Polymarket.com - Bets on any events (politics, sports, crypto markets, and more)

[Mahiyammahi]

As a new user at Polymarket, I'm a little confused. I have a few questions: Why did my deposit amount decrease?
I deposited around $30 and only received around $29.90.
If that's due to slippage, will there be another transaction fee for cashing out winnings? It seems like winnings aren't automatically credited to your wallet but must be claimed manually.

Maybe it's because of they show in dollar , while usdc is slightly pegged . Yeah you need to claim manually, you can also sell your winning. Auto settlement has some delay , it's likely 1/2min slow. If you just sell you can claim instant. It's also manually you need to do.



Anyone has any idea why my portfolio showing 7$+ even though I have no available balance. I have no open position  no open orders. So it should not show in my portfolio. This happens when I setup my bot, it's like some of funds just stucked there don't know how to settle all those.

[Hispo]

What kinds of bets you can find on Polymarket! It turns out you could even bet on how many tweets Elon Musk would post in a week. It's hard for me to imagine that anyone would actually place a bet on something like that. After all, the outcome depends entirely on the decision of a single person, and there is no element of randomness involved. Nevertheless, someone managed to win $83,700 (after betting $339), which means there were people - not insiders - who put up that amount of money.

Well, at least it wasn't millions!

Honestly, that is why those markets are so attractive for people to bet in, because there is no actual random number generator choosing the destiny of our money.
So people could even go to the extent of analizing Elon Musk, his behavior, how busy he is likely to be in during the next week. Whether there will be more political happening next week for him to tweet about, among other factors which can be tracked if one has the willpower and also time to do it.

If there is no randomness, then it is matter of time and observation to make money.

[internetional]

I read in a Russian-language Telegram channel that someone bet $14 million on Polymarket that no Iranian missile would hit Israel on March 10. The criterion for determining whether the event occurred was whether it was reported in the media. They would have won, but one media outlet published a report that a missile had struck. To avoid losing, they demanded that the journalist delete the article within 86 minutes and threatened that otherwise they would hire hitmen to settle the score with the journalist.

I don’t know whether this is true or not, but it's very easy to imagine something like this. If the outcome depends on media reports, newsrooms end up in a dangerous situation when someone has placed large bets on an event.

(I can't even imagine what it's like for athletes, who are probably subjected to similar pressure. They must receive so many threats that no psyche could withstand it!)

[Hispo]

I read in a Russian-language Telegram channel that someone bet $14 million on Polymarket that no Iranian missile would hit Israel on March 10. The criterion for determining whether the event occurred was whether it was reported in the media. They would have won, but one media outlet published a report that a missile had struck. To avoid losing, they demanded that the journalist delete the article within 86 minutes and threatened that otherwise they would hire hitmen to settle the score with the journalist.

I don’t know whether this is true or not, but it's very easy to imagine something like this. If the outcome depends on media reports, newsrooms end up in a dangerous situation when someone has placed large bets on an event.

(I can't even imagine what it's like for athletes, who are probably subjected to similar pressure. They must receive so many threats that no psyche could withstand it!)

That is actually pretty nuts...
But It is not surprising, if you think about the huge amount of money you are talking about and the fact there is very powerful people in Russia, then it would make sense someone would be willing to kill a person who works for a media outlet.

It only makes me think how easily betting market can be manipulated by people with huge amounts of money, or political influence.

In a fair world that person would have lost their money.

[NotATether]

I read in a Russian-language Telegram channel that someone bet $14 million on Polymarket that no Iranian missile would hit Israel on March 10. The criterion for determining whether the event occurred was whether it was reported in the media. They would have won, but one media outlet published a report that a missile had struck. To avoid losing, they demanded that the journalist delete the article within 86 minutes and threatened that otherwise they would hire hitmen to settle the score with the journalist.

I don’t know whether this is true or not, but it's very easy to imagine something like this. If the outcome depends on media reports, newsrooms end up in a dangerous situation when someone has placed large bets on an event.

(I can't even imagine what it's like for athletes, who are probably subjected to similar pressure. They must receive so many threats that no psyche could withstand it!)

No crying in the casino 🙂

He should be arrested though for threatening a journalist.

The news should not be manipulated by whales who want their own version of events to settle.

[EarnOnVictor]

I don’t know whether this is true or not, but it's very easy to imagine something like this. If the outcome depends on media reports, newsrooms end up in a dangerous situation when someone has placed large bets on an event.

This can't be true.

First, nothing of such can happen hidden, by virtue, only one journalist cannot report it, as journalism is not isolated, even if it's to buy information. Second, the journalist will highly likely be working for a known media, so the information is no more a secret. Third, for those people who are threatening the journalist, for them to know, how much more those who would have known?

In betting context, I believe no one can be threatening a journalist for what has been reported, especially something that is being witnessed by many.

[Haunebu]

I read in a Russian-language Telegram channel that someone bet $14 million on Polymarket that no Iranian missile would hit Israel on March 10. The criterion for determining whether the event occurred was whether it was reported in the media. They would have won, but one media outlet published a report that a missile had struck. To avoid losing, they demanded that the journalist delete the article within 86 minutes and threatened that otherwise they would hire hitmen to settle the score with the journalist.

I don’t know whether this is true or not, but it's very easy to imagine something like this. If the outcome depends on media reports, newsrooms end up in a dangerous situation when someone has placed large bets on an event.

(I can't even imagine what it's like for athletes, who are probably subjected to similar pressure. They must receive so many threats that no psyche could withstand it!)

Read about that earlier and was not surprised at all since this shit was somewhat common when it came to sports bets before, but these risky prediction markets with complicated T&C made it more common which is why they are a double edged sword.

These braindead morons know damn well that they are gambling with their money and still stoop to these levels like whiny little kids. This stuff is easily one of the worst parts of gambling with prediction markets.

[bitcoinchaserteam]

I am not a representative of the platform. I am just opening this thread to get answers to my questions. The following information is based on what I found in public sources.


Polymarket is a prediction market where you can place wagers on the outcomes of various events. Each bet is a wager between two users.

Example.

• One user offers "odds" 2:1.
  He says: "I want to make a wager that event A will happen for a total of $1, half of which I will put in, and the other half will be put in by the opponent."
  And he posts the corresponding order (puts $0.5 into the smart contract).
• Another user offers different "odds".
  He says: "I can wager that event A will not happen, but I am only willing to put in $0.4 provided that the opponent puts in $0.6."
  And he posts the corresponding order, depositing $0.4 into the smart contract.
• As soon as someone accepts the terms of one of the posted orders, the deal is considered made.

Unlike casinos and bookmakers, here there is no "house" - all bets and settlements are done P2P between users, and the platform does not profit from losses. You can sell your "bet" if there are buyers. There are no fees from Polymarket for this - only crypto network fees.

Polymarket supports BTC deposits, but these BTC, like any other assets, are converted to USDC.e (on Polygon), and these tokens are what get credited to the balance.
Bets are always placed in USDC.e. Winnings are also in USDC.e, and withdrawals are only in USDC. Bitcoins deposited will not be returned to you.

On Polymarket, you can bet on
- Politics: Fed decisions, appointments in the US, candidates 2028/2032.
- Sport: Super Bowl 2026, NBA 2026, UCL, EPL, World Cup 2026.
- Crypto: forecasts on BTC and ETH price levels, corporate actions of MicroStrategy.
and many other events.


Here is what I don't understand and would like to figure out with the help of the forum:

1. Who receives the bitcoins and other assets that we deposit?

2. What is this USDC.e? Who issues it? Does anyone guarantee redemption of USDC.e, i.e., its exchange for anything? (At least for USDC. It is clear that back to bitcoins - definitely not.)

3. The smart contracts that distribute winnings based on the event outcome - are these immutable contracts or proxy contracts? If proxy contracts, who has the authority to replace the core logic, and how is abuse of such authority prevented?

4. Polymarket is sometimes called a decentralized platform. Does this mean anyone can create their own event and start accepting wagers on it, even outside the web interface - just based on the same smart contracts? Or is permission from some governing center required?

If you have answers or additional questions - let's discuss them.

$14M bet + death threats to a journalist

This is what happens when resolution criteria depends on media reports instead of objective facts. When that much money is on the line and "truth" becomes negotiable, journalism turns dangerous.

Polymarket playing with fire frfr. Betting on war already crosses ethical lines, but when whales can literally threaten to kill reporters to manipulate outcomes? That's not gambling anymore, that's extortion.

Sports betting works because outcomes are clear: ball crosses line = goal. But "did a missile hit Israel?" depends on who reports it and how they interpret it. Too much gray area + too much money = journalists becoming targets.

This needs better resolution mechanisms or these markets shouldn't exist

[Hispo]

...

These braindead morons know damn well that they are gambling with their money and still stoop to these levels like whiny little kids. This stuff is easily one of the worst parts of gambling with prediction markets.

People with lots of money, enough to gamble millions of dollars in the betting market, are usually very entitled and assume the market and the rest of bettors owe them money, just for being taking the risk with those millions of dollars.

Each one of us has the right todo whatever we want with our money, but we need to accept the consequences of our actions when things do not go out way and we lose it all.

Given the amount of money betted on these geopolitical events, that must have been some Russian business person with close ties to the government. Otherwise they would not feel to confident to order to murder of someone and get away with it.

[Taskford]

I read in a Russian-language Telegram channel that someone bet $14 million on Polymarket that no Iranian missile would hit Israel on March 10. The criterion for determining whether the event occurred was whether it was reported in the media. They would have won, but one media outlet published a report that a missile had struck. To avoid losing, they demanded that the journalist delete the article within 86 minutes and threatened that otherwise they would hire hitmen to settle the score with the journalist.

I don’t know whether this is true or not, but it's very easy to imagine something like this. If the outcome depends on media reports, newsrooms end up in a dangerous situation when someone has placed large bets on an event.

(I can't even imagine what it's like for athletes, who are probably subjected to similar pressure. They must receive so many threats that no psyche could withstand it!)

Seems its true because I see lots of article discussing  this issue.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/journalist-reveals-received-death-threats-155436974.html
https://asiatimes.com/2026/03/polymarket-death-threat-raises-stakes-of-reporting-iran-war/

This are reputable news site so it seems that happening is not a hoax. Also its crazy that bettors came to the point on which they made that death threat and attempt to manipulate the result. But guess they didn't succeed and those people end up a loser.

[Vaculin]

Seems its true because I see lots of article discussing  this issue.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/journalist-reveals-received-death-threats-155436974.html
https://asiatimes.com/2026/03/polymarket-death-threat-raises-stakes-of-reporting-iran-war/

This are reputable news site so it seems that happening is not a hoax. Also its crazy that bettors came to the point on which they made that death threat and attempt to manipulate the result. But guess they didn't succeed and those people end up a loser.

There’s a reason why some countries ban Polymarket because of this kind of market they offer. I get that they make money from every market they list, but at least they should avoid betting topics where someone’s life could be at risk.

I’m honestly surprised that a bettor would put $14 million on it. That likely means others also joined that market, and that’s where it gets concerning. You can’t ignore the possibility that some could be syndicates willing to threaten or harm people just to make sure their bet wins.

[dwyane36]

Seems its true because I see lots of article discussing  this issue.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/journalist-reveals-received-death-threats-155436974.html
https://asiatimes.com/2026/03/polymarket-death-threat-raises-stakes-of-reporting-iran-war/

This are reputable news site so it seems that happening is not a hoax. Also its crazy that bettors came to the point on which they made that death threat and attempt to manipulate the result. But guess they didn't succeed and those people end up a loser.

I think that the more popular prediction markets become, the more often such incidents will occur, both in the public sphere and elsewhere. It’s worth noting that there have been quite a few reports in the media recently about how users place a suspiciously large bet ahead of some major event. In other words, there are more and more insiders, since prediction markets are very profitable for them, and I wouldn’t be surprised if some of them would go to any lengths if things suddenly don’t go according to their plan.

[bitmover]

I read in a Russian-language Telegram channel that someone bet $14 million on Polymarket that no Iranian missile would hit Israel on March 10. The criterion for determining whether the event occurred was whether it was reported in the media. They would have won, but one media outlet published a report that a missile had struck. To avoid losing, they demanded that the journalist delete the article within 86 minutes and threatened that otherwise they would hire hitmen to settle the score with the journalist.

I don’t know whether this is true or not, but it's very easy to imagine something like this. If the outcome depends on media reports, newsrooms end up in a dangerous situation when someone has placed large bets on an event.

(I can't even imagine what it's like for athletes, who are probably subjected to similar pressure. They must receive so many threats that no psyche could withstand it!)

Seems its true because I see lots of article discussing  this issue.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/journalist-reveals-received-death-threats-155436974.html
https://asiatimes.com/2026/03/polymarket-death-threat-raises-stakes-of-reporting-iran-war/

This are reputable news site so it seems that happening is not a hoax. Also its crazy that bettors came to the point on which they made that death threat and attempt to manipulate the result. But guess they didn't succeed and those people end up a loser.

That is a complicated situation. It is unfair to blame polymarket, however, such situations should be considered by polymarket in the future when making the criteria.

Maybe they could add something like various reports in the media, not just one report. Then the criminals would have to make multiple threats instead of just one, which would make things much more complicated.

[Haunebu]

That is a complicated situation. It is unfair to blame polymarket, however, such situations should be considered by polymarket in the future when making the criteria.

Maybe they could add something like various reports in the media, not just one report. Then the criminals would have to make multiple threats instead of just one, which would make things much more complicated.

This is definitely complicated for sure. On one hand, Polymarket should accept some form of responsibility for providing such markets with their custom set of terms and conditions while blame falls primarily on such insane gamblers due to which the site deserves less blame on the other hand.

No changes would stop such crazy gamblers which is just one of the inherent risks associated with prediction markets sadly.

[internetional]

There’s a reason why some countries ban Polymarket because of this kind of market they offer. I get that they make money from every market they list, but at least they should avoid betting topics where someone’s life could be at risk.

Are you sure that someone on the Polymarket team actually decides which events get listed for betting and which do not? I asked about this in the original post, but so far no one knowledgeable here seems to have answered.

On their website, I see:

Using decentralized blockchain technology removes the need for a central authority in trading, which fosters fairness and open participation around the globe.

So it seems logical to me that there isn't a single central authority deciding which markets to list and which to exclude.

[Agbe]

I don’t know whether this is true or not, but it's very easy to imagine something like this. If the outcome depends on media reports, newsrooms end up in a dangerous situation when someone has placed large bets on an event.

As someone said it in the first page,  Polymarket has been discussed many times in the forum and all those times, I have not checked the website how it is but I checked the website through the link you provided and really, there are many events to predict. But predicting the Israel USA and Iran war as you is not a good prediction because in the war anything can happen and you bet or stake will lose. The bombing can happen at anytime. We are hearing different reports from News channels and the Media.

[internetional]

For anyone who wants to feel FOMO about Polymarket, I recommend following this Twitter account: https://x.com/RetroValix
He constantly posts interesting finds there - wallets that make big money on Polymarket - and analyzes their strategies.

Here is a screenshot of a typical post.


Impressive, right? If someone places bets at $0.99 and in 99.4% of cases turns them into $1, that means that out of 1,000 one-dollar bets they will win 994 times, earning $0.01 each time (a total of $9.94), and lose 6 times, losing $0.99 each time (a total of $5.94). That is, a 4x increase of the deposit over 1,000 bets. And they make those 1,000 bets in 14 hours (75 bets per hour)!

Insane results!