Betting on events far away in the future

[9ja Amaka]

i can't say different from Tryninja because 10 years is very far in reality, are you going to make it till then, unforseen circumstances must be considered, however regardless of that, I still believe that one is going to probably loss the bet even with the high odds that will bring on it, but if one eventually gets to win the bet inflation will probably has risen which means the value of the potential win will be very different when it is finally received. Bupt for real I will never bet on such thing or even 1 year will be very had

I also agree with what both of you said.
Age needs to be considered when making decisions like this. 10 years is a decade, anything can happen by then, death is unexpected, etc.
I cannot predict an event that is yet to happen in a decade or more. Waiting for the outcome will be like waiting for the coming of Christ.
Inflation is another problem, although if the bet is in a crypto casino, is it possible that the casino will still be functioning in that number of years? Maybe yes, maybe no.

[vanesha]

The next 10 years are something I truly cannot determine—this is what I call a gamble. Whether in 10 years I become very rich or poor, whether I am still healthy or sick, whether I get married and have children or not—everything is still being wagered. If I knew the future, then it wouldn’t be a gamble, it would just be living it. But ready or not, it still has to be risked. This is not a gambling bet, but a bet on my future over the next 10 years.

[mikel_012]

I don't trust leaving money in a website for 10 and 20 years for a payout. I think 3 years is the max you can have for a bet to finish and to get paid because so many things can change in 30 years that it's impossible to participate in events that far away. Even the currency you use can change, countries can change with war, it's very unpredictable to wait for this long.

I certainly wouldn't gamble that way. I prefer to invest the money and receive the returns, which I know will be paid, rather than waiting 10 years to find out if I "got lucky" and got my prediction right. Gambling is already risky, imagine gambling to find out the result in two, five, or ten years? To me, that's nonsense!

Imagine 25 years like AGI until 2025

It's so far away I can be dead in 25 years

[Fivestar4everMVP]

I think this topic hasn't been discussed here (at least a Google search yielded no result):

What do you think about betting on events which are far away in the future? "Far away", may be something like at least 10 years away.

Matter of fact first, I don't even bet on things like this, now coupled with the fact that I will have to wait 10 years or over for an outcome to know if I won or lost makes matters worse, I won't ever tie my hard earned money down this way no matter how small..

And another thing also is that it depends on how much to be won but it will still affect the bettor negatively as it may end up creating false hope.
Imagine you bet $10 to win $100,000 dollars (which I know isn't possible for events like this but just using this as an example), as a poor person, you carry that mindset that you are going to own an hundred thousand dollars in 10 years coming, this can make a person become unserious with their now source of income, they become slotful, lazy and uninterested in doing anything (well).
They literally start living like there is a guarantee that they are Going to win that money, now imagine that the 10 years finally comes and they end up losing, this could lead that person to committing suicide cus they did feel like the lost the real money 😂

[retreat]

Betting on events that are so far in the future is riskier because the uncertainty is so great and the risk of you losing money is higher. Even though betting on events like that looks more attractive because of the potential for large profits, the risk of losing capital is also much higher compared to regular betting. So for people who want to bet on events 3.5, 10, or more years in the future, they need to consider that they are betting cold money and must be prepared to accept the possibility of total loss of the money they bet.

[OgNasty]

I learned my lesson betting on future events in 2011 when the prediction market I was using ran off with everyone’s funds. Now I don’t bet distant future events and I am very careful who I trust with my deposits.

[EluguHcman]

I learned my lesson betting on future events in 2011 when the prediction market I was using ran off with everyone’s funds. Now I don’t bet distant future events and I am very careful who I trust with my deposits.

This is one threatful effect of betting in such a long distance future bets is what most people can may not even put to considerations with the risk of distance over reliance because, a betting platform may seem nice and reliable in a short term while long term trusts can be uncertained.

Meanwhile... Betting on event like the proposed of the OP (10) is not a time to come even at the nearest sunset. So lot of risk such as the betting site remains in existence or you (bettor) may even stay alive and healthy to still follow up the activity where the bet result is to come in the 10 years time. Just too risky.

[_act_]

Age needs to be considered when making decisions like this. 10 years is a decade, anything can happen by then, death is unexpected, etc.

Even if we should not talk about age, there are other means that people can die, not everyone will die old, so it is not even about only age.

Most people will prefer short time results and win or lose the money. Any bet that will be more than a month, I can not go for it. My preference are bets that are not more than a day.

I cannot predict an event that is yet to happen in a decade or more. Waiting for the outcome will be like waiting for the coming of Christ.
Inflation is another problem, although if the bet is in a crypto casino, is it possible that the casino will still be functioning in that number of years? Maybe yes, maybe no.

As long as it is a centralized platform, they can stop working at anytime.

[ZeroVinsonN]

I think this topic hasn't been discussed here (at least a Google search yielded no result):

What do you think about betting on events which are far away in the future? "Far away", may be something like at least 10 years away.

A couple of examples:

- Will there be humans on Mars before the year 2050?
- Will we see a long distance maglev train before 2036? (Japan is building one scheduled for 2034 afaik ... but we all know that such pioneer projects often take more time)
- Will there be quantum computes capable of hacking a Bitcoin private key until 2035?
- Will we see fully capable humanoid robots with AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) until 2050?

But also things like:

- Will (country X) be able to provide housing for all its citizens until 2040?
- Will medicine progress increase life expectancy for people with (medical condition Y, e.g. cancer) by more than 20% in the next 10 years?

I think personally such bets could be fun, of course to risk a few dollars only. But even better: they could give some insights, like gathering the sentiment of techno-optimism or pessimism in a certain year.

Not a bad idea but I would much rather invest in bitcoin or even stocks and wait for that long then place a bet like this one, that said the idea would make more sense if you were not necessarily trying to get rich from it but just trying to predict some crazy events, the interest is in the outcome not your potential winning, when you look at it like this then it suddenly becomes very interesting especially with other people doing it so now you want to figure out which one of you had the better prediction.
If it's going to be about the winning though than maybe if there is some kind of mechanism is place the potential winning adjusts to inflation meaning that regards of what wave of inflation that happens you potential winning will retain the same value even though the price changes, let's say your potential at the time of the bet is $100k today but inflation might reduce the value of that money in the future into $10k today so it adjusts itself so that the potential winning maintain it's value of today that way your winning in 10 years might become $1m as long as that $1m is worth the $100k of today.

[peter0425]

10 years away? You'll lose more with inflation than any potential win.

I can understand betting on something like "winner of 2026 UEFA" with crazy odds for a team that is still off radar... but not something that is only going to resolve in 2, 3, 5, or 10 years. You don't even know if the website you're betting on is going to be around by that time.

I understand betting on sports events because there are at least established rules so we know the limits of both the league and the athletes. As opposed to technical developments like robots or economic development and even medical discoveries, those things are hard to predict unless you’re actually working in the said industries and you’ve got some insider knowledge. But sports? lots of the information are already in the internet and out in the public.

[iBaba]

Betting on events that are so far in the future is riskier because the uncertainty is so great and the risk of you losing money is higher. Even though betting on events like that looks more attractive because of the potential for large profits, the risk of losing capital is also much higher compared to regular betting. So for people who want to bet on events 3.5, 10, or more years in the future, they need to consider that they are betting cold money and must be prepared to accept the possibility of total loss of the money they bet.

That's it. If you say you are going to bet on events that are far in the future be rest assured that betting on those nature of events is far more riskier than any other kind of betting because there is even more uncertainty that is added to the already existing uncertainties in your gambling and that increases the chances of you loosing your money even more than usual. Even though sometimes it may also look attractive because of the possibilities of you making big or gigantic profits, but the risks that are involve in you losing your capital is far more significant than with regular betting.

My advise is if you have decided in anyway to bet on events that are three to 10 years or more into the future then you should also have the basic understanding that you are going to be staking cold money meaning you must also accept and be ready to accept the possibilities of losing the entire amount of money you must have staked on it because your chances in my own calculations will be around 10-20% and that is very low.

[internetional]

10 years away? You'll lose more with inflation than any potential win.

I can understand betting on something like "winner of 2026 UEFA" with crazy odds for a team that is still off radar... but not something that is only going to resolve in 2, 3, 5, or 10 years. You don't even know if the website you're betting on is going to be around by that time.

Unexpected to see a comment like this on a Bitcoin forum. It feels like things here should work the opposite way. You make a small bet you don't mind losing now - and if it plays out later (in ten or twenty years), you get a massive win.

Huh? What's so unexpected about it?

Long-term practice proves that the growth in demand for bitcoins significantly outpaces the rate of their inflation. Therefore, the dilution of value over time is absolutely not something that participants of a Bitcoin forum should genuinely fear or worry about.

[TryNinja]

Long-term practice proves that the growth in demand for bitcoins significantly outpaces the rate of their inflation. Therefore, the dilution of value over time is absolutely not something that participants of a Bitcoin forum should genuinely fear or worry about.

I was obviously talking about USD. Most big casinos with long term events settle everything in USD.

Just because we are in a bitcoin forum, doesn’t mean we should deny the reality and assume everyone bets with BTC. I myself keep my BTC in my cold wallet and gamble with USDC.

[d5000]

Many have written that 10 years are too long. However, in most occasions you probably would not need to wait that long, because if the timeline is realistic, you will already know that much before the deadline, and the odds will go up. While if it's not realistic at all, then also after half of the time you will very likely see the odds dropping to very low values and you can already "give up" on that bet.

Let's say we bet on the Humans on Mars example:

- The bet is created in 2026 with a deadline of 2040, when there are only vague plans about future mars missions, although NASA says they "could" send humans to Mars as early as the 2030s. At the start the odds are: 15% Yes / 85% No.
- In 2028, NASA announces a more concrete plan to send humans to mars in 2038. The odds increase to 25% / 75%. If you have invested in Yes and sell, then you already have made a decent profit of more than 50%, after only 2 years.
- In 2030, doubts emerge that the plan is realistic. Odds go back to 15% / 85%. Some bought "No" shares in 2028 and can now also make some profit.
- In 2031, things change again: A concrete timeline for 2038 is announced. The first spacecraft is being built and will be test launched in 2033. Again increase to 25 / 75.
- 2033: the test launch succeeds. Odds increase to 40 / 60. Those who bought in 2026 can sell now with more than 100% profit.
- 2036: Everything is going well, NASA has already sent humans into Mars orbit. Odds increase to 70 / 30.

In contrast, if until 2030 there are no concrete plans it is extremely unlikely that the 2040 deadline can be fulfilled. The odds will then fastly go to close to 0 / 100 and the "No" buyers can profit.

[Anayochukwu]

I'm not a patient gambler, I love to bet on a game that the results will be out in two to three days which is the main reason why I don't bet on long parlay that will take a week or more to end the games.

Betting on an event in the next ten years to me is not gambling anymore, because nobody knows if you will be alive to claim your wins if it happens that your prediction was correct. I would have forgotten that I placed such a bet since gambling is the last thing in my mind to think of.

Betting on an event in the next five years is not gambling, I wouldn't talk of ten years because that doesn't look like gambling anymore. Obviously gamblers want quick result, which is very important because there is nothing good than seeing your result without waisting your time. To be honest I didn't see anything reasonable to gamble on this ten years event because you might likely forget about the bet, in fact there is many things involved in this bet, so it's better to bet on the game that wouldn't waist your time.

[Lida93]

Just finished reading about a post in the forum about the value of the Iranian currency how it's  collapsing in value which has erupted public outrage. And this isn't a thing that affects just the Iranian economy, every country's currency is experiencing the inflationary pressures. So if I was to be sure of betting on any event then just like some persons, I would be betting on fiat devaluation being nonstop in the next 10 years. Any other events am not quite sure.

I learned my lesson betting on future events in 2011 when the prediction market I was using ran off with everyone’s funds. Now I don’t bet distant future events and I am very careful who I trust with my deposits.

Certainly, this is a notable issue to consider because some platforms existence can't even be guaranteed in the next decade from now, only that we don't know which exactly. A short period bet is a way for precaution.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

I can not take such bet, but if I would, it's going to be on my terms, I would be allowed to make the bet multiple times to the number of times I want. For example, if I'm to make such bet right now which is just to try luck, I am not going to stake with a huge amount, maybe just $1-$5 stake, then I will and should also be allowed to stake on that same event 1 year or few months to the date it's supposed to be due. If they can agree with my own idea, then I will bet on an event that is 10 year away. My first bet will be with just a small amount, then the last bet would be with a high amount since by then,  it will be more obvious what the result would be, although the odds must have drastically reduced but I don't mind.

The concept of making long time bets in the range of ten years is not that stupid at all since more time can be observed to work out the trend. This is a business idea that you are putting across on how to minimise risk using minimum amount of investment and multiply it as you find the opportunities of winning getting clearer. This plan cushions the capital against the uncertain market volatility but very few service providers will be ready to open the market over such a long period of time as a result of the liquidity risk to them.

This will make it apparent that this approach makes gambling appear almost more of a planned investing choice that considers security of the assets instead of gambling in the dark. Your firmness on only playing when these conditions are satisfied is an evidence of high degree of rationality that spares us causes of ridiculous losses as a result of rules that do not favour players.

I did thought about that too, and I guess it's just a few or non, that will consider to open such a market, because, what is even the odd size they are going to put there. If they will open such market, there's or there should be lots of conditions to it because of some circumstances. What if the bettor dies or what if the company crash? Many things to think of.

[Judith87403]

Long-term bets such as these would be interesting when they are accepted as a thought of experiments, not a financial tool to be taken very serious. The real worth isn't the payout but that which is revealed concerning different beliefs, risk tolerance, ad the way people get to assess uncertainty. The compell partaking to think in probabilities, timelines, including incentives instead of headlines.

Resolution is considered messy and that is said to be the downside. Changes in definitions, evolving of technology in ways unexpected, and outcomes may be disputed after some years. Liquidity is equally poor so long little number of people desire to lock funds away for more than 10 years.

In as much as the stakes are little and the regulations are so clear, they could be fun and useful intellectually. They operate best just as sentiment gauges, rather than as investments.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

Gambling on event is not the challenge here, but we need to understand why we should not be involved in any other thing that may cost of lost of interest over a long duration of time, as some will say it, long expectation could be disappointing, when there is no certainty, so why should we put ourself in to such conditions for too long and expecting.

[Zigabel]

Betting on things like this will be some really good fun but my challenge i will be having with it will be time i will have to wait before the results will be out for my bet to be settled, that will make me not want to continue with such bet, regardless of the amount i am hoping to win in the end of the game, i would have rather said that if these would be settled by some assertive results gotten form statistics of current happenings, it will be much more better even as i know that will not be a good standard of judgment because it can be manipulated, i would rather risk it than having to wait for number of years to win a bet, i will rather go and invest the money i wanted to use for the bet.