Do you bet against the public? let’s talk about it

[silpersurfer]

Of course, we all bet to win and not to lose. So it is only natural, therefore, that most people, myself included, choose the favorite. Not only do they seem most likely to win, but it feels as though it’d be a safer way to avoid losing. Really, it makes more sense to bet on the strong team, especially if they have been consistent and the public has been leaning in their support.

On the other hand, however, I do have an emotional side as well that can’t really be ignored. Every time when my favorite team plays, I still do bet for them no matter how strong the opponent is. It’s much more rewarding if your favorite team wins, and so does your bet. It isn’t quite strategic, but in the ‘real’ world of betting, a little bit of bias and personal feelings really add to the excitement making the whole thing alive.

[Judith87403]

I don't look at what the crowd is doing before choosing the club to bet on. I do my analysis and use that to predict which club to bet on. If my prediction is against the public fine, but it it isn't doesn't make me change my mind. Sometimes, I do what my instincts tells me and bet against the public just to be different.

Whether betting against the public or not no one cares, the most important thing is you're doing what your instincts tells you to do or betting according to the informations you get while making analysis because our ways of viewing things differs which most gamblers may be seeing the negative why you will be seeing the opposite before you know there will be a little misconception between the both gamblers which is why I usually gamble from home, I always avoid gambling in public or going to the local betting shop to gamble because I  know that if I eventually go to the bet shop to gamble there will be a lot of confusion there even the nuisance they are creating is still unhealthy.

[Jaycoinz]

There are times that your instincts just tells you to go with an option that might seem funny to others but at the end of the day you might end up winning your bet. In gambling there's nothing that's impossible, even the more outrageous option that doesn't make sense to other gamblers has a chance.of playing out. Betting against the public sometimes isn't an easy choice but the results are always worth the risk

[Zigabel]

One of the Reasons I will play against the public will be guts feelings, I may just have that feeling pop up and would want to work with it because in the first place I will wonder why everyone will be on same route and no one is trying to checkout what the other path looks like and secondly if it were some casino games, the obvious is that they will alter the algorithm because everyone cannot win, that will mean a huge loss for them which they may not be willing to bear as at the time. So that for me is a valid enough reason not to join in on with the crowds.  Secondly if it was on the basis of an odd that suggested some form of assurances, then be sure that a good number of times, it is intentionally set by the casino to drag people into placing a bet on the game.

The crowd is not and will not always be right, they too can be acting based off intuition or some misguided information which you may not be aware of until later in the long run so it is best to always have your stand. It is not  a guarantee you will be right, neither will the crowd.

[mindrust]

Depends on the situation. Sometimes it really pays to be contrarian. However I usually prefer to bet on the favorites. They don’t bring the most money in but they get the job done. They let me have enough dopamine and I can’t ask for more really.  When you bet on the underdog it is more adrenaline than dopamine and it doesn’t change much even if your bet wins. As people get older they tend to have less and less risk in their lives. Younger folks on the other hand they go crazy with everything. It even shows in their political preferences. You know what they say, if you are a capitalist by the time you are 18 then you have no heart; if you are a socialist when you are 40, you have no brain.

[TopT3ns]

One of the Reasons I will play against the public will be guts feelings, I may just have that feeling pop up and would want to work with it because in the first place I will wonder why everyone will be on same route and no one is trying to checkout what the other path looks like and secondly if it were some casino games, the obvious is that they will alter the algorithm because everyone cannot win, that will mean a huge loss for them which they may not be willing to bear as at the time. So that for me is a valid enough reason not to join in on with the crowds.  Secondly if it was on the basis of an odd that suggested some form of assurances, then be sure that a good number of times, it is intentionally set by the casino to drag people into placing a bet on the game.

The crowd is not and will not always be right, they too can be acting based off intuition or some misguided information which you may not be aware of until later in the long run so it is best to always have your stand. It is not  a guarantee you will be right, neither will the crowd.

We can even ask ourselves whether it is the best decision to make when a good number of people are moving in the same direction. The high amount of people involved can portray popularisation but not necessarily success. Rationality in this case should have an upper hand over doing what the current trend is, particularly where we are dealing with games involving algorithms or gambling which are all developed to be favourable to the hosts. It is usually more beneficial to have independent thinking.

[Alphakilo]

There are times that your instincts just tells you to go with an option that might seem funny to others but at the end of the day you might end up winning your bet. In gambling there's nothing that's impossible, even the more outrageous option that doesn't make sense to other gamblers has a chance.of playing out. Betting against the public sometimes isn't an easy choice but the results are always worth the risk

You know also that a gambler may not be aware they are betting against a better half of the public and that's one reason why going with instinct in betting is a good thing.

However, betting against the public is mostly associated with sports betting, and it could also be known as fading the public in other terms.
It is an intentional rather than instinctual strategy that involves a bettor placing  their bets against what the public decides to or places their bet on.

[Su-asa]

It's actually rare thesedays to bet against the public because of the intense moments while the game is ongoing. But as for me I mostly follow my instincts and I also take my time to think about it before making the decision. I don't just bet against the public, I calculate the risk and then I stake what I can afford to risk. At some point, I decid the game based on the odd. But what's more important is whether I do it for entertainment or not.

[robelneo]

i know abou this so-called betting against the public strategy. I kinda get the idea behind it like when the majority is leaning one side, the line tends to move and value might appear on the other. But I’d like to hear how others here actually apply it in real betting situations.

It's risky, but if you see something the general public didn't and you are comfortable with whatever the results are, go for it.
There are gamblers who look for odds and advantages that the majority do not see. These gamblers are risk-takers who take the chance to satisfy their ego or curiosity and seek huge rewards.
I haven't had any success doing this, but we sometimes take the risk out of curiosity to see if it turns out right.

[Dickiy]

If I'm not mistaken, a similar topic has been around for a while, so it's not a big deal. I rarely bet on sports, but I've tried betting against the crowd before, when the majority of the public picked the team with the higher chance of winning based on statistics, and I went against the grain by choosing the other side, the weaker team.

Actually, there wasn't any specific reason or calculation behind my decision. My plan was simply to try my luck against the statistics with a lower chance of winning. But wow, I've won a few times because the favored team unexpectedly made mistakes on the field that left them far behind.

This means that in gambling, nothing is impossible. Even if you bet against the crowd, it doesn't mean you can't win.

[Z-tight]

I like to take risk in football betting. Now, i don't mean gambling more than i can afford to lose, but going with the underdog sometimes or going with an option that could be considered unpopular. I would not call it betting against the public because i don't know what others think about the game, and it is simply the odds that try to tell the probability of an outcome.

The reason i like the unpopular opinion with higher cumulative odds is because, even if you accumulate only odds of ~ 1.12, there is no assurance that even that will be successful.

[bhadz]

i know abou this so-called betting against the public strategy. I kinda get the idea behind it like when the majority is leaning one side, the line tends to move and value might appear on the other. But I’d like to hear how others here actually apply it in real betting situations.

What specific factors do you look at before deciding to fade the public? Is it the percentage of bets vs. money or sharp line movement, or some team hype?
I want to know the details on what triggers your decision before placing the bet, not just the basic “because the public is on it.”

can we share some insights here, maybe we’ll pick up new ways to spot real value plays.

IMO, those all factors can be a good reason why I would bet against the public. If there is not that much risk on me and the amount is quite low, I wouldn't mind doing it as a YOLO mentality. I know that it might be that much to think by the others but even so, that's somehow a good time to risk when the odds are good and attractive and you know that there can be a way for that underdog to win against the public if they are with the favorite. Also, if it's the last bet that I can do within the day. That makes it even a stronger decision to be done.

[arabspaceship123]

Are people experts if they tell you how much to bet. People saying where you should bet why you should bet are they pro experts? Why are they sharing advice with you do you believe in free advices. If they know which bet will win why do they want you to win your bet. They can win bets without giving free advices. Public is not always right they can be wrong.

[GxSTxV]

Very interesting! Talking about sportsbetting or any kind of bets with odds, probably it’s something we all know about and easy to understand. The odds go for the side where more chances of winning presents. However, I wonder if it’s possible to track that on other games, fir example slots, we know that RTP is the factor giving back wins upon the total number of bets taking out the tiny percentage of home or casino.

Probably, if we can find these statistics on casinos where most slot is being played, like actual numbers, this might really help us to find a slot with bigger chances to win big not only a normal win. From my knowledge if the slot is being played by few people, the chances of giving back bigger is tight just like betting against public, more people = higher chances to win bigger jackpot. I'm open to any corrections or better ideas.

[stadus]

Public is not always right they can be wrong.

Or maybe the public is just wrong most of the time. That’s the whole concept of betting against the public, most people don’t really analyze deeply. They usually bet based on how they feel about the game or just go with their favorite team, without realizing that sometimes the line isn’t even in their favor anymore.

some good explanation about betting against the public.
https://www.oddsshark.com/sports-betting/betting-against-public

[Antotena]

i know abou this so-called betting against the public strategy. I kinda get the idea behind it like when the majority is leaning one side, the line tends to move and value might appear on the other. But I’d like to hear how others here actually apply it in real betting situations.

What specific factors do you look at before deciding to fade the public? Is it the percentage of bets vs. money or sharp line movement, or some team hype?
I want to know the details on what triggers your decision before placing the bet, not just the basic “because the public is on it.”

can we share some insights here, maybe we’ll pick up new ways to spot real value plays.

I don't bet against anyone, what I do is I bet based on what I believe. If the public is betting on A and my prediction is telling me to go with A, that's what I'm gong to do and if they are gong for A and my mind is in B, I will go with B. What they think and believe is their concern and not mine to worry. It's not even good to get because of hype and what other people believed in, it doesn't makes you a better independent gambler, you mustn't rely on what everyone thinks.

One thing I like about gambling is that people can bet independent on the same event and still makes money regardless. Like I  can bet on a game that Manchester City is going to win and another gambler can bet on Manchester City will win by 2.5 goals. I may still go with Manchester City to win first half, I may decide to bet on Manchester City to win by scoring the first goal. With this, there are plenty of ways to make money from betting without relying on public opinion.

[promise444c5]

what type of betting ? When it comes to sports betting , majority of might actually be right but that doesn’t mean you won’t see a tangible number betting on the opposite, so you just have to make your research before joining the party..infact, you can even be the neutral guy / combining multiple selections.
when it comes to casino game, some do show majority and minority decisions, it’s left to you to pick a side, it’s either you follow side A or B or C…and hope for one to win .

[icebar]

I want to know the details on what triggers your decision before placing the bet, not just the basic “because the public is on it.”

can we share some insights here, maybe we’ll pick up new ways to spot real value plays.

In betting, the outcome of the bet is not what is commonly expected. I have observed this issue very well for a long time where bets go against the general public sentiment. Again, in some bets, it is one thing at the beginning, it is different in the middle and in the end the result may be the same again. It is good to keep yourself outside of public expectations sometimes. I think those who keep themselves outside of public expectations and engage in risky bets will have an increased chance of winning the bet. You should place bets by putting yourself at some risk.

[livingfree]

There are times that your instincts just tells you to go with an option that might seem funny to others but at the end of the day you might end up winning your bet. In gambling there's nothing that's impossible, even the more outrageous option that doesn't make sense to other gamblers has a chance.of playing out. Betting against the public sometimes isn't an easy choice but the results are always worth the risk

I agree, I do experience that for several times that even the public is going with the team that's most likely about to win.

But my instinct sometimes tell me to go against them and that's just for the sake of being challenged and enjoying the game with that kind of bet.

I think if we're going to do this, we have to do it only for fun and so as not to hurt our pockets and feelings when we lose.

[Raflesia]

I personally prefer intuition and instinct because even if the bookmakers and the public make the same selection on one side but when personal instinct wants to be on a different one, of course it is not a problem, it's just that the risk may be a little bigger because the probability we have is much smaller than the public has.

This condition is a little difficult but sometimes the odds become more favorable when we succeed against the public even though the conditions of the bet are a little difficult because apart from the intuition we have, in the end this condition must have luck affecting as well.
I remember the biggest odds in the world cup when Germany faced Japan because the time even for the initial odds of Japan was more than 13 and when they fell behind before the comeback even the odds were more than 50.