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 Author Topic: CryptoWaves - Elliott Wave Analysis Blog  (Read 29075 times)
fr33d0miz3r
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 April 16, 2014, 08:31:24 PM

There is another variant, more bearish:

In this case it would mean that we have finished the whole cycle and entered long term correction to 70-135.
But we still haven't broken the long term trend channel, so I will consider this variant only if/when we break the trend.
Right now we touched the trendline at 339 and bounced from it.
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fr33d0miz3r
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 April 16, 2014, 08:39:28 PM

And my counts regarding the finished correction.

I can see that it's completely finished, wave A = wave C = -67%. Also wave C has 1-2-3-4-5 structure, where wave 2 = the wave 4 by time (6 days both), and wave 5 = wave 1 + wave 3 by time: 16 days + 23 days = 39 days.

RyNinDaCleM
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Legen -wait for it- dary

 April 16, 2014, 10:14:44 PM

The first one is my primary long-term count

Correction, My primary count is more like the one posted below;

For long term I have a less optimistic view.

Wave (5) would be equal to (1) in price percentage terms so we should expect a 3.6x increase from the current low.

Assuming 339 was the bottom, we'd be looking at a truncated 5th which would be followed by a long corrective trend that could take us all the way down to ~\$135 or even \$70.

I don't see how this is less optimistic. It shows that there is yet another 3 then the 5 to play out yet.

And my counts regarding the finished correction.

I can see that it's completely finished, wave A = wave C = -67%. Also wave C has 1-2-3-4-5 structure, where wave 2 = the wave 4 by time (6 days both), and wave 5 = wave 1 + wave 3 by time: 16 days + 23 days = 39 days.

Bitcoin tends to count like commodities. Whereas 5ths are VERY extended. Sometimes as much as 2.61x wave 1+3. Very rarely (and usually only on intraday impulses) does the 5==1 in length. I just disregard that guide line for Bitcoin.

The 5 of C can  also be counted this way:

This is just to show that nothing is for certain until invalidation occurs.

Sorry for the long post, I just got home from work, so I was unable to do a lot from my phone.

chessnut
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 April 17, 2014, 12:29:03 AM

possible short scalp for the day, or long entry target. buying all I can at 480 - 500.

fr33d0miz3r
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 April 17, 2014, 12:36:03 AM

possible short scalp for the day, or long entry target. buying all I can at 480 - 500.

I'm buying only after breaking the 200 days EMA (540 now).
chessnut
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 April 17, 2014, 01:43:03 AMLast edit: April 17, 2014, 11:11:25 AM by chessnut

here is a better chart.

I believe we have just seen the 480 extreme tested and support is strong. I bought at 488.

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 April 17, 2014, 05:31:52 AM

right! here is a shot.

Queeq
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 April 17, 2014, 11:33:22 AMLast edit: April 17, 2014, 12:26:42 PM by Queeq

All right, drop came a little late of what I predicted and not so deep.

Still, we can drop further if price breaks 460 down. But a scenario where we are at the end of bigger wave 2 plays great. It would become even more likely if we go above 500. I guess we'll have some obstacles around 520-550 and if we exit that area the following rise must be strong.

Python backtesting and bot script at Github
Development halted due to other priorities.
chessnut
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 April 17, 2014, 11:37:54 AM

Nice work. I just got back in at 488, but I'd feel lucky if I have in fact just nailed the bottom. wht concerns me is that the next obstacle after 480 is quite low down, but then again, 480 is pretty tough support. This is a very good risk/rewad set up.

fr33d0miz3r
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 April 17, 2014, 09:22:28 PM

I know, a wedge can't be a corrective wave by EW rules, but traditional TA says there are wedges as continuation patterns.
What do you guys think about this?

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 April 17, 2014, 09:51:49 PM

I know, a wedge can't be a corrective wave by EW rules, but traditional TA says there are wedges as continuation patterns.
What do you guys think about this?

I'm not an expert, but even to me the decline since the last ATH is looking like a declining wedge. I noticed it quite some time ago. There seems to be some good prospects no matter what kind af analysis technique you are trying to apply, so let's hope EW and TA aggregate and lead us to the next bubble.

MCTRL_751 >   END OF LINE
chessnut
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 April 17, 2014, 09:53:10 PM

fr33d0miz3r
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 April 17, 2014, 10:02:06 PM

RyNinDaCleM, how can a wedge act as a wave A according to EW? I thought it could be only a wave 5 or C.
fr33d0miz3r
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 April 17, 2014, 10:25:16 PM

StochRSI on hourly chart is already overbought, so I think we can't go up right now. Maybe we'll have another leg down, something like this:

chessnut
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 April 17, 2014, 10:36:34 PM

fr33d0miz3r, I might have agreed, but do you know the rule about IV(iv/iii) A fourth wave following a third wave will tend to turn around within the proximity of the fourth wave of one lower fractal.

Look at my chart above. it's almost exact.

I wish I could help you about your other question, but I dont know all the details.

RyNinDaCleM
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Legen -wait for it- dary

 April 17, 2014, 11:39:18 PM

RyNinDaCleM, how can a wedge act as a wave A according to EW? I thought it could be only a wave 5 or C.

It would be what is known as a leading diagonal. It can be an A or a 1. It has a structure similar to an impulse (5-3-5-3-5) except it usually has overlapping 1 and 4 waves.

I deleted my post because it's not technically a wedge by EW standards since the 1 makes a lower low than the 3

fr33d0miz3r
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 April 18, 2014, 12:02:41 AM

RyNinDaCleM, how can a wedge act as a wave A according to EW? I thought it could be only a wave 5 or C.

It would be what is known as a leading diagonal. It can be an A or a 1. It has a structure similar to an impulse (5-3-5-3-5) except it usually has overlapping 1 and 4 waves.

I deleted my post because it's not technically a wedge by EW standards since the 1 makes a lower low than the 3

Also, it's not a 5-3-5-3-5 structure.
But the daily candle of the end of the wave 1 closed exactly on the lower trend line.
chessnut
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 April 18, 2014, 12:41:00 AMLast edit: April 18, 2014, 01:01:45 AM by chessnut

What does everybody think about this?

.... seems a bit bearish atm, but then again, fifth waves are weak. break under 455 would invalidate the whole thing.

fr33d0miz3r
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 April 18, 2014, 12:47:43 AM

I guess we are going to test the \$464 level (to test the support of broken 300-day EMA, also the 10-day EMA is there) before breaking the \$540 level (200-day EMA). Once we break \$540, we won't can dive under it.

chessnut
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 April 18, 2014, 12:55:21 AM

If you think 450-470 is iv/III then I think that's a pretty good reading.

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