Betting on events far away in the future

[eisen33]

The idea itself is interesting, but how can it all be organized properly? It was correctly stated here that inflation must be combated, as it will eat away part of the money in 5-10 years. The second point is who will act as the guarantor of the transaction. Trust alone is not enough; convincing arguments are also needed so that people can, in theory, bet on an event with a long-term perspective.

I think it would be worth conducting a survey to see which players are willing to make such bets. Personally, I wouldn't make such long-term bets because I don't see the point. Unless the odds were so high that it would make me rich in 10 years. But I don't think that would be much different from the bets I make now. And if I'm not betting on the final results of championships, and this is only a bet for a year or even less, then longer-term bets definitely wouldn't be attractive to me.

[Jatiluhung]

Actually, this is quite interesting as long as we are not betting in fiat currency, but in bitcoin, to avoid inflation. Wait, this means that we really have to think about our position when we win, so that the prize is guaranteed to still be valuable.
Or it could also be in fiat currency, but with betting prizes that have options that we can choose from now or from the moment we place the bet.

For example, I bet $3 today on that future bet, but I choose the prize if it succeeds in the form of gold. The site can provide various options, ranging from bitcoin, gold, and even other things.
So this also considers which assets we think will still be valuable in the future.

[Free Market Capitalist]

What do you think about betting on events which are far away in the future?

It's not worth it. There's a big element of excitement in betting. Betting on something that might happen decades from now has little or no excitement. Plus, even if you're young, you don't know if you'll be dead by then.

[davis196]

10 years away? You'll lose more with inflation than any potential win.

I can understand betting on something like "winner of 2026 UEFA" with crazy odds for a team that is still off radar... but not something that is only going to resolve in 2, 3, 5, or 10 years. You don't even know if the website you're betting on is going to be around by that time.

I agree. It's not just the inflation. What if the betting platform/prediction market does bankrupt or exit scams all the users? I'm not sure about Polymarket to keep existing somewhere around 2035. Who the hell has the patience to wait for 10 years until the event happens and he either loses or collects his profits? Most gamblers have a short attention span. We live in the "instant gratification" era. Most gamblers want profits NOW. Nobody has patience nowadays. If such "far away in the future" bets were offered by the bookies very few people would be interested in spending their money and waiting for years. That's why the bookies and prediction markets most likely won't offer such future bets.

[KTChampions]

I think this topic hasn't been discussed here (at least a Google search yielded no result):

What do you think about betting on events which are far away in the future? "Far away", may be something like at least 10 years away.

A couple of examples:

- Will there be humans on Mars before the year 2050?
- Will we see a long distance maglev train before 2036? (Japan is building one scheduled for 2034 afaik ... but we all know that such pioneer projects often take more time)
- Will there be quantum computes capable of hacking a Bitcoin private key until 2035?
- Will we see fully capable humanoid robots with AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) until 2050?

But also things like:

- Will (country X) be able to provide housing for all its citizens until 2040?
- Will medicine progress increase life expectancy for people with (medical condition Y, e.g. cancer) by more than 20% in the next 10 years?

I think personally such bets could be fun, of course to risk a few dollars only. But even better: they could give some insights, like gathering the sentiment of techno-optimism or pessimism in a certain year.

Stupid bets and a ridiculous deadline, no? If I want to throw away a few dollars, I can just throw them away - why "bet"? If we're talking about significant amounts, it's even more pointless, since the timeframe is so long. If we truly believe in something, it's better to find stocks on the stock market that reflect these events and buy them. For me, an acceptable forecasting period is a year (for example, to guess which team will become the champion in the upcoming season) or a longer period, but with the condition that the bet can be executed at any moment, since the predicted outcome will occur.

[rdluffy]

I joined this thread thinking you were going to talk about betting at the beginning of a championship on who would be the champion, something like one season, approximately 10 to 12 months 

I was already going to say that it's a long period to bet on, imagine now 10 years, hahaha
It might even be interesting to see a trend, like betting on Polymarket, but I wouldn't bet on something like that, it's too long, a lot can happen in a few years

Actually, Polymarket would be a service that fits this requirement because you can sell your shares at any time
My vote is Nope 

[Popkon6]

Yes, of course everything will change, I believe it, because I see things now that I didn't see ten years ago (in the past) and ten years away (in the future) we will definitely see more and more technological advancements. Because the whole world is able to move forward with their research, but it is also true that this will happen in the case of betting. Because the games that I am betting on at the moment will definitely be possible to bet on in 2040 with greater technological advancements. So technology will improve, it is true, and with the improvement of technology, betting websites will improve.

[summonerrk]

I think this topic hasn't been discussed here (at least a Google search yielded no result):

I think personally such bets could be fun, of course to risk a few dollars only. But even better: they could give some insights, like gathering the sentiment of techno-optimism or pessimism in a certain year.

I think I could consider similar bets on events over a longer date range. And I'd definitely bet on countries like the CIS having problems with corruption, wealth distribution, and roads. One Russian poet said that even if he woke up in Russia in a few hundred years, there would still be problems with alcohol and theft. Well, this problem is common to half the countries on earth, if not 90 percent. And it's precisely these negative outcomes that I would bet on on platforms like Polimarket and the like.

[Nathrixxx]

It's not about betting this time, but the time frame duration is too long that one couldn't have afford to wait this long for such to be implemented or not, the time frame is what cause the spoil, but betting on occasions like that isn't something bad at all, we have to be more sensible and sensitive to whatever thing we may play and see that we can achieve our goal in playing without losing interest.

[Ronsbit]

A 10-year bet is a long time, and I was thinking of its side effects and reasons, being that if the bettor is not available before the end of the bet time, what would be the resolution? If it happens, the bettor won the bet, and nobody has an idea that the bettor was involved in such a bet, do you not think that would be a closed chapter?

This would definitely be a new scope for betting platforms that would subscribe to this package, because they would hold onto it with regard to the time frame for which the bet exists to make more money from bet deposit and I think there would also likely be some manipulative or rigged scenarios for this long-term betting.

[bakasabo]

What motivates a person to make a bet, which results he will find out only when several years will pass? Curiosity only? Make this bet as reminder to check life-time event? People done place such bets to earn, because that is not logical. People unlikely do that for fun, because will something that is fun for you today, will have same "fun" effect in many years? Jokes and activities that were fun for me years ago, are no longer fun today because I grow up, I get smarter, things that are interesting for me changes, I change. My position is that future event betting is a waste of money.

[Marvelockg]

- Will (country X) be able to provide housing for all its citizens until 2040?
- Will medicine progress increase life expectancy for people with (medical condition Y, e.g. cancer) by more than 20% in the next 10 years?

There are degree to the kind of future event that you can predict on and most times, it's only on things that are not too far away that you can easily predict on. Even if there are platforms that are available to be used in making those kinds of predictions, there's an high chance that every prediction you make will be false because there's an high level of unpredictability of future event.

In 2040, what's the probability that any country can even provide housing for her citizens? It's almost equivalent to zero. The uncertainty around it is too large that predicating on such event is almost like throwing money into thine air.

[Rockstarguy]

10 years away? You'll lose more with inflation than any potential win.

I can understand betting on something like "winner of 2026 UEFA" with crazy odds for a team that is still off radar... but not something that is only going to resolve in 2, 3, 5, or 10 years. You don't even know if the website you're betting on is going to be around by that time.

It is even possible to be a game that one might not even live to see because in 10 years a lot of things happen; life itself is a gamble. Gambling like this will really be worth it if the win is paid in bitcoin, but if it’s in fiat, you don’t really know what the value of fiat will be like in 10 years' time.

I think in games like this a lot needs to be considered, and I think gambling sites stand to benefit a lot because they make their money instantly when one places such bets.

[$crypto$]

Polymarket should provide this kind of bet with future predictions --- 10 to 25 years ahead.

This kind of bet does not make sense to me because it is too long, if they like to just bet with the amount of BTC 0.0001 and then forget about the next 10 years, but remember not to forget what the platform name is because the next 10 years will change a lot where you might forget about the bet.

Doing prediction bets with a long time is not right, don't like it at all unless you try entertainment maybe it doesn't matter, I myself will not try something waiting for a long time in betting can be boring.

[devlin85]

It seems absurd to me to place a bet that will be resolved in 10 years, not because of the idea of the bet itself but because of everything that living through a 10-year period implies; there is no guarantee of anything, in a decade life can change a lot, and nothing even guarantees that you will be alive in three years. Besides, for me the essence of a bet is that the outcome has relevance to you within a reasonable time frame.

[Finestream]

I can’t really trust a platform where I have to lock my money just to place a bet. What I’m afraid of is that they might go bankrupt before the bet is even settled. That’s a risk I don’t want to take.

One year is already too long for me. The only futures bet I’ve ever done is on the NBA Finals, picking which team will win. Other long-term betting markets don’t really appeal to me, and I don’t think I’ll try them. I’d rather put my money into Bitcoin instead. At least with investing, I still hold the coin. And if something goes wrong, I have no one to blame but myself.

[Awaklara]

I think personally such bets could be fun, of course to risk a few dollars only. But even better: they could give some insights, like gathering the sentiment of techno-optimism or pessimism in a certain year.

If the goal is just to have fun, it’s not a problem. But bets like that won’t be offered by bookmakers. You can make bets like that and write them down as bets with your small circle of friends. And you can set it to last for the time you agree on. I wouldn’t do it if my goal were gambling. Even for political bets, I ignore them. I prefer sports betting, which is actually part of my hobby. It’s more enjoyable for me.

[Die_empty]

I think it would be worth conducting a survey to see which players are willing to make such bets. Personally, I wouldn't make such long-term bets because I don't see the point. Unless the odds were so high that it would make me rich in 10 years. But I don't think that would be much different from the bets I make now. And if I'm not betting on the final results of championships, and this is only a bet for a year or even less, then longer-term bets definitely wouldn't be attractive to me.

From the responses so far, it is certain that most respondents would not be willing to wait for a decade to get results from a bet. Why would I wait for a long time when I can bet on events and get my results within a few minutes? Impatience, concerns about inflation, and the existence of the betting platform seem to be the most popular concerns. I also share the same thoughts with you, any part that is above one year is not for me.

[Doan9269]

Had it been the range is still between a week to a month, it could have been better, but going as far as 10 years on a wait to see whether what we gamble for will come as a win or lose is too far, we could have achieved a lot and things would have changed for better than the waiting, it does not worth it honestly to have waited this long, we should be able to gamble and also see the result of what we played as soon as possible, so we can take our minds off it.

[YOSHIE]

What do you think about betting on events which are far away in the future? "Far away", may be something like at least 10 years away.

No, I really hate and get bored of making future bets, whether it will happen or not, I prefer to place short-term bets.
Example:
I take the example of soccer betting, usually well-known leagues such as the English League, the Italian League, the best clubs often play on weekends, for me I prefer to place bets on those days, for example Saturday and Sunday.

What's more, placing a bet as you said.

- Will there be humans on Mars before the year 2050?
- Will we see a long distance maglev train before 2036? (Japan is building one scheduled for 2034 afaik ... but we all know that such pioneer projects often take more time)
- Will there be quantum computes capable of hacking a Bitcoin private key until 2035?
- Will we see fully capable humanoid robots with AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) until 2050?

There is no guarantee that we will live until the next 10 years.
For me, take the one in front and closest, that's better.