Betting on events far away in the future

[liuka]

I can see that a number of people already are talking about it as a no, to be honest even an addicted gambler will not submit to play this kind of bet, because of the time frame, this is excessively too much time interval, we should be able to understand that gambling comes with a desire and aspiration in which each everyone of us targets before playing our bets, while taking this long may not be a welcome idea by most of us.

Betting now and waiting for the next 10 years is like investing. Gambling should be fun not waiting! Because some of these people refuse not to do it, many of the concerns they have expressed here so for me the explanation is enough and will not bet with a long time to see the results.
Can't imagine how the results will be, whether the platform will be honest or already blurred of course there are many concerns.

[Emitdama]

We can find such bets and some even crazy ones on polymarket like Jesus's second coming.

To answer the question, NOPE. I won't do that. I consider myself a patient soul but 5 or 10 years that is too long and there will be no way I can remember that on this day I bet $10 to predict this event. So I will stick with my fantasies for that.

Lol that's crazy. It must be extremely profitable for the websites to offer such markets because imagine someone wagers $1000 for an event that will be decided in 20250, then the website uses that money for 25 years and probably earns more than the bet itself, if it even wins lmao.

Imagine if a website has 10,000 players who gamble an average of $20 on such things, that's like 200 grands of free money that the website can use for 20 years!

But are there people who wager on such things? I personally don't think so.

[d5000]

What if you put up 0.1 BTC @ 2.00 at $8700 (current price of $87k) and after 10 years you win 0.2 BTC worth $2m (BTC at $10m)? Would the casino still pay you up? I just don't see this being a good idea.

Yep, it's kind of a challenge. Although I don't believe BTC will go up that much for the next 10 years (would love being wrong though heh).

Best would be some partial decentralization, with an escrow controlled by the casino platform but you could see the amount on-chain not being manipulated (with the casino fees of course deducted from the beginning on).

For example: of the case of humans on Mars, what count for a target achieved?

Of course that would have to be done in an "auditable way", just like you wrote. My definition would be "first human on Mars surface (not only in orbit)". Many of the predictions I've seen on existing platforms actually contain such clauses.

Even with your examples, if you think something will happen, you can start investing in it now.

In general I agree, often investing can be an alternative. However, investing first is much less straightforward: in what to invest if you're betting on a Mars landing for example? If you're betting on an aerospace company, this company could go bankrupt. So I think this is a niche which could make sense. And as others have written, there are already such bets and platforms, only that 10 years is a bit longer than most current bets.

what if the gambler dies and the results show he won his bet, who will claim the reward?

The same thing than if a trader dies and his heirs can get access to his CEX account. Casinos offering this should offer a native way to claim, but the trader of course could also provide account access data to an heir, above all if he's invested a substantial amount in the bet.

what if the betting platform gets affected by global crisis and shut down?

I've addressed this here - there should always be a "plan B" for an alternative resolution. Another idea would be to pay out the average value up to 1 month before the closure announcement (to avoid the value being manipulated in the last days).

[Smartprofit]

For some reason, I remembered the joke about Hodja Nasreddin (from Soloviev's book).🙋

One day, Hodja Nasreddin told the customers at a teahouse that he had volunteered to teach a donkey (belonging to the Sultan himself) to read in 20 years. People shouted, "Hodja Nasreddin, are you crazy? It's impossible to teach a donkey to read! Now the Sultan will execute you!" Hodja Nasreddin replied, "I received an advance payment of 200 gold coins and a beautiful donkey from the Sultan! And 20 years is a very long time. In 20 years, someone will definitely die. Either me, the donkey, or the Sultan himself!"😃

This, in my opinion, is the problem with betting on events that will occur in the distant future. Those interested in them may simply not live to see that moment. And they will never know how it all ends.

[Churchillvv]

Of course I haven’t seen a thread like this one, however the major reason why such bet may not hold water is the fact that life isn’t guaranteed so for someone to anticipate the celebration of win for over ten years. However, some people may have the luck to seen the 10 years but they will be very disappointed at the end. Because the long awaited result will not favour them, regardless of that some rare events may not even come through so users who will bet on that will not it loss their investments

[rachael9385]

I think this topic hasn't been discussed here (at least a Google search yielded no result):

What do you think about betting on events which are far away in the future? "Far away", may be something like at least 10 years away.

A couple of examples:

- Will there be humans on Mars before the year 2050?
- Will we see a long distance maglev train before 2036? (Japan is building one scheduled for 2034 afaik ... but we all know that such pioneer projects often take more time)
- Will there be quantum computes capable of hacking a Bitcoin private key until 2035?
- Will we see fully capable humanoid robots with AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) until 2050?

But also things like:

- Will (country X) be able to provide housing for all its citizens until 2040?
- Will medicine progress increase life expectancy for people with (medical condition Y, e.g. cancer) by more than 20% in the next 10 years?

I think personally such bets could be fun, of course to risk a few dollars only. But even better: they could give some insights, like gathering the sentiment of techno-optimism or pessimism in a certain year.

I haven't though about such before, but do you know how long 10 years is because if you place such bet and wait that what makes you think the economic situation would be favourable? you might actually found out that if you eventually win the bet the value of that amount wouldn’t be the same as what It is today. betting on future events especially years away from now has lots ot downsides

[allthebitandbobs]

- Will there be humans on Mars before the year 2050?

Never thought about it but such betting options could be fun. But, I guess it requires a lot of rules because how do you determine humans on mars? Like how many people must reach there before you consider it a yes or no.

The most I have ever bet on far stuff is like betting on US elections when it was Trump vs Biden. But usually I don't bet on events that are more than a few days away. Even when betting on soccer, I prefer to do it when the game is close otherwise the money is stuck for longer for no good reason.

I can't recall the name of website but they started things like price of Bitcoin in 2026-2027 and such. Now even stake has some of these markets so it's good. But I still prefer betting to sports/events that will conclude in next few days.

[Fortify]

I think this topic hasn't been discussed here (at least a Google search yielded no result):

What do you think about betting on events which are far away in the future? "Far away", may be something like at least 10 years away.

A couple of examples:

- Will there be humans on Mars before the year 2050?
- Will we see a long distance maglev train before 2036? (Japan is building one scheduled for 2034 afaik ... but we all know that such pioneer projects often take more time)
- Will there be quantum computes capable of hacking a Bitcoin private key until 2035?
- Will we see fully capable humanoid robots with AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) until 2050?

But also things like:

- Will (country X) be able to provide housing for all its citizens until 2040?
- Will medicine progress increase life expectancy for people with (medical condition Y, e.g. cancer) by more than 20% in the next 10 years?

I think personally such bets could be fun, of course to risk a few dollars only. But even better: they could give some insights, like gathering the sentiment of techno-optimism or pessimism in a certain year.

I'm not sure why you'd even bother, as you're basically just doing long term lending to the casino and they could probably make far more profits from people if they were to offer odds on such long range events - they'll invest that money into different things in the ten years it takes to reach the possibly payout. You're better off sticking with bets that have a time horizon of one year, maybe two years back. That being said there are people out there making a profit on things like horse racing by picking odds out a few days ahead of the race and then covering those bets as the markets fluctuate so close to the race, you might see a great horse offered at 10x three days before an event and by the event day it suddenly drops to 3x odds.. huge profit margin in that.

[Slow death]

In my case, I wouldn't bet on something that will only happen in 10 years. Events that are very far away are very unpredictable, and it wouldn't make much sense for me to put money on an event whose outcome I would only know in 10 years, knowing that there's a risk I won't be alive in 10 years. And if I'm not alive in 10 years, it will be worthless to have won the bet, since dead men don't use money. That's why, even in sports betting, I don't like to bet on games that will only happen 10 days later.

[Ivystar5]

i can't say different from Tryninja because 10 years is very far in reality, are you going to make it till then, unforseen circumstances must be considered, however regardless of that, I still believe that one is going to probably loss the bet even with the high odds that will bring on it, but if one eventually gets to win the bet inflation will probably has risen which means the value of the potential win will be very different when it is finally received. Bupt for real I will never bet on such thing or even 1 year will be very had

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

I can not take such bet, but if I would, it's going to be on my terms, I would be allowed to make the bet multiple times to the number of times I want. For example, if I'm to make such bet right now which is just to try luck, I am not going to stake with a huge amount, maybe just $1-$5 stake, then I will and should also be allowed to stake on that same event 1 year or few months to the date it's supposed to be due. If they can agree with my own idea, then I will bet on an event that is 10 year away. My first bet will be with just a small amount, then the last bet would be with a high amount since by then,  it will be more obvious what the result would be, although the odds must have drastically reduced but I don't mind.

[Agbamoni]

I think this topic hasn't been discussed here (at least a Google search yielded no result):

What do you think about betting on events which are far away in the future? "Far away", may be something like at least 10 years away.

Polymarket has a similar type of event to predict.
Betting on an event that will happen in the future is not the problem. The problem is, will you be alive to see them happening? What if everyone forgets about the bet, and if you win, who will take the potential payout?
So many things come to mind when I see such events on Polymarket, yet you see people betting on them. Perhaps they dont mind, they just do it for fun.

[MRY]

I can not take such bet, but if I would, it's going to be on my terms, I would be allowed to make the bet multiple times to the number of times I want. For example, if I'm to make such bet right now which is just to try luck, I am not going to stake with a huge amount, maybe just $1-$5 stake, then I will and should also be allowed to stake on that same event 1 year or few months to the date it's supposed to be due. If they can agree with my own idea, then I will bet on an event that is 10 year away. My first bet will be with just a small amount, then the last bet would be with a high amount since by then,  it will be more obvious what the result would be, although the odds must have drastically reduced but I don't mind.

The concept of making long time bets in the range of ten years is not that stupid at all since more time can be observed to work out the trend. This is a business idea that you are putting across on how to minimise risk using minimum amount of investment and multiply it as you find the opportunities of winning getting clearer. This plan cushions the capital against the uncertain market volatility but very few service providers will be ready to open the market over such a long period of time as a result of the liquidity risk to them.

This will make it apparent that this approach makes gambling appear almost more of a planned investing choice that considers security of the assets instead of gambling in the dark. Your firmness on only playing when these conditions are satisfied is an evidence of high degree of rationality that spares us causes of ridiculous losses as a result of rules that do not favour players.

[robelneo]

What do you think about betting on events which are far away in the future? "Far away", may be something like at least 10 years away.

The only permanent thing in this world is change, betting 10 years is unthinkable we are not sure if we are still here if that happens, who will collect your winnings if you win and if the site will still there to collect your winnings, totally waste of money, if you put that money in the bank there's a chance to grow then letting it sit and wait for tem years for a better that you are not sure of, If you are 50 when you bet you can forget your bet if you are hit by alhzheimer.

[EluguHcman]

What do you think about betting on events which are far away in the future? "Far away", may be something like at least 10 years away.

This will be fun betting on future events that may not really be about games or entertainments rather than a look up to a certain criteria of technology emergence in the future.
But the question based on the range of distance, can anyone actually afford to make a bet of such future events in 10 years time?

I think the distance is just too much for anyone to afford to bet on. Perhaps life can be inevitable but commonly, there are also people who can afford betting on such while leaves the rest for the future to decide.

[AmoreJaz]

What do you think about betting on events which are far away in the future? "Far away", may be something like at least 10 years away.

This will be fun betting on future events that may not really be about games or entertainments rather than a look up to a certain criteria of technology emergence in the future.
But the question based on the range of distance, can anyone actually afford to make a bet of such future events in 10 years time?

I think the distance is just too much for anyone to afford to bet on. Perhaps life can be inevitable but commonly, there are also people who can afford betting on such while leaves the rest for the future to decide.

This kind of betting line you can find in futuur.com or maybe in polymarket. But betting on such, nope! That is too far for me in my opinion. A lot of things can happen in that period. I can understand 1 or 2 years. But 10 years, I believe that's a very long period of waiting. You may even forget that you bet on that line. Or who knows, the site is already abandoned by the time it is over.

[Somto9Light]

I haven't though about such before, but do you know how long 10 years is because if you place such bet and wait that what makes you think the economic situation would be favourable? you might actually found out that if you eventually win the bet the value of that amount wouldn’t be the same as what It is today. betting on future events especially years away from now has lots ot downsides

Same here, and I wouldn't make such bet. 10 years is way too much for one to predict what will happen then, we still find it hard to predict what will happen in the near future talk more of 10 years. I think I might just make ordinary Prediction without betting with money because doing that it's like a waste of money, and you're right I'm still wondering what makes him think that the economic situation will be favourable. For me I have never thought about things changing from bad to good more especially this economic aspect, I feel that it is going to be worster than this In the future.

[judas]

Well.. it would have been possible to only speculate that such things will happen in the future, but betting with money may not be possible. Emagine betting $100 to get results in 10years, isn't that insane? Who knows the life Spam of the person who is betting for 10years , he could have been dead before the results is out. you can only bet on something that may or may not happen within a short time frame, not something you bet and even forgot if you ever bet.

Bets can be placed or assumptions made about the near future. Putting money down and betting on such things doesn't seem very realistic to me. İt doesn't seem plausible. It would only be a casual conversation among friends about whether humans will settle on Mars in 2050 or not, I don't think anything more than that would happen. Betting companies wouldn't take such bets either, because who would invest money in something like that?

[lombok]

Well.. it would have been possible to only speculate that such things will happen in the future, but betting with money may not be possible. Emagine betting $100 to get results in 10years, isn't that insane? Who knows the life Spam of the person who is betting for 10years , he could have been dead before the results is out. you can only bet on something that may or may not happen within a short time frame, not something you bet and even forgot if you ever bet.

Bets can be placed or assumptions made about the near future. Putting money down and betting on such things doesn't seem very realistic to me. İt doesn't seem plausible. It would only be a casual conversation among friends about whether humans will settle on Mars in 2050 or not, I don't think anything more than that would happen. Betting companies wouldn't take such bets either, because who would invest money in something like that?

This long term prediction markets are generally employed as marketing gadgets or opinion polls, as opposed to music as the genuine monetary representative. Embarking on stashing up wealth on pure speculation by locking down assets over years cannot be part of a wise wealth management strategy of any individual. I observe that it is impossible to calculate the probability due to the uncertainty of the technological and geopolitical variables over decades. Business logic requires an assurance on the settlement of transaction within a reasonable time to enable redistribution of capital to fresh and more tangible and quantifiable opportunities.

[r_victory]

I certainly wouldn't gamble that way. I prefer to invest the money and receive the returns, which I know will be paid, rather than waiting 10 years to find out if I "got lucky" and got my prediction right. Gambling is already risky, imagine gambling to find out the result in two, five, or ten years? To me, that's nonsense!