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Author Topic: CryptoWaves - Elliott Wave Analysis Blog  (Read 29075 times)
chessnut
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April 19, 2014, 03:14:16 AM
Last edit: April 19, 2014, 06:36:30 AM by chessnut
 #121

well fr33d0miz3r, it's a possibility, but Im not going to consider that analysis without a fundamental reason. Bitcoin is not an idle currency, and I believe that if it stalls it may collapse for good under speculative weight. the fundamentals say this is developing at an exponential pace, and I have to be bullish in the next 6 months. 266 retest is possible, but very unlikely if bitcoin is in fact on a path to succeed.

..... seems like we might see wave V unfold soon. though it will take days...

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chessnut
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April 19, 2014, 06:39:19 AM
 #122



wave V break out. good luck folks  Wink blow out fifth wave plz  Grin

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April 19, 2014, 06:49:48 AM
 #123

well fr33d0miz3r, it's a possibility, but Im not going to consider that analysis without a fundamental reason. Bitcoin is not an idle currency, and I believe that if it stalls it may collapse for good under speculative weight. the fundamentals say this is developing at an exponential pace, and I have to be bullish in the next 6 months. 266 retest is possible, but very unlikely if bitcoin is in fact on a path to succeed.

..... seems like we might see wave V unfold soon. though it will take days...

Right now we have 50/50 chances for $266 retest and for going up right now. It depends on which EMA we will break soon...

I think sideways action for 1-1.5 years (final motive wave + long flat correction) would be healthy for bitcoin before the great runup to $1M.
Because right now there are too many "early adopters" holding tons of cheap bitcoins who are too greedy and tempted to cash out at prices between $400-$1200, and there are "smart money" people who know this and want to buy as many coins as possible below $1000.

I have corrected my count a bit. I think this is more possible:



It means we can have the top at $1600-$1800 this summer and then the bottom of the upcoming correction will depend on our current bottom ($340 or $260 if we go lower now).
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April 19, 2014, 06:53:36 AM
 #124

I disagree..... EW analysis does not permit us to ignore fundamentals. Bitcoin is expanding at an exponential rate. It cannot stall or speculative weight will damage it.

I would say 20% max of a 266 retest.

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April 19, 2014, 07:06:26 AM
 #125

I disagree..... EW analysis does not permit us to ignore fundamentals. Bitcoin is expanding at an exponential rate. It cannot stall or speculative weight will damage it.

I would say 20% max of a 266 retest.

Elliott waves are much more than just a price movement.
I'm pretty sure that fundamentals follow waves, and not waves follow fundamentals. It means you can predict real life events using EW.

Example: before New Year I analyzed RTS index (Russian Trade System - main economics indicator). I saw the picture: a big crash in 2008-2009 (economic crisis), and then a little growth and stabilization. I assumed that the crash could be a wave A, following growth is a wave B and according to Fib time there must be another crash in spring of 2014 (wave C).

Russian economy looked pretty stable in late 2013, so I assumed that there would be some bad events which could cause another wave of crisis in Russia. What happened then? Russian/Ukrainian conflict which was followed by US/EU economic sanctions (import of lots of products became limited), and then RTS index and Russian ruble fell to 2009 lows.

How did I know about possible Russian/Ukrainian conflict and American/European sanctions? I just knew that something *bad* could happen, nothing more.  
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April 19, 2014, 07:15:18 AM
 #126

Finally an impulse up. Hourly candle looks very similar to the one from $409 to $475 on the first wave of iii up.
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April 19, 2014, 07:18:10 AM
 #127

I disagree..... EW analysis does not permit us to ignore fundamentals. Bitcoin is expanding at an exponential rate. It cannot stall or speculative weight will damage it.

I would say 20% max of a 266 retest.

Elliott waves are much more than just a price movement.
I'm pretty sure that fundamentals follow waves, and not waves follow fundamentals. It means you can predict real life events using EW.

Example: before New Year I analyzed RTS index (Russian Trade System - main economics indicator). I saw the picture: a big crash in 2008-2009 (economic crisis), and then a little growth and stabilization. I assumed that the crash could be a wave A, following growth is a wave B and according to Fib time there must be another crash in spring of 2014 (wave C).

Russian economy looked pretty stable in late 2013, so I assumed that there would some bad events which could cause another wave of crisis in Russia. What happened then? Russian/Ukrainian conflict which was followed by US/EU economic sanctions (import of lots of products became limited), and then RTS index and Russian ruble fell to 2009 lows.

How could I know about possible Russian/Ukrainian conflict and American/European sanctions? I just knew that something *bad* could happen, nothing more.  

I disagree again, waves reflect fundamentals, they are synonimous, this is not magic or superficial. The reason why news seems to often coincide with junctures is because when the market is at extreme junctures the market is vulnerable to news. news items come every day, bad and good, but most are not significant enough for long term effect, unless the market is positioned for reversal. there is also a conspiracy component, but the waves are still only a reflection of the fundamentals/insider behaviour.

I can burn down a car factory at will, at the throw of a dice, and the stock in that company will crash for certain if it results in destruction. I will cause a wave, and the wave will reflect the destruction.

the arguments that we can predict presidential elections with EW is part of the social mood feature, sentiment.




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April 19, 2014, 07:18:56 AM
 #128

Finally an impulse up. Hourly candle looks very similar to the one from $409 to $475 on the first wave of iii up.

.... many of us here believe this is wave V. can you please illustrate iii wave interpretation?

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April 19, 2014, 07:25:54 AM
 #129

I disagree again, waves reflect fundamentals, they are synonimous, this is not magic or superficial. The reason why news seems to often coincide with junctures is because when the market is at extreme junctures the market is vulnerable to news. news items come every day, bad and good, but most are not significant enough for long term effect, unless the market is positioned for reversal. there is also a conspiracy component, but the waves are still only a reflection of the fundamentals/insider behaviour.

I can burn down a car factory at will, at the throw of a dice, and the stock in that company will crash for certain if it results in destruction. I will cause a wave, and the wave will reflect the destruction.

the arguments that we can predict presidential elections with EW is part of the social mood feature, sentiment.


I would say waves == fundamentals.
What is Fib time? It's a timer in your brain. Timer for responce/reaction to events. Every fundamental event is a someone's reaction to someone's action. So, our own life is a big cycle which has waves that act according to Fib time (a timer in our or someone else's brain).

So we can predict lots of fundamental events using this method. Because every event is a human's reaction to something.
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April 19, 2014, 07:37:28 AM
 #130

I disagree again, waves reflect fundamentals, they are synonimous, this is not magic or superficial. The reason why news seems to often coincide with junctures is because when the market is at extreme junctures the market is vulnerable to news. news items come every day, bad and good, but most are not significant enough for long term effect, unless the market is positioned for reversal. there is also a conspiracy component, but the waves are still only a reflection of the fundamentals/insider behaviour.

I can burn down a car factory at will, at the throw of a dice, and the stock in that company will crash for certain if it results in destruction. I will cause a wave, and the wave will reflect the destruction.

the arguments that we can predict presidential elections with EW is part of the social mood feature, sentiment.


I would say waves == fundamentals.
What is Fib time? It's a timer in your brain. Timer for responce/reaction to events. Every fundamental event is a someone's reaction to someone's action. So, our own life is a big cycle which has waves that act according to Fib time (a timer in our or someone else's brain).

So we can predict lots of fundamental events using this method. Because every event is a human's reaction to something.

yes herd psychology makes EW robust, and is just as important fundamentally as GDP for example. but which piece of information would you rather have - the company that you own stock in is about to burn down, or the company that you hold stock in has possibly completed a fifth wave?


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April 19, 2014, 07:50:24 AM
Last edit: April 19, 2014, 08:18:48 AM by fr33d0miz3r
 #131

yes herd psychology makes EW robust, and is just as important fundamentally as GDP for example. but which piece of information would you rather have - the company that you own stock in is about to burn down, or the company that you hold stock in has possibly completed a fifth wave?

I would want to know both.

By the way, I want to explain you how wave fundamentals work. For example, you have a business. Your company becomes successful.
What is a fifth wave of your company's success? Durig this wave you are delusional, you are shouting "WOW!! Such success!! We are the greatest! No one can beat us!! Wow!"

At this time your competitors (for example) are watching you and getting evil or annoyed or planning something bad for you. At one moment (when Fib timer triggers) they decide to start real actions against you. Something *bad* for your company is happening and stock of your company burns down.

Does Bitcoin have "competitors"/enemies who are just still "watching" now? Of course: banks, governments, hackers etc.
Does Bitcoin have "holders" who are shouting "Wow! Bitcoin is successful! F*ck you bankers!" - of course.
I think it's time to trigger "the Fib timer" soon.

Thanks to Bitcoin Foundation that does great lobby to "soften the blow" in the future.
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April 19, 2014, 08:05:08 AM
 #132

yes herd psychology makes EW robust, and is just as important fundamentally as GDP for example. but which piece of information would you rather have - the company that you own stock in is about to burn down, or the company that you hold stock in has possibly completed a fifth wave?

I would want to know both.

By the way, I want to explain you how wave fundamentals work. For example, you have a business. Your company becomes successful.
What is a fifth wave of your company's success? Durig this wave you are delusional, you are shouting "WOW!! Such success!! We are the greatest! No one can beat us!! Wow!"

At this time your competitors (for example) are watching you and getting evil or annoyed or planning something bad for you. At one moment (when Fib timer triggers) they decide to start real actions against you. Something *bad* for your company is happening and stock of your company burns down.

Does Bitcoin have "competitors"/enemies who are just still "watchig" now? Of course: banks, governments, hackers etc.
Does Bitcoin have "holders" who are shouting "Wow! Bitcoin is successful! F*ck you bankers!" - of course.
I think it's time to trigger "the Fib timer" soon.

Thanks to Bitcoin Foundation that does great lobby to "soften the blow" in the future.

yes, laws of physics play out every where, and they are reflected on the charts. but I would rather know the fundamentals. am impulse might precede a third wave, or it might be the end of a cycle, or it might be an A wave. only with fundamentals can we know which one it is.

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April 19, 2014, 08:09:29 AM
 #133

yes, laws of physics play out every where, and they are reflected on the charts. but I would rather know the fundamentals. am impulse might precede a third wave, or it might be the end of a cycle, or it might be an A wave. only with fundamentals can we know which one it is.

Agreed, but you should rather know both the fundamentals and the waves. And you should know all possibilities for the future waves. That would allow you to define possibilities for future fundamental events.
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April 19, 2014, 08:10:40 AM
 #134

yes, laws of physics play out every where, and they are reflected on the charts. but I would rather know the fundamentals. am impulse might precede a third wave, or it might be the end of a cycle, or it might be an A wave. only with fundamentals can we know which one it is.

Agreed, but you should rather know both the fundamentals and waves. And you should know all possibilities for future waves. That would allow you to define possibilities for future fundamental events.

yep yep I agree with that. lets watch the this blow out fifth  Grin

fr33d0miz3r
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April 19, 2014, 08:13:54 AM
 #135

Nice weekend pump Wink
Btw, the wave 2 lasted 35 hours and the wave 4 lasted 70 hours (35*2). So it seems our impulse counts are correct. But I expect a runup to 700 (not 540-560) during this wave. If we fail to break 200-day and 100-day EMA, we are not reversed.
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April 19, 2014, 08:27:58 AM
 #136

Finally an impulse up. Hourly candle looks very similar to the one from $409 to $475 on the first wave of iii up.

.... many of us here believe this is wave V. can you please illustrate iii wave interpretation?

We are in agreement on the count - refer to my previous chart.

This is what I meant with the other comment.

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April 19, 2014, 11:23:26 AM
 #137

Finally an impulse up. Hourly candle looks very similar to the one from $409 to $475 on the first wave of iii up.

.... many of us here believe this is wave V. can you please illustrate iii wave interpretation?

We are in agreement on the count - refer to my previous chart.

This is what I meant with the other comment.

sorry I misread your post. glad we all agree! this is a powerful reading.

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April 19, 2014, 11:27:43 AM
 #138

Primary wave took 1.5 days to complete, third wave took 2.5 days to complete. how many days will fifth wave take to complete?

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April 19, 2014, 01:07:06 PM
 #139

Primary wave took 1.5 days to complete, third wave took 2.5 days to complete. how many days will fifth wave take to complete?

Probably 2.5+1.5 = 4 days or (2.5+4.5)*1.618 = 6.5 days.
Or: 2.5-1.5 = 1 day.

But now I'm not sure we will continue going up.
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April 19, 2014, 03:17:03 PM
 #140

Finally an impulse up. Hourly candle looks very similar to the one from $409 to $475 on the first wave of iii up.

.... many of us here believe this is wave V. can you please illustrate iii wave interpretation?

We are in agreement on the count - refer to my previous chart.

This is what I meant with the other comment.



yea even the pattern before those 2 boxes looks similar if you take out magnitude of the swings
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