Do you bet against the public? let’s talk about it

[HONDACD125]

i know abou this so-called betting against the public strategy. I kinda get the idea behind it like when the majority is leaning one side, the line tends to move and value might appear on the other. But I’d like to hear how others here actually apply it in real betting situations.

What specific factors do you look at before deciding to fade the public? Is it the percentage of bets vs. money or sharp line movement, or some team hype?
I want to know the details on what triggers your decision before placing the bet, not just the basic “because the public is on it.”

can we share some insights here, maybe we’ll pick up new ways to spot real value plays.

Real sports bettors don't follow the crowd, I mean, who makes their bets based on what the public is doing? If you are not very knowledgeable about a sport, and you don't generally know which side is stronger, or have no experience to decide whether a certain game is going to have a specific number of goals, etc., then sorry to say, you are not fit to be a sports bettor, because you can't base your decisions on where the majority leans, that's just not how sports betting is done, and if someone is doing it that way, they are basically playing a guessing game, that's it.

A real bettor, someone who is dedicated and focused, will always do their homework and make their decisions based on their own understanding backed by statistics and real data, and not based on gut feelings and public's reaction or favoritism. Even if the whole public is against one side, but stats say otherwise and you know it, you should go for what you think is right. That's how you do it.

[adultcrypto]

Betting against the market comes with a lot of risks thats why i always try as much as I can to ensure that my stakes are moderate whenever I'm making much decisions...but doing this sometimes can be a wise move, when you do the opposite of what the casino expects you to do you might end up outsmarting them...an example of this is betting on the underdogs to win to win the favorite.

If one is to make win huge amounts in gambling then such a person should learn how to go against the conventional way that the Casino expects us to bet.one thing that I have learned as a gambler is not to follow the crowd in betting in the favorite games that others are betting. Most times people game based on feelings especially when teams that they are supporting are playing.

Betting on the popular team should be what following the public is, not about emotions which can be deceptive sometimes. If you always bet on the team with the lower odd, there are days you will win and there are days you will have bad luck and lose seriously. But on average, you will win more than you lose depending on how well you are able to screen those games before selecting them for a parlay. Betting against the big team is actually risky that is why they are also given bigger odds.

[EluguHcman]

What specific factors do you look at before deciding to fade the public? Is it the percentage of bets vs. money or sharp line movement, or some team hype?
I want to know the details on what triggers your decision before placing the bet, not just the basic “because the public is on it.”

There is nothing much about it. I either don't just literally intend to bet against the crowd rather, I keep up to the algorithms that should give me winning.

I don't even care the direction of where the masses bets on. If they bets towards the direction that my instincts feels is the winning side, then I don't have to Ignorantly bet against them but if they bets towards the direction I don't believe will bring me wins, then I will bet against them.

In all, betting against the crowd without analytical facts is never a  good decision.

[batang_bitcoin]

In all, betting against the crowd without analytical facts is never a  good decision.

Sometimes, it's luck and worth it. And that's what a real gamble is all about, knowing that there are analytical facts or research that you've done and you still want to go against them, you've got the nerve to do that because you know that it's going to be worth it after all. But with the risk that it has got, you also have the balls that the chance of you winning that kind of bet is very low. So yes, it's not a good decision but we're gambling and if you've decided to do that, you're in it for you to see how it will go.

[Orpichukwu]

Betting on the popular team should be what following the public is, not about emotions which can be deceptive sometimes. If you always bet on the team with the lower odd, there are days you will win and there are days you will have bad luck and lose seriously. But on average, you will win more than you lose depending on how well you are able to screen those games before selecting them for a parlay. Betting against the big team is actually risky that is why they are also given bigger odds.

The reason it’s not always a great strategy, regardless of whether you’ll win more is that since those odds are mostly small, you’ll either have to stake it with huge amounts or combo it with other games with lower odds too, and the more games you add in the parlay, the more your odds increase but that’s also how much your chances also decreases in the same way, but either ways, it’s still pretty risky. Because if you decide to go with high stakes, you might win a few but just one loss would be enough to clear off the ones you’ve won previously. And if you go for a parlay, it only means you actually wont get to win as often as you would have done when it was just a single game.

[Btcdeybodi]

i know abou this so-called betting against the public strategy. I kinda get the idea behind it like when the majority is leaning one side, the line tends to move and value might appear on the other. But I’d like to hear how others here actually apply it in real betting situations.

I don't listen to the public whenever i want to bet a game, the only time i pay attention to what they are saying is when am confused about a particular event that i want to add to my parley. Sometimes following the voice of the masses also do helps because i could remember during the match between PSG and Bayern Munich, the public were saying that PSG will beat Bayern Munich to stupor but i never listened to them because i checked the current statistics of both teams and saw that Bayern munich will win and they actually won that match.

[Numeral]

[...]
can we share some insights here, maybe we’ll pick up new ways to spot real value plays.

If you do use this strategy, based on some information about the team, the hype may well be appropriate, but you need to analyze each situation specifically. In principle, you can choose not to do this, but after analyzing the upcoming game as usual, you can play against the public, which does happen. And if there were any ways to identify games that are easier to predict than others, all other things being equal, then bookmakers would do something to avoid working at a loss, otherwise many would get hold of this information and exploit it to the full. Here, you can only act individually, rather than looking for some miracle secrets to consistent wins.

[|MINER|]

Obviously, the statistically stronger team certainly has a greater chance of winning. Above, I only spoke from a rational perspective, and using statistics as a reference for decision-making isn't always entirely accurate. This means that luck also plays a role. When a stronger team loses to a weaker team due to a small, inadvertent mistake on the field, it means they and those betting on them are unlucky.
But ultimately, the most important thing, in my opinion, is to bet responsibly, regardless of whether you follow the hype or analyze it yourself.

Yes, the last main point is that when we bet on a match, we use our brains and then bet. It is not that we bet on a team because most people are betting on it or that we will always lose because a team is behind in weak banking.
Because the result of a match is based on many factors and then comes the outcome. When a strong team has their main players out of the squad due to injury or any other reason, then it can be seen that even the strongest team has a chance of losing. So, considering everything, we should do our own analysis and then place bets.

[Zanab247]

i know abou this so-called betting against the public strategy. I kinda get the idea behind it like when the majority is leaning one side, the line tends to move and value might appear on the other. But I’d like to hear how others here actually apply it in real betting situations.

I don't listen to the public whenever i want to bet a game, the only time i pay attention to what they are saying is when am confused about a particular event that i want to add to my parley. Sometimes following the voice of the masses also do helps because i could remember during the match between PSG and Bayern Munich, the public were saying that PSG will beat Bayern Munich to stupor but i never listened to them because i checked the current statistics of both teams and saw that Bayern munich will win and they actually won that match.

As long the public are not the one giving you money to gamble, you don't need to pay attention to what they are saying, it can make you to take wrong decision to lose your money on the bet. Anything that will make you to listen to masses voice before you can place your bet, it will cause you to make some mistakes that will make you regret when the results is out, because you will be hearing wrong advise from some people that call themselves professional gamblers and they have not achieve meaningful benefit from gambling once.

 Not only public predicted for the favor of PSG to win the game between PSG vs Bayern Munich, majority of people took the decision based on PSG performance in the UEFA champion league but Bayern Munich manage to win the game.

[Dickiy]

Obviously, the statistically stronger team certainly has a greater chance of winning. Above, I only spoke from a rational perspective, and using statistics as a reference for decision-making isn't always entirely accurate. This means that luck also plays a role. When a stronger team loses to a weaker team due to a small, inadvertent mistake on the field, it means they and those betting on them are unlucky.
But ultimately, the most important thing, in my opinion, is to bet responsibly, regardless of whether you follow the hype or analyze it yourself.

Yes, the last main point is that when we bet on a match, we use our brains and then bet. It is not that we bet on a team because most people are betting on it or that we will always lose because a team is behind in weak banking.
Because the result of a match is based on many factors and then comes the outcome. When a strong team has their main players out of the squad due to injury or any other reason, then it can be seen that even the strongest team has a chance of losing. So, considering everything, we should do our own analysis and then place bets.

Yes, the point is, anything can happen on the field, and this can lead to different outcomes, regardless of whether you support the stronger team or not. The tragedy of a player suffering an injury on the field can certainly have a negative impact on a team, which in most cases usually causes the team to lose its balance, especially if the player is a key player.

The point is, bet according to your own beliefs. If you know how to read statistics, use that skill to analyze. But it's also free. I mean, you're free to make your own predictions or follow the public's perspective, as long as you don't regret the results.

[Hazink]

Sometimes I just see that as paying too much attention to unnecessary details. I make my predictions without even looking at what the public are mostly betting on. The thing is, I make my prediction based on data and leave the rest for luck to decide.

There are only some exceptions, which is, at some point, a certain team is overrated to win a particular match. I might see them as sponsored promotion to divide bettors attention and I will shift my bet to the other side.

[OgNasty]

i know abou this so-called betting against the public strategy. I kinda get the idea behind it like when the majority is leaning one side, the line tends to move and value might appear on the other. But I’d like to hear how others here actually apply it in real betting situations.

What specific factors do you look at before deciding to fade the public? Is it the percentage of bets vs. money or sharp line movement, or some team hype?
I want to know the details on what triggers your decision before placing the bet, not just the basic “because the public is on it.”

can we share some insights here, maybe we’ll pick up new ways to spot real value plays.

In investing, this is called taking a contrarian viewpoint and it is something I often do.  With gambling I refer to is as betting the odds and not the game.  When a certain risk reward scenario exists, it is worth taking a loss in order to potentially receive an oversized gain.  I think this management of the odds is the only real way you can win long term gambling.  The same might not be true with investing, but if you do hit a homerun, it is worth all the missed swings.

[abaeze]

Mainly bet based on my research, I don't pay attention to what other people are doing. I think betting based on what other people say is stupid, no one can be sure which team will win by betting, so I bet based on my own research rather than relying on others, it gives me satisfaction, I mainly gamble for fun and I never expect anything more than that.

[dimonstration]

Mainly bet based on my research, I don't pay attention to what other people are doing. I think betting based on what other people say is stupid, no one can be sure which team will win by betting, so I bet based on my own research rather than relying on others, it gives me satisfaction, I mainly gamble for fun and I never expect anything more than that.

It’s not about relying to other’s opinion but betting against the majority that gives biased odds.

Let’s say a match is marked as 1.1 odds for favorites while the team is not that strong that he can 100% beat the opponent team. Normally this happened on sports team that a huge fan base.

Fans usually bet on their favorite team regardless how weak they are in reality.

[stadus]

Let’s say a match is marked as 1.1 odds for favorites while the team is not that strong that he can 100% beat the opponent team. Normally this happened on sports team that a huge fan base.

Fans usually bet on their favorite team regardless how weak they are in reality.

No bookmaker would give that kind of odds (1.10) if the team was not considered strong. Maybe in your own analysis they are not, but for the line provider they are, and that is enough to convince the public that this is the team to bet on.

Now it is your turn to see if there is real value there, because it is your job as a bettor to determine the true probability. If you are right, you get the profit.

[(Hummus)]

A lot of times i do this but I prefer to bet low because the chances of winning from such games can be very low. But when odds are too catchy or obvious it could be a trap, for those that have been in the system for a while we have seen how small odds end up as  a loss in soem bets we stake on. Once in a while it's good to do the unexpected, the bookmakers don't always expect gamblers or bettors to take such risks

[Fortify]

i know abou this so-called betting against the public strategy. I kinda get the idea behind it like when the majority is leaning one side, the line tends to move and value might appear on the other. But I’d like to hear how others here actually apply it in real betting situations.

What specific factors do you look at before deciding to fade the public? Is it the percentage of bets vs. money or sharp line movement, or some team hype?
I want to know the details on what triggers your decision before placing the bet, not just the basic “because the public is on it.”

can we share some insights here, maybe we’ll pick up new ways to spot real value plays.

This is not the sort of talent that can be easily taught and anyone who can make such profitable plays on a consistent basis is unlikely to think like the average person. Like being a successful trader you need to identify traits or concepts that go against what everyone else is thinking. Be careful assuming that the public is some intelligent mass or crowd, because we've seen people do a lot of dumb things in recent years, even if just by the tiniest of margins - electing Donald Trump (twice) and the UK leaving the EU could be considered terrible choices that won by a tiny margin. Generally you will be going up against a bookmaker and they come to their conclusion by using all sorts of sophisticated algorithms that don't necessarily rely on public opinion.

[Powerjumboo]

i know abou this so-called betting against the public strategy. I kinda get the idea behind it like when the majority is leaning one side, the line tends to move and value might appear on the other. But I’d like to hear how others here actually apply it in real betting situations.

What specific factors do you look at before deciding to fade the public? Is it the percentage of bets vs. money or sharp line movement, or some team hype?
I want to know the details on what triggers your decision before placing the bet, not just the basic “because the public is on it.”

can we share some insights here, maybe we’ll pick up new ways to spot real value plays.

Everyone's betting strategy may be different but the difference I see in my betting strategy is that when a match is played between two teams I analyze the strengths and weaknesses of the players of both teams I do not bet on the team that is much stronger and the team that has more public support I do bet on the team that has less public support I do not participate in betting on the team that does not have public support Apart from that I avoid betting on matches when I think both teams are very strong and both teams have a chance of winning because in such a situation betting involves more risk. Moreover I do not bet on the odds between two teams in a match because the odds can be more or less depending on the performance of the team This is my sports betting strategy which I follow most of the time.

[|MINER|]

Yes, the point is, anything can happen on the field, and this can lead to different outcomes, regardless of whether you support the stronger team or not. The tragedy of a player suffering an injury on the field can certainly have a negative impact on a team, which in most cases usually causes the team to lose its balance, especially if the player is a key player.

The point is, bet according to your own beliefs. If you know how to read statistics, use that skill to analyze. But it's also free. I mean, you're free to make your own predictions or follow the public's perspective, as long as you don't regret the results.

Actually it is already proved in reality like in the la Liga or the European super League tournament we have sawn that the top strongest team like real Madrid or Barcelona or if I also mention the Liverpool we definitely saw many of their match they lose against with those team who were much weaker from them.. and if you look back to few years ago then I don't remember in FIFA world cup we saw that Argentine team lose against the Saudi Arabian team.
All these equations confirm to us that where the name of the bet is mentioned, luck decides the ultimate result, so we should basically bet according to this. With our own analysis.

[liuka]

Let’s say a match is marked as 1.1 odds for favorites while the team is not that strong that he can 100% beat the opponent team. Normally this happened on sports team that a huge fan base.

Fans usually bet on their favorite team regardless how weak they are in reality.

No bookmaker would give that kind of odds (1.10) if the team was not considered strong. Maybe in your own analysis they are not, but for the line provider they are, and that is enough to convince the public that this is the team to bet on.

Now it is your turn to see if there is real value there, because it is your job as a bettor to determine the true probability. If you are right, you get the profit.

Maybe with the odds that the bookies give to the team, for example, 1.50 - 1.70, the team is not too strong but with odds of 1.10 the team is strong and can win easily,
It can be said that with odds of 1.10 it is worth betting because the win rate is almost 90%.
There may be an occasion when betting 1.10 the team loses even though it is sure to win but this rarely happens with small odds.