Betting on events far away in the future

[Findingnemo]

We can find such bets and some even crazy ones on polymarket like Jesus's second coming.

To answer the question, NOPE. I won't do that. I consider myself a patient soul but 5 or 10 years that is too long and there will be no way I can remember that on this day I bet $10 to predict this event. So I will stick with my fantasies for that.

[Bluedrem]

I don't think people will accept this type of gamble, I think most people will try to avoid it. Statistically, most of the gamblers we see around the world are inexperienced in technology, especially those who are addicted to gambling, they don't have much idea about the real world. The bets you are talking about, I think only those who do research on these will be willing to make such bets. Personally, if I were to bet on the things you mentioned, I would never bet on the third and fourth ones. Because even if AGI technology is actually possible, I don't think it will be revealed on the world. For the safety of humanity, I don't think AGI should be allowed to spread. And if I lose this bet, I think I will lose the third bet too because if AGI is possible, then quantum computers will also be possible, which will be able to hack Bitcoin's private key.

[Sammye3]

On what platform would all the outcomes be? Because there is every possibility that it might not be in existence by then or maybe they could go bankrupt or out of market so the possibility of this happening is slim but it's quite a thoughtful initiative..

Personally, for me I don't have that patience for such long term bets and given these kind of outcome that could possibly not happen even before one's life ends on earth. Aside the options mentioned, there are more likely outcomes like winners of a competition within the range of 2-5 years that could be plausible.

It could be just for fun and that's understandable but the time range should not be that long as the fun could turn sour and forgotten if it takes too long, fun is more enjoyable when your mind is in order to accept the results and not run out of anxiety or curiosity on the long run.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

I can see that a number of people already are talking about it as a no, to be honest even an addicted gambler will not submit to play this kind of bet, because of the time frame, this is excessively too much time interval, we should be able to understand that gambling comes with a desire and aspiration in which each everyone of us targets before playing our bets, while taking this long may not be a welcome idea by most of us.

[qwertyup23]

I would never consider betting on events far away in the future given that there are so many factors to consider.
Imagine this- it's already difficult to bet on current events given that you have to consider multiple factors at once; what more to future events in which everything can change in an instant?

To give you a concrete example: would you bet on who will become the next USA president on the year 2035? It's so difficult to grasp on who to even consider given that there may be dark horses or even persons you wouldn't expect to be the president by that time.

We can find such bets and some even crazy ones on polymarket like Jesus's second coming.

To answer the question, NOPE. I won't do that. I consider myself a patient soul but 5 or 10 years that is too long and there will be no way I can remember that on this day I bet $10 to predict this event. So I will stick with my fantasies for that.

HAHAHA that's a good one! The funny thing is, the moment that the second coming would happen, we're already dead by that point and money is the least thing I would even consider caring at that time.

[Alphakilo]

I can see that a number of people already are talking about it as a no, to be honest even an addicted gambler will not submit to play this kind of bet, because of the time frame, this is excessively too much time interval, we should be able to understand that gambling comes with a desire and aspiration in which each everyone of us targets before playing our bets, while taking this long may not be a welcome idea by most of us.

Funny enough is that I am already agitated with a certain bet I made at the middle of this December without knowing it would play out in January. I clearly didn't look at the date of the matches I booked and they are to be played around 20th of January.
With this much anticipation, I wonder how it would be like waiting for 10years for a bet to play out.
My answer is No, because the variables involved are too much and there's no guarantee I would win.
It is already hard to DCA for a 10year period not to talk of playing a bet that may not come out with a sure win after a 10year waiting period.

[JunaidAzizi]

The idea is not bad, and it seems more entertaining and fun than the one we are doing on a daily basis. However, the thing is, if you are betting on future events, for example, for 50 years, then the person who places the bet will receive the results or not. The average lifespan of a human is now around 50 or 55 years. If a person is already 30 or 25 years old and places a bet for 40 or 50 years, then how does that make sense? It will not be fun, in fact, it will become more boring over time.

[internetional]

10 years away? You'll lose more with inflation than any potential win.

I can understand betting on something like "winner of 2026 UEFA" with crazy odds for a team that is still off radar... but not something that is only going to resolve in 2, 3, 5, or 10 years. You don't even know if the website you're betting on is going to be around by that time.

Unexpected to see a comment like this on a Bitcoin forum. It feels like things here should work the opposite way. You make a small bet you don't mind losing now - and if it plays out later (in ten or twenty years), you get a massive win.

[viljy]

The main doubt for such long-term bets is the uncertainty about whether there will even be a platform in the future on which the bet was placed, or the jurisdiction (country) where this happens. And of course, you can just die before the deadline. What then? There are also questions about inheritance. I do not even know if any jurisdiction has inheritance laws in this area. Laws on the inheritance of rights and obligations (e.g. loans) exist, but this is somewhat different. And finally, there's just the patience factor. Who has enough of it? Or suddenly, five years later, you need money, and it's invested in a bet. Well, for example, for treatment after an accident.

[TryNinja]

What remind me this situation is not your keys, not your coins the risk to lose is huge due to many negative situations that might happen in future.

Even if we can say the idea is great still the real issue here is if the platform will exist, hacking issue is also one factor need to consider and if they have enough liquidity to pay if the value of Bitcoin shoot up to 50x or even more. If that situation happen even if they are legit they might be force to turn as scam especially if they cannot pay their gamblers anymore.

Locking our coins for 10 years is also like we agree to give them a free loan, which they can use that amount to earn more money while us get nothing and wait if we win on the bet we made or not.

Yeah, at 10 years I can't see them just keeping your BTC locked in getting dirt on a vault. Maybe they will lend your BTC and then turns out the counterparty is fraudulent (has happened many times), has no valid collateral, and your bet is now on a chapter 11 case (i. FTX, celsius). Surprise, you now got two bets: original "will X happen in 10 years" + will you get refunded in 10 years and with what haircut due to the many legal fees...

10 years away? You'll lose more with inflation than any potential win.

I can understand betting on something like "winner of 2026 UEFA" with crazy odds for a team that is still off radar... but not something that is only going to resolve in 2, 3, 5, or 10 years. You don't even know if the website you're betting on is going to be around by that time.

Unexpected to see a comment like this on a Bitcoin forum. It feels like things here should work the opposite way. You make a small bet you don't mind losing now - and if it plays out later (in ten or twenty years), you get a massive win.

Huh? What's so unexpected about it?

[panjul07]

I wont place a bet for such a long of waiting period because of some possible reasons such as;
- The site may not even last longer, so even if our bet is a win then what we can get if the betting site is already closed before 10years?
- We may forget it after 10years so there is a possibility that we forget to take the winning.

[danherbias07]

I do bet on the winner of the NBA Finals, but I have not yet tried betting that far. 10 years? Damn! You might have forgotten that you bet on that, or worse, some gambler might have already died not knowing they won a bet.

Bets like who will be the next Pope. Yeah, while we just had one. Well, he is really against gambling, so someone might try to harm him.
Well, this started when Polymarket made the hype. More and more unusual prediction markets are coming out. I am not against it because some of them are actually fun. But I might not waste some dollars for a 10-year waiting bet. Yes, I am cheap.

[Porfirii]

We aren't talking about private pension funds, but they are closely related to this topic. Are you the kind of person who would save every month/year so in the future you'll have a better retirement? or you prefer to spend or have it available in the present, because the future is uncertain?

Months ago, some very active users in my local board, me included, started a bet on Bitcoin's price at the end of the year. After announcing the winner, we have decided that so many months is too long a wait. Personally, I don't consider myself to have little patience, but everything has a limit, and the OP's bet is beyond that limit IMO.

[JunaidAzizi]

I'm not a patient gambler, I love to bet on a game that the results will be out in two to three days which is the main reason why I don't bet on long parlay that will take a week or more to end the games.

Betting on an event in the next ten years to me is not gambling anymore, because nobody knows if you will be alive to claim your wins if it happens that your prediction was correct. I would have forgotten that I placed such a bet since gambling is the last thing in my mind to think of.

Yup, that is the thing, there is no guarantee of life, whether he will be alive for that much time or not. If he is alive for that time and loses, then it will be more guilt and regret for him because, first, he lost money, and second, he wasted many years. And if he doesn't survive, then what's the benefit of that bet? He neither enjoys it nor gets any profits. The best and most fun is instant betting placing a bet and getting results at that time, that's the real meaning of gambling.

[EarnOnVictor]

-s
-Snip-
I think personally such bets could be fun, of course to risk a few dollars only. But even better: they could give some insights, like gathering the sentiment of techno-optimism or pessimism in a certain year.

There's nothing fun about this bet. I think the brains behind it are doing it to fool people, and also play on their intelligence.

First, no one knows tomorrow. Many started this year, but didn't end it. So, why not gamble on what's feasible in time?

Again, who knows if the gambling platform would survive that long? From all angles, it doesn't make any sense to me.

[promise444c5]

10+ years is a lot of years, and a lot could happen within that particular timeframe.. I wouldn’t even think twice .

So much happens in a year already, but 2–3 isn’t that bad to consider, depending on what the bet is actually all about. Anything above is meh, but it’s still fun when I can just place a small bet and forget I ever bet on anything.. it's just that it won’t give me something tangible even if everything is still in place in the future.

[uchegod-21]

Sounds like fun but here are my concerns

• what if the gambler dies and the results show he won his bet, who will claim the reward?
• what if the betting platform gets affected by global crisis and shut down?

10 years is a long time to place a bet, I don't have that patience as I consider it not good for serious gambling.

[Abu-Naim]

Sounds like fun but here are my concerns

• what if the gambler dies and the results show he won his bet, who will claim the reward?
• what if the betting platform gets affected by global crisis and shut down?

10 years is a long time to place a bet, I don't have that patience as I consider it not good for serious gambling.

The gamblers we have now are not patient; they are like futures traders, they want quick money, so I don't think it is possible to predict something of even ten years, not to even talk of more than 20 years to come; what if you are no more, who will claim the bet if you win it?

No condition is permanent, and this life we have is also not certain; we can go anywhere, which is why we plan on something within a short period of time, even though we never know if we will live to see the outcome.
Betting on future events is not for people like me because I like my bets to always end within a short period of time, I cant afford waiting for long and still lose.

[finaleshot2016]

Well, I like these kinds of bets, like with good analysis and education stuff, more things to be considered but it's very long-term commitment. If it's for fun, I think it's possible a lot of people will bet starting from now until results shown, imagine how many people will join the hype but since majority of us are gambling for possible quick money, some will just ignore it. Like what we're discussing in different topics, gamblers are prone to addiction, they're reckless and impatient, they want outcome a few hrs after betting, they don't want to commit long time just for a single bet. That's the reason why majority of gamblers are losing money, they just risk everything all at once.

[I_Anime]

I'm not a patient gambler, I love to bet on a game that the results will be out in two to three days which is the main reason why I don't bet on long parlay that will take a week or more to end the games.

Betting on an event in the next ten years to me is not gambling anymore, because nobody knows if you will be alive to claim your wins if it happens that your prediction was correct. I would have forgotten that I placed such a bet since gambling is the last thing in my mind to think of.

lol Is that even possible to bet on something that will happen in the future like 10 years later , must gambler won’t be interested in such , they prefer seeing their outcome fast . That’s why many play casino games because they usually show the outcome on time , sometime the waiting for the result of the game would even make one to feel unease due to the uncertainty in gambling.