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Author Topic: CryptoWaves - Elliott Wave Analysis Blog  (Read 29073 times)
chessnut
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April 16, 2014, 11:56:29 AM
 #61

interesting the EMAs....

I dont really care if this is v/III or iii/III. Im going to look for consolidation for about a day or two, then wave V will take to to 580, 620, who knows. but probably less than 800  Cheesy
critical levels are 483 and 450. if it passes 450, that fucks things up a bit.



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fr33d0miz3r
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April 16, 2014, 12:20:50 PM
 #62

yes, it's compatible with my EMAs.

Light-green line (15-day EMA) usually provides strong support when we are above it.
Also 10-day EMA (red line), 300-day EMA (at $464, I don't know how to call this color in English  Cheesy) and $474 level based on previous crashes and Gann's Square of 9 - they are all together give us the strongest support. If we break them - the downtrend will continue.

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April 16, 2014, 12:44:59 PM
 #63



any thoughts on this?

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April 16, 2014, 12:51:27 PM
 #64

any thoughts on this?

In my last post.

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April 16, 2014, 12:53:52 PM
 #65

any thoughts on this?

In my last post.

I see.... deep correction possible aye.

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April 16, 2014, 12:59:06 PM
 #66

well I think that this is the end of wave three, but not yet the primary. I just dont see a wave iv yet.
In this case, the biggest test of support we can face now is 439 - wave i overlap, and 387 (H&S + end of price history before extremes)

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April 16, 2014, 01:08:43 PM
 #67

This 5-wave sequence may be wave 1. In this case correction (wave 2) is possible to reach previous low of 340 or slightly higher.
Let's watch how the corrective zigzag wave unfolds.

P.S. What's for this being end of wave 3 - according to the rules, it always subdivides into an impulse, never a diagonal. So it's more likely we have completed major wave 1.

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April 16, 2014, 01:14:44 PM
 #68

but the waves do not overlap, so it is ambiguous. it may be a wave iii and impulse and have diagonal features.

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April 16, 2014, 01:18:31 PM
 #69

but the waves do not overlap, so it is ambiguous. it may be a wave iii and impulse and have diagonal features.

Wave 4 does not overlap wave 1. I am talking about wave 2 (which is A-B-C zigzag on my chart). It could not move below wave 1 start, but it may retrace it almost completely.
Also seems like we got triangle forming.



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April 16, 2014, 02:54:48 PM
 #70

Indeed, 5 waves are complete. It is also unknown if it's a 3 or C, but a completed larger degree wave-1 it is not.

I still like this pair of counts. The green line is the Elliott Wave Oscillator... look it up and recheck my chart.

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April 16, 2014, 06:03:55 PM
 #71

Don't you think there are too many extensions for wave 3? I incline to the count where it's divided between waves 3 and 5, especially because fifth forms ending diagonal.

Also, if it drops below 470 it still plays as wave II unless it crosses end of wave I. This is where we have to start worrying.

Looked up Elliott Wave Oscillator. So it's simply difference between 5 and 35. I don't trust it much. It also shows 3 waves up and 5 waves down in the beginning of this particular example during the clear uptrend...

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April 16, 2014, 06:16:09 PM
 #72

Don't you think there are too many extensions for wave 3? I incline to the count where it's divided between waves 3 and 5, especially because fifth forms ending diagonal.

Also, if it drops below 470 it still plays as wave II unless it crosses end of wave I. This is where we have to start worrying.

Looked up Elliott Wave Oscillator. So it's simply difference between 5 and 35. I don't trust it much. It also shows 3 waves up and 5 waves down in the beginning of this particular example during the clear uptrend...

That first down is the divergence signaling the 5th of I. So there are actually 3down. Same with the extended III. Divergence at the top
The way to use it is like this:
4th wave returns to zero. Scale is on the left
3/5 divergence as a MACD is used to find divergences.

Both are are present



As always, time frame changes depending on the degree you are counting

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April 16, 2014, 06:48:55 PM
 #73

I'm more and more convinced that there will be the 5th wave, because we are still sitting at ~510, right on the latest broken resistance (which is now support) and StochRSI on 4h and 1h are going to become oversold already.
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April 16, 2014, 07:01:28 PM
 #74

Thanks for pointing out the missing data Rynindaclem. What charting service is that you are using?

Since price held $475, I am still looking for wave iii to complete in the $560 area.  The negative divergence on the 15 minute chart noted in my post last night foretold the short term drop nicely.
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April 16, 2014, 07:05:57 PM
 #75

Thanks for pointing out the missing data Rynindaclem. What charting service is that you are using?

BitcoinWisdom it seems
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April 16, 2014, 08:03:25 PM
Last edit: April 16, 2014, 08:24:08 PM by fr33d0miz3r
 #76

Guys, what do you think about long term EW counts?

This?



Or this?




I prefer the first variant, because:
1. The wave from July/August 2013 seems to be corrective (I can't recognize full 1-2-3-4-5 structure);
2. That July/August wave wasn't confirmed by other cryptocurrenices (Litecoin was still in a downtrend at the same time), so this is the reason to think that it was rather a wave D of the triangle then a motive wave 1.
3. In this variant growth of the wave III = growth of the wave I. Wave I: from $0.06 to $31.6 = 527x. Wave III: from $2 to $1160 = 580x. It would mean that we are about to start the extended wave V, which growth would be (580+527)*1.618 = 1791x. $340*1791 = target  $600,000.


If that, its route would look like this:





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April 16, 2014, 08:19:10 PM
 #77

Only one thing i need to know is where we are going next 615 or 470.)
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April 16, 2014, 08:21:33 PM
 #78

Thanks for pointing out the missing data Rynindaclem. What charting service is that you are using?

Since price held $475, I am still looking for wave iii to complete in the $560 area.  The negative divergence on the 15 minute chart noted in my post last night foretold the short term drop nicely.

I use Sierrachart level 3 data, but there is a $10/month bitcoin only data service

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April 16, 2014, 08:25:23 PM
 #79

For long term I have a less optimistic view.

Wave (5) would be equal to (1) in price percentage terms so we should expect a 3.6x increase from the current low.

Assuming 339 was the bottom, we'd be looking at a truncated 5th which would be followed by a long corrective trend that could take us all the way down to ~$135 or even $70.



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April 16, 2014, 08:26:32 PM
 #80

Guys, what do you think about long term EW counts?

This?



Or this?




I prefer the first variant, because:
1. The wave from July/August 2013 seems to be corrective (I can't recognize full 1-2-3-4-5 structure);
2. That July/August wave wasn't confirmed by other cryptocurrenices (Litecoin was still in a downtrend at the same time), so this is the reason to think that it was rather a wave D of the triangle then a motive wave 1.
3. In this variant growth of the wave III = growth of the wave I. Wave I: from $0.06 to $31.6 = 527x. Wave III: from $2 to $1160 = 580x. It would mean that we are about to start the extended wave V, which growth would be (580+527)*1.618 = 1791x. $340*1791 = target  $600,000.


If that, its route would look like this:







The first one is my primary long-term count

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