Polymarket.com - Bets on any events (politics, sports, crypto markets, and more)

[ultrloa]

With common network, I assume you are talking about the use of USDC within the matic Blockchain, by Polymarket.
In some sense, yes, you are mostly right: we won't see a drastic surge of users because of the use of Bitcoin lightning in order to deposit and participate on Polymarket, but I still believe there will be users who will join in because of this new feature.
We should never underestimate the size of the Bitcoin ecosystem and the market capitalization behind it.

I think that LN usage is close to an all-time low for some reason. I have no idea why. Nobody is even performing the LN node running steps I have on a thread to get free merits these days. Maybe it will get better when the bear goes back to hibernation in a few years.

What are the criteria you use to determine that LN usage is low? Although the number of channels has decreased in recent years, judging by the statistics, the capacity and the total number of nodes have increased.
As for using LN as a deposit method on Polymarket, having a variety of deposit methods is always a good thing, even if not many people are particularly interested in using LN specifically.

I think the channel count is not main factor to check the usage of Lightning network. Since if I'm not wrong what matter is the actual payment volume happening on polymarket, then also those real transaction and how people often use that network.

The count of nodes and the capacity can even rise even if we see the activity is flat and this situation don't prove anything. But still LN network on that site still good and it gives flexibility for their users. But that low deposits by using LN somehow shows that many people don't prefer to use that and choose the other option which they think more convenient. But they newly add LN network on their site, maybe in future we could see some increase when lots of people discover or want to try to deposit other coins aside from USDC.

[dwyane36]

But still LN network on that site still good and it gives flexibility for their users. But that low deposits by using LN somehow shows that many people don't prefer to use that and choose the other option which they think more convenient. But they newly add LN network on their site, maybe in future we could see some increase when lots of people discover or want to try to deposit other coins aside from USDC.

When you click the "Deposit" button on the Polymarket website, the first thing that catches your eye is the "Free USDC Deposits" offer. Although the LN deposit option is also listed in this pop-up window, I suspect that most users take the path of least resistance. In other words, it’s probably easier for many Polymarket users to deposit USDC from their phone or even use fiat instead of crypto.

[Wind_FURY]

But still LN network on that site still good and it gives flexibility for their users. But that low deposits by using LN somehow shows that many people don't prefer to use that and choose the other option which they think more convenient. But they newly add LN network on their site, maybe in future we could see some increase when lots of people discover or want to try to deposit other coins aside from USDC.

When you click the "Deposit" button on the Polymarket website, the first thing that catches your eye is the "Free USDC Deposits" offer. Although the LN deposit option is also listed in this pop-up window, I suspect that most users take the path of least resistance. In other words, it’s probably easier for many Polymarket users to deposit USDC from their phone or even use fiat instead of crypto.

Plus the service converting the user's Bitcoin to a stablecoin, we can definitely be confident that Bitcoiners will not make such a deposit to have their precious Bitcoin converted and miss the possible rise in price.

If a service wants to unlock the trillions of value "locked" within the Bitcoin network, then they should allow the user's Bitcoin to be held/denominated in Bitcoin.

[EarnOnVictor]

-Snip-
What do you think? Does that dude from X have a chance of getting that $500k?

I would have just hissed and passed about this court filing, but I tell you, this guy has a case, a strong one for that matter. Polymarket acted irresponsibly and manipulatively. I only hope the law and its interpretation in that jurisdiction favour the plaintiff. It annoys me when establishments behave in such a rogue manner.

This guy won the prediction based on the prevailing terms and conditions within the time, but Polymarket later altered the condition to include "after public confirmation," after the event had happened. That's ridiculous! I know they would hide under the ToS the guy agreed upon, as final, but court is not a fool too.

[dwyane36]

I would have just hissed and passed about this court filing, but I tell you, this guy has a case, a strong one for that matter. Polymarket acted irresponsibly and manipulatively. I only hope the law and its interpretation in that jurisdiction favour the plaintiff. It annoys me when establishments behave in such a rogue manner.

This guy won the prediction based on the prevailing terms and conditions within the time, but Polymarket later altered the condition to include "after public confirmation," after the event had happened. That's ridiculous! I know they would hide under the ToS the guy agreed upon, as final, but court is not a fool too.

Seeing how many users stumble and lose money on prediction markets where the rules are ambiguous from the start, I think it’s best to avoid such prediction markets altogether. What I mean is that if you’re interested in a particular prediction market on the Polymarket website, it makes sense to carefully review the YES/NO rules first, and if you have even the slightest doubt that the result could be interpreted differently, it’s better not to participate.

[julerz12]

Did someone from the future come back in 2021 and posted a juicy statement on X that Argentina will win the 2026 World Cup Finals?  
Or maybe he has precognition?
Here's that post: https://x.com/actuallyimthe/status/1414366007888650241


Polymarket themselves also posted about this: https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2077514844694049233

Would you bet on this crazy prediction?

Also, if you had this "ability" to see into future events and whatnot, would you use it to absolutely dominate the prediction market? I know I would. LOL

[Hispo]

Did someone from the future come back in 2021 and posted a juicy statement on X that Argentina will win the 2026 World Cup Finals?  
Or maybe he has precognition?
Here's that post: https://x.com/actuallyimthe/status/1414366007888650241


Polymarket themselves also posted about this: https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2077514844694049233

Would you bet on this crazy prediction?

Also, if you had this "ability" to see into future events and whatnot, would you use it to absolutely dominate the prediction market? I know I would. LOL

Well, that is interesting...
I am not sure how he did it... There must be some trick.
Perhaps this just happens to be one of several accounts the same person created in order to post several predictions at the same time, several years ago. As the world cup progressed, he started to delete or close those accounts, leaving only a single prediction untouched, which would be the one we are seeing right now.


People on the internet are specially clever to do stuff like that and pass some tricks as very accurate predictions on football and other important events.
It reminds me of a channel on YouTube which actually seemed to predict the date of death of several famous people in the United States.

[Wind_FURY]

Did someone from the future come back in 2021 and posted a juicy statement on X that Argentina will win the 2026 World Cup Finals?  
Or maybe he has precognition?
Here's that post: https://x.com/actuallyimthe/status/1414366007888650241


Polymarket themselves also posted about this: https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2077514844694049233

Would you bet on this crazy prediction?

Also, if you had this "ability" to see into future events and whatnot, would you use it to absolutely dominate the prediction market? I know I would. LOL

Someone in X made the bet with $4,643.17 to win $208,942.68 8n Shuffle.

 

That post will probably the most reposted post during Sunday/Monday if the prediction is actually right.

Alright, let's get it! 🫡🇦🇷🙏



https://x.com/littlekid/status/2077815842008347097

[mikel_012]

Well, that is interesting...
I am not sure how he did it... There must be some trick.
Perhaps this just happens to be one of several accounts the same person created in order to post several predictions at the same time, several years ago. As the world cup progressed, he started to delete or close those accounts, leaving only a single prediction untouched, which would be the one we are seeing right now.


People on the internet are specially clever to do stuff like that and pass some tricks as very accurate predictions on football and other important events.
It reminds me of a channel on YouTube which actually seemed to predict the date of death of several famous people in the United States.

What trick?? The game did not happen yet how can we say he did something magical or a right prediction from the future??

I think anyone in the internet can say two teams will play in the final and the score, but we can not pretend he is right until the game happens

I think what we will see is that Spain will win and everyone will forget about this tweet

[Haunebu]

Would you bet on this crazy prediction?

Also, if you had this "ability" to see into future events and whatnot, would you use it to absolutely dominate the prediction market? I know I would. LOL

How old are you people? There's someone making some sort of prediction literally every second around the world when it comes to big sports markets which is why this is all just silly. It's just a random prediction from some random dude at the end of the day.

Only naive fools would gamble with their money to bet like this without doing proper research. Spain has literally conceded 1 goal so far and they will concede 3 in the final? Possible, but highly unlikely. Am expecting 0-1 in Spain's favor instead as the final result after extra time.

[Warkop]

Would you bet on this crazy prediction?

Also, if you had this "ability" to see into future events and whatnot, would you use it to absolutely dominate the prediction market? I know I would. LOL

How old are you people? There's someone making some sort of prediction literally every second around the world when it comes to big sports markets which is why this is all just silly. It's just a random prediction from some random dude at the end of the day.

Only naive fools would gamble with their money to bet like this without doing proper research. Spain has literally conceded 1 goal so far and they will concede 3 in the final? Possible, but highly unlikely. Am expecting 0-1 in Spain's favor instead as the final result after extra time.

This is rational thinking when making predictions, not haphazardly, but with careful consideration. From both countries alone, we can see how tight this match is. As long as there's no element of tampering, simply for the sake of a desired victory by someone behind the scenes, it will certainly damage the betting market for some fans.

If your prediction of a (0-1) victory over Spain is correct, it's a rational and reasonable prediction, not overly exaggerated. If someone makes a prediction without any basis or consideration of the two countries' statistics, it's certainly a damaging and arbitrary prediction, potentially misleading.

[Coyster]

Would you bet on this crazy prediction?

No i wouldn't bet on this. I never take predictions like this seriously, it is just a random person making a random prediction. We all know nobody can see the future, neither can a game at this level be fixed.

I do not even think a total of 5 goals would be scored in this final, but i could end up being wrong though. In 2022, a total of 6 goals was scored between France and Argentina, but i think this one would be a close encounter with fewer goals.

[Hispo]

Well, that is interesting...
I am not sure how he did it... There must be some trick.
Perhaps this just happens to be one of several accounts the same person created in order to post several predictions at the same time, several years ago. As the world cup progressed, he started to delete or close those accounts, leaving only a single prediction untouched, which would be the one we are seeing right now.


People on the internet are specially clever to do stuff like that and pass some tricks as very accurate predictions on football and other important events.
It reminds me of a channel on YouTube which actually seemed to predict the date of death of several famous people in the United States.

What trick?? The game did not happen yet how can we say he did something magical or a right prediction from the future??

I think anyone in the internet can say two teams will play in the final and the score, but we can not pretend he is right until the game happens

I think what we will see is that Spain will win and everyone will forget about this tweet

What I was trying to say was the fact we cannot assume whoever made that tweet had some privileged information or was some kind of time traveller who already knew the final score of the match.
Someone could just have opened several accounts in the past and posted several results and teams for the final match of this world cup since the year 2021 and them they would just proceed to close their account as the world cup progressed.

We are not supposed to be so gullible and have so much magical thinking and give so much power to a post from 5 years ago. It means practically nothing to us in the present.

[mikel_012]

What I was trying to say was the fact we cannot assume whoever made that tweet had some privileged information or was some kind of time traveller who already knew the final score of the match.
Someone could just have opened several accounts in the past and posted several results and teams for the final match of this world cup since the year 2021 and them they would just proceed to close their account as the world cup progressed.

We are not supposed to be so gullible and have so much magical thinking and give so much power to a post from 5 years ago. It means practically nothing to us in the present.

I understand, but at the same time he does not need to do any trick because it is not rare to find a random tweet selecting two strong teams that we knew could be in the finals like Argentina and Spain

Many people post things like this all the time. I am certain there are many people posting now about England vs Spain or Brazil vs France in 2030 with a random goal score because they can pretend to be from the future or a magical guy if in 2030 we see England vs Spain or France vs Brazil in the finals in 4 years

[Hispo]

What I was trying to say was the fact we cannot assume whoever made that tweet had some privileged information or was some kind of time traveller who already knew the final score of the match.
Someone could just have opened several accounts in the past and posted several results and teams for the final match of this world cup since the year 2021 and them they would just proceed to close their account as the world cup progressed.

We are not supposed to be so gullible and have so much magical thinking and give so much power to a post from 5 years ago. It means practically nothing to us in the present.

I understand, but at the same time he does not need to do any trick because it is not rare to find a random tweet selecting two strong teams that we knew could be in the finals like Argentina and Spain

Many people post things like this all the time. I am certain there are many people posting now about England vs Spain or Brazil vs France in 2030 with a random goal score because they can pretend to be from the future or a magical guy if in 2030 we see England vs Spain or France vs Brazil in the finals in 4 years

Indeed, now that we have seen so many people interested in these kind of predictions, this year we will have thousands of people on Twitter to try to guess the final match for the 2030 world cup. It is just a matter of statistics, someone will eventually guess  correctly which the champion would be in 2030. Interestingly enough, those who got it wrong are ignored while the single person who got it right gets all the attention on social media and also get to press and people on YouTube to talk about someone is alledgelly a time traveler, as some people are suggesting today. It is rather silly, to say the least.

[Haunebu]

Holy moly! Feels great predicting the correct score of a freaking WC final including extra time perfectly. Always knew La Roja would dominate, but zero shots on goal by Argentina was just embarrassing to watch. That red card was a game changing moment.

Spain has literally conceded 1 goal so far and they will concede 3 in the final? Possible, but highly unlikely. Am expecting 0-1 in Spain's favor instead as the final result after extra time.

FIFA tried so hard to indirectly support Argentina and failed in a pathetic manner. Trump trying to hog the limelight at the end was expected because he is one heck of a predictable clown. 2 times WC champs and their women's side won recently...Epic Spain!

[michellee]

Holy moly! Feels great predicting the correct score of a freaking WC final including extra time perfectly. Always knew La Roja would dominate, but zero shots on goal by Argentina was just embarrassing to watch. That red card was a game changing moment.

Both team work hard to score but Argentina can't do that and must give up in extra time. That is not bad because they are in second position which still a good results. They have more time to win so they must train harder and have better preparations.

La Roja deserve to win after the duel but no need to feels more superior than others. It is a gift to La Roja after waiting for 6 years to win World Cup.

[Wind_FURY]

Would you bet on this crazy prediction?

Also, if you had this "ability" to see into future events and whatnot, would you use it to absolutely dominate the prediction market? I know I would. LOL

How old are you people? There's someone making some sort of prediction literally every second around the world when it comes to big sports markets which is why this is all just silly. It's just a random prediction from some random dude at the end of the day.

Only naive fools would gamble with their money to bet like this without doing proper research. Spain has literally conceded 1 goal so far and they will concede 3 in the final? Possible, but highly unlikely. Am expecting 0-1 in Spain's favor instead as the final result after extra time.

SER, 👀

Did you bet that before the final started? I believe that would actually win more money than the Spain 3, Argentina 2 prediction, no?

Why didn't I read the posts after my last post in this topic?

[o48o]

Polymarket has now been sued by the guy who lost $500k to that May 31st market prediction of Microstrategy's BTC sell-off
The full copy of the lawsuit has been posted on X here: https://x.com/BurwickLaw/status/2074200534102237288 ^source
The lawsuit was filed in the Supreme Court of the State of New York just a few days ago, on July 03, 2026.

This platform also has a lawsuit filed by the National Association of Consumer Advocates, and this was in June, 2026. 
Details about it can be found here: https://cryptobriefing.com/polymarket-sued-targeting-college-students/

What do you think? Does that dude from X have a chance of getting that $500k?

Obviously he has a strong case at least. And i would be surprised if polymarket wouldn't need to pay that with interest, as you can't just retroactively change the rules about confirmation timing.

If this keeps happening, trust on Polymarket will diminish and i could bet on that in polymarkets if there was a way to confirm or measure cause-and-effect relationship.

[Franklyn-wood]

Holy moly! Feels great predicting the correct score of a freaking WC final including extra time perfectly. Always knew La Roja would dominate, but zero shots on goal by Argentina was just embarrassing to watch. That red card was a game changing moment.

Spain has literally conceded 1 goal so far and they will concede 3 in the final? Possible, but highly unlikely. Am expecting 0-1 in Spain's favor instead as the final result after extra time.

FIFA tried so hard to indirectly support Argentina and failed in a pathetic manner. Trump trying to hog the limelight at the end was expected because he is one heck of a predictable clown. 2 times WC champs and their women's side won recently...Epic Spain!

Well it obviously clear that politics is now part of the sports with what happened when Trump has to other that a game should be staged in favour of a teams because he his an influencial person, this means anything can happen and a game can be fixed in favour of whoever have the money or influence to get it done that way with benefits.
Spain tried to prove that believe wrong and they played like there won't be another wold cup again and I am happy they came through it.