China or No China, Here's My Prediction for the Long-Term...

[jamesc760]

Get over it. BTC price will never go up to $10000 or $5000. Not even $2000. Here's why.

Institutional Investers are not coming. They are risk-averse as a group. They do not like volatility in their invesstment portfolio. They prize stability most of all. Bitcoin is a bit too volatile for their taste. They are not going to put their money in something that loses 60% of its value overnight.

Too many people bought in during the China-induced bubble at the end of last year. They have seen the value of their bitcoins plummet. Some people have lost their life savings. They will cash out if BTC goes up to $1000 level, if they have not cashed out yet. After cashing out, they will never come back. Once bitten, twice shy.

Bitcoin has failed as a currency. It is a store of value, a commodity like gold. How many people would like to use gold strictly as currency? After 4 and a half years, Satoshi Nakamoto's vision has been turned upside down; The BTC experiment is a failure. Without a strong government support, you can't have a secure, reliably and stable currency.

Bitcoin will continue its meandering ways like this forever or until its demise. There is no S-Curve. There is no magic ride to Million dollar trend line. This is it, folks.

[Sawadekub]

Get over it. BTC price will never go up to $10000 or $5000. Not even $2000. Here's why.

Institutional Investers are not coming. They are risk-averse as a group. They do not like volatility in their invesstment portfolio. They prize stability most of all. Bitcoin is a bit too volatile for their taste. They are not going to put their money in something that loses 60% of its value overnight.

Too many people bought in during the China-induced bubble at the end of last year. They have seen the value of their bitcoins plummet. Some people have lost their life savings. They will cash out if BTC goes up to $1000 level, if they have not cashed out yet. After cashing out, they will never come back. Once bitten, twice shy.

Bitcoin has failed as a currency. It is a store of value, a commodity like gold. How many people would like to use gold strictly as currency? After 4 and a half years, Satoshi Nakamoto's vision has been turned upside down; The BTC experiment is a failure. Without a strong government support, you can't have a secure, reliably and stable currency.

Bitcoin will continue its meandering ways like this forever or until its demise. There is no S-Curve. There is no magic ride to Million dollar trend line. This is it, folks.

everything has a volatility when they first started, just like banks in the olden days.. last time no one will keep their money in their bank.. because they are scared..
gold and silver is volatile too
last time police wear short pants, last time guys have long hair, by the way investors will come once there is much support for decentralized crypto currency because there are only limited amount of them..

its just like abalone and shark fins, just taste normal but they are expensive why? limited and rare..
its not if bitcoin will get support from goverment.. is only when will they get supported.. and i think soon,

remember not long ago California just pass the bill for bitcoin to be legalize tender? remember winklevoss said their SEC process is going on very well? remember secondmarket says 4th quarter of this year? do u even read news dude? i think your brains only have news in the past not the future.. LOL!
and yes.. if u quit bitcoin sell me cheap please.. why stay here? LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



bitcoin TO DA MOONN

[gentlemand]

Several hundred thousand coins have been publicly declared to be in the hands of investment professionals already. They treated it as a commodity long before it was declared as such by the IRS.

[cosmofly]

Thank u james this is the message ive been relaying

4 waves in 5 years is a lot, the S curve is over we are already at the top if the s curve. People here keep saying we will have endless waves of upside no way.

There will still be money made in bitcoin but for pro day traders from fluctations there is no more buy hold and earn 500%+

[m3g4tr0n]

Bitcoin has failed as a currency.

Last time I checked, adoption was still going up. Square does not add failed currencies to their options.

[spazzdla]

You people understand a 7 billion dollar mareket cap is pretty much nothing...  Understand that and you'll understand why people laugh at the idea BTC can't hit 10k +.

[the_sunship]

As I've read numerous times on this forum, it's going to the moon or to the ground.

As of right now, I don't see how this ends up at 0. Probably one of the benefits of Bitcoin is - it isn't a company (like Enron), so various good and bad players come in to work with it and the bad players screw up and drop out and the good players find rewards and move forward. BTC doesn't care. It just waits around for good ideas to be built on top of it. We haven't really gotten to that point yet on a wide scale.

We're early in the development of this technology and we have no idea what a bitcoin might be used for in the future. It might become a proof of ownership (like a notary), and that means it's function as "currency" would be only one aspect of it's use. It might end up being a payment system for for extremely large online transactions, like purchasing companies - or as I read recently, for purchasing a Stradivarius violin (estimated at + 60 million dollars).

I for one am committed to the idea. The white paper was/is a stroke of genius. Once I read it (even with my little understanding of computer science) I knew Bitcoin was something far bigger than swings up and down on an exchange. Patience is key. I've learned that painfully well during the times of the doldrums.

[lynn_402]

Bitcoin has failed as a currency. It is a store of value, a commodity like gold. How many people would like to use gold strictly as currency? After 4 and a half years, Satoshi Nakamoto's vision has been turned upside down; The BTC experiment is a failure. Without a strong government support, you can't have a secure, reliably and stable currency.

I know I would, and I'm sure most people here too, at least those who believe that the governments threatment of money is irrational.
And not many people would use gold as currency, because it is impractical. Paying with Bitcoin is ridiculously easy for both party, and actually has advantages over fiat (less fees, no chargeback, faster transfer).

I believe you're mistaken in saying that governments adds security, reliability and stability to a currency. Artificial inflation enpoverish everyone, and I'm sure many people want to get out of that flawed system.

[minerpart]

They do not like volatility in their invesstment portfolio.

Forgetting the spelling, what on Earth are you on about? Have you done any research into the methodologies of high performance Funds?

Institutions often put a percentage of their money into high-risk high-gain propositions. It is actually a central strategy and allows for significant profits by risking just a small percentage of the fund. And most do well by taking the calculated risks that allow them to out-perform the general market (Top 100 etc). Fund managing is all about managing high risk and low risk strategies in combination. High volatility in a deep market means there is potential for big gains and big investors love those two things in combination. However there needs to be strong and robust methods of exchange before big bucks will come in. They need to know they can exit a large position at market price with low levels of slippage and that sort of exchange situation/market depth does not exist. It needs to be built and it will be through 2014.   

[Ibian]

Yeah, a bit of code that turned into billions is a failure. Fuck off op. Seriously, get the hell out of here.

[Cyberlight]

It couldn't sustain at 1000 or 2000 dollars, you will get a very unstable store of value.
Bitcoin could be worth nothing, or a lot of money, there is no middle ground.

No institutional money ? obvious troll is obvious.

[suchnoob]

Bitcoin could be worth nothing, or a lot of money, there is no middle ground.

This.

[lynn_402]

Bitcoin could be worth nothing, or a lot of money, there is no middle ground.

Why not? Why couldn't it remain a niche crypto-libertarian currency whose value oscilliates between 300-600$ ?
Although I'm quite sure it has what it takes to be worth more.

[zzojar]

@ jamesc760,
yet you still have a bitcoin account yourself, and you still are active in bitcointalk threads ... so I think you are a liar. If you REALLY believed what you wrote, then you would get out now while you can and stop wasting your time here.

[Cyberlight]

Bitcoin could be worth nothing, or a lot of money, there is no middle ground.

Why not? Why couldn't it remain a niche crypto-libertarian currency whose value oscilliates between 300-600$ ?
Although I'm quite sure it has what it takes to be worth more.

It couldn't sustain at 1000 or 2000 dollars, you will get a very unstable store of value.

Therefore, too low market cap makes it easily to manipulate.

[lynn_402]

Therefore, too low market cap makes it easily to manipulate.

That would be the case only if most Bitcoin would stay in the wallets of a few persons, but if the price stays that way for a long time, surely they will sell and there will be a better distribution. Plus, there's the few thousands of new coins produced everyday that contribute to a better distribution therefore to a harder to manipulate market.

[pandher]

OP is right, stop being fanboys with riches struck eyes. Have a taste of reality. The people who gained profit are out now giving you worthless bags

[lynn_402]

OP is right, stop being fanboys with riches struck eyes. Have a taste of reality. The people who gained profit are out now giving you worthless bags

These persons got out between 800$ and 1200$, not at 400$
What we are at now, is a new wave of investors plus the older investors who truly believe in bitcoin and will sell only when it's worth way more than now. Expect a trend reversal right after next bottom

[vpitcher07]

 They will cash out if BTC goes up to $1000 level, if they have not cashed out yet. After cashing out, they will never come back. Once bitten, twice shy.

This is the only thing I agree with in OP's argument. We will see very very hard resistance in the $1,000 range if it ever reaches that again. Those who bought at 1k are going to be cashing in at once and we will see a crash back down again.

[spazzdla]

 They will cash out if BTC goes up to $1000 level, if they have not cashed out yet. After cashing out, they will never come back. Once bitten, twice shy.

This is the only thing I agree with in OP's argument. We will see very very hard resistance in the $1,000 range if it ever reaches that again. Those who bought at 1k are going to be cashing in at once and we will see a crash back down again.

Don't assume things, it's dangerous.

IMO we will see the prices fall hard this/next month due to china, it will attract buyers, all of the weak hands will be gone...