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Author Topic: CryptoWaves - Elliott Wave Analysis Blog  (Read 29073 times)
CryptoWaves
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April 03, 2014, 07:18:02 AM
Last edit: April 16, 2014, 07:12:45 AM by CryptoWaves
 #1

I finished the first post at my new Elliott Wave analysis blog for cryptocurrencies. The first post covers the daily chart for Bitcoin.

If you are interested in Bitcoin Elliott Wave counts, then please check out my post. Let me know what you think.

http://www.cryptowaves.com/bitcoin-usd-april-2nd-2014/

Follow @CryptoWaves on Twitter. I will tweet when I make a new post.


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April 03, 2014, 07:36:42 AM
 #2

I finished the first post at my new Elliott Wave analysis blog for cryptocurrencies. The first post covers the daily chart for Bitcoin.

If you are interested in Bitcoin Elliott Wave counts, then please check out my post. Let me know what you think.

http://www.cryptowaves.com/bitcoin-usd-april-2nd-2014/

Follow @CryptoWaves on Twitter. I will tweet when I make a new post.

Kind of neat was reading it not from an Elliott Wave View but I can see the argument
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/12/19/bitcoin-may-be-following-this-classic-bubble-stages-chart/
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April 03, 2014, 08:15:26 AM
 #3

But shouldn't wave C be at least as big as wave A? That would mean we could see prices going down to $100!

Wave 4 cannot correct lower than 100% of Wave 3, i.e. $63. While it's true that Wave 4 shouldn't overlap Wave 1, that rule is only valid for non-leveraged cash markets. I'm not sure if that applies to Bitcoin though...  Huh
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April 03, 2014, 08:23:50 AM
 #4

But shouldn't wave C be at least as big as wave A? That would mean we could see prices going down to $100!

Wave 4 cannot correct lower than 100% of Wave 3, i.e. $63. While it's true that Wave 4 shouldn't overlap Wave 1, that rule is only valid for non-leveraged cash markets. I'm not sure if that applies to Bitcoin though...  Huh

Wave 4 cannot overlap with Wave 1 unless there is a leading diagonal or ending diagonal pattern, which are rare occurrences. This rule cannot be broken. If there is a Wave 4 into Wave 1 violation with a drop below $260 then my count needs to be adjusted.

Wave C being equal to wave A is a guideline, rather than a strict rule.
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April 03, 2014, 08:49:40 AM
 #5

But shouldn't wave C be at least as big as wave A? That would mean we could see prices going down to $100!

Wave 4 cannot correct lower than 100% of Wave 3, i.e. $63. While it's true that Wave 4 shouldn't overlap Wave 1, that rule is only valid for non-leveraged cash markets. I'm not sure if that applies to Bitcoin though...  Huh

Wave 4 cannot overlap with Wave 1 unless there is a leading diagonal or ending diagonal pattern, which are rare occurrences. This rule cannot be broken. If there is a Wave 4 into Wave 1 violation with a drop below $260 then my count needs to be adjusted.

Wave C being equal to wave A is a guideline, rather than a strict rule.

Ok makes sense. In that case we should probably be looking at the 78.6% retracement of Wave 3 first which coincides with the $300 mark on Bitstamp.
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April 05, 2014, 02:21:37 AM
 #6

New post made providing details on the Bitcoin Hourly chart. Happy trading, everyone!  Cool

http://www.cryptowaves.com/bitcoin-usd-hourly-april-2014/

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April 05, 2014, 02:50:48 AM
 #7

You should consider using a log scale to see the waves and your labeling a bit better. 

Also, have you taken price action before the beginning of your chart into account?

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April 05, 2014, 03:24:38 AM
Last edit: April 05, 2014, 03:43:23 AM by CryptoWaves
 #8

You should consider using a log scale to see the waves and your labeling a bit better.  

Also, have you taken price action before the beginning of your chart into account?

The price data that I have on TradeView goes back to August 18th, 2011. I took everything going back to there into account (measured the waves and fib ratios all the way back there as well). Is this when BitStamp opened? If you know of any chart data that precedes this date, let me know.

At Bitcoin's current price level, the hourly chart is the most important. I have that mapped pretty well. Providing a log scale chart would be useful at some point. I'll work on that after studying the log chart section in my EWave book.
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April 05, 2014, 03:44:47 AM
 #9


The price data that I have on TradeView goes back to August 18th, 2011. I took everything going back to there into account. Is this when BitStamp opened? If you know of any chart data that precedes this date, let me know.

Yes bitstamp data goes back to near that time.  Mt gox data goes back further, showing a couple of earlier bubbles and the 2011 crash.  Im not sure how you could combine the data but this chart may help for reference:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg2920ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl

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April 05, 2014, 04:46:38 AM
 #10

You should consider using a log scale to see the waves and your labeling a bit better.  

Also, have you taken price action before the beginning of your chart into account?

The price data that I have on TradeView goes back to August 18th, 2011. I took everything going back to there into account (measured the waves and fib ratios all the way back there as well). Is this when BitStamp opened? If you know of any chart data that precedes this date, let me know.

At Bitcoin's current price level, the hourly chart is the most important. I have that mapped pretty well. Providing a log scale chart would be useful at some point. I'll work on that after studying the log chart section in my EWave book.

How do you figure that $260 was wave-1?


Maybe (more likely, imo) $260 was the 3 of the $1163's III

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April 05, 2014, 05:06:45 AM
 #11

How do you figure that $260 was wave-1?


Maybe (more likely, imo) $260 was the 3 of the $1163's III

It was my initial read on the chart. The large drop after the $260 top looks like a Wave 2 due to the deep retracement, though it does seem short in time to be a P2 wave. We both agree that the $1163 top is a large degree wave 3 top. I may make adjustments based on the Gox data from 2010, though I don't feel that it changes the current count on the double zig zag W-X-Y retracement.
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April 05, 2014, 05:19:15 AM
 #12

How do you figure that $260 was wave-1?


Maybe (more likely, imo) $260 was the 3 of the $1163's III

It was my initial read on the chart. The large drop after the $260 top looks like a Wave 2 due to the deep retracement, though it does seem short in time to be a P2 wave. We both agree that the $1163 top is a large degree wave 3 top. I may make adjustments based on the Gox data from 2010, though I don't feel that it changes the current count on the double zig zag W-X-Y retracement.

The main reason I was pointing that out was because a retrace below $260 doesn't really invalidate the larger count (although, it will be perceived as very bearish by many, since the previous ATH...blablabla) And as long as this is not the super cycle [II], your shorter term count is as plausible as one of mine where it's an ABC and we are in iv of 5 of C right now.

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April 10, 2014, 07:49:19 AM
 #13

Analysis holding up nicely. Let's see how low we go.

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April 10, 2014, 03:28:03 PM
 #14

CW, on your hourly count the (5) target is shown as 382.86. But we just hit 382.70 on stamp! You're going to have to do better  Cheesy
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April 10, 2014, 04:58:17 PM
 #15

Please criticize:


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April 11, 2014, 05:25:11 AM
 #16

I don't have time for a chart update right now, but I'll throw a quick update here.

Wave (4)-C-[Y] ended at $465. This puts new targets for the end of (5)-C-[Y] between $360 and $295. Price already hit $339.79, so that could be the end of wave (5). Full confirmation that price is in an uptrend (based on this wave count) will not happen until we rise above $465, the wave (4) high.

Caution is advised to the long side until price rises above $465, but downside risk is limited to around $300 at the same time. Could stay in the $465 - $300 range for the short term.

Analysis holding up nicely. Let's see how low we go.
CW, on your hourly count the (5) target is shown as 382.86. But we just hit 382.70 on stamp! You're going to have to do better  Cheesy

Thanks, hope everyone has found the initial posts useful.  Cheesy


Queeq, would love to consider other E-Wave counts. It is always good to be aware of other wave count possibilities in case the primary wave count fails. There's too many labels on that one chart to read it clearly and I don't have the time at the moment, though. Hopefully will get to it this weekend.
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April 11, 2014, 06:21:31 AM
 #17


Very nice chart Queeq - the last wave was a beautiful buy opportunity.

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April 11, 2014, 06:28:18 AM
 #18

I'm sure I missed something. I guess the last big A-B-C count is incorrect considering B felt far beyond previous wave 5. Looks like it's motive wave.

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April 11, 2014, 11:06:40 PM
 #19

I'm sure I missed something. I guess the last big A-B-C count is incorrect considering B felt far beyond previous wave 5. Looks like it's motive wave.

I think that what is important is that we were offered a terminating five wave at lows subject to rapid reversal, and a clear mind to take the opportunity.

Funny how the reversal is attributed to news, when it was common knowledge that china never wanted to 'ban' bitcoin. It is just that news moves the market only when speculators are vulnerable (shorts/longs to squeeze). Until that point of panic, speculators had been moaning about how the good news never moves the market, but the bad news always crashes the market..... well that's because speculators were by majority long, and more importantly, subject to panic.

I like your chart. I dont think you need to be critical of the forecast, because I don't think that is what EW really does. we are just looking for junctures.

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April 12, 2014, 09:23:29 PM
 #20


I like your chart. I dont think you need to be critical of the forecast, because I don't think that is what EW really does. we are just looking for junctures.

Actually, to an extent, that is exactly what EW does. EW shows what is possible to happen next (granted you can have many differing alternatives, though). If there are 5 clear, non-overlapping waves down, then up is the next likely direction in either a five wave 1 or A, OR a 3 wave ABC. The fibo relationship to the previous move can give clues as to which one it is.

As movements happen, you get a few different counts. Then you start checking for invalidation and readjusting your counts until the picture becomes clearer. Counts are rarely perfect on the first try!

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April 12, 2014, 10:24:41 PM
 #21


I like your chart. I dont think you need to be critical of the forecast, because I don't think that is what EW really does. we are just looking for junctures.

Actually, to an extent, that is exactly what EW does. EW shows what is possible to happen next (granted you can have many differing alternatives, though). If there are 5 clear, non-overlapping waves down, then up is the next likely direction in either a five wave 1 or A, OR a 3 wave ABC. The fibo relationship to the previous move can give clues as to which one it is.

As movements happen, you get a few different counts. Then you start checking for invalidation and readjusting your counts until the picture becomes clearer. Counts are rarely perfect on the first try!

yeah, you said it. We can use it for forecasting, but it is ambiguous. Our count is also ambiguous. A lot of people would laugh at that, but the other day I was offered the chance to buy at 355 using EW. I dont think any other TA would have served me so well.

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April 13, 2014, 07:08:50 AM
 #22

I don't have time for a chart update right now, but I'll throw a quick update here.

Wave (4)-C-[Y] ended at $465. This puts new targets for the end of (5)-C-[Y] between $360 and $295. Price already hit $339.79, so that could be the end of wave (5). Full confirmation that price is in an uptrend (based on this wave count) will not happen until we rise above $465, the wave (4) high.

Caution is advised to the long side until price rises above $465, but downside risk is limited to around $300 at the same time. Could stay in the $465 - $300 range for the short term.

I propose a slightly modified count. I have a different count for waves 3 & 4 which would push the ceiling up to ~$510 for confirmation that we are in an uptrend. At this point I am still inclined towards another X wave that will take us to $500 before bringing us back down to the low $300s and possibly even the $250-300 range sometime in May.



Feedback is welcome.
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April 13, 2014, 08:26:11 AM
 #23

Looks reasonable. And now we have triangle as wave B. Looks like we are going to have wave C upwards that will end I guess around 500. This would confirm correction and down we go.

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April 13, 2014, 08:28:08 AM
 #24

Here is my latest count.


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April 13, 2014, 10:05:48 AM
 #25

Looks reasonable. And now we have triangle as wave B. Looks like we are going to have wave C upwards that will end I guess around 500. This would confirm correction and down we go.

Yep, the B wave should take us near 400 before the C wave up. This should play out during the next 2-3 days.

Btw, your charts are quite hard to read. Sometimes making them simpler is better, no need to go into all the tiny details. But cool charts anyway Smiley
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April 13, 2014, 10:32:42 AM
 #26



my software sucks for labeling, but Im sure y'all can see that this lil wave here actually meets the criteria of a 5/primary wave UP.

third wave not the smallest, fourth wave wedge, and no overlapping. fractals are fairly clear.

being the end of a larger cycle, This correction (reversal!) should last quite a long time. I doubt that it is merely a correction because (unless it forms a wedge) it will break upwards out of the larger cycle wedge in the time that it needs to consolidate. today, it would need to break 510 to get out of the wedge. In a weeks time, it would only have to break 480 to escape from the wedge.

what are the fundamental arguments that this is only a correction? I would have expected a reversal upwards by the 14th as a critical fundamental date.

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April 13, 2014, 02:32:05 PM
 #27

Btw, your charts are quite hard to read. Sometimes making them simpler is better, no need to go into all the tiny details. But cool charts anyway Smiley

Thanks, I'll make them simpler. This was just a working copy that I urged to show Smiley


my software sucks for labeling, but Im sure y'all can see that this lil wave here actually meets the criteria of a 5/primary wave UP.

third wave not the smallest, fourth wave wedge, and no overlapping. fractals are fairly clear.

being the end of a larger cycle, This correction (reversal!) should last quite a long time. I doubt that it is merely a correction because (unless it forms a wedge) it will break upwards out of the larger cycle wedge in the time that it needs to consolidate. today, it would need to break 510 to get out of the wedge. In a weeks time, it would only have to break 480 to escape from the wedge.

what are the fundamental arguments that this is only a correction? I would have expected a reversal upwards by the 14th as a critical fundamental date.

Use tradingview.com, there are lots of free functions. It's enough for almost everything.

We are not sure this is the end of large cycle, aren't we? Smiley

It still fits theory about it being wave a (subdividing into 5 waves) and sideways being wave b which is also typical for it. Waves 2 are usually more steep. Moreover, it's kind of triangle there which appears almost always in waves 4 or B.

For it to become new uptrend I believe it must reliably break 600.

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April 13, 2014, 10:13:11 PM
 #28

Queeq,

The price has almost retraced 100% of the latest wave down, and will likely do so in the next C or III wave upwards. This would confirm that the last wave down was a fifth wave, terminating a larger cycle downwards. not necessarily a 6 mothly reversal, but this reaction off lows should give us a few weeks. I am arguing that in a few weeks time, this reaction will have little choice but to break the wedge running down from ATH, and that would be very bullish. This is reversal territory, after all.

On a smaller scale, we have a clear a-b-c off recent highs, 440 - 400. It seems to have hit a bottom within the reaction of the last bull run. this is really bullish. If the coming C wave up that we expect is more aggressive than the A wave, then it could easily be a third wave.

If we break 510, we have broken the wedge. I think that a target of 600 to establish an up trend is overkill.

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April 13, 2014, 10:44:13 PM
 #29



This is a powerful day trading long signal considering that B was a wedge (anticipates a terminal move) and the price has turned around after being rejected in the territory of a larger wedge.

What is a possible alternative count that does NOT go on to break 440?

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April 14, 2014, 04:25:19 AM
 #30



This is a powerful day trading long signal considering that B was a wedge (anticipates a terminal move) and the price has turned around after being rejected in the territory of a larger wedge.

What is a possible alternative count that does NOT go on to break 440?

Please don't take this the wrong way, as I'm not trying to be a dick Tongue
A triangle is a triangle and a wedge is a wedge. They are not interchangeable (though a wedge is a type of triangle) In EW, a wedge is ONLY found in a 1, 5, A or C. A wedge is an impulsive wave that shows weakness in the move, hence it is called either a leading or ending diagonal.
A triangle is a corrective wave which I am assuming you are referring to. Smiley

To answer your question...
This is a possible count that shows the top is in.


It is by no means the only count available, so don't take this as advice.

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April 14, 2014, 04:55:04 AM
Last edit: April 14, 2014, 05:10:21 AM by chessnut
 #31

RyNinDaCleM,

 Smiley Im here to listen.

.... I really thought that wedges and triangles were the same thing.... just different terms used to describe contracting volatility and liquidity in a range. maybe I have been fooled by non - EW analysts.

your analysis was certainly an alternative but not any more  Grin I dont go into that sort of detail, I find it doesn't help until I wish to execute. The problem I have with that analysis is that you couldnt justify it on an hourly scale.

At time of writing, this looks like a third wave coming, or an aggressive C wave. but it's a long way yet. we will see. what are your thoughts?

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April 14, 2014, 07:19:24 AM
 #32

If this is a C wave, it is very aggressive, and by rule of thumb maybe we should expect a 1:1 A:C ratio. this rally could take us to $500, threatening the wedge.

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April 14, 2014, 07:25:45 AM
 #33

If this is a C wave, it is very aggressive, and by rule of thumb maybe we should expect a 1:1 A:C ratio. this rally could take us to $500, threatening the wedge.

Yes, a 1:1 ratio is what we expect at this moment so we should be targeting the $500-510 level for the end of the wave. You can look at the previous ABC rise from 400 to 700 for pattern similarity.
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April 14, 2014, 07:27:57 AM
 #34

If this is a C wave, it is very aggressive, and by rule of thumb maybe we should expect a 1:1 A:C ratio. this rally could take us to $500, threatening the wedge.

Yes, a 1:1 ratio is what we expect at this moment so we should be targeting the $500-510 level for the end of the wave. You can look at the previous ABC rise from 400 to 700 for pattern similarity.

Also, a real possibility that this is the reversal we have been waiting for. if it breaks through 510, I think a wave iii interpretation is in line.

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April 14, 2014, 08:16:54 AM
 #35

Also, a real possibility that this is the reversal we have been waiting for. if it breaks through 510, I think a wave iii interpretation is in line.

Let's wait and see Smiley
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April 14, 2014, 08:53:40 AM
 #36

Well, it may be a start of new trend. Need to remake my analysis though. I'll post them later.

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April 14, 2014, 11:47:08 AM
 #37

RyNinDaCleM,

 Smiley Im here to listen.

.... I really thought that wedges and triangles were the same thing.... just different terms used to describe contracting volatility and liquidity in a range. maybe I have been fooled by non - EW analysts.

your analysis was certainly an alternative but not any more  Grin I dont go into that sort of detail, I find it doesn't help until I wish to execute. The problem I have with that analysis is that you couldnt justify it on an hourly scale.

At time of writing, this looks like a third wave coming, or an aggressive C wave. but it's a long way yet. we will see. what are your thoughts?

Yes, typically you would not just assume that overlapping waves are nested 1/2's (3rd wave extension) as I had labeled... That is why I validated it with my disclosure. Tongue

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April 15, 2014, 12:34:44 AM
 #38





so seems like we might see a five wave rally top off here. if it bounces off the wedge line, then an overall wave C interpretation is likely, and the rally would be postponed.

If we pass through the wedge, then I am still looking for a wave iii interpretation.

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April 15, 2014, 08:12:12 AM
 #39

love the post, where to next captain?
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April 15, 2014, 08:20:27 AM
 #40

some have said less flattering things about EW analysis, mine being no exception  Cheesy

where to next? up or down  Cheesy we are having a battle at 500. if we take out 500, this breaks the back of the bears for many reasons. I would assume a iii wave interpretation, and expect a rally to 600 in the coming days.

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April 15, 2014, 09:14:07 AM
Last edit: April 15, 2014, 09:41:46 AM by chessnut
 #41



This may be overly forward looking, but this is roughly what I am expecting in the coming days/weeks.

600 may put up a fight.

Correction may enter 400s again, but I think that 500 may become support.

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April 15, 2014, 09:42:05 AM
 #42

Could be, or we may have just topped at 509.

Let's see how this will plat out!

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April 15, 2014, 10:20:12 AM
 #43

Could be, or we may have just topped at 509.

Let's see how this will plat out!

Are you thinking of a C wave analysis?

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April 15, 2014, 11:47:22 AM
 #44

All right. This looks reasonable:



So if we are at the start of the new uptrend, I guess we are struggling at the end of subwave 1 of major wave. So now it looks like we going to have correction to somewhere around 450.



What confuses me is volume which is higher than usual. Upon reversal volume drops AFAIK.

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April 15, 2014, 11:51:47 AM
 #45

All right. This looks reasonable:



So if we are at the start of the new uptrend, I guess we are struggling at the end of subwave 1 of major wave. So now it looks like we going to have correction to somewhere around 450.



What confuses me is volume which is higher than usual. Upon reversal volume drops AFAIK.

So from your analysis sticking a limit order in around $450 looks like a solid plan right? I stupidly missed the sub $400 price waiting for funds to clear.
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April 15, 2014, 01:17:05 PM
 #46

..... sorry I read it wrong. you are saying this is wave I terminated. dont you think that wave II and IV are disproportionate?


Thanks for critics.
Yep, they are. But I fail to find another way to draw 5 waves here. Especially when they fit fibos.
We may assume that this is zigzag. Wave b then ends around 0.764 of previous wave 4 and wave c end around 1.618 previous wave 4. Also fits well.
To confirm this we should drop below 440. But it still could be wave 2 of major wave 1 retracing.

So, I don't know what is it.


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April 15, 2014, 01:27:01 PM
 #47

well we know that the wedge was a wave iv to some degree. price likes to turn around in wedge territory. I will set a buy target there. Hopefully this is not a wave C.... but that could be a valid reading.


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April 15, 2014, 08:53:21 PM
 #48



.... if this wedge play on to the upside, then I would assume my earlier interpretation is correct.



This may be overly forward looking, but this is roughly what I am expecting in the coming days/weeks.

600 may put up a fight.

Correction may enter 400s again, but I think that 500 may become support.


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April 16, 2014, 12:23:35 AM
 #49

..... sorry I read it wrong. you are saying this is wave I terminated. dont you think that wave II and IV are disproportionate?


Thanks for critics.
Yep, they are. But I fail to find another way to draw 5 waves here. Especially when they fit fibos.
We may assume that this is zigzag. Wave b then ends around 0.764 of previous wave 4 and wave c end around 1.618 previous wave 4. Also fits well.
To confirm this we should drop below 440. But it still could be wave 2 of major wave 1 retracing.

So, I don't know what is it.



Here is another option for your previous count. Has both bearish and bullish scenarios.


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April 16, 2014, 12:34:37 AM
 #50

I read that chart wrong the first time, deleted comment.

Really good chart, thanks. I hope to see all degrees of a primary wave kick off this new trend.

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April 16, 2014, 12:36:49 AM
 #51

What about this?

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April 16, 2014, 12:45:19 AM
 #52

Not very detailed BUT I LIKE IT  Grin fifth wave blow out FTW!

I have slightly lower expectations.

EDIT. btw, I dont think wave iii is over just yet. Looking for 540 at least.

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April 16, 2014, 01:08:56 AM
 #53

EDIT. btw, I dont think wave iii is over just yet. Looking for 540 at least.

agreed
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April 16, 2014, 01:15:53 AM
 #54

But as I see Bitcoin loves extended 5th waves, because of emotional traders.
So... What if this?  Cheesy

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April 16, 2014, 07:10:08 AM
Last edit: April 16, 2014, 07:39:44 AM by CryptoWaves
 #55

I made a new post. Head over to the site to check it out. I'll try to update more often if the chart needs adjustment. I was traveling and working over the previous weekend and I travel again soon, unfortunately.

http://www.cryptowaves.com/


It's great to see E-Wave counts and discussions presented by others. I try not to apply other people's counts to my charting, though.

Edit: Nice count there, chessnut  Wink
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April 16, 2014, 10:42:10 AM
 #56


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April 16, 2014, 10:55:14 AM
 #57

Just to point something out for those of you using tradingview. It is missing 2 days of data. The 12th and the 13th.

For comparison, here is a 1hr chart. The boxed area is not included on tradingview at the time of writing.

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April 16, 2014, 11:12:51 AM
 #58

Just to point something out for those of you using tradingview. It is missing 2 days of data. The 12th and the 13th.

For comparison, here is a 1hr chart. The boxed area is not included on tradingview at the time of writing.


 Shocked OMG. Thanks!
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April 16, 2014, 11:27:50 AM
 #59

yah I noticed something was wrong.....

so I think we just saw wave iv of III of the primary wave, hitting a bottom in that little wedge. super good support. we should top off wave III at maybe 550-560.

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April 16, 2014, 11:32:46 AM
 #60

yah I noticed something was wrong.....

so I think we just saw wave iv of III of the primary wave, hitting a bottom in that little wedge. super good support. we should top off wave III at maybe 550-560.

Look at how we are passing EMAs step by step  Smiley

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April 16, 2014, 11:56:29 AM
 #61

interesting the EMAs....

I dont really care if this is v/III or iii/III. Im going to look for consolidation for about a day or two, then wave V will take to to 580, 620, who knows. but probably less than 800  Cheesy
critical levels are 483 and 450. if it passes 450, that fucks things up a bit.



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April 16, 2014, 12:20:50 PM
 #62

yes, it's compatible with my EMAs.

Light-green line (15-day EMA) usually provides strong support when we are above it.
Also 10-day EMA (red line), 300-day EMA (at $464, I don't know how to call this color in English  Cheesy) and $474 level based on previous crashes and Gann's Square of 9 - they are all together give us the strongest support. If we break them - the downtrend will continue.

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April 16, 2014, 12:44:59 PM
 #63



any thoughts on this?

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April 16, 2014, 12:51:27 PM
 #64

any thoughts on this?

In my last post.

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April 16, 2014, 12:53:52 PM
 #65

any thoughts on this?

In my last post.

I see.... deep correction possible aye.

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April 16, 2014, 12:59:06 PM
 #66

well I think that this is the end of wave three, but not yet the primary. I just dont see a wave iv yet.
In this case, the biggest test of support we can face now is 439 - wave i overlap, and 387 (H&S + end of price history before extremes)

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April 16, 2014, 01:08:43 PM
 #67

This 5-wave sequence may be wave 1. In this case correction (wave 2) is possible to reach previous low of 340 or slightly higher.
Let's watch how the corrective zigzag wave unfolds.

P.S. What's for this being end of wave 3 - according to the rules, it always subdivides into an impulse, never a diagonal. So it's more likely we have completed major wave 1.

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April 16, 2014, 01:14:44 PM
 #68

but the waves do not overlap, so it is ambiguous. it may be a wave iii and impulse and have diagonal features.

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April 16, 2014, 01:18:31 PM
 #69

but the waves do not overlap, so it is ambiguous. it may be a wave iii and impulse and have diagonal features.

Wave 4 does not overlap wave 1. I am talking about wave 2 (which is A-B-C zigzag on my chart). It could not move below wave 1 start, but it may retrace it almost completely.
Also seems like we got triangle forming.



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April 16, 2014, 02:54:48 PM
 #70

Indeed, 5 waves are complete. It is also unknown if it's a 3 or C, but a completed larger degree wave-1 it is not.

I still like this pair of counts. The green line is the Elliott Wave Oscillator... look it up and recheck my chart.

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April 16, 2014, 06:03:55 PM
 #71

Don't you think there are too many extensions for wave 3? I incline to the count where it's divided between waves 3 and 5, especially because fifth forms ending diagonal.

Also, if it drops below 470 it still plays as wave II unless it crosses end of wave I. This is where we have to start worrying.

Looked up Elliott Wave Oscillator. So it's simply difference between 5 and 35. I don't trust it much. It also shows 3 waves up and 5 waves down in the beginning of this particular example during the clear uptrend...

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April 16, 2014, 06:16:09 PM
 #72

Don't you think there are too many extensions for wave 3? I incline to the count where it's divided between waves 3 and 5, especially because fifth forms ending diagonal.

Also, if it drops below 470 it still plays as wave II unless it crosses end of wave I. This is where we have to start worrying.

Looked up Elliott Wave Oscillator. So it's simply difference between 5 and 35. I don't trust it much. It also shows 3 waves up and 5 waves down in the beginning of this particular example during the clear uptrend...

That first down is the divergence signaling the 5th of I. So there are actually 3down. Same with the extended III. Divergence at the top
The way to use it is like this:
4th wave returns to zero. Scale is on the left
3/5 divergence as a MACD is used to find divergences.

Both are are present



As always, time frame changes depending on the degree you are counting

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April 16, 2014, 06:48:55 PM
 #73

I'm more and more convinced that there will be the 5th wave, because we are still sitting at ~510, right on the latest broken resistance (which is now support) and StochRSI on 4h and 1h are going to become oversold already.
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April 16, 2014, 07:01:28 PM
 #74

Thanks for pointing out the missing data Rynindaclem. What charting service is that you are using?

Since price held $475, I am still looking for wave iii to complete in the $560 area.  The negative divergence on the 15 minute chart noted in my post last night foretold the short term drop nicely.
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April 16, 2014, 07:05:57 PM
 #75

Thanks for pointing out the missing data Rynindaclem. What charting service is that you are using?

BitcoinWisdom it seems
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April 16, 2014, 08:03:25 PM
Last edit: April 16, 2014, 08:24:08 PM by fr33d0miz3r
 #76

Guys, what do you think about long term EW counts?

This?



Or this?




I prefer the first variant, because:
1. The wave from July/August 2013 seems to be corrective (I can't recognize full 1-2-3-4-5 structure);
2. That July/August wave wasn't confirmed by other cryptocurrenices (Litecoin was still in a downtrend at the same time), so this is the reason to think that it was rather a wave D of the triangle then a motive wave 1.
3. In this variant growth of the wave III = growth of the wave I. Wave I: from $0.06 to $31.6 = 527x. Wave III: from $2 to $1160 = 580x. It would mean that we are about to start the extended wave V, which growth would be (580+527)*1.618 = 1791x. $340*1791 = target  $600,000.


If that, its route would look like this:





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April 16, 2014, 08:19:10 PM
 #77

Only one thing i need to know is where we are going next 615 or 470.)
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April 16, 2014, 08:21:33 PM
 #78

Thanks for pointing out the missing data Rynindaclem. What charting service is that you are using?

Since price held $475, I am still looking for wave iii to complete in the $560 area.  The negative divergence on the 15 minute chart noted in my post last night foretold the short term drop nicely.

I use Sierrachart level 3 data, but there is a $10/month bitcoin only data service

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April 16, 2014, 08:25:23 PM
 #79

For long term I have a less optimistic view.

Wave (5) would be equal to (1) in price percentage terms so we should expect a 3.6x increase from the current low.

Assuming 339 was the bottom, we'd be looking at a truncated 5th which would be followed by a long corrective trend that could take us all the way down to ~$135 or even $70.



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April 16, 2014, 08:26:32 PM
 #80

Guys, what do you think about long term EW counts?

This?



Or this?




I prefer the first variant, because:
1. The wave from July/August 2013 seems to be corrective (I can't recognize full 1-2-3-4-5 structure);
2. That July/August wave wasn't confirmed by other cryptocurrenices (Litecoin was still in a downtrend at the same time), so this is the reason to think that it was rather a wave D of the triangle then a motive wave 1.
3. In this variant growth of the wave III = growth of the wave I. Wave I: from $0.06 to $31.6 = 527x. Wave III: from $2 to $1160 = 580x. It would mean that we are about to start the extended wave V, which growth would be (580+527)*1.618 = 1791x. $340*1791 = target  $600,000.


If that, its route would look like this:







The first one is my primary long-term count

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April 16, 2014, 08:31:24 PM
 #81

There is another variant, more bearish:



In this case it would mean that we have finished the whole cycle and entered long term correction to 70-135.
But we still haven't broken the long term trend channel, so I will consider this variant only if/when we break the trend.
Right now we touched the trendline at 339 and bounced from it.
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April 16, 2014, 08:39:28 PM
 #82

And my counts regarding the finished correction.

I can see that it's completely finished, wave A = wave C = -67%. Also wave C has 1-2-3-4-5 structure, where wave 2 = the wave 4 by time (6 days both), and wave 5 = wave 1 + wave 3 by time: 16 days + 23 days = 39 days.

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April 16, 2014, 10:14:44 PM
 #83




The first one is my primary long-term count

Correction, My primary count is more like the one posted below;

For long term I have a less optimistic view.

Wave (5) would be equal to (1) in price percentage terms so we should expect a 3.6x increase from the current low.

Assuming 339 was the bottom, we'd be looking at a truncated 5th which would be followed by a long corrective trend that could take us all the way down to ~$135 or even $70.





I don't see how this is less optimistic. It shows that there is yet another 3 then the 5 to play out yet. Wink

And my counts regarding the finished correction.

I can see that it's completely finished, wave A = wave C = -67%. Also wave C has 1-2-3-4-5 structure, where wave 2 = the wave 4 by time (6 days both), and wave 5 = wave 1 + wave 3 by time: 16 days + 23 days = 39 days.



Bitcoin tends to count like commodities. Whereas 5ths are VERY extended. Sometimes as much as 2.61x wave 1+3. Very rarely (and usually only on intraday impulses) does the 5==1 in length. I just disregard that guide line for Bitcoin. Tongue

The 5 of C can  also be counted this way:


This is just to show that nothing is for certain until invalidation occurs.

Sorry for the long post, I just got home from work, so I was unable to do a lot from my phone.

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April 17, 2014, 12:29:03 AM
 #84



possible short scalp for the day, or long entry target. buying all I can at 480 - 500.

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April 17, 2014, 12:36:03 AM
 #85

possible short scalp for the day, or long entry target. buying all I can at 480 - 500.

I'm buying only after breaking the 200 days EMA (540 now).
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April 17, 2014, 01:43:03 AM
Last edit: April 17, 2014, 11:11:25 AM by chessnut
 #86



here is a better chart.

I believe we have just seen the 480 extreme tested and support is strong. I bought at 488.

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April 17, 2014, 05:31:52 AM
 #87



right! here is a shot.

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April 17, 2014, 11:33:22 AM
Last edit: April 17, 2014, 12:26:42 PM by Queeq
 #88

All right, drop came a little late of what I predicted and not so deep.

Still, we can drop further if price breaks 460 down. But a scenario where we are at the end of bigger wave 2 plays great. It would become even more likely if we go above 500. I guess we'll have some obstacles around 520-550 and if we exit that area the following rise must be strong.


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April 17, 2014, 11:37:54 AM
 #89

Nice work. I just got back in at 488, but I'd feel lucky if I have in fact just nailed the bottom. wht concerns me is that the next obstacle after 480 is quite low down, but then again, 480 is pretty tough support. This is a very good risk/rewad set up.

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April 17, 2014, 09:22:28 PM
 #90

I know, a wedge can't be a corrective wave by EW rules, but traditional TA says there are wedges as continuation patterns.
What do you guys think about this?



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April 17, 2014, 09:51:49 PM
 #91

I know, a wedge can't be a corrective wave by EW rules, but traditional TA says there are wedges as continuation patterns.
What do you guys think about this?





I'm not an expert, but even to me the decline since the last ATH is looking like a declining wedge. I noticed it quite some time ago. There seems to be some good prospects no matter what kind af analysis technique you are trying to apply, so let's hope EW and TA aggregate and lead us to the next bubble.

MCTRL_751 >   END OF LINE
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April 17, 2014, 09:53:10 PM
 #92


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April 17, 2014, 10:02:06 PM
 #93

RyNinDaCleM, how can a wedge act as a wave A according to EW? I thought it could be only a wave 5 or C.
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April 17, 2014, 10:25:16 PM
 #94

StochRSI on hourly chart is already overbought, so I think we can't go up right now. Maybe we'll have another leg down, something like this:

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April 17, 2014, 10:36:34 PM
 #95

fr33d0miz3r, I might have agreed, but do you know the rule about IV(iv/iii) A fourth wave following a third wave will tend to turn around within the proximity of the fourth wave of one lower fractal.

Look at my chart above. it's almost exact.

I wish I could help you about your other question, but I dont know all the details.

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April 17, 2014, 11:39:18 PM
 #96

RyNinDaCleM, how can a wedge act as a wave A according to EW? I thought it could be only a wave 5 or C.

It would be what is known as a leading diagonal. It can be an A or a 1. It has a structure similar to an impulse (5-3-5-3-5) except it usually has overlapping 1 and 4 waves.

I deleted my post because it's not technically a wedge by EW standards since the 1 makes a lower low than the 3

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April 18, 2014, 12:02:41 AM
 #97

RyNinDaCleM, how can a wedge act as a wave A according to EW? I thought it could be only a wave 5 or C.

It would be what is known as a leading diagonal. It can be an A or a 1. It has a structure similar to an impulse (5-3-5-3-5) except it usually has overlapping 1 and 4 waves.

I deleted my post because it's not technically a wedge by EW standards since the 1 makes a lower low than the 3

Also, it's not a 5-3-5-3-5 structure.
But the daily candle of the end of the wave 1 closed exactly on the lower trend line.
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April 18, 2014, 12:41:00 AM
Last edit: April 18, 2014, 01:01:45 AM by chessnut
 #98



What does everybody think about this?

.... seems a bit bearish atm, but then again, fifth waves are weak. break under 455 would invalidate the whole thing.

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April 18, 2014, 12:47:43 AM
 #99

I guess we are going to test the $464 level (to test the support of broken 300-day EMA, also the 10-day EMA is there) before breaking the $540 level (200-day EMA). Once we break $540, we won't can dive under it.

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April 18, 2014, 12:55:21 AM
 #100

If you think 450-470 is iv/III then I think that's a pretty good reading.

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April 18, 2014, 12:58:00 AM
Last edit: April 18, 2014, 01:11:21 AM by fr33d0miz3r
 #101

If you think 450-470 is iv/III then I think that's a pretty good reading.

yep. So, if it works out, we gonna have a weekend pump, which is pretty good for closing the weekly candle  Wink




Also, every EW count should be compatible with important EMAs' support/resistance levels. It works very well for me.
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April 18, 2014, 01:18:48 AM
 #102

Nice chart. But now something to consider, bottom of wave iv is then very close to top of wave one. we should not expect pin point accuracy, so maybe in this case, we should prepare for a breach of 440. That would be very bearish. I would be wary of this only if 480 is broken.

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April 18, 2014, 01:22:12 AM
 #103

Nice chart. But now something to consider, bottom of wave iv is then very close to top of wave one. we should not expect pin point accuracy, so maybe in this case, we should prepare for a breach of 440. That would be very bearish. I would be wary of this only if 480 is broken.

But we should now have a great support at $464 (300 EMA), and going to $450 is not mandatory.

But if we break the $464 support, bear is our friend again.
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April 18, 2014, 01:24:37 AM
 #104

Nice chart. But now something to consider, bottom of wave iv is then very close to top of wave one. we should not expect pin point accuracy, so maybe in this case, we should prepare for a breach of 440. That would be very bearish. I would be wary of this only if 480 is broken.

But we should now have a great support at $464 (300 EMA). If we break it, then yes, bear is our friend now again.

yes we should, but our analysis will be tested within $20 range. if it hits 440 we should be prepared for that, it is not far away.

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April 18, 2014, 01:28:24 AM
 #105

How about this possible trendline? We are sitting on it right now  Grin Pump in 3... 2... 1...

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April 18, 2014, 01:33:18 AM
Last edit: April 18, 2014, 01:50:13 AM by chessnut
 #106

 Wink I like the way you are thinking  Grin

Pimped up my chart lol

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April 18, 2014, 01:45:04 AM
 #107

How about this: pump to $667 and then a correction to $540 which would be a 200 EMA support test and a 0.382 fib level.

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April 18, 2014, 01:55:35 AM
Last edit: April 18, 2014, 02:21:40 AM by fr33d0miz3r
 #108

a blow out fifth wave would make me a happy chappy  Grin

Sorry, we also have a 100-day EMA at 567. So, the projection below would be more correct, I guess.
Also, the end of 4th wave would be at 0.618 fib level in this case  Wink




AND: Pump to $700 and then a correction to 567 or 540 would draw us a big inverted H&S pattern on the daily, which would cause a massive panic buy  Grin

Something like this:

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April 18, 2014, 02:04:27 AM
 #109

hey, 1k wall on Stamp,  Shocked

which wall?
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April 18, 2014, 02:08:04 AM
 #110

... LOL its at $202.... ages ago. nvm.

Oh bitcoin you so crazy  Grin

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April 18, 2014, 02:10:15 AM
 #111

RyNinDaCleM, how can a wedge act as a wave A according to EW? I thought it could be only a wave 5 or C.

It would be what is known as a leading diagonal. It can be an A or a 1. It has a structure similar to an impulse (5-3-5-3-5) except it usually has overlapping 1 and 4 waves.

I deleted my post because it's not technically a wedge by EW standards since the 1 makes a lower low than the 3

Also, it's not a 5-3-5-3-5 structure.
But the daily candle of the end of the wave 1 closed exactly on the lower trend line.

That's what invalidates it! All waves must touch the line without breaking it. The only wave that can break the line is 5. That's called a throw-over. The same rules apply with triangles. The E wave can fall short or it can break the line as long as it doesn't go beyond the C.

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April 18, 2014, 04:43:35 AM
Last edit: April 18, 2014, 05:48:42 AM by fr33d0miz3r
 #112

If our bullish counts become invalidated, then we could see a wedge which acts as a wave C:



So, there could be a $266 retest.
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April 18, 2014, 06:14:06 AM
 #113

After a quiet and stagnant day, the bidding begins as expected  Grin I dont think we will need to worry about a 266 retest. I don't think that can happen.

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April 18, 2014, 06:21:38 AM
 #114

After a quiet and stagnant day, the bidding begins as expected  Grin I dont think we will need to worry about a 266 retest. I don't think that can happen.

But don't trade until we break the 200-day EMA. There is another huge bearish possibility:

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April 18, 2014, 06:23:08 AM
 #115

After a quiet and stagnant day, the bidding begins as expected  Grin I dont think we will need to worry about a 266 retest. I don't think that can happen.

But don't trade until we break the 200-day EMA

thats not my style  Cheesy i buy low with leading indicators. I would never buy into a fifth wave using a lagging indicator.

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April 18, 2014, 09:44:54 AM
 #116

The same bullish count for LTC is already invalidated.
Prepare for dump.
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April 18, 2014, 09:45:48 AM
 #117

Our bullish counts are already invalidated on LTCUSD.
Prepare for dump.

I noticed that  Undecided let go of my long and shorting to 465

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April 18, 2014, 08:00:46 PM
Last edit: April 18, 2014, 08:32:58 PM by CryptoWaves
 #118

Our bullish counts are already invalidated on LTCUSD.
Prepare for dump.

I noticed that  Undecided let go of my long and shorting to 465

Hourly bitstamp MACD just made a bullcross. Needs confirmation with another histogram bar above zero. Going to see if this produces a bounce.

Based on the fib ratios of the move up, I am still looking for a wave v move up to complete wave (1). The uptrend channel on the 15 minute chart was broken so I extended it with another. If it falls out of this new channel then I will revise the count.

Someone mentioned not buying for fifth waves earlier - I agree with this. It is better to try to catch a third wave move in either direction instead of playing a fifth wave.

Edit: Also note the positive divergence on the 15 min MACD with respect to (wrt for short) Bitcoin price.
Edit2: Had some incorrect calculations on my first 15 min chart. Updated.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/L4xrVkEv/
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April 18, 2014, 09:07:21 PM
 #119



fr33d0miz3r this was a good analysis. Im not worries about LTC so much, Im still bullish.

Cryptowaves, Im a scalper, I just took 490-480 and Im thinking of going long again. nice chart!

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April 19, 2014, 01:35:05 AM
 #120

Another long-term possibility:

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April 19, 2014, 03:14:16 AM
Last edit: April 19, 2014, 06:36:30 AM by chessnut
 #121

well fr33d0miz3r, it's a possibility, but Im not going to consider that analysis without a fundamental reason. Bitcoin is not an idle currency, and I believe that if it stalls it may collapse for good under speculative weight. the fundamentals say this is developing at an exponential pace, and I have to be bullish in the next 6 months. 266 retest is possible, but very unlikely if bitcoin is in fact on a path to succeed.

..... seems like we might see wave V unfold soon. though it will take days...

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April 19, 2014, 06:39:19 AM
 #122



wave V break out. good luck folks  Wink blow out fifth wave plz  Grin

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April 19, 2014, 06:49:48 AM
 #123

well fr33d0miz3r, it's a possibility, but Im not going to consider that analysis without a fundamental reason. Bitcoin is not an idle currency, and I believe that if it stalls it may collapse for good under speculative weight. the fundamentals say this is developing at an exponential pace, and I have to be bullish in the next 6 months. 266 retest is possible, but very unlikely if bitcoin is in fact on a path to succeed.

..... seems like we might see wave V unfold soon. though it will take days...

Right now we have 50/50 chances for $266 retest and for going up right now. It depends on which EMA we will break soon...

I think sideways action for 1-1.5 years (final motive wave + long flat correction) would be healthy for bitcoin before the great runup to $1M.
Because right now there are too many "early adopters" holding tons of cheap bitcoins who are too greedy and tempted to cash out at prices between $400-$1200, and there are "smart money" people who know this and want to buy as many coins as possible below $1000.

I have corrected my count a bit. I think this is more possible:



It means we can have the top at $1600-$1800 this summer and then the bottom of the upcoming correction will depend on our current bottom ($340 or $260 if we go lower now).
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April 19, 2014, 06:53:36 AM
 #124

I disagree..... EW analysis does not permit us to ignore fundamentals. Bitcoin is expanding at an exponential rate. It cannot stall or speculative weight will damage it.

I would say 20% max of a 266 retest.

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April 19, 2014, 07:06:26 AM
 #125

I disagree..... EW analysis does not permit us to ignore fundamentals. Bitcoin is expanding at an exponential rate. It cannot stall or speculative weight will damage it.

I would say 20% max of a 266 retest.

Elliott waves are much more than just a price movement.
I'm pretty sure that fundamentals follow waves, and not waves follow fundamentals. It means you can predict real life events using EW.

Example: before New Year I analyzed RTS index (Russian Trade System - main economics indicator). I saw the picture: a big crash in 2008-2009 (economic crisis), and then a little growth and stabilization. I assumed that the crash could be a wave A, following growth is a wave B and according to Fib time there must be another crash in spring of 2014 (wave C).

Russian economy looked pretty stable in late 2013, so I assumed that there would be some bad events which could cause another wave of crisis in Russia. What happened then? Russian/Ukrainian conflict which was followed by US/EU economic sanctions (import of lots of products became limited), and then RTS index and Russian ruble fell to 2009 lows.

How did I know about possible Russian/Ukrainian conflict and American/European sanctions? I just knew that something *bad* could happen, nothing more.  
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April 19, 2014, 07:15:18 AM
 #126

Finally an impulse up. Hourly candle looks very similar to the one from $409 to $475 on the first wave of iii up.
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April 19, 2014, 07:18:10 AM
 #127

I disagree..... EW analysis does not permit us to ignore fundamentals. Bitcoin is expanding at an exponential rate. It cannot stall or speculative weight will damage it.

I would say 20% max of a 266 retest.

Elliott waves are much more than just a price movement.
I'm pretty sure that fundamentals follow waves, and not waves follow fundamentals. It means you can predict real life events using EW.

Example: before New Year I analyzed RTS index (Russian Trade System - main economics indicator). I saw the picture: a big crash in 2008-2009 (economic crisis), and then a little growth and stabilization. I assumed that the crash could be a wave A, following growth is a wave B and according to Fib time there must be another crash in spring of 2014 (wave C).

Russian economy looked pretty stable in late 2013, so I assumed that there would some bad events which could cause another wave of crisis in Russia. What happened then? Russian/Ukrainian conflict which was followed by US/EU economic sanctions (import of lots of products became limited), and then RTS index and Russian ruble fell to 2009 lows.

How could I know about possible Russian/Ukrainian conflict and American/European sanctions? I just knew that something *bad* could happen, nothing more.  

I disagree again, waves reflect fundamentals, they are synonimous, this is not magic or superficial. The reason why news seems to often coincide with junctures is because when the market is at extreme junctures the market is vulnerable to news. news items come every day, bad and good, but most are not significant enough for long term effect, unless the market is positioned for reversal. there is also a conspiracy component, but the waves are still only a reflection of the fundamentals/insider behaviour.

I can burn down a car factory at will, at the throw of a dice, and the stock in that company will crash for certain if it results in destruction. I will cause a wave, and the wave will reflect the destruction.

the arguments that we can predict presidential elections with EW is part of the social mood feature, sentiment.




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April 19, 2014, 07:18:56 AM
 #128

Finally an impulse up. Hourly candle looks very similar to the one from $409 to $475 on the first wave of iii up.

.... many of us here believe this is wave V. can you please illustrate iii wave interpretation?

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April 19, 2014, 07:25:54 AM
 #129

I disagree again, waves reflect fundamentals, they are synonimous, this is not magic or superficial. The reason why news seems to often coincide with junctures is because when the market is at extreme junctures the market is vulnerable to news. news items come every day, bad and good, but most are not significant enough for long term effect, unless the market is positioned for reversal. there is also a conspiracy component, but the waves are still only a reflection of the fundamentals/insider behaviour.

I can burn down a car factory at will, at the throw of a dice, and the stock in that company will crash for certain if it results in destruction. I will cause a wave, and the wave will reflect the destruction.

the arguments that we can predict presidential elections with EW is part of the social mood feature, sentiment.


I would say waves == fundamentals.
What is Fib time? It's a timer in your brain. Timer for responce/reaction to events. Every fundamental event is a someone's reaction to someone's action. So, our own life is a big cycle which has waves that act according to Fib time (a timer in our or someone else's brain).

So we can predict lots of fundamental events using this method. Because every event is a human's reaction to something.
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April 19, 2014, 07:37:28 AM
 #130

I disagree again, waves reflect fundamentals, they are synonimous, this is not magic or superficial. The reason why news seems to often coincide with junctures is because when the market is at extreme junctures the market is vulnerable to news. news items come every day, bad and good, but most are not significant enough for long term effect, unless the market is positioned for reversal. there is also a conspiracy component, but the waves are still only a reflection of the fundamentals/insider behaviour.

I can burn down a car factory at will, at the throw of a dice, and the stock in that company will crash for certain if it results in destruction. I will cause a wave, and the wave will reflect the destruction.

the arguments that we can predict presidential elections with EW is part of the social mood feature, sentiment.


I would say waves == fundamentals.
What is Fib time? It's a timer in your brain. Timer for responce/reaction to events. Every fundamental event is a someone's reaction to someone's action. So, our own life is a big cycle which has waves that act according to Fib time (a timer in our or someone else's brain).

So we can predict lots of fundamental events using this method. Because every event is a human's reaction to something.

yes herd psychology makes EW robust, and is just as important fundamentally as GDP for example. but which piece of information would you rather have - the company that you own stock in is about to burn down, or the company that you hold stock in has possibly completed a fifth wave?


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April 19, 2014, 07:50:24 AM
Last edit: April 19, 2014, 08:18:48 AM by fr33d0miz3r
 #131

yes herd psychology makes EW robust, and is just as important fundamentally as GDP for example. but which piece of information would you rather have - the company that you own stock in is about to burn down, or the company that you hold stock in has possibly completed a fifth wave?

I would want to know both.

By the way, I want to explain you how wave fundamentals work. For example, you have a business. Your company becomes successful.
What is a fifth wave of your company's success? Durig this wave you are delusional, you are shouting "WOW!! Such success!! We are the greatest! No one can beat us!! Wow!"

At this time your competitors (for example) are watching you and getting evil or annoyed or planning something bad for you. At one moment (when Fib timer triggers) they decide to start real actions against you. Something *bad* for your company is happening and stock of your company burns down.

Does Bitcoin have "competitors"/enemies who are just still "watching" now? Of course: banks, governments, hackers etc.
Does Bitcoin have "holders" who are shouting "Wow! Bitcoin is successful! F*ck you bankers!" - of course.
I think it's time to trigger "the Fib timer" soon.

Thanks to Bitcoin Foundation that does great lobby to "soften the blow" in the future.
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April 19, 2014, 08:05:08 AM
 #132

yes herd psychology makes EW robust, and is just as important fundamentally as GDP for example. but which piece of information would you rather have - the company that you own stock in is about to burn down, or the company that you hold stock in has possibly completed a fifth wave?

I would want to know both.

By the way, I want to explain you how wave fundamentals work. For example, you have a business. Your company becomes successful.
What is a fifth wave of your company's success? Durig this wave you are delusional, you are shouting "WOW!! Such success!! We are the greatest! No one can beat us!! Wow!"

At this time your competitors (for example) are watching you and getting evil or annoyed or planning something bad for you. At one moment (when Fib timer triggers) they decide to start real actions against you. Something *bad* for your company is happening and stock of your company burns down.

Does Bitcoin have "competitors"/enemies who are just still "watchig" now? Of course: banks, governments, hackers etc.
Does Bitcoin have "holders" who are shouting "Wow! Bitcoin is successful! F*ck you bankers!" - of course.
I think it's time to trigger "the Fib timer" soon.

Thanks to Bitcoin Foundation that does great lobby to "soften the blow" in the future.

yes, laws of physics play out every where, and they are reflected on the charts. but I would rather know the fundamentals. am impulse might precede a third wave, or it might be the end of a cycle, or it might be an A wave. only with fundamentals can we know which one it is.

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April 19, 2014, 08:09:29 AM
 #133

yes, laws of physics play out every where, and they are reflected on the charts. but I would rather know the fundamentals. am impulse might precede a third wave, or it might be the end of a cycle, or it might be an A wave. only with fundamentals can we know which one it is.

Agreed, but you should rather know both the fundamentals and the waves. And you should know all possibilities for the future waves. That would allow you to define possibilities for future fundamental events.
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April 19, 2014, 08:10:40 AM
 #134

yes, laws of physics play out every where, and they are reflected on the charts. but I would rather know the fundamentals. am impulse might precede a third wave, or it might be the end of a cycle, or it might be an A wave. only with fundamentals can we know which one it is.

Agreed, but you should rather know both the fundamentals and waves. And you should know all possibilities for future waves. That would allow you to define possibilities for future fundamental events.

yep yep I agree with that. lets watch the this blow out fifth  Grin

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April 19, 2014, 08:13:54 AM
 #135

Nice weekend pump Wink
Btw, the wave 2 lasted 35 hours and the wave 4 lasted 70 hours (35*2). So it seems our impulse counts are correct. But I expect a runup to 700 (not 540-560) during this wave. If we fail to break 200-day and 100-day EMA, we are not reversed.
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April 19, 2014, 08:27:58 AM
 #136

Finally an impulse up. Hourly candle looks very similar to the one from $409 to $475 on the first wave of iii up.

.... many of us here believe this is wave V. can you please illustrate iii wave interpretation?

We are in agreement on the count - refer to my previous chart.

This is what I meant with the other comment.

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April 19, 2014, 11:23:26 AM
 #137

Finally an impulse up. Hourly candle looks very similar to the one from $409 to $475 on the first wave of iii up.

.... many of us here believe this is wave V. can you please illustrate iii wave interpretation?

We are in agreement on the count - refer to my previous chart.

This is what I meant with the other comment.

sorry I misread your post. glad we all agree! this is a powerful reading.

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April 19, 2014, 11:27:43 AM
 #138

Primary wave took 1.5 days to complete, third wave took 2.5 days to complete. how many days will fifth wave take to complete?

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April 19, 2014, 01:07:06 PM
 #139

Primary wave took 1.5 days to complete, third wave took 2.5 days to complete. how many days will fifth wave take to complete?

Probably 2.5+1.5 = 4 days or (2.5+4.5)*1.618 = 6.5 days.
Or: 2.5-1.5 = 1 day.

But now I'm not sure we will continue going up.
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April 19, 2014, 03:17:03 PM
 #140

Finally an impulse up. Hourly candle looks very similar to the one from $409 to $475 on the first wave of iii up.

.... many of us here believe this is wave V. can you please illustrate iii wave interpretation?

We are in agreement on the count - refer to my previous chart.

This is what I meant with the other comment.



yea even the pattern before those 2 boxes looks similar if you take out magnitude of the swings
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April 19, 2014, 10:00:20 PM
 #141

Primary wave took 1.5 days to complete, third wave took 2.5 days to complete. how many days will fifth wave take to complete?

Probably 2.5+1.5 = 4 days or (2.5+4.5)*1.618 = 6.5 days.
Or: 2.5-1.5 = 1 day.

But now I'm not sure we will continue going up.

why not?

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April 20, 2014, 03:01:35 AM
 #142

Primary wave took 1.5 days to complete, third wave took 2.5 days to complete. how many days will fifth wave take to complete?

Probably 2.5+1.5 = 4 days or (2.5+4.5)*1.618 = 6.5 days.
Or: 2.5-1.5 = 1 day.

But now I'm not sure we will continue going up.

why not?

I rely on EMAs for confirmations Smiley

Hmm, the weekend pump continues. That gives us some hope for an uptrend.
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April 20, 2014, 03:03:33 AM
 #143

Sounds strange to me. we have a leading indicator, but the EMA is telling you to buy the fifth wave. better idea, look to short the fifth of the fifth wave and make an absolute killing.

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April 20, 2014, 03:05:53 AM
 #144

Sounds strange to me. we have a leading indicator, but the EMA is telling you to buy the fifth wave. better idea, look to short the fifth of the fifth wave and make an absolute killing.

200-day EMA is a barrier which is hard to break. Once we break it, we won't dive below it anymore soon. So, if we break 200-day EMA, we'll have an extended 5th wave. Why not buy it if it's extended?

Or if we fail to break the 200-day EMA, we'll possibly break it by the 3rd wave of higher level. Why not buy the 3rd wave then?
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April 20, 2014, 03:14:23 AM
 #145

Sounds strange to me. we have a leading indicator, but the EMA is telling you to buy the fifth wave. better idea, look to short the fifth of the fifth wave and make an absolute killing.

200-day EMA is a barrier which is hard to break. Once we break it, we won't dive below it anymore soon. So, if we break 200-day EMA, we'll have an extended 5th wave. Why not buy it if it's extended?

Or if we fail to break the 200-day EMA, we'll possibly break it by the 3rd wave of higher level. Why not buy the 3rd wave then?

we dont know that yet. sure, buy the fifth wave, but take the third wave gratefully, that is where the money lies.

also, buying the fifth wave is not a hold position, as usually it is 100% retraced. I will be shorting if it plays out clearly. I imagine it could be catalysed by the last of the chinese news - say Huobi shutting down.

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April 20, 2014, 03:21:35 AM
 #146

also, buying the fifth wave is not a hold position, as usually it is 100% retraced. I will be shorting if it plays out clearly. I imagine it could be catalysed by the last of the chinese news - say Huobi shutting down.

If the fifth wave 100% retraces, then we won't break the 200-day EMA by it.
And it would mean we still won't break the downtrend line.

So, there are still no confirmations of an uptrend to me. I still have EW counts that tell me a possibility of the downtrend continuation within the next 3 weeks to the possible bottom at ~325. While this count is not invalidated, I will rather sit tight and see what happens.

Every EW counts should be confirmed by traditional TA and important EMAs.
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April 20, 2014, 03:27:36 AM
 #147

also, buying the fifth wave is not a hold position, as usually it is 100% retraced. I will be shorting if it plays out clearly. I imagine it could be catalysed by the last of the chinese news - say Huobi shutting down.

If the fifth wave 100% retraces, then we won't break the 200-day EMA by it.
And it would mean we still won't break the downtrend line.

So, there are still no confirmations of an uptrend to me. I still have EW counts that tell me a possibility of the downtrend continuation within the next 3 weeks to the possible bottom at ~325. While this count is not invalidated, I will rather sit tight and see what happens.

Every EW counts should be confirmed by traditional TA and important EMAs.


A primary wave never stands alone, even in consolidation. this could be an A, but much more likely it is a primary.

If I see a primary wave where I expect one because of fundamentals, I'll forget the TA. Im NOT going to buy high to a lagging indicator, we can see with our own eyes.

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April 20, 2014, 03:29:08 AM
 #148

A primary wave never stands alone, even in consolidation. this could be an A, but much more likely it is a primary.

If I see a primary wave where I expect one because of fundamentals, I'll forget the TA. Im NOT going to buy high to a lagging indicator, we can see with our own eyes.

"buy high" is somewhere around $1000  Grin
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April 20, 2014, 03:30:26 AM
 #149

A primary wave never stands alone, even in consolidation. this could be an A, but much more likely it is a primary.

If I see a primary wave where I expect one because of fundamentals, I'll forget the TA. Im NOT going to buy high to a lagging indicator, we can see with our own eyes.

"buy high" is somewhere around $1000  Grin

 Grin MUAhahahaha

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April 20, 2014, 03:41:47 AM
 #150


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April 20, 2014, 03:52:48 AM
 #151

I'm not buying while it's valid:

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April 20, 2014, 04:05:05 AM
 #152

I'm not buying while it's valid:

I guess we are trading on different time frames completely. Im a day trader and long term holder, If that situation unfolded, you can bet I'd be short the best of the way down with my 20% funds on BFX. The way I see it, is that If I can catch a third wave (as I have) a leveraged day trading position may suddenly become a long term position to hold on to.

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April 20, 2014, 04:08:00 AM
 #153

I'm not buying while it's valid:
I guess we are trading on different time frames completely.

Probably. I usually open long/short positions for weeks at least.
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April 21, 2014, 12:40:12 AM
Last edit: April 21, 2014, 01:18:59 AM by chessnut
 #154


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April 21, 2014, 05:09:42 AM
 #155

possible 5th wave blow out case.


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April 21, 2014, 11:31:26 PM
 #156


do we have a primary on stamp?

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April 21, 2014, 11:47:46 PM
 #157


do we have a primary on stamp?

I'm not really seeing 5 waves down for C unless it is a truncated fifth.

I only had one order filled at $490 with more down to $475 Sad

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April 22, 2014, 12:54:49 AM
 #158


I'm not really seeing 5 waves down for C unless it is a truncated fifth.

I only had one order filled at $490 with more down to $475 Sad

every day it looks more like a C wave... oh well. Ill hold until the we truly stall. plenty to be made short if this is a C wave. Today is the day if this is a fifth wave.

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April 22, 2014, 01:17:15 AM
 #159

I suppose this truncated ending diagonal 5th is possible



...or the 4 is not yet complete

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April 22, 2014, 01:35:43 AM
 #160

queeq had an idea that we may be in wave II.... I think assuming that wave ii and iv were quite out of proportion.

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April 22, 2014, 03:23:45 AM
 #161

queeq had an idea that we may be in wave II.... I think assuming that wave ii and iv were quite out of proportion.

Or we are going to $0.0006
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April 22, 2014, 03:25:47 AM
 #162

Huobi thinks sell walls are sexy. up we are going. why doom and gloom suddenly? fifth wave is still an option.

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April 22, 2014, 03:27:13 AM
 #163

fifth wave is still an option.

or not?

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April 22, 2014, 03:28:51 AM
 #164

trend lines do not define elliot waves..... there is a primary wave on stamp if you didnt notice.

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April 22, 2014, 03:31:10 AM
 #165

trend lines do not define elliot waves..... there is a primary wave on stamp if you didnt notice.
And EMAs? We failed to break 200-day EMA. And even more: We failed to break the 240-day EMA, which has only minor resistance.
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April 22, 2014, 03:34:16 AM
 #166

trend lines do not define elliot waves..... there is a primary wave on stamp if you didnt notice.
And EMAs? We failed to break 200-day EMA. And even more: We failed to break the 240-day EMA, which has only minor resistance.

EMAs are only small edges.... they are usually out of tune with the market waves because of abstract time scales. I use my eyes, not EMAs. I see a juncture, that is all that matters to me.
Huobi is rising as we speak.... maybe we should talk in a few hours.

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April 22, 2014, 03:35:59 AM
 #167

trend lines do not define elliot waves..... there is a primary wave on stamp if you didnt notice.
And EMAs? We failed to break 200-day EMA. And even more: We failed to break the 240-day EMA, which has only minor resistance.

EMAs are only small edges.... they are usually out of tune with the market waves because of abstract time scales. I use my eyes, not EMAs. I see a juncture, that is all that matters to me.
Huobi is rising as we speak.... maybe we should talk in a few hours.

EMAs are used to confirm or decline the EW counts. Wave C may often look like a wave 3, and only EMAs can say you WTF is going on.

Houbi (with its fake volume) is just testing the other people's reaction. If Huobi is rising, but other exchanges don't follow it anymore - then it's time for dump.
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April 22, 2014, 03:39:51 AM
 #168

trend lines do not define elliot waves..... there is a primary wave on stamp if you didnt notice.
And EMAs? We failed to break 200-day EMA. And even more: We failed to break the 240-day EMA, which has only minor resistance.

EMAs are only small edges.... they are usually out of tune with the market waves because of abstract time scales. I use my eyes, not EMAs. I see a juncture, that is all that matters to me.
Huobi is rising as we speak.... maybe we should talk in a few hours.

EMAs are used to confirm or decline the EW counts. Wave C may often look like a wave 3, and only EMAs can say you WTF is going on.

EMAs are not an integral part of EW analysis. that is your style. I watch the fundamentals.

Huobi is rising after a massive troll wall. I think I know what that means. wave V is still a real possibility. we have evidence for a lot of support in this area. Im not turning bear until we break 475.

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April 22, 2014, 03:41:23 AM
 #169

Huobi is rising after a massive troll wall. I think I know what that means. wave V is still a real possibility. we have evidence for a lot of support in this area. Im not turning bear until we break 475.

Huobi and troll walls are also not parts of EW analysis  Tongue
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April 22, 2014, 03:43:28 AM
 #170

Huobi is rising after a massive troll wall. I think I know what that means. wave V is still a real possibility. we have evidence for a lot of support in this area. Im not turning bear until we break 475.

Huobi and troll walls are also not parts of EW analysis  Tongue

I never said they were  Tongue

EMA sell walls troll walls Huobi rising H&S support resistance etc is all TA. none of them point to 266  Tongue

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April 22, 2014, 03:46:10 AM
 #171

none of them point to 266  Tongue

really?  Grin

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April 22, 2014, 03:48:16 AM
 #172

none of them point to 266  Tongue

really?  Grin



Thats EW analysis and a bearish count  Angry I dont like.

TA is risk management. does not forecast like EW.

primary on stamp.  

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April 22, 2014, 03:50:19 AM
 #173

Thats EW analysis and a bearish count  Angry I dont like.

Bears and early adopters don't care about your preferences  Cheesy
They are just cashing out while you are bullish.

Classic TA is not only a risk management. It's used as an addition to EW analysis for confirming/declining analyst's counts.
There is a possibility for $260 in the next 3 weeks and EMAs confirm it. I will become bullish only after breaking $530.

BTW I can see an obvious double top pattern, still is not confirmed though.
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April 22, 2014, 03:57:35 AM
 #174

Thats EW analysis and a bearish count  Angry I dont like.

Bears and early adopters don't care about your preferences  Cheesy
They are just cashing out while you are bullish.

Classic TA is not only a risk management. It's used as an addition to EW analysis for confirming/declining analyst's counts.
There is a possibility for $260 in the next 3 weeks and EMAs confirm it. I will become bullish only after breaking $530.

hey cool it, I know about sentiment just as well as you. I dont like your count because you couldn't justify the fundamentals, and that means a lot more than a EMA.

you say in addition to EW, maybe, but not on its own, it is not a forecasting tool. I have a bullish count, and I have fundamentals. I've been rightly a bear in the bear market and I think it has come to an end.

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April 22, 2014, 03:58:46 AM
 #175

and I have fundamentals

Which fundamentals? MtGox liquidation? OKCoin deposit halting? Which?
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April 22, 2014, 04:03:54 AM
 #176

and I have fundamentals

Which fundamentals? MtGox liquidation? OKCoin deposit halting? Which?

China is in the past, the market is forward looking. exchanges are opening in America and Europe and the UK one after the other, and they have exposure to hundreds of billions of dollars. soon all issues will become irrelevant.

MtGox liquidation? that situation is far from clear. coins will not be liquidated on the market, they will likely be returned to customers. why should that make an impact when 3600 coins are mined every day? we dont even know when the legal proceedings will be finished, this may only be an issue in the distant future.





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April 22, 2014, 04:04:45 AM
 #177

and I have fundamentals

Which fundamentals? MtGox liquidation? OKCoin deposit halting? Which?

China is in the past

So why are you still looking at Huobi if China is in the past?

Quote
MtGox liquidation? that situation is far from clear

So, we won't go up while the situation is unclear. That's simple.
I'm not saying about 200k coins dump. I'm saying about Bitcoin reputation in common people's heads.
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April 22, 2014, 04:06:08 AM
 #178

and I have fundamentals

Which fundamentals? MtGox liquidation? OKCoin deposit halting? Which?

China is in the past

So why are you still looking at Huobi if China is in the past?

chinese issues are in the past..... do you think it's bearish that the chinese are buying like crazy?

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April 22, 2014, 04:07:04 AM
 #179

chinese issues are in the past..... do you think it's bearish that the chinese are buying like crazy?

Chinese are buying (on fake volume) and others don't care and selling at the same time (on real volume). Yes, it's bullish, lol  Grin

Do you really think that Bitcoin's exponential growth will be infinite?
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April 22, 2014, 04:11:19 AM
 #180

chinese issues are in the past..... do you think it's bearish that the chinese are buying like crazy?

Chinese are buying (on fake volume) and others don't care and selling at the same time (on real volume). Yes, it's bullish, lol  Grin

Do you really think that Bitcoin's exponential growth will be infinite?

right so volume is fake when you like, and troll walls are real when you like. I wasn't referring to the volume anyway, just so happens that the price is rising. is that bullish or bearish?

Of coarse it wont be infinite. but the market cap is so small, it can easily grow 10x still.

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April 22, 2014, 04:12:25 AM
 #181

it can easily grow 10x still.

nope.
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April 22, 2014, 04:13:13 AM
 #182

it can easily grow 10x still.

nope.

yeah it can... easily. do you realise how much money there is in the world?

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April 22, 2014, 04:14:35 AM
 #183

I dont' really see the point of using technical analysis when we know this is just manipultion
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April 22, 2014, 04:15:33 AM
 #184

yeah it can... easily. do you realise how much money there is in the world?

I just know how many early adopters with tons of free bitcoins there are in the world. And their Fib timer is triggering NOW.
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April 22, 2014, 04:16:18 AM
 #185

I dont' really see the point of using technical analysis when we know this is just manipultion

this is an EW thread, not a TA thread. none the less, TA is the economical and geometrical necessity of buying low selling high. it does not lose significance during periods of manipulation.

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April 22, 2014, 04:19:51 AM
 #186

yeah it can... easily. do you realise how much money there is in the world?

I just know how many early adopters with tons of free bitcoins there are in the world. And their Fib timer is triggering NOW.

just like in all the last bubbles? yeah, a fib is about to trigger all right.... just wait till the stock market fib triggers and hundreds of trillions of USD needs a new home. where will it go? USD, gold, and a very small fraction (say half a trillion) bitcoin.

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April 22, 2014, 04:21:42 AM
 #187

just wait till the stock market fib triggers and hundreds of trillions of USD needs a new home. where will it go? USD, gold, and a very small fraction (say half a billion) bitcoin.

Yes, of course, I waiting for it. But it will happen not NOW.
First we will deflate the bitcoin bubble, and then the stock and fiat bubble will burst and the new money will go to bitcoin. Be patient. Everything takes time.
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April 22, 2014, 04:23:29 AM
 #188

just wait till the stock market fib triggers and hundreds of trillions of USD needs a new home. where will it go? USD, gold, and a very small fraction (say half a billion) bitcoin.

Yes, of course, I waiting for it. But it will happen not NOW.
First we deflate the bitcoin bubble, and then the stock and fiat bubble will burst and the new money will go to bitcoin. Be patient. Everything takes time.

so you think it can expand 10x? ok.

anyhow, no point arguing about it now. the counts will be proven within a $30 move either way. Ill come back in a few hours.

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April 22, 2014, 06:46:03 AM
 #189

so you think it can expand 10x? ok.

It can expand to $1M, but I'm not expecting new ATHs in the next few years.
I have revised my bullish long-term counts.
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April 22, 2014, 08:17:20 AM
Last edit: April 22, 2014, 08:33:27 AM by Queeq
 #190

none of them point to 266  Tongue

really?  Grin



OK, so if it is ending diagonal, appearing in wave C...

Subdivides into five waves - yes;
Appears as wave 5 or C - yes;
All waves subdivide into zigzags - no;
Wave 2 does not go beyond the start of wave 1 - yes;
Wave 3 overlaps wave 1 - yes;
Wave 4 does not go beyond the start of wave 2 - yes;
Wave 4 ends within the price territory of wave 1 - yes;
We have contracting variety of diagonal, so:
Wave 3 shorter than wave 1 - yes;
Wave 4 shorter than wave 2 - yes in absolute value, no in percentage;
Wave 5 to be shorter than wave 3 - to be seen.

If it is leading diagonal, then:
Wave 5 to end beyond end of wave 3 - to be seen.
Instead of all waves being zigzags for ending diagonal, for leading only 2 and 4 must be zigzags.
So it's most likely a leading if we can interpret last rise (11-16th of April) as a zigzag.

Oops.


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April 22, 2014, 08:22:49 AM
 #191

Wave 5 to be shorter than wave 3 - to be seen.

Oops.

Shorter or equal. If equal (or almost equal), then target = ~$260
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April 22, 2014, 08:33:51 AM
 #192

Edited previous post.

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April 22, 2014, 09:36:12 AM
 #193

Edited previous post.

Yes, now I mean leading, not ending diagonal. It's only the beginning of a downtrend.
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April 22, 2014, 09:59:23 AM
 #194

What was that period in December then? I thought downtrend should be counted from the peak.

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April 22, 2014, 10:01:21 AM
 #195

What was that period in December then? I thought downtrend should be counted from the peak.

Short-term correction before the last truncated ("failed") mini-wave up.
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April 22, 2014, 09:09:51 PM
 #196

just wait till the stock market fib triggers and hundreds of trillions of USD needs a new home. where will it go? USD, gold, and a very small fraction (say half a billion) bitcoin.

How long would you estimate?

Yes, of course, I waiting for it. But it will happen not NOW.
First we will deflate the bitcoin bubble, and then the stock and fiat bubble will burst and the new money will go to bitcoin. Be patient. Everything takes time.

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April 23, 2014, 01:58:30 AM
 #197

New post up.

http://www.cryptowaves.com/bitcoin-usd-wave-count-update-april-22nd-2014/

Please be constructive with your posts. TA and EWave discussions are welcome - I feel they go hand in hand.
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April 23, 2014, 07:17:03 AM
 #198

New post up.

http://www.cryptowaves.com/bitcoin-usd-wave-count-update-april-22nd-2014/

Please be constructive with your posts. TA and EWave discussions are welcome - I feel they go hand in hand.

nice chart - I tend to agree, although surprising that the wave iv and V are taking such a long time to unfold. Bearish moves still have zero conviction and I have doubts that any dump could push through 470-480 floors.

Inverse head and shoulders is comforting - the right hand shoulder is the weakest price action for ages. a light breeze could push it to 540.


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April 23, 2014, 07:30:48 AM
 #199

As far as I understand, the "triangle" presented by Cryptowaves is not really a triangle as it must subdivide into at least five waves where each of them is a zigzag.

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April 23, 2014, 09:22:56 AM
 #200

Doubts and arguments are far different things...  Roll Eyes
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April 23, 2014, 12:05:21 PM
 #201

As far as I understand, the "triangle" presented by Cryptowaves is not really a triangle as it must subdivide into at least five waves where each of them is a zigzag.

Triangles are counted as 3-3-3-3-3  for a, b, c, d, e. Expect two more touches of the lower trendline for c and e. If there's only one touch of the lower trendline then it could still be a flat for iv.
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April 23, 2014, 01:14:36 PM
 #202

As far as I understand, the "triangle" presented by Cryptowaves is not really a triangle as it must subdivide into at least five waves where each of them is a zigzag.

Triangles are counted as 3-3-3-3-3  for a, b, c, d, e. Expect two more touches of the lower trendline for c and e. If there's only one touch of the lower trendline then it could still be a flat for iv.

Yes, that's what I meant. But I don't see this pattern there:



But if it's really a triangle then I think it would most likely be wave B, and previous rise - wave A. It's too long to be single wave 4.

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April 23, 2014, 01:58:43 PM
 #203

There are no strict rules on the time aspect of waves, only guidelines.
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April 23, 2014, 02:04:19 PM
 #204

There are no strict rules on the time aspect of waves, only guidelines.

Sure, but it is very uncommon for wave 4 to be as long as waves 1-3 together. Motive waves are usually extended and could be very long. This one is corrective. That's why I think it's more likely to be wave B.

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April 23, 2014, 03:05:56 PM
 #205

There are no strict rules on the time aspect of waves, only guidelines.

Sure, but it is very uncommon for wave 4 to be as long as waves 1-3 together. Motive waves are usually extended and could be very long. This one is corrective. That's why I think it's more likely to be wave B.

That's the definition of a wave 4,actually.


Wave 4: Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three (see Fibonacci relationships below). Volume is well below than that of wave three. This is a good place to buy a pull back if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, fourth waves are often frustrating because of their lack of progress in the larger trend.

I'm not changing my view until price justifies a change.
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April 23, 2014, 03:27:34 PM
 #206

There are no strict rules on the time aspect of waves, only guidelines.

Sure, but it is very uncommon for wave 4 to be as long as waves 1-3 together. Motive waves are usually extended and could be very long. This one is corrective. That's why I think it's more likely to be wave B.

That's the definition of a wave 4,actually.


Wave 4: Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three (see Fibonacci relationships below). Volume is well below than that of wave three. This is a good place to buy a pull back if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, fourth waves are often frustrating because of their lack of progress in the larger trend.

I'm not changing my view until price justifies a change.

Actually we won't see much difference if the following would be wave 5 or C. Both of them could be pretty similar if we have powerful 5th or weak C wave. It would become clear when the following major wave unfolds. Anyway, let's watch.

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April 23, 2014, 06:56:44 PM
 #207

I'll add my 2 satoshi's...

After a $150 rise for 3 in little more than two days, it is to be expected to see a longer sideways movement. Sometimes, when the market is indecisive, you get more of a time correction rather than so much of a price correction.


This is just a little explanation of the psychology behind impulsive waves and why the fibo levels that have such predictive powers work as they do;
Wave 1 is believed to be "just a pullback" to the main trend. So people think "this is my chance to get out before the trend continues". This is what makes wave-2 sharp and deep. When the selling fails to make new lows, people start buying. When new highs are made, the trend starts to establish itself. People who don't want to be left out combined with traders watching the indicators starting to turn buy more and the wave-3 is now in full effect. This is what makes the 3rd the most powerful wave. After such a rise, the market needs a cool-off. Enter wave-4... A meandering sideways range to allow bids to catch up to the spot. You have bears who think it's the top of a C and bulls who think it's going to the moon. This is the indecision that makes a 4 very unpredictable. This same indecision builds strong S/R levels for the correction after the wave-5. Finally wave-5 breaks free and many who exited, get back in, in a stop-loss fashion. Again, no one wants to miss the train! This is especially true in Bitcoin. It is this mentality that catches people holding through the downtrend. Those that sell and panic buy back in for the 5th wave are some of the biggest culprits.

This psychology works in both directions, not just up.

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April 23, 2014, 11:01:38 PM
 #208


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April 24, 2014, 12:16:25 AM
 #209

RyNinDaCleM, can you please comment on the descending wedge illustrated above? Im not 100% on the rules/guidelines with that.

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April 24, 2014, 05:07:52 AM
 #210

RyNinDaCleM, can you please comment on the descending wedge illustrated above? Im not 100% on the rules/guidelines with that.

That is something I was watching very closely today. It did however, fail to touch the lower trend line to complete the wedge. It then preceded to break up above the upper trend line. The lack of conviction has me wary of a true break out, though. In Bitcoin terms, it might still be considered a wedge since the low liquidity of this market allows for strange moves that make no sense from an EW standpoint until much later.

Rules for an ending diagonal:
Has 5 waves and ALL are 3's
4 almost always overlaps 1
3 is still never the shortest
the trend lines converge and both either ascend or descend together

I redrew the upper line and it is still intact with one more wave down to complete. This would explain the lack of push on the break-out.


Edit:
Fixed


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April 24, 2014, 05:21:18 AM
 #211

Thanks  Wink nice chart.

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April 24, 2014, 10:56:48 AM
 #212

I updated that last chart with a channel if it turns into a double zig-zag. Divergence in the EWO says this move is almost over if not already.




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April 24, 2014, 11:20:16 AM
 #213

Thanks RyNinDaCleM, very interesting chart. the price action is interesting at these levels. weak to both sides, but showing support. I dont see this doing anything much without a drive, hopefully we will get some news in the NY session to catalyse the situation.

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April 24, 2014, 11:43:11 AM
 #214

Thanks RyNinDaCleM, very interesting chart. the price action is interesting at these levels. weak to both sides, but showing support. I dont see this doing anything much without a drive, hopefully we will get some news in the NY session to catalyse the situation.


Yeah, it'll be more of a spike triggering some panic (This can go both ways!). If up, expect a nice scalp. If down, it does a few things. It neutralizes the divergence and possibly invalidates this count which can cause a bearish outcome. I have bearish counts that are still in play, currently, and I don't discount the idea of a break down. The underliers are not great at the moment.

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April 24, 2014, 11:48:24 AM
 #215

Here is another possible count. the B wave wedge calls for a terminal C wave, and the A - C wave demonstrate divergance.

Bears are getting cocky at the moment I think they might get a surprise  Cheesy will see.


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April 24, 2014, 11:38:21 PM
 #216

two possible counts I see, one bullish, one bearish (but not very bearish)

the fashion with which we break/not break 530-550 will be much revealing.




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April 25, 2014, 12:13:31 AM
 #217

two possible counts I see, one bullish, one bearish (but not very bearish)



That bearish count is actually quite bearish in the longer mid-term but the final C will be a nice long, possibly reaching $600+.
A flat is also possible therefore only reaching ~$550 but still nearing $100 move is a nice trade at 20%

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April 25, 2014, 12:22:04 AM
 #218

This is another bear count building off of CW's triangle with the C extending to 612 (61.8% of A)-692 (100% of A)


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April 25, 2014, 03:45:58 AM
 #219

Triangle is invalidated


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April 25, 2014, 03:56:14 AM
 #220

I think this news validates an impulsive wave down. C wave. 


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April 25, 2014, 11:21:35 AM
 #221

Being it wave 4 from the 16th of April is almost invalidated.

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April 25, 2014, 11:26:10 AM
 #222

Being it wave 4 from the 16th of April is almost invalidated.

if we can get a five wave to terminate here in the next 2 days say (seems we have just begun wave iii) we may have a pinpoint buy opportunity around 380-420. This would cause a great big H&S pattern, and call for a possible B wave interpretation, so we can have ABC off 339.

I do not see an interpretation that takes us to new lows any time soon. anybody?

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April 25, 2014, 11:58:42 AM
 #223

Here is a USD version for those of us that can't convert it on the fly Tongue
Mine is slightly different, but should ultimately reach the same conclusion. The bull count is fully invalidated now, so I agree with chessnut' analysis of a 380-420 low for B.


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April 25, 2014, 12:11:17 PM
 #224

RyNinDaCleM , wave 2 cannot cross the start of wave 1 (the last wave structure).

Also, B subdivides to either zigzag, flat or triangle.

Edit: Oops, it's big B, all right. But I guess its end must be lower.

Still, it's possible we are in the end of bigger wave 2.

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April 25, 2014, 07:17:04 PM
 #225

I guess I should stop making cross country flights for work. I was on a plane Thursday 4/10 during the recent sharp drop and I was on a plane last night during the other sharp drop.

My count from the previous post is invalid. The current count that I am tracking has this drop as wave (2). Price bounced nicely off of the 50% retrace of wave (1) at 443. Wave (2) could be done, or it will drop further to the 62% retrace at 419. I'll make a post sometime this afternoon after taking a closer look at the charts.
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April 26, 2014, 09:09:08 AM
 #226

What do ya'll think of this? since this news has unfolded surprisingly as an ABC wave, the buy target is closer now. looking for exhaustion above 400.




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April 26, 2014, 10:22:38 AM
 #227



to justify my short term view. we need a lot more consolidation if we have not capitulated.

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April 28, 2014, 01:47:44 AM
 #228




C wave is diverging, suggesting further that this is not a iii wave. 400 is critical support, fibs and historically. b wave was wedge, suggesting terminal movement. Im looking for a strong short term signal long, before targeting 500 again.


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April 28, 2014, 02:14:57 AM
 #229




C wave is diverging, suggesting further that this is not a iii wave. 400 is critical support, fibs and historically. b wave was wedge, suggesting terminal movement. Im looking for a strong short term signal long, before targeting 500 again.



Again, I notice that you and others over at Tradingview are making your charts with the assumption that 340 was capitulation. Yes, I know, you put a red arrow pointing downward to act like you are looking both ways, but you give no long term bottom targets.

If you want to make helpful analysis, you should offer both views equally, even if you are secretly and biasedly rooting for us to go up.

You are going to have to redraw your charts if/when we go below 340. If you don't want to risk looking like fools - if you want anyone to listen to you the in future, you should hedge your analysis and give us the scenarios both ways.
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April 28, 2014, 02:49:46 AM
 #230

why dont you get off the EW thread windjc, or post some EWA. sorry if I hurt your feelings.

No. Its just that people aren't taking your seriously. And I'm trying to tell you why. I'm trying to help you.

But you are apparently too butthurt to listen.

I made 40k in the last week doing the exact opposite of what you were telling people - unless somehow they could interpret that mysterious red arrow pointing down that you add to all your bullish EW chart patterns.
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April 28, 2014, 03:13:57 AM
 #231

why dont you get off the EW thread windjc, or post some EWA. sorry if I hurt your feelings.

No. Its just that people aren't taking your seriously. And I'm trying to tell you why. I'm trying to help you.

But you are apparently too butthurt to listen.

I made 40k in the last week doing the exact opposite of what you were telling people - unless somehow they could interpret that mysterious red arrow pointing down that you add to all your bullish EW chart patterns.

well that's a load of crap.

sell a bunch right now then. Im telling you to buy.



I will sell the next rebound most likely. And I will let you know. One day, it might motivate you to make a more well rounded analysis.
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April 28, 2014, 06:34:46 AM
 #232

we have a complete count. the C wave was a weak impulsive, now we have a typical abc-abc-135 pattern. this is a tradable juncture with a lot of upside potential - I am long from 430. this bear run is very weak, and losing momentum rapidly.
Exit strategy is pending, if the impulsive becomes more aggressive, I would cut loss in the teens, but the trade is otherwise valid until 400 is broken.

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April 28, 2014, 03:47:13 PM
 #233


Do you guys think we just hit point 2?

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April 28, 2014, 04:02:22 PM
 #234

I've already forgot about that chart Smiley
I think it's invalidated as C was too long.
Yea... And supposed B appeared much lower. Don't think that it could be extended flat.

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April 28, 2014, 07:34:44 PM
 #235

Do you guys think we just hit point 2?

I think we have begun a wave C, could be part of a 1-2-1-2 primary, or a correction up 600-700.



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April 28, 2014, 07:44:24 PM
 #236

Do you guys think we just hit point 2?

I think we have begun a wave C, could be part of a 1-2-1-2 primary, or a correction up 600-700.




We don't know really if that's C or (III). They are indistinguishable at this stage.  But I think it's more likely to be C because previous wave down was more like B.

What is 1-2-1-2? I know only 5 and 3 combinations. These one-twos should subdivide.

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April 28, 2014, 07:55:49 PM
 #237

Do you guys think we just hit point 2?

I think we have begun a wave C, could be part of a 1-2-1-2 primary, or a correction up 600-700.




We don't know really if that's C or (III). They are indistinguishable at this stage.  But I think it's more likely to be C because previous wave down was more like B.

What is 1-2-1-2? I know only 5 and 3 combinations. These one-twos should subdivide.

well 1-2-1-2 is a retrospecive form of primary, that looks just like an abc until wave a of the next leg turns around into a iii wave.
we had some really bad news yesterday, and the market has turned. this is not a short squeeze, I think it has fundamental drive. considering where we are in the larger picture, I am expecting a wave iii.

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April 28, 2014, 08:35:51 PM
 #238


well 1-2-1-2 is a retrospecive form of primary, that looks just like an abc until wave a of the next leg turns around into a iii wave.
we had some really bad news yesterday, and the market has turned. this is not a short squeeze, I think it has fundamental drive. considering where we are in the larger picture, I am expecting a wave iii.


The two problems I see with this chart is that 1) your large C should sub-divide into 5 waves not 3(ABC).
2) is that your I off the 339 bottom is not 5 waves, imo. I suppose it can be if you really force it, but not with any kind of proper proportions.

Edit:
To help better explain the 1-2-1-2 to Queeq
It is the same as nested 1-2's Call it an extended 3rd. Ex. I, II, 1, 2, 3, 4, III, IV, V

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April 28, 2014, 08:47:40 PM
 #239

Oh, thanks, now I understood. At first I thought it's a subdivision pattern, but that were numbers of waves.

Regarding last major C on the last graph, it could be easily subdivided into an impulse. Bigger A @400 could be treated as 3-rd, following B @700 - as 4th wave. Some of the subdivisions are extended.

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April 28, 2014, 08:50:00 PM
 #240


The two problems I see with this chart is that 1) your large C should sub-divide into 5 waves not 3(ABC).
2) is that your I off the 339 bottom is not 5 waves, imo. I suppose it can be if you really force it, but not with any kind of proper proportions.

Edit:
To help better explain the 1-2-1-2 to Queeq
It is the same as nested 1-2's Call it an extended 3rd. Ex. I, II, 1, 2, 3, 4, III, IV, V


Im not banking on a primary wave, but the chart is tell me that alternatively a wave C is coming to 550 - 600. the market has turned unexpectedly (not to EW) after BAD news. it has fundamental drive.

my overall C wave divides into ABC. is that incorrect? abc - abc - abc is not uncommon?

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