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Author Topic: Would people pour their cash into bitcoin given a stock market crash?  (Read 8668 times)
bitcoinforhelp
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April 08, 2014, 07:34:18 PM
 #21

pobably yes, same as gold price crash
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April 08, 2014, 07:43:52 PM
 #22

If the stock market crashes, gold and US$ will be king. There will be massive rush to convert everything into gold and cash. Cryptocurrency won't survive.

Could you offer a bit more "proof?"
Cryptocurrency won't survive.
Why not?

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April 08, 2014, 10:00:06 PM
 #23

If the stock market crashes, gold and US$ will be king. There will be massive rush to convert everything into gold and cash. Cryptocurrency won't survive.

I'd agree with that, but saying cryptocurrency wouldn't "survive" is an overstatement.   Cryptocurrency's value depends on utility in commerce, and it would suffer during an economic downturn, but to assume that the need for it would disappear entirely doesn't seem probable.
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April 09, 2014, 04:53:46 AM
 #24

"Stockmarket crash" is a nice tidy term that public can fathom but doesn't even scratch the surface when describing most financial crises.

Autumn 2007 was when the market for MBS, CDO's and other exotic housing derivatives froze up (remember the "credit crunch" is well contained propaganda ~ H. Paulson?). That precipitated a general crisis of confidence in all money markets that felled Bear Stearns in Spring '08 and crisis festered on until the stockmarkets finally collapsed, money markets funds stopped paying $1-$1 and ATM's were rumoured to have been hours away from shutting down in Autumn '08 ... whilst Lehman Brothers bellied up and all the major banks were basically shown to be trading whilst insolvent (they changed the laws around GAAP to stop them being criminally prosecuted for doing so).

Long story short, the next crisis will not be just a simple "stock market" crash. The entire global monetary system is so intertwined now with the risk being more concentrated, with centralisation of debt and leverage on the central bank balance sheets and consolidation of assets into fewer mega trading banks, that the monetary system as a whole will just freeze up in its entirety. The state of the stock market will be an addendum to the whole sorry saga. It may take a few days, weeks or maybe it will struggle on for a month or so, but if this puppy goes down now, it is not getting back up. The Martingale game being played out by the banksters since Greenspan begun the run by doubling down in 1987 has reached the ultimate conclusion ... the next bet is for all the marbles, the global monetary system has been bet on red, and it is only a matter of time before fate throws up a black.

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April 09, 2014, 07:18:21 AM
 #25

"Stockmarket crash" is a nice tidy term that public can fathom but doesn't even scratch the surface when describing most financial crises.

Autumn 2007 was when the market for MBS, CDO's and other exotic housing derivatives froze up (remember the "credit crunch" is well contained propaganda ~ H. Paulson?). That precipitated a general crisis of confidence in all money markets that felled Bear Stearns in Spring '08 and crisis festered on until the stockmarkets finally collapsed, money markets funds stopped paying $1-$1 and ATM's were rumoured to have been hours away from shutting down in Autumn '08 ... whilst Lehman Brothers bellied up and all the major banks were basically shown to be trading whilst insolvent (they changed the laws around GAAP to stop them being criminally prosecuted for doing so).

Long story short, the next crisis will not be just a simple "stock market" crash. The entire global monetary system is so intertwined now with the risk being more concentrated, with centralisation of debt and leverage on the central bank balance sheets and consolidation of assets into fewer mega trading banks, that the monetary system as a whole will just freeze up in its entirety. The state of the stock market will be an addendum to the whole sorry saga. It may take a few days, weeks or maybe it will struggle on for a month or so, but if this puppy goes down now, it is not getting back up. The Martingale game being played out by the banksters since Greenspan begun the run by doubling down in 1987 has reached the ultimate conclusion ... the next bet is for all the marbles, the global monetary system has been bet on red, and it is only a matter of time before fate throws up a black.


^martingale the dog jones! LOLOLOLLL =)

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April 09, 2014, 02:02:43 PM
 #26

Long story short, the next crisis will not be just a simple "stock market" crash. The entire global monetary system is so intertwined now with the risk being more concentrated, with centralisation of debt and leverage on the central bank balance sheets and consolidation of assets into fewer mega trading banks, that the monetary system as a whole will just freeze up in its entirety. The state of the stock market will be an addendum to the whole sorry saga. It may take a few days, weeks or maybe it will struggle on for a month or so, but if this puppy goes down now, it is not getting back up. The Martingale game being played out by the banksters since Greenspan begun the run by doubling down in 1987 has reached the ultimate conclusion ... the next bet is for all the marbles, the global monetary system has been bet on red, and it is only a matter of time before fate throws up a black.

Your're writing like a witness of the apocalypse... Grin

But I couldn't agree more. The next crash will be of epic proportions. But I still think life will go on after the dust has settled (years or decades).
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April 09, 2014, 04:03:37 PM
 #27

Next crash won't be epic. It will be a minor dip. And then the market will recover and go on its merry way again. There's too much money, too much liquidity being put into reserves in the banks, at least in the US. Where the US goes, the world will follow. You can't deny it.
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April 09, 2014, 04:28:16 PM
 #28

Stock market crash will drive investors into gold, bonds, debentures... because they want a safe and liquid investment. Bitcoin is too volatile to qualify as a save investment. Besides they are so many other global equities to choose from, even if they would consider bitcoin, it is way down the list.
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April 09, 2014, 05:11:48 PM
 #29

Next crash won't be epic. It will be a minor dip. And then the market will recover and go on its merry way again. There's too much money, too much liquidity being put into reserves in the banks, at least in the US. Where the US goes, the world will follow. You can't deny it.

In nominal values yes the us stocks will go up and some us companies are going to do well in the new world but the USD will collapse, Yellen is going to increase QE when it gets tough

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April 09, 2014, 09:04:56 PM
 #30

Next crash won't be epic. It will be a minor dip. And then the market will recover and go on its merry way again. There's too much money, too much liquidity being put into reserves in the banks, at least in the US. Where the US goes, the world will follow. You can't deny it.


+1 right? Obama is wayyyy too entrenched with Wall Street to let an epic crash happen! ;-) *jmho*

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April 10, 2014, 10:13:43 AM
 #31

Obama is counting on a collapse.  Collapse = civil unrest = martial law = elections suspended = POTUS indefinately.
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April 10, 2014, 04:39:26 PM
 #32

Not a chance. traders do not go from one volatile market to another. Iff big losses they search for safe harbours...
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April 13, 2014, 12:27:57 AM
 #33

#1, people have been predicting a stock market crash for years, and just like apocalypse predictions, or predictions about the return of Jesus, they are all bullshit.
#2, if people really lost a lot of money in the stock market, the last thing they would want to do is re-invest the little they have left in something they know little about. Their faith is investments will be waivering, and likely they will be more inclined to invest conservatively, except for the gambling addicts (which are probably the small minority).

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April 13, 2014, 12:45:39 PM
 #34

we've been converting paper to assets for some time...
some money will go into crypto via the last ones out I'm sure.
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April 13, 2014, 02:14:31 PM
 #35

#2, if people really lost a lot of money in the stock market, the last thing they would want to do is re-invest the little they have left in something they know little about. Their faith is investments will be waivering, and likely they will be more inclined to invest conservatively, except for the gambling addicts (which are probably the small minority).

Not so, this is one of the side effects of ZIRP & QE

People in cash or who are trying to regain lost wealth have no incentive to stay in cash as they are losing money (inflation higher than rate of return in bank). This is not a mistake, it is designed to re-inflate the bubbles. People feel good when their assets are rising and there are only two mainstream games in town; stocks and RE. The Fed herds people into this market & market participants know the Fed can't stop printing and can't raise rates, so big banks and many regular joes are incentivized to throw all they have at it, effectively double down. If shit hits the fan they figure they'll be getting another handout anyway.

And a stockmarket crash is not bullshit, it's just a matter of time. The US doesn't want a crash and will print til they can't print anymore. Whether that is next week or in twenty years is up for debate. The US is using Japans minor leagues playbook and taking it to the majors. Who knows how or when it'll blow up good and proper, but when it does, its sayonara USD.

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April 13, 2014, 08:04:39 PM
 #36

#2, if people really lost a lot of money in the stock market, the last thing they would want to do is re-invest the little they have left in something they know little about. Their faith is investments will be waivering, and likely they will be more inclined to invest conservatively, except for the gambling addicts (which are probably the small minority).

Not so, this is one of the side effects of ZIRP & QE

People in cash or who are trying to regain lost wealth have no incentive to stay in cash as they are losing money (inflation higher than rate of return in bank). This is not a mistake, it is designed to re-inflate the bubbles. People feel good when their assets are rising and there are only two mainstream games in town; stocks and RE. The Fed herds people into this market & market participants know the Fed can't stop printing and can't raise rates, so big banks and many regular joes are incentivized to throw all they have at it, effectively double down. If shit hits the fan they figure they'll be getting another handout anyway.

And a stockmarket crash is not bullshit, it's just a matter of time. The US doesn't want a crash and will print til they can't print anymore. Whether that is next week or in twenty years is up for debate. The US is using Japans minor leagues playbook and taking it to the majors. Who knows how or when it'll blow up good and proper, but when it does, its sayonara USD.



The USD will crash it is just a matter a time bc when it gets worse, the FED will print like there is no tomorrow

A lot of US companies are great and have oversea revenues and their revenue is still going to be strong when the US kind of collapse

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April 14, 2014, 03:03:44 AM
 #37

deflation typically precedes hyperinflation.  in that scenario, expect bitcoin to decline during the early deflationary phase, and rise in anticipation of the hyperinflationary phase.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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April 14, 2014, 12:11:49 PM
 #38

deflation typically precedes hyperinflation.  in that scenario, expect bitcoin to decline during the early deflationary phase, and rise in anticipation of the hyperinflationary phase.

I don't see any deflation, we should have some and having 2% of official inflation is huge compared to having -3 or -4% but I agree that the price will rise as soon as we enter in the hyper inflationary phase that should start within 2-3years

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April 16, 2014, 07:27:45 AM
 #39

bitcoin will explode just like what happened in cyprus
so will physical gold/silver

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April 16, 2014, 08:17:58 AM
 #40

bitcoin will explode just like what happened in cyprus
so will physical gold/silver

explode in the sense the price will go up tremendously?

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