Polymarket.com - Bets on any events (politics, sports, crypto markets, and more)

[Haunebu]

Just found out that both Polymarket and Kalshi attracted around 2 freaking billion dollars for the FIFA World Cup Champion market which is absolutely insane considering that they are zero KYC sites without any proper licensing whatsoever.

Spain is the hot favorite as expected followed by the rest. This just goes to show that either of these sites aren't going away anytime soon.

[Hispo]

Just found out that both Polymarket and Kalshi attracted around 2 freaking billion dollars for the FIFA World Cup Champion market which is absolutely insane considering that they are zero KYC sites without any proper licensing whatsoever.

Spain is the hot favorite as expected followed by the rest. This just goes to show that either of these sites aren't going away anytime soon.

Could you please share the source of that information? I would like to read about it myself.

And sure, that is quite a huge amount of money for platforms which do not ask for any KYC information, and actually I think that is one of the main reasons they have such high amount of volume, because they attract both legitimate users who do not like KYC and also they attract shady and criminal organizations which make use of non-KYC platforms to launder their money.

At this pace those platforms won't get closed down, but rather they are going to be pulled out their their legal grey area into full regulation by lawmakers, if they continue to increase their volume in their coming years.

Still, I personally prefer to bet on classical platforms like Stake, at least they have got clear rules when comes to regulations and comply with AML measures.

[Wind_FURY]

Just found out that both Polymarket and Kalshi attracted around 2 freaking billion dollars for the FIFA World Cup Champion market which is absolutely insane considering that they are zero KYC sites without any proper licensing whatsoever.

Spain is the hot favorite as expected followed by the rest. This just goes to show that either of these sites aren't going away anytime soon.

Could you please share the source of that information? I would like to read about it myself.

And sure, that is quite a huge amount of money for platforms which do not ask for any KYC information, and actually I think that is one of the main reasons they have such high amount of volume, because they attract both legitimate users who do not like KYC and also they attract shady and criminal organizations which make use of non-KYC platforms to launder their money.

At this pace those platforms won't get closed down, but rather they are going to be pulled out their their legal grey area into full regulation by lawmakers, if they continue to increase their volume in their coming years.

Still, I personally prefer to bet on classical platforms like Stake, at least they have got clear rules when comes to regulations and comply with AML measures.

It could probably because the World Cup is one of the most popular sporting events in the world? When that attracts gamblers towards prediction markets, then it also attracts arbitrageurs, which also attracts market makers.

Plus for people in crypto, it's perhaps how the structure is more like an exchange, and NOT sports-betting service.

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Zwei]

Just found out that both Polymarket and Kalshi attracted around 2 freaking billion dollars for the FIFA World Cup Champion market which is absolutely insane considering that they are zero KYC sites without any proper licensing whatsoever.

kalshi has mandatory KYC actually, so that only leaves polymarket being no KYC, but that also only applies to people outside the US as far as i know.

Spain is the hot favorite as expected followed by the rest. This just goes to show that either of these sites aren't going away anytime soon.

true, also if i'm betting large amounts on sports, i would rather do it on a prediction market than old school bookies. i mean, there is no risk of a prediction market voiding your wins because you "win too much", and the other shit they do.

[Hispo]

Just found out that both Polymarket and Kalshi attracted around 2 freaking billion dollars for the FIFA World Cup Champion market which is absolutely insane considering that they are zero KYC sites without any proper licensing whatsoever.

Spain is the hot favorite as expected followed by the rest. This just goes to show that either of these sites aren't going away anytime soon.

Could you please share the source of that information? I would like to read about it myself.

And sure, that is quite a huge amount of money for platforms which do not ask for any KYC information, and actually I think that is one of the main reasons they have such high amount of volume, because they attract both legitimate users who do not like KYC and also they attract shady and criminal organizations which make use of non-KYC platforms to launder their money.

At this pace those platforms won't get closed down, but rather they are going to be pulled out their their legal grey area into full regulation by lawmakers, if they continue to increase their volume in their coming years.

Still, I personally prefer to bet on classical platforms like Stake, at least they have got clear rules when comes to regulations and comply with AML measures.

It could probably because the World Cup is one of the most popular sporting events in the world? When that attracts gamblers towards prediction markets, then it also attracts arbitrageurs, which also attracts market makers.

Plus for people in crypto, it's perhaps how the structure is more like an exchange, and NOT sports-betting service.

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

It makes me wonder who much dirty money could be flowing onto polymarket in order to be launderer, taking advantage of all the volume and noise there is going to be because of the world cup.
You are right, it is a very popular event and if polymarket is getting that amount of money into their wallets, I can only assume regular and centralized casinos and bookies are getting even more money than that.

There have just been so many scandals related to polymarket lately, that I don't longer believe the bulk of people depositing there do so with good intentions (betting competitively and with no tricks).
I have even seen some developers who use bots in order to get consistent returns on nearly-closing markets...
It is a quite shady world and it is only to get darker during the world cup, specially with all the lack of regulations and accountability upon those who use privileged information to get away with a lot of money...

[Wind_FURY]

Just found out that both Polymarket and Kalshi attracted around 2 freaking billion dollars for the FIFA World Cup Champion market which is absolutely insane considering that they are zero KYC sites without any proper licensing whatsoever.

Spain is the hot favorite as expected followed by the rest. This just goes to show that either of these sites aren't going away anytime soon.

Could you please share the source of that information? I would like to read about it myself.

And sure, that is quite a huge amount of money for platforms which do not ask for any KYC information, and actually I think that is one of the main reasons they have such high amount of volume, because they attract both legitimate users who do not like KYC and also they attract shady and criminal organizations which make use of non-KYC platforms to launder their money.

At this pace those platforms won't get closed down, but rather they are going to be pulled out their their legal grey area into full regulation by lawmakers, if they continue to increase their volume in their coming years.

Still, I personally prefer to bet on classical platforms like Stake, at least they have got clear rules when comes to regulations and comply with AML measures.

It could probably because the World Cup is one of the most popular sporting events in the world? When that attracts gamblers towards prediction markets, then it also attracts arbitrageurs, which also attracts market makers.

Plus for people in crypto, it's perhaps how the structure is more like an exchange, and NOT sports-betting service.

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

It makes me wonder who much dirty money could be flowing onto polymarket in order to be launderer, taking advantage of all the volume and noise there is going to be because of the world cup.
You are right, it is a very popular event and if polymarket is getting that amount of money into their wallets, I can only assume regular and centralized casinos and bookies are getting even more money than that.

There have just been so many scandals related to polymarket lately, that I don't longer believe the bulk of people depositing there do so with good intentions (betting competitively and with no tricks).
I have even seen some developers who use bots in order to get consistent returns on nearly-closing markets...
It is a quite shady world and it is only to get darker during the world cup, specially with all the lack of regulations and accountability upon those who use privileged information to get away with a lot of money...

You'll also need to wonder how much dirty money is passing through actual Legal Casinos, both internet casinos and brick/mortar casinos.

 

The largest amount of dirty money has a higher probability of going through the casinos with the largest amount of liquidity.

[Fiatless]

Could you please share the source of that information? I would like to read about it myself.

And sure, that is quite a huge amount of money for platforms which do not ask for any KYC information, and actually I think that is one of the main reasons they have such high amount of volume, because they attract both legitimate users who do not like KYC and also they attract shady and criminal organizations which make use of non-KYC platforms to launder their money.

At this pace those platforms won't get closed down, but rather they are going to be pulled out their their legal grey area into full regulation by lawmakers, if they continue to increase their volume in their coming years.

Still, I personally prefer to bet on classical platforms like Stake, at least they have got clear rules when comes to regulations and comply with AML measures.

Polymarket and Kalshi See $2 Billion in FIFA World Cup Bets Before Kickoff
Polymarket, Kalshi near $2B in World Cup bets

There are already moves by some US legislatures to enact laws that would impose strict regulation on the prediction market industry. These platforms might end up asking for KYC in the near future.

[Haunebu]

kalshi has mandatory KYC actually, so that only leaves polymarket being no KYC, but that also only applies to people outside the US as far as i know.

My bad! I totally forgot that Kalshi requires KYC from their customers(Pretty aggressive too) while Polymarket doesn't for now at least in certain countries around the world as you mentioned. This just makes Poly more appealing overall basically.

If they could only reduce their ridiculous bugs on their platform which are a regular nuisance btw, they could end up becoming the premier sports betting plus prediction market platform IMO.

[iv4n]

Polymarket and Kalshi See $2 Billion in FIFA World Cup Bets Before Kickoff
Polymarket, Kalshi near $2B in World Cup bets

So near $2B in World Cup bets, but it's not gambling because it's happening on a prediction market? 

Like the headline:

Polymarket.com - Bets on any events (politics, sports, crypto markets, and more)

So I guess it's foolish to say people are gambling and placing bets... they are forecasting & trading. I must say that sounds more sophisticated/elegant...

[dwyane36]

My bad! I totally forgot that Kalshi requires KYC from their customers(Pretty aggressive too) while Polymarket doesn't for now at least in certain countries around the world as you mentioned. This just makes Poly more appealing overall basically.

If they could only reduce their ridiculous bugs on their platform which are a regular nuisance btw, they could end up becoming the premier sports betting plus prediction market platform IMO.

Since Polymarket operates on a hybrid model, they certainly won’t completely restrict the use of their platform. What I mean is that if regulators put pressure on them, they could implement KYC requirements and geolocation restrictions for users exclusively on their website(UI). However, no one will prohibit the ability to place bets via smart contracts.

[Sammysmart001]

Since Polymarket operates on a hybrid model, they certainly won’t completely restrict the use of their platform. What I mean is that if regulators put pressure on them, they could implement KYC requirements and geolocation restrictions for users exclusively on their website(UI). However, no one will prohibit the ability to place bets via smart contracts.

Right on point dwyane36, if the regulators push. Poly can just slap KYC plus geo block on the website UI and still having to leave the smart contracts open.

With this hybrid setup, Poly is very hard to kill, on chain betting will still be possible for everyone as far you know how to use it directly, even with KYC on frontend

[Zwei]

If they could only reduce their ridiculous bugs on their platform which are a regular nuisance btw, they could end up becoming the premier sports betting plus prediction market platform IMO.

the first part i do not disagree with, i do think betting on sports on a prediction market is much better than on a bookie.
but betting on other stupid stuff like politics, is x thing gonna happen before the end of the world, etc... is not it. it's a net negative to any society if you can bet on anything.

Like the headline:

Polymarket.com - Bets on any events (politics, sports, crypto markets, and more)

So I guess it's foolish to say people are gambling and placing bets... they are forecasting & trading. I must say that sounds more sophisticated/elegant...

sshhhhhhh, we are not supposed to talk about that, no one is gambling on polymarket, they are trading.

[dwyane36]

the first part i do not disagree with, i do think betting on sports on a prediction market is much better than on a bookie.
but betting on other stupid stuff like politics, is x thing gonna happen before the end of the world, etc... is not it. it's a net negative to any society if you can bet on anything.

In my opinion, placing sports bets on prediction markets can be better than on traditional gambling platforms simply because of the order book and the availability of an API, which allows you to react more quickly when there are changes in a sporting event and to automate the process of placing and closing bets.

[Hispo]

Polymarket and Kalshi See $2 Billion in FIFA World Cup Bets Before Kickoff
Polymarket, Kalshi near $2B in World Cup bets

So near $2B in World Cup bets, but it's not gambling because it's happening on a prediction market? 

Like the headline:

Polymarket.com - Bets on any events (politics, sports, crypto markets, and more)

So I guess it's foolish to say people are gambling and placing bets... they are forecasting & trading. I must say that sounds more sophisticated/elegant...

It is kind of silly how one cannot even call duck a duck nowadays, if it walks like a duck, sounds like a duck and looks like a like a duck then ... It is not a duck, it is something different.

It is impressions how companies carry out these legal manouvers in order to be accessible from important markets, like the United States and Canada.

It does not matter if the format is similar to what we should find on an exchange... What happens on Polymarket is not forecasting or trading, it is pure betting (and in some cases pur gambling).

But hey... Twisting words in order not to be banned from the USA is legal, I guess.

[Wind_FURY]

Polymarket and Kalshi See $2 Billion in FIFA World Cup Bets Before Kickoff
Polymarket, Kalshi near $2B in World Cup bets

So near $2B in World Cup bets, but it's not gambling because it's happening on a prediction market? 

Like the headline:

Polymarket.com - Bets on any events (politics, sports, crypto markets, and more)

So I guess it's foolish to say people are gambling and placing bets... they are forecasting & trading. I must say that sounds more sophisticated/elegant...

Haha. It actually DOES. But I would only believe that it actually is more sophisticated IF those prediction market services includes stop-loss features, and stop-limit purchasing options. If it's all market orders, then it's going more towards gambling on a sports-betting service.

Because if they want to call it "trading", then give them the tools/features required to "trade".

 

[Hispo]

Because if they want to call it "trading", then give them the tools/features required to "trade".

 

They purposely want to keep it as simple as possible, so people get more hooked up during their sessions.
It is similar to how slot machines work on casinos, they have got a very simple mechanism, so gamblers do not need to think at all becomes to what their next move is going to be.
If Polymarket started to add features which made their service to resemble an actual trading platform, then people would get overwhelmed with all those tools and they would not experience as much dopamine rush as previously, they will start to seek for simpler experiences elsewhere.

Since legislation and laws in the majority of countries keep Polymarket on a grey area in which they do not need to comply with all those features in order to be considered a trading platform, they are quite comfortable with their current business model. It keeps giving them profits.

If it is not broken, there is no need to try to fix it.

[Wind_FURY]

Because if they want to call it "trading", then give them the tools/features required to "trade".

 

They purposely want to keep it as simple as possible, so people get more hooked up during their sessions.
It is similar to how slot machines work on casinos, they have got a very simple mechanism, so gamblers do not need to think at all becomes to what their next move is going to be.

If Polymarket started to add features which made their service to resemble an actual trading platform, then people would get overwhelmed with all those tools and they would not experience as much dopamine rush as previously, they will start to seek for simpler experiences elsewhere.

Since legislation and laws in the majority of countries keep Polymarket on a grey area in which they do not need to comply with all those features in order to be considered a trading platform, they are quite comfortable with their current business model. It keeps giving them profits.

If it is not broken, there is no need to try to fix it.

They're "trading" by merely using market orders - WHICH will definitely make them lose money per bet made because of bad slippage. You get in with a worse price than expected.

Although, Polymarket does have limit orders. But to give their users more sophistication, they need to have stop-limit and stop-market orders.

[Hispo]

Because if they want to call it "trading", then give them the tools/features required to "trade".

 

They purposely want to keep it as simple as possible, so people get more hooked up during their sessions.
It is similar to how slot machines work on casinos, they have got a very simple mechanism, so gamblers do not need to think at all becomes to what their next move is going to be.

If Polymarket started to add features which made their service to resemble an actual trading platform, then people would get overwhelmed with all those tools and they would not experience as much dopamine rush as previously, they will start to seek for simpler experiences elsewhere.

Since legislation and laws in the majority of countries keep Polymarket on a grey area in which they do not need to comply with all those features in order to be considered a trading platform, they are quite comfortable with their current business model. It keeps giving them profits.

If it is not broken, there is no need to try to fix it.

They're "trading" by merely using market orders - WHICH will definitely make them lose money per bet made because of bad slippage. You get in with a worse price than expected.

Although, Polymarket does have limit orders. But to give their users more sophistication, they need to have stop-limit and stop-market orders.

Even in exchanges like Coinbase and Binance traders can enjoy a feature which helps them to avoid slippage, with the relatively low volume of Polymarket when compared to Binance and Coinbase those options are supposed to be more important, as there is less liquidity from absorb orders which could be specially big.

I personally do not buy the story of all this new platforms actually offering "trading" markets to their clients. If this was trading, then there would be more features, which allowed people to view deeps of liquity, green and red walls within the market and also lines of tendency.

With all the lawsuits Which are being accumulated against Kalshi, I would not be surprised several jurisdictions in the United States started to also prosecute Polymarket when the administration of Donald Trump is over in 2028.

[NotATether]

They purposely want to keep it as simple as possible, so people get more hooked up during their sessions.
It is similar to how slot machines work on casinos, they have got a very simple mechanism, so gamblers do not need to think at all becomes to what their next move is going to be.

If Polymarket started to add features which made their service to resemble an actual trading platform, then people would get overwhelmed with all those tools and they would not experience as much dopamine rush as previously, they will start to seek for simpler experiences elsewhere.

Since legislation and laws in the majority of countries keep Polymarket on a grey area in which they do not need to comply with all those features in order to be considered a trading platform, they are quite comfortable with their current business model. It keeps giving them profits.

If it is not broken, there is no need to try to fix it.

You are right here. The underlying CLOB framework *does* allow you to make a sort of trading bot from it, which is what I have attempted to do in the last several weeks, but the main website seems to be designed to get you to gamble. I mean, look at the World Cup markets. They are actively encouraging people to place single bets on team games.  That's not strategy - that's taking risk with no upside.

[Wind_FURY]

Because if they want to call it "trading", then give them the tools/features required to "trade".

 

They purposely want to keep it as simple as possible, so people get more hooked up during their sessions.
It is similar to how slot machines work on casinos, they have got a very simple mechanism, so gamblers do not need to think at all becomes to what their next move is going to be.

If Polymarket started to add features which made their service to resemble an actual trading platform, then people would get overwhelmed with all those tools and they would not experience as much dopamine rush as previously, they will start to seek for simpler experiences elsewhere.

Since legislation and laws in the majority of countries keep Polymarket on a grey area in which they do not need to comply with all those features in order to be considered a trading platform, they are quite comfortable with their current business model. It keeps giving them profits.

If it is not broken, there is no need to try to fix it.

They're "trading" by merely using market orders - WHICH will definitely make them lose money per bet made because of bad slippage. You get in with a worse price than expected.

Although, Polymarket does have limit orders. But to give their users more sophistication, they need to have stop-limit and stop-market orders.

Even in exchanges like Coinbase and Binance traders can enjoy a feature which helps them to avoid slippage, with the relatively low volume of Polymarket when compared to Binance and Coinbase those options are supposed to be more important, as there is less liquidity from absorb orders which could be specially big.

I personally do not buy the story of all this new platforms actually offering "trading" markets to their clients. If this was trading, then there would be more features, which allowed people to view deeps of liquity, green and red walls within the market and also lines of tendency.

With all the lawsuits Which are being accumulated against Kalshi, I would not be surprised several jurisdictions in the United States started to also prosecute Polymarket when the administration of Donald Trump is over in 2028.

That's probably true. But I believe that Polymarket and Kalshi should start saving some cash on hand to fight those lawsuits to try to win where they could win, and propose some settlements in lawsuits where they could lose.

They probably should start donating to those politicians who support crypto, not merely as an industry but as a social and technological  movement as well.