2025 Ballon d’Or Prediction thread

[NewRevelation]

I have checked out the pages a little and haven't seen a new thread for 2026 Ballon d'Or. Therefore I assume we can continue from here for that. Let's see...

We left the World Cup behind a short time ago. Spain won it. We all know the impact of this tournament and Champions League on the votes for the winner of this prize.

The current odds:

- Kane: 2.50
- Yamal: 3.00
- Mbappe: 4.50
- Rodri: 4.50
- Messi: 6.00

The closest to them behind is Dembele with 21.00 odds. It must be due to missing a ton of games this season. By the way I wasn't waiting for Kane to be top favourite.  

Dembele might go for it again, because he has been too good this period. He won the champions league, he played a major role for his country during the just concluded world cup tournament. He has been a fantastic player for club and country. I wouldn't be surprised if he picks it up again.

If we look at the likes of Kane, Messi, Rodri, Mbappe and Lamal, they have really done well, but I think Dembele has some more edge over them. Kane was fantastic last season for the Bundesliga side, but he didn't win the champions league. The same with Rodri, Lamal and Messi. Dembele also won domestic titles and I think he should be the favorite for the award this year. If he has won the World cup this year, there wouldn't have been any comparison at all. But he didn't win it, not even the 3rd place, so let's see how it goes then. But if I had the privilege, I would give him the award right away, lol

[Die_empty]

The closest to them behind is Dembele with 21.00 odds. It must be due to missing a ton of games this season. By the way I wasn't waiting for Kane to be top favourite.  

Kane and Yamal had a good club performance last season. Both of them won their local leagues and contributed greatly to the success of their clubs. The English captain's 61 goals in 51 outings is outstanding. So I'm not surprised that he is topping the list of players for the Ballon d'Or award.

What is Messi doing on the list? Maybe because he led Argentina to the final. In my view, he was not supposed to be on the list considering that he plays for a lowly placed league. The bad behaviour of the Argentine team, which he captains, should be another reason not to vote for him to win the award.

[RockBell]

Are we really sure that Messi won’t be part of the contenders? because their is a worrisome post i saw yesterday which stated that ‘you don’t need to win a trophy before you will be eligible for Ballon d’or’ so am thinking that somehow FIFA might still smuggle Messi into the equation, Messi really performed well in this just concluded 2026 World Cup and has also been exceptional in his club side Inter Miami and if you ask me i will prefer he wins this year’s Ballon d’or. If a neural person is to be picked apart from Messi i will suggest it should be Ousmane Dambele or Yamine Lamal, Harry Kane or Erling Haaland in an order of preference.

And I don't think that will occur because I'm suspicious that FIFA is supporting Messi, which is why I don't think Messi will be nominated. There must be concrete reasons for Messi to be nominated for the Balloon d'Or, and I'm confident that someone else will. We know that Messi performed well during the World Cup, and everything was overrated, and in a situation like this, even with that kind of performance, I'm very sure Messi won't be included.

And since many people are still focused on Messi and Ronaldo, who are undoubtedly legends that will never be forgotten, I even expect FIFA to be supporting the younger players who are coming. At the very least, the era of Messi and Ronaldo is coming to an end, and it should be left that way because we are now in a new season.

[Merit.s]

The closest to them behind is Dembele with 21.00 odds. It must be due to missing a ton of games this season. By the way I wasn't waiting for Kane to be top favourite.  

Kane and Yamal had a good club performance last season. Both of them won their local leagues and contributed greatly to the success of their clubs. The English captain's 61 goals in 51 outings is outstanding. So I'm not surprised that he is topping the list of players for the Ballon d'Or award.

What is Messi doing on the list? Maybe because he led Argentina to the final. In my view, he was not supposed to be on the list considering that he plays for a lowly placed league. The bad behaviour of the Argentine team, which he captains, should be another reason not to vote for him to win the award.

If FIFA likes let them put anybody in the list as long as Messi isn't the favorite, I'm not bothered about it. There is no manipulation FIFA can do this time around to say that Messi is the favorite.

Of course, the English international Harry Kane deserves the Ballon d'or because his performance was extraordinary last season both in the world cup and in his domestic league. He scored the highest goal in Europe Leagues last season.

[KTChampions]

Kane and Yamal had a good club performance last season. Both of them won their local leagues and contributed greatly to the success of their clubs. The English captain's 61 goals in 51 outings is outstanding. So I'm not surprised that he is topping the list of players for the Ballon d'Or award.

What is Messi doing on the list? Maybe because he led Argentina to the final. In my view, he was not supposed to be on the list considering that he plays for a lowly placed league. The bad behaviour of the Argentine team, which he captains, should be another reason not to vote for him to win the award.

Messi is a brand, they milk him for as long as they can. It's no surprise that he's on the list even though he plays in a mickey mouse league.
Yamal openly supports Palestine, I don’t think that the elites (who have a directly opposite position on this issue) will increase the weight of Yamal’s voice with awards. It probably even makes sense to go to Polymarket and bet that Yamal won't win 
For me, Kane is the main choice, second is Rodri, but Rodri didn’t have any special achievements last season except for the World Cup.

[snipie]

Although in the World Cup England was ranked 3rd but I expect Kane to succeed for the ballon d'Or this time.

Many in England are supporting Harry Kane but to be honest, his contribution with Bayern Munich is undeniable but with England is less since they finished 3rd and he is not topping the best scorers in the World Cup. Lamine Yamal secured La Liga and the World Cup which is a big boost but Kylian Mbappe is topping everyone when it comes to the best scorer in La Liga, UEFA Champions League and the World Cup record. The problem with Kylian Mbappe is his domestic but also national team didn't win trophies so the race is open for all these three. I don't see any point from adding any other player in that list.
By the way, it would be better to either modify the title of this thread or simply open a new one.

[Taricoins]

The closest to them behind is Dembele with 21.00 odds. It must be due to missing a ton of games this season. By the way I wasn't waiting for Kane to be top favourite.  

Kane and Yamal had a good club performance last season. Both of them won their local leagues and contributed greatly to the success of their clubs. The English captain's 61 goals in 51 outings is outstanding. So I'm not surprised that he is topping the list of players for the Ballon d'Or award.

What is Messi doing on the list? Maybe because he led Argentina to the final. In my view, he was not supposed to be on the list considering that he plays for a lowly placed league. The bad behaviour of the Argentine team, which he captains, should be another reason not to vote for him to win the award.

Looking at all the names currently ok this, I find it hard to believe that Cubarsi's name isn't being mentioned and for individual performances, hands down its suppose to be for Mbappe because he was terrifying last season, he won the golden boot in all the major competitions he featured in, he won it in Laliga, the Champions League, and even the World Cup, that shows excellence and if it was Cristiano Ronaldo, we won't be making this debate at all.

Yamal should just be kicked off that list

[red4slash]

After the World Cup is over, the ranks of ballon d'Or candidates are starting to get crowded again and there are some names that are sure to enter such as Dembele, Mbappe, Haaland, Messi, Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Harry Kane.

But looking at some of the data available now it looks like Lamine Yamal is still a strong candidate to get the ballon d'or now. It's just that if the benchmark still remains the same as before of course Kane or Messi also still be worthy to be in the strong candidates now.
Although the euphoria of the ballon d'or in recent seasons is still quite declining for me but it is interesting to wait for who will lift this now.

Ballon d'or 2026 Power Rankings

Although in the World Cup England was ranked 3rd but I expect Kane to succeed for the ballon d'Or this time.

Harry Kane, who stood out with the goals he scored across all competitions throughout the year, is—in my opinion, too—the top contender.
All the players mentioned are top-quality names, but Kane is the leading candidate.
Spain won the World Cup, but Rodri didn't contribute much in the Premier League last season.
I wouldn't be surprised if there were a surprise winner this year. Yamal is my dark horse candidate.

But even though Yamal and Kane are competing I think Lamine Yamal will now be very difficult to get first place in the ballon d'or rankings.
In terms of trophies in the league maybe they are the same but Kane is more dominant on one side of the World Cup also actually Lamine Yamal is not better than Kane even though he managed to bring Spain to get the trophy but when talking about individuals at this time Kane is far superior. I also agree with what KTChampions said with the Palestinian issue although this should be different in terms of context but the vocal support of Lamine Yamal will annoy him because it is at odds with the elite of fifa itself.

Rodri can still be used as an option but he also loses in terms of performance in the domestic league. For Messi, if indeed he does not take advantage that he always benefits from Fifa for me he does not really deserve to be here just because the treatment from fifa is a little different even though it is not explained explicitly we must realize it is not. It would be quite possible he could be and it would be surprising if there was a federation intervention for some other player.
Messi's form has actually gone down a lot (although for the size of an old player he's still very good) but if he manages to be in top position for the Ballon d'or when he's at Inter Miami which in terms of competition is much different to the domestic leagues in Europe I think it's a bit outrageous.

[Curious T]

Looking at all the names currently ok this, I find it hard to believe that Cubarsi's name isn't being mentioned and for individual performances, hands down its suppose to be for Mbappe because he was terrifying last season, he won the golden boot in all the major competitions he featured in, he won it in Laliga, the Champions League, and even the World Cup, that shows excellence and if it was Cristiano Ronaldo, we won't be making this debate at all.

Yamal should just be kicked off that list

Every year you people shift the goalpost for the criteria to win the Ballon d'Or. You want Mbappe to win the Ballon d'Or, despite the fact that he didn't win a single trophy with his club and country, but you want Yamal to be taken off the list. You people can't even hide your bias. Yes, he had the Golden Boot in all the competitions he played in, but that is why there is a Gerd Müller Trophy given to the best striker of the season. In a World Cup year, he should have at least won the World Cup before he could win the Ballon d'Or, since he didn't win anything with his club. Lamine Yamal won the best player in a league where he and Mbappe played in, and won the league over Mbappe. His team knocked Mbappe out of the World Cup and won, but somehow Mbappe deserves to win it while Lamine Yamal should be kicked off the list. What kind of logic is this?

[OsaiEmma]

Are we really sure that Messi won’t be part of the contenders? because their is a worrisome post i saw yesterday which stated that ‘you don’t need to win a trophy before you will be eligible for Ballon d’or’ so am thinking that somehow FIFA might still smuggle Messi into the equation, Messi really performed well in this just concluded 2026 World Cup and has also been exceptional in his club side Inter Miami and if you ask me i will prefer he wins this year’s Ballon d’or. If a neural person is to be picked apart from Messi i will suggest it should be Ousmane Dambele or Yamine Lamal, Harry Kane or Erling Haaland in an order of preference.

And I don't think that will occur because I'm suspicious that FIFA is supporting Messi, which is why I don't think Messi will be nominated. There must be concrete reasons for Messi to be nominated for the Balloon d'Or, and I'm confident that someone else will. We know that Messi performed well during the World Cup, and everything was overrated, and in a situation like this, even with that kind of performance, I'm very sure Messi won't be included.

And since many people are still focused on Messi and Ronaldo, who are undoubtedly legends that will never be forgotten, I even expect FIFA to be supporting the younger players who are coming. At the very least, the era of Messi and Ronaldo is coming to an end, and it should be left that way because we are now in a new season.

No doubt he is getting old, and the Messi - Ronaldo era is now behind us, but that can't override his impressive feat in the just concluded world cup.

The world cup usually do have much more influence when It comes to the ballon d'or, and we all know that Messi has the highest stats in GA (goals and assist). He made far more contributions in a team than any player; scoring 21 goals and providing 12 assists, that's in no way an exaggerated or overrated hype if he is hailed and nominated.

We can all go on in being Messi's haters, but he's undeniably a solid player; performing with such pace at that age is unprecedented.

[Joeboy]

Looking at all the names currently ok this, I find it hard to believe that Cubarsi's name isn't being mentioned and for individual performances, hands down its suppose to be for Mbappe because he was terrifying last season, he won the golden boot in all the major competitions he featured in, he won it in Laliga, the Champions League, and even the World Cup, that shows excellence and if it was Cristiano Ronaldo, we won't be making this debate at all.

Yamal should just be kicked off that list

I doubt if the numbers of goals and personal achievements is the major criteria they use in determining the winner... If that was so then obviously C Ronaldo would have made top 5, coz yeah he too score goals for his club, even though he really didn't perform.well for his country at the just concluded WC... MBAPPE goals for me are more of less useless coz this goals didn't help both his country and club win any major trophy.... Okay he won the Golden Boot across major competition, but how does that help his team? There isn't even any kind of positive impact those goals brought to his team...Team achievement as well as collective efforts actually on the top of the list that they use to determine the winner and in this Case really think that Rodri gats this.. Not only did he receive personal awards, he also helped his team win the WC, that is a indeed is a remarkable achievement...If this his injury stops him from winning it then my next bet goes to Harry Kane, coz he too has been really superb both for this club and country...

[Hewlet]

The closest to them behind is Dembele with 21.00 odds. It must be due to missing a ton of games this season. By the way I wasn't waiting for Kane to be top favourite.  

What is Messi doing on the list? Maybe because he led Argentina to the final. In my view, he was not supposed to be on the list considering that he plays for a lowly placed league. The bad behaviour of the Argentine team, which he captains, should be another reason not to vote for him to win the award.

Take sentiment out of your analysis and you will agree that Messi has every right to be in the Ballon d’Or discussion seeing that he not only led his team to the finals of the world cup but came out as the runner up for the highest goal scored in the last edition of the FIFA MEN'S WORLD CUP. certainly, he can not win against the likes of harry kane, Yamal and Dembele but seeing his name in the list is nothing out of the ordinary. yamal still have more possibility of winning the ballon d'or and might even win it this time around but we have to see what fifa will decide on this and we can now see how winning the champions league vs winning the world cup plays a role in who eventually wins the Ballon d’Or. it is likely going to be a race between yamal and Dembele.

[jakdanyel]

Looking at all the names currently ok this, I find it hard to believe that Cubarsi's name isn't being mentioned and for individual performances, hands down its suppose to be for Mbappe because he was terrifying last season, he won the golden boot in all the major competitions he featured in, he won it in Laliga, the Champions League, and even the World Cup, that shows excellence and if it was Cristiano Ronaldo, we won't be making this debate at all.

Yamal should just be kicked off that list

Defenders aren't given Ballon d'Or that easy I'm afraid. The last time a defender claimed it must be Cannavaro in 2006.    So it's hard to see Cubarsi or any other defender to get it.

Even central midfielders rarely get it, like Modric and Rodri. I wouldn't kick off Yamal but I don't think he will win it either. His World Cup performance was really horrible so I see it also as one of the main reasons why he shouldn't be selected.

[Salahmu]

Defenders aren't given Ballon d'Or that easy I'm afraid. The last time a defender claimed it must be Cannavaro in 2006.    So it's hard to see Cubarsi or any other defender to get it.

Even central midfielders rarely get it, like Modric and Rodri. I wouldn't kick off Yamal but I don't think he will win it either. His World Cup performance was really horrible so I see it also as one of the main reasons why he shouldn't be selected.

Why are you excluding Lamine Yamal as one of the best for the Ballon d'Or? He is actually the most qualified than any players you have in mind and he was very bright on the world Cup. Defenders are always unlucky for the Ballon d'Or because even if they had the chance to be nominated but they always loss it for strikers, last year Achraf Hakimi was one of the defender that got listed for the Ballon d'Or, although the positions are also one of the challenges for the players  because strikers are always more relevance in the pitch than any other positions even if midfield also does a lot of work.

[leea-1334]

Take sentiment out of your analysis and you will agree that Messi has every right to be in the Ballon d’Or discussion seeing that he not only led his team to the finals of the world cup but came out as the runner up for the highest goal scored in the last edition of the FIFA MEN'S WORLD CUP.

For all the times Messi did not deserve to be in it,,, I have to agree that he even has the right to be in the discussion for the winner. Carried his team in USA, carried his team in WC qualifiers and carried his team in group stages all the way to the final where when he could not play his best game,,, his team lost.

Not a Messi fan but the way Kane and Dembele just failed against France and Spain?? Kane won Bundesliga sure but Bayern always win Bundesliga.

[Antotena]

Kane and Yamal had a good club performance last season. Both of them won their local leagues and contributed greatly to the success of their clubs. The English captain's 61 goals in 51 outings is outstanding. So I'm not surprised that he is topping the list of players for the Ballon d'Or award.

The kind of PR we give Yamal is out of this world and I don't know why. He did well in Laliga which everyone saw but let's not forget he had his first goal, just 1 goal in the world cup. I will give the credit to him but he is not supposed to sit where elders are but I get it, Balon D'or and Fifa likes when things go viral, they will give votes to players that will make them to go viral than allow another player to take the spots, beside he is media trained, he knows what to do.

What is Messi doing on the list? Maybe because he led Argentina to the final. In my view, he was not supposed to be on the list considering that he plays for a lowly placed league. The bad behaviour of the Argentine team, which he captains, should be another reason not to vote for him to win the award.

If Messi is not there, who do are you expecting? This is what I'm saying, I did even wanted Argentina to stand a chance in the world cup final, I wanted England but since they won, they were the only team I wanted. If he doesn't win the award it's understandable due to the low final performance but it's going to be ridiculous to say that he does not deserve to be their, he made everyone loves this world cup until the final.

[IceLincoln]

I have checked out the pages a little and haven't seen a new thread for 2026 Ballon d'Or. Therefore I assume we can continue from here for that. Let's see...

We left the World Cup behind a short time ago. Spain won it. We all know the impact of this tournament and Champions League on the votes for the winner of this prize.

The current odds:

- Kane: 2.50
- Yamal: 3.00
- Mbappe: 4.50
- Rodri: 4.50
- Messi: 6.00

The closest to them behind is Dembele with 21.00 odds. It must be due to missing a ton of games this season. By the way I wasn't waiting for Kane to be top favourite.  

Dembele might go for it again, because he has been too good this period. He won the champions league, he played a major role for his country during the just concluded world cup tournament. He has been a fantastic player for club and country. I wouldn't be surprised if he picks it up again.

If we look at the likes of Kane, Messi, Rodri, Mbappe and Lamal, they have really done well, but I think Dembele has some more edge over them. Kane was fantastic last season for the Bundesliga side, but he didn't win the champions league. The same with Rodri, Lamal and Messi. Dembele also won domestic titles and I think he should be the favorite for the award this year. If he has won the World cup this year, there wouldn't have been any comparison at all. But he didn't win it, not even the 3rd place, so let's see how it goes then. But if I had the privilege, I would give him the award right away, lol

I don’t understand or begin to comprehend how you came to the conclusion that Oussmane Dembele can win it and even above those guys mentioned there. Dembele had a good season as a player but he wasn’t the best player of the Champions League.
For what it’s worth Kylian Mbappe had the best individual season but his lack of trophies will be his downfall then there’s Michael Olise who’s not in this list. Lionel would have been a strong contender if he had won the World Cup.  Rodri and Yamal are just there cause they’re excellent players and they won the World Cup, Lamine is a stronger Contender as he was Laliga best player too but Rodri (I don’t know what’s going on with that guy).
For me Harry Kane is the best Contender, but it could still be anyone not Dembele.

[KTChampions]

Defenders aren't given Ballon d'Or that easy I'm afraid. The last time a defender claimed it must be Cannavaro in 2006.    So it's hard to see Cubarsi or any other defender to get it.

Even central midfielders rarely get it, like Modric and Rodri. I wouldn't kick off Yamal but I don't think he will win it either. His World Cup performance was really horrible so I see it also as one of the main reasons why he shouldn't be selected.

Yes, the fact is that for a defender to win the Ballon d'Or, he first needs to create some kind of legacy. Kubarasi is only 19 years old, and although he has titles, he's not even close to being a contender for the award. Yamal had a decent performance at the World Cup, but certainly not enough to become a top contender for the award given his political stance, he needed to be five times better. Currently, on Polymarket, the chance that Yamal will not win the award is quoted at 1.29.

[Charcol]

Take sentiment out of your analysis and you will agree that Messi has every right to be in the Ballon d’Or discussion seeing that he not only led his team to the finals of the world cup but came out as the runner up for the highest goal scored in the last edition of the FIFA MEN'S WORLD CUP.

For all the times Messi did not deserve to be in it,,, I have to agree that he even has the right to be in the discussion for the winner. Carried his team in USA, carried his team in WC qualifiers and carried his team in group stages all the way to the final where when he could not play his best game,,, his team lost.

Not a Messi fan but the way Kane and Dembele just failed against France and Spain?? Kane won Bundesliga sure but Bayern always win Bundesliga.

It is overly simplistic to say that Argentina lost only because Messi did not play well in the final. He has already scored 8 goals and taken Argentina to the final at the age of 40, which is not an ordinary achievement. Rather, it is an extraordinary achievement. Again, Messi has created many opportunities for the other players of his team to attack.

However, there is no opportunity to underestimate Kane and Dembele just by looking at the results of one knockout match. Kane has scored 6 goals and made one assist in the entire World Cup. Although he is eliminated against France, I will not underestimate him for that.

[Oluwa-btc]

I have checked out the pages a little and haven't seen a new thread for 2026 Ballon d'Or. Therefore I assume we can continue from here for that. Let's see...

We left the World Cup behind a short time ago. Spain won it. We all know the impact of this tournament and Champions League on the votes for the winner of this prize.

The current odds:

- Kane: 2.50
- Yamal: 3.00
- Mbappe: 4.50
- Rodri: 4.50
- Messi: 6.00

The closest to them behind is Dembele with 21.00 odds. It must be due to missing a ton of games this season. By the way I wasn't waiting for Kane to be top favourite.  

The English Captain and Bayern Munich striker as number 1 and favorite is perfect. He is the rightful owner this term. Did you all see the numbers in a single season for club and country? He is second to none for this award in my opinion.

Lamine Yamal before Kylian Mbappe has got to be mind blowing trust me. Kylian Mbappe is the highest goal scorer for La Liga, Champions League competition and FIFA world cup competition. Are the bookmakers drunk or something?! Maybe!

Rodri and Lionel Messi played important and instrumental roles in this tournament but their respective positions and numbering perfect.