I finally found my way to this again.
There are 2 classes of long-term investors. One is the one that you are referring to, they do not know much about Bitcoin and are focused on gains. The other is completely opposite of this one, they know a lot about Bitcoin and they try to learn more continuously. They do not care about the price movement short term, but not even that much long-term even though they are confident that the trend is towards positive price performance. They are essentially living and breathing the Bitcoin life, I love people who are like that even if they are rare.
I am not sure why people would need to be in one camp or another, since guys can have gradients of each of the characteristics that you seem to be describing... .. so to be into bitcoin for the self sovereignty and also for the number go up.
In other words, why not both?
Bitcoin specifically has built in incentives and structures that contribute towards motivating investing time, energy and value into bitcoin, whether we are talking about node running, mining, developing, holding bitcoin directly and/or holding bitcoin through paper products (in which the actual bitcoin might not be there).
You are right, but often when we talk about groups or categories we are just doing it for clarity and it is implied that everything else in between can exist. We also say that things can be hot or cold, but they can be anything in between those. I observed those as 2 large groupings, maybe you can see them as extreme opposites of each other. They kind of stand out, that is why I notice them more. The first class is often those that bought all kinds of shitcoins and some of them even believe XRP is the next Bitcoin.

The other class, well if you ever meet a person like that, you will never forget them. Most people are in between, but they are less memorable because of that and that is fine.
Yep.. buyer beware and there seem to be even quite smart people who get sucked into the various scam products, and like you suggested some of them are more scammy than others... yet several of them can be very convincing and end up costing normies a lot of value (including wasting their time and energy too)
That is why I wish we were better at countering FUD and objectively false information even if it is hard to make measures that are hard to corrupt. From what I can observe of the internet platforms, only very specific groups or servers that are well moderated are rejecting misleading information. Here, on X, and many Reddit pages they let users write all kinds of false information and this inevitably leads to many people getting scammed. I don't know the best solution to this, that balances free speech but also protection of the normies. I guess private platforms could do better, but in any case government should not be doing this or we will become very censored and that is even worse than what we have now.
Of course we have development going on in terms of individual usage and also various paper products and financialization, and of course, the paperization will likely continue to play out as a kind of attack vector since the powers that be would like to be able to transact on bitcoin, and to ptu obstacles in the ways that individuals can transact on bitcoin without being monitored and/or otherwise controlled.
It is not all lovey dovey since the powers that be want to be able to harness bitcoin, even while they want to not kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. They would like to have their cake and eat it too.. even though bitcoin has probably advanced farther than they would have had wanted it to advance since it seems that only recently has the attacks transition from direct attacks to cooptation, even though surely ongoing evidence of direct attacks (such as arresting and jailing samurai developers) exists side by side.
I think that the maturity process is happening independently, but challenges are going to come again in different varieties and scale. They are often going to be similar challenges to those of the past, but sometimes they will be newer ones. The battle for privacy and sovereignty is going to happen continuously, and that is the one that we must participate in. If we lose that with Bitcoin, then the whole game is over. I can understand them wanting to coopt large portions of the supply, we can't prevent them from doing that because that is part of the decentralized nature. But we must stop them from limiting some of the key features that Bitcoin has, those that they don't like.
If we assume that the ETF data is real and that they are not selling a lot of paper Bitcoin,
These guys are professional manipulators, so you can believe them if you like.
I was not saying that we should assume or believe them, it was part of a conditional statement. If we assume that the data is false, then we can't say that it confirms anything at all since we don't know the degree to which it is false. 10% paper Bitcoin? 100%? 400%? There are huge differences between those metrics.
We have to take Saylor with a grain of salt.. Sure he might be a good guy and all, yet some aspect of what he is doing is getting too BIG for his own britches.
Strategy is too huge, it would be better for everyone if some other companies continue to buy instead and they stop. Better for them, for us and for Bitcoin. Becoming too big causes new systemic risks.
Hopefully, he does not end up fucking up in the custody arrangements and/or any backroom dealings that might be happening in and around him.
Yes that is a risk, he does not have that much of experience in these areas to be called an expert so there is a fair chance of someone trying to pull something on it.
He is likely mostly an outsider, and there probably are some status quo financial actors (JP Morgan, Jaime Diamond, et al) who would like Saylor to get wrecked in one way or another, even though we don't necessarily know various aspects of the insiderness/outsiderness and the various ways that pool might be clean or dirty... Saylor does travel with a lot of body guards, even though the last 5.5-ish years, he has been purposefully putting himself in the spotlight, a lot.
These are my thoughts exactly. He may have a big thing going on here, but he is an outsider to the status quo financial actors. Still I am not sure if this is bad or good compared to the alternative. If he was or becomes an insider there, it is a question if he would retain his pro Bitcoin views or he would try to sabotage users in favor of the institutional manipulations.
Even the Saylor products are complicated, since one thing is attempting to understand the underlying, but then trying to understand the underlying as compared with company stocks or various new financial products that they introduced ,and some of the products that they introduced were innovative in themselves. I have been participating in the MSTR thread since 2020, and still sometimes the new products come out and guys get so excited about them and even asking me why I was participating in the thread yet at the same time not buying the various MSTR products... so yeah, there were even guys kicking themselves for not buying various MSTR products in early 2025, yet they are relieved now, and then they are kicking themselves for not buying Gold and Silver prior to 2025. which yeah, these various ways of investing and/or allocating ourselves is all over the place. I am not going to claim to understand how they all relate to each other even though sometimes they might have positive and/or negative flows in and out of bitcoin, and even if many of us don't really know how so much of these matters relate to each other, we still might adjust our bitcoin position and/or our view and practices related to our bitcoin investment, our cashflow management practices and/or our decisions to get in or out of other assets.. .whether slowly over time or in a trading kind of way.. and I don't tend to like to trade or gamble, even though I have liked bitcoin and I continue to like bitcoin... even while know that there can be extended times that even bitcoin's price performance is confusing when looked at on its own or looked at in terms of various derrivative product and/or macro happenings (related products such as silver and gold).
It does not help at all that there are many kinds of products there, some are similar and others are completely different or new. For helping people understand all the products they should make a simple presentation or something that discusses and compares everything that they are offering. But this kind of clarity and transparency is rare these days. Even if they don't have any duty to do this, it would be a nice thing. When it comes to various allocations, I think the general rule is that people should try to buy when the prices are low whatever it is that they are buying. I have known many people who didn't buy silver for years while it was floating around $20 and now they bought at over $100, there were even some pictures of lines of people in some cities trying to buy gold and silver. The idea is to buy low and sell high, and not to buy high and sell low hopefully.

Crazy times in regards to people getting arrested in England for their internet activities (hate speech) and also attempts from various European Union to try to enforce their anti-speech laws on Americans who are not in the European Union (through extra-territoriality principles).. which the USA is also a very guilty party when it comes to enforcing USA laws on people outside of the USA.. CZ for example.
Yes, we live in very crazy time and what is even more dangerous is that many Europeans are on board with this or try to minimize the harm. Maybe I missed some threads, but I don't see many Europeans here fighting against these proposal or writing against them it seems they are mostly ignoring them and passively accepting it.