you. Let IT go!!! Let us surround btc with positive energy and hope and pray that btc will rocket up!!!

….
I was wrong before but I believe I'm right this time. Let me explain:

Btc's fundamentals are strong (I have to throw in technical mumbo jumbo here, you know),
Rise in value in anticipation of overstock.com's adoption of bitcoins staring in July'2014,
Twinklevosses ETF will be approved, sooner than expected,
Wallstreet's flood gates will be opened soon afterwards or even before (insider info, you know),
China Syndrome has been effectlvely factored in already,
March'2014 marks the 6months time since the dramatic increase in hashrate and difficulty, which, some believe, causes dramatic effect on btc price (This is a tough one, there's a school of thought that says it has no, zero, nada, effect; and another school that says otherwise)

 

[zimmah]

Get over it. BTC price will never go up to $10000 or $5000. Not even $2000. Here's why.

Quoted for future reference.

You'll look stupid in less then 6 months.

[rohnearner]

Get over it. BTC price will never go up to $10000 or $5000. Not even $2000. Here's why.

Quoted for future reference.

You'll look stupid in less then 6 months.

I'm hoping for reverse trend in upcoming months too..! lets see if we can achieve some new heights..! 

[dyland]

Get over it. BTC price will never go up to $10000 or $5000. Not even $2000. Here's why.

Quoted for future reference.

You'll look stupid in less then 6 months.

I'm hoping for reverse trend in upcoming months too..! lets see if we can achieve some new heights..! 

This is going to sound prick-ish, but I mean it humorously:

"You can hope in one hand and shit in the other, and see which one fills up faster" 

[dyland]

Get over it. BTC price will never go up to $10000 or $5000. Not even $2000. Here's why.

Quoted for future reference.

You'll look stupid in less then 6 months.

I'm hoping for reverse trend in upcoming months too..! lets see if we can achieve some new heights..!  

This is going to sound prick-ish, but I mean it humorously:

"You can hope in one hand and shit in the other, and see which one fills up faster"  

Only time will tell, I 'm not concerned about this crash.!

Also unconcerned in the long-term.

[edok]

Question to all the longterm bears, why are you here? If you're down on BTC longterm then sell and go on your merry way. Why do you feel the need to create FUD unless you're trying to buy at a lower price?

[semaforo]

  Oh no! Bitcoin has failed!

   Tell that to anyone who has got hit by credit card fraud. Tell that to the people who lost their savings in the bail-in in Cyprus. Tell that to the Argentines whose national currency has devalued 50% in the last 4 years. Tell that to the Phillipino and African migrants whose family's whole income back home is $500 a month, reduced by 8% by western union fees and bad exchange rate. Tell that to the business owners who went out of business because of a 1% difference in margin- while their margin was changed by 2% because of Visa and Mastercard's fraud budget. Tell it to the gold bugs. Tell it to the people making their living on silk road and the dozens of silk road spinoffs. Tell it to the Iranians who are reaching markets with their products they never could before. Tell it to the people who realize that issuing a people's currency is the best way to control a people.

   While I think everyone is welcome in the forum, just put your money where your mouth is and sell your coins to someone who has a slight understanding of human nature and the global economy. Oh, you probably don't have any coins to sell do you? You're probably writing this out of the hope that bitcoin will fail to reduce the pain you feel at not having participated in the movement a couple years ago...


   As I understand it posts like these are a part of every capitulation. We just need to see prices stabilize to the point where all of the people on the sidelines decide they don't want to miss the boat again. There are hordes of people waiting to see if it's going to crash, and as understanding of bitcoin spreads along with smartphones, I think we will see in retrospect that we are not even in the steep part of the "s" curve yet.


  

[semaforo]

Question to all the longterm bears, why are you here? If you're down on BTC longterm then sell and go on your merry way. Why do you feel the need to create FUD unless you're trying to buy at a lower price?

   Maybe you hit the nail on the head right there... trying to drive down price so they can get more coins before the next rally.

[SportsBet]

Did you guys even watch the CoinSummit?

[y3804]

Did you guys even watch the CoinSummit?

Please explain what I've missed

[SportsBet]

Did you guys even watch the CoinSummit?

Please explain what I've missed

Check it out here -> http://www.youtube.com/user/coinsummit

Many things from Marc Andreesen making fun of old rich white guys (spoiler alert)
trough Chamath Palihapitiya admitting he has discussed it with Zuckerberg
to a large group of quality investors from Ribbit/Lightspeed/Andreesen Horowitz and the state of bitcoin analysis by CoinDesk where they mention 162mln VC funding so far, 75mil of which since the start of 2014.

Makes some of the pple in this thread look like emotional bag holders instead of reasonable men.

[Cassius]

 Oh no! Bitcoin has failed!

   Tell that to anyone who has got hit by credit card fraud. Tell that to the people who lost their savings in the bail-in in Cyprus. Tell that to the Argentines whose national currency has devalued 50% in the last 4 years. Tell that to the Phillipino and African migrants whose family's whole income back home is $500 a month, reduced by 8% by western union fees and bad exchange rate. Tell that to the business owners who went out of business because of a 1% difference in margin- while their margin was changed by 2% because of Visa and Mastercard's fraud budget. Tell it to the gold bugs. Tell it to the people making their living on silk road and the dozens of silk road spinoffs. Tell it to the Iranians who are reaching markets with their products they never could before. Tell it to the people who realize that issuing a people's currency is the best way to control a people.

   While I think everyone is welcome in the forum, just put your money where your mouth is and sell your coins to someone who has a slight understanding of human nature and the global economy. Oh, you probably don't have any coins to sell do you? You're probably writing this out of the hope that bitcoin will fail to reduce the pain you feel at not having participated in the movement a couple years ago...


   As I understand it posts like these are a part of every capitulation. We just need to see prices stabilize to the point where all of the people on the sidelines decide they don't want to miss the boat again. There are hordes of people waiting to see if it's going to crash, and as understanding of bitcoin spreads along with smartphones, I think we will see in retrospect that we are not even in the steep part of the "s" curve yet.


  

Dude. This. Except for the s-curve bit, which seems likely but I haven't figured for certain yet.

[rogerwilco]

Wait, weren't you the guy that said: "BTC will rise to $2000 by end of March 2014." ?

Yes. "If I post this maybe the opposite will happen" is the whole point of making the thread. People need to lighten up.

[chufchuf]

Get over it. BTC price will never go up to $10000 or $5000. Not even $2000. Here's why.

Institutional Investers are not coming. They are risk-averse as a group. They do not like volatility in their invesstment portfolio. They prize stability most of all. Bitcoin is a bit too volatile for their taste. They are not going to put their money in something that loses 60% of its value overnight.

Too many people bought in during the China-induced bubble at the end of last year. They have seen the value of their bitcoins plummet. Some people have lost their life savings. They will cash out if BTC goes up to $1000 level, if they have not cashed out yet. After cashing out, they will never come back. Once bitten, twice shy.

Bitcoin has failed as a currency. It is a store of value, a commodity like gold. How many people would like to use gold strictly as currency? After 4 and a half years, Satoshi Nakamoto's vision has been turned upside down; The BTC experiment is a failure. Without a strong government support, you can't have a secure, reliably and stable currency.

Bitcoin will continue its meandering ways like this forever or until its demise. There is no S-Curve. There is no magic ride to Million dollar trend line. This is it, folks.

Bitcoin is so superior to money in the bank only an idiot can't see this.

[jamesc760]

I used to be bullish, until very recently. MtGOX imploding and China banning changed my mind completely. If the original and the biggest btc exchange can fail, who else can you put your trust? I didn't put any money or btc into MtGOX myself but I know others who have. If China and India can ban bitcoins, thus removing half of the world's population from bitcoins, where and how could "To Da Moon" adoption and growth come from? The Western government can just as easily ban bitcoins and/or regulate it death. The US IRS announcement is an opening salvo.

The last bubble, and it WAS a bubble, in the late 2013, came solely from the China buying frenzy. With China and India effectively out of the game, there's no more fuel left for the btc rocket. The last few months, you can feel the oxygen getting sucked out of the rocket. Bitcoin is running on fumes, just look at the exchange's volume over the past few months. Nobody wants to buy. Not at $600, not at $500. I am not sure if $400-450 is attractive price. There seems to be a support at the level currently, but how long will it stand?

We need a new and trustable exchange in the US. I understand that NYC has started accepting applications for bitcoin exchanges; however, it will take months, if not years before new exchanges start working. We need new crop of buyers, in the scale of Chinese, but there's none to be found. Europeans and Americans are still trying to recover from the "Great Recession." India and Russia is out. Who's going to replace the Chinese buyers?

[bitcoinsrus]

I used to be bullish, until very recently. MtGOX imploding and China banning changed my mind completely. If the original and the biggest btc exchange can fail, who else can you put your trust? I didn't put any money or btc into MtGOX myself but I know others who have. If China and India can ban bitcoins, thus removing half of the world's population from bitcoins, where and how could "To Da Moon" adoption and growth come from? The Western government can just as easily ban bitcoins and/or regulate it death. The US IRS announcement is an opening salvo.

The last bubble, and it WAS a bubble, in the late 2013, came solely from the China buying frenzy. With China and India effectively out of the game, there's no more fuel left for the btc rocket. The last few months, you can feel the oxygen getting sucked out of the rocket. Bitcoin is running on fumes, just look at the exchange's volume over the past few months. Nobody wants to buy. Not at $600, not at $500. I am not sure if $400-450 is attractive price. There seems to be a support at the level currently, but how long will it stand?

We need a new and trustable exchange in the US. I understand that NYC has started accepting applications for bitcoin exchanges; however, it will take months, if not years before new exchanges start working. We need new crop of buyers, in the scale of Chinese, but there's none to be found. Europeans and Americans are still trying to recover from the "Great Recession." India and Russia is out. Who's going to replace the Chinese buyers?

If they even acknowledge a ban on it, won't people want to use it more in those areas?  Eventually some type of virtual currency might make it to those countries and some people would go into bitcoin?

[gentlemand]

I used to be bullish, until very recently. MtGOX imploding and China banning changed my mind completely. If the original and the biggest btc exchange can fail, who else can you put your trust? I didn't put any money or btc into MtGOX myself but I know others who have. If China and India can ban bitcoins, thus removing half of the world's population from bitcoins, where and how could "To Da Moon" adoption and growth come from? The Western government can just as easily ban bitcoins and/or regulate it death. The US IRS announcement is an opening salvo.

The last bubble, and it WAS a bubble, in the late 2013, came solely from the China buying frenzy. With China and India effectively out of the game, there's no more fuel left for the btc rocket. The last few months, you can feel the oxygen getting sucked out of the rocket. Bitcoin is running on fumes, just look at the exchange's volume over the past few months. Nobody wants to buy. Not at $600, not at $500. I am not sure if $400-450 is attractive price. There seems to be a support at the level currently, but how long will it stand?

We need a new and trustable exchange in the US. I understand that NYC has started accepting applications for bitcoin exchanges; however, it will take months, if not years before new exchanges start working. We need new crop of buyers, in the scale of Chinese, but there's none to be found. Europeans and Americans are still trying to recover from the "Great Recession." India and Russia is out. Who's going to replace the Chinese buyers?

Bitcoin got to a point where its market cap is billions and governments are paying attention around the world on the back of an infrastructure almost entirely run by children and scum and its user experience was like corrupted linux on pirated tranquilisers.

You're losing hope just as a tidal wave of reputable businesses, top notch brains and usable technologies are about to start pouring in? It's been sub amateur hour so far. The foot hasn't even reached the clutch to drop it yet.