Polymarket.com - Bets on any events (politics, sports, crypto markets, and more)

[savetheFORUM]

Yeah, that "prediction" did not happen, and people need to learn that tweets can be edited as well, even old ones. You just got a free lesson in the fact that people lie, and trusting some stranger online with a betting would be a bad mistake, and some people did make that bad mistake.

Spain's defense would not be that bad, and it wasn't, that alone was good enough to know that this would not happen. I had a simple bet, Spain to win, that's it, and I made some return, not huge, and I do not know why people need magical stuff to bet, a simple bet like that, done multiple times a week, is not a bad return over long term.

[Hispo]

Is anyone here getting ready to bet on the mid-term elections of the United States, which are set to be held next November?

I have seen much speculation from both the right and the left on what could happen to the political balance in Washington and whether there is a chance for the Democrats to pull off a political come back in November.

If someone manages to guess things right, it could be capitalized and then into a good money thanks to Polymarkets, fortunately enough these are marked which have a very good liquidity.

[Mandoy]

Holy moly! Feels great predicting the correct score of a freaking WC final including extra time perfectly. Always knew La Roja would dominate, but zero shots on goal by Argentina was just embarrassing to watch. That red card was a game changing moment.

Spain has literally conceded 1 goal so far and they will concede 3 in the final? Possible, but highly unlikely. Am expecting 0-1 in Spain's favor instead as the final result after extra time.

FIFA tried so hard to indirectly support Argentina and failed in a pathetic manner. Trump trying to hog the limelight at the end was expected because he is one heck of a predictable clown. 2 times WC champs and their women's side won recently...Epic Spain!

Well it obviously clear that politics is now part of the sports with what happened when Trump has to other that a game should be staged in favour of a teams because he his an influencial person, this means anything can happen and a game can be fixed in favour of whoever have the money or influence to get it done that way with benefits.
Spain tried to prove that believe wrong and they played like there won't be another wold cup again and I am happy they came through it.

They were the better team all tournament and Spain richly deserved the title. They were tough to beat, they played possession and they took opportunities when they were needed. The red card had a huge impact on the game in the final, but that's the nature of football, and Argentina were responsible for losing their discipline. When it comes to claims that politics or influential people can influence match outcomes, I don't think so, and it's hard to argue with it as there is no evidence. Celebrity guests appearing at finals is commonplace, but doesn't determine the outcome. It's best to be pleased with the result on the field and Spain certainly deserved to win.

[dwyane36]

Is anyone here getting ready to bet on the mid-term elections of the United States, which are set to be held next November?

I have seen much speculation from both the right and the left on what could happen to the political balance in Washington and whether there is a chance for the Democrats to pull off a political come back in November.

If someone manages to guess things right, it could be capitalized and then into a good money thanks to Polymarkets, fortunately enough these are marked which have a very good liquidity.

I may be wrong, but I think voters in the U.S. already regret electing Trump and are probably fed up with Republicans in general. If that’s the case, the Democrats will most likely come out on top in the elections this fall. Although looking at the current odds on Polymarket, the situation regarding the U.S. election isn’t quite so clear-cut just yet.

[PERtua]

Is anyone here getting ready to bet on the mid-term elections of the United States, which are set to be held next November?

I have seen much speculation from both the right and the left on what could happen to the political balance in Washington and whether there is a chance for the Democrats to pull off a political come back in November.

If someone manages to guess things right, it could be capitalized and then into a good money thanks to Polymarkets, fortunately enough these are marked which have a very good liquidity.

I may be wrong, but I think voters in the U.S. already regret electing Trump and are probably fed up with Republicans in general. If that’s the case, the Democrats will most likely come out on top in the elections this fall. Although looking at the current odds on Polymarket, the situation regarding the U.S. election isn’t quite so clear-cut just yet.

Trying to foretell election results months ahead is never certain, since the general public's opinion can change rapidly in the wake of intense events, economic statistics or political commentaries. Polymarket is currently reflecting the market's expectations, but it is the traders that drive those odds, not the market. It's easy for a popular favorite to lose steam before Election Day. Anyone who intends to bet on the midterm elections should approach the market's probabilities rather thanabsolute facts. After a successful polling, a good development from the campaigns and trends in voter turnout will give a better advantage than simply assuming what people prefer or want to believe is true based on personal opinion.

[maydna]

Yeah, that "prediction" did not happen, and people need to learn that tweets can be edited as well, even old ones. You just got a free lesson in the fact that people lie, and trusting some stranger online with a betting would be a bad mistake, and some people did make that bad mistake.

Spain's defense would not be that bad, and it wasn't, that alone was good enough to know that this would not happen. I had a simple bet, Spain to win, that's it, and I made some return, not huge, and I do not know why people need magical stuff to bet, a simple bet like that, done multiple times a week, is not a bad return over long term.

But the thing is many people rely on stranger online with a betting and don't care if that is wrong. They just research but they rely on that person to makes their bet. We don't know how many makes the same mistake but only hopes they realize the mistake and not doing the same.

The defense from both teams are good but Spain have their lucky and finally win against Argentina. Argentina can revenge on the next World Cup and hope they will meet and repeat the history but that time will not be the same as Argentina will do their best to beat Spain.

[Haunebu]

I have seen much speculation from both the right and the left on what could happen to the political balance in Washington and whether there is a chance for the Democrats to pull off a political come back in November.

Isn't it obvious already? Trump sealed his and his party's fate by going to eat against Iran and screwing USA's reputation globally thanks to which it is pretty much a guarantee now that democrats will pull off a comeback. What's more interesting is his impeachment.

Chances are still low, but they are climbing with every braindead mistake of his. If the democrats reclaim control of the house(Most probably), those chances will continue climbing while the republicans should regain control of the senate.

[NotATether]

Someone in X made the bet with $4,643.17 to win $208,942.68 8n Shuffle.

  

That post will probably the most reposted post during Sunday/Monday if the prediction is actually right.

Alright, let's get it! 🫡🇦🇷🙏



https://x.com/littlekid/status/2077815842008347097

So... what happened to this guy?

Anyone followed up on him?

[Hispo]

I have seen much speculation from both the right and the left on what could happen to the political balance in Washington and whether there is a chance for the Democrats to pull off a political come back in November.

Isn't it obvious already? Trump sealed his and his party's fate by going to eat against Iran and screwing USA's reputation globally thanks to which it is pretty much a guarantee now that democrats will pull off a comeback. What's more interesting is his impeachment.

Chances are still low, but they are climbing with every braindead mistake of his. If the democrats reclaim control of the house(Most probably), those chances will continue climbing while the republicans should regain control of the senate.

Do you think they are going to try to impeach him again?
Right... They can try to do it out of a sense of morality or because the base of the democrat party may push in favor of an impeachment so their representatives will be "forced" to try.
But I still that after so many wacky stuff Trump have made and the global mess he continues to make with Europe and the Middle East, the republican House members and Senate members are just very politically weak to stand up against Trump and support an impeachment.

Still, I would expect Polymarket to open options for people to bet on the chances of Trump getting successfully impeached.

[dwyane36]

Still, I would expect Polymarket to open options for people to bet on the chances of Trump getting successfully impeached.

There have long been some prediction markets on Polymarket regarding Trump’s impeachment. For example, in one prediction market, the odds of Trump being impeached this year are estimated at just 2%, while in another, the odds of him being impeached before the end of his term are estimated at as high as 67%.

[Mandoy]

I have seen much speculation from both the right and the left on what could happen to the political balance in Washington and whether there is a chance for the Democrats to pull off a political come back in November.

Isn't it obvious already? Trump sealed his and his party's fate by going to eat against Iran and screwing USA's reputation globally thanks to which it is pretty much a guarantee now that democrats will pull off a comeback. What's more interesting is his impeachment.

Chances are still low, but they are climbing with every braindead mistake of his. If the democrats reclaim control of the house(Most probably), those chances will continue climbing while the republicans should regain control of the senate.

Do you think they are going to try to impeach him again?
Right... They can try to do it out of a sense of morality or because the base of the democrat party may push in favor of an impeachment so their representatives will be "forced" to try.
But I still that after so many wacky stuff Trump have made and the global mess he continues to make with Europe and the Middle East, the republican House members and Senate members are just very politically weak to stand up against Trump and support an impeachment.

Still, I would expect Polymarket to open options for people to bet on the chances of Trump getting successfully impeached.

I believe it's premature to say that impeachment is a realistic possibility. While there can be very polarized political discussions on the internet. Impeachment is a legal and political process. And winning depends on more than just public frustration or debatable decisions. That is actually what makes prediction markets fascinating, such as Polymarket they offer insights into market sentiment, not market confidence. I would see it as an indicator of how much people think of the chances according to new developments, if a market to impeach gets going. Those odds are as always subject to political change as well.

[Hispo]

I have seen much speculation from both the right and the left on what could happen to the political balance in Washington and whether there is a chance for the Democrats to pull off a political come back in November.

Isn't it obvious already? Trump sealed his and his party's fate by going to eat against Iran and screwing USA's reputation globally thanks to which it is pretty much a guarantee now that democrats will pull off a comeback. What's more interesting is his impeachment.

Chances are still low, but they are climbing with every braindead mistake of his. If the democrats reclaim control of the house(Most probably), those chances will continue climbing while the republicans should regain control of the senate.

Do you think they are going to try to impeach him again?
Right... They can try to do it out of a sense of morality or because the base of the democrat party may push in favor of an impeachment so their representatives will be "forced" to try.
But I still that after so many wacky stuff Trump have made and the global mess he continues to make with Europe and the Middle East, the republican House members and Senate members are just very politically weak to stand up against Trump and support an impeachment.

Still, I would expect Polymarket to open options for people to bet on the chances of Trump getting successfully impeached.

I believe it's premature to say that impeachment is a realistic possibility. While there can be very polarized political discussions on the internet. Impeachment is a legal and political process. And winning depends on more than just public frustration or debatable decisions. That is actually what makes prediction markets fascinating, such as Polymarket they offer insights into market sentiment, not market confidence. I would see it as an indicator of how much people think of the chances according to new developments, if a market to impeach gets going. Those odds are as always subject to political change as well.

I like to think of Polymarket and other markets which allow to bet in politics to serve as a public thermometer or sensor of a political situation from the point of view of the average person, who does not have any privileged information on what it could be going on in Washington. That does not necessarily mean the public will be always right, but there are instances in which the reality on what could be going on behind the curtains and the sentiment of the public actually match.
It could be the case of those betting on the impeachment of Trump.

Still, I would expect Polymarket to open options for people to bet on the chances of Trump getting successfully impeached.

There have long been some prediction markets on Polymarket regarding Trump’s impeachment. For example, in one prediction market, the odds of Trump being impeached this year are estimated at just 2%, while in another, the odds of him being impeached before the end of his term are estimated at as high as 67%.

I did not know there was. I will check it out when I have some spare time them, I missed it which browsing on Polymarket...

[acroman08]

Just a bit of news about sports prediction in prediction markets(I don't want to create another thread).

It looks like Prediction markets are facing more pushback from US states, New York and Washington blocked their appeal against the state's gambling crackdown on their platform. There is also a bipartisan federal bill to ban sports prediction that was just introduced by a Nevada Congressman(Rep. Steven Horsford and Mark Amodei). If this bill is passed, from what I understand, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket will be forced to remove sports prediction from their platform in the US.

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/industry/bipartisan-federal-bill-introduced-to-ban-sports-prediction-markets/
https://nypost.com/2026/07/21/business/kalshi-blocked-from-offering-contracts-in-washington-state-as-judge-cites-gambling-laws/
https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/judge-rejects-kalshi-bid-block-new-york-gambling-enforcement-law-2026-07-08/

[Hispo]

Just a bit of news about sports prediction in prediction markets(I don't want to create another thread).

It looks like Prediction markets are facing more pushback from US states, New York and Washington blocked their appeal against the state's gambling crackdown on their platform. There is also a bipartisan federal bill to ban sports prediction that was just introduced by a Nevada Congressman(Rep. Steven Horsford and Mark Amodei). If this bill is passed, from what I understand, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket will be forced to remove sports prediction from their platform in the US.

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/industry/bipartisan-federal-bill-introduced-to-ban-sports-prediction-markets/
https://nypost.com/2026/07/21/business/kalshi-blocked-from-offering-contracts-in-washington-state-as-judge-cites-gambling-laws/
https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/judge-rejects-kalshi-bid-block-new-york-gambling-enforcement-law-2026-07-08/

Correct me if I am wrong. But assuming this bill is pushed forward by lawmakers and signed into law. Would not that mean Kalshi and Polymarket would be forced to move their headquarters out of the United States and provide their services to only people living outside of the United States?

I would not even sure how Polymarket could enforce or exclude people from participating on their markets, considering bettors do not need to go through any KYC process in order to participate. Someone with a basic VPN could bypass the blockage they could impose on Polymarket and Kalshi.

Anyways... I have got the impression there could be hidden interest behind a ban like this one, specially from regulated bookies in the USA which see Polymarket and Kalshi as competition...

[acroman08]

Correct me if I am wrong. But assuming this bill is pushed forward by lawmakers and signed into law. Would not that mean Kalshi and Polymarket would be forced to move their headquarters out of the United States and provide their services to only people living outside of the United States?

I would not even sure how Polymarket could enforce or exclude people from participating on their markets, considering bettors do not need to go through any KYC process in order to participate. Someone with a basic VPN could bypass the blockage they could impose on Polymarket and Kalshi.

No, the bill is only for their Sports predictions, not the entire prediction market, meaning, if the bill is passed, they would be forced to block or remove their sports predictions page for US residents who use their platform.

Anyways... I have got the impression there could be hidden interest behind a ban like this one, specially from regulated bookies in the USA which see Polymarket and Kalshi as competition...

Yeah, maybe, and it wouldn't be surprising if it is true, especially when I just saw an article a few days back that prediction markets and their competitors(casinos/bookies) are spending more money to influence the US Congress. So, this push from two congressmen might have something to do with the lobbying that casinos and bookies have been pushing.

Here's the article in question.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/21/prediction-market-kalshi-polymarket-casino-gaming-lobby-congress.html

[Hispo]

Correct me if I am wrong. But assuming this bill is pushed forward by lawmakers and signed into law. Would not that mean Kalshi and Polymarket would be forced to move their headquarters out of the United States and provide their services to only people living outside of the United States?

I would not even sure how Polymarket could enforce or exclude people from participating on their markets, considering bettors do not need to go through any KYC process in order to participate. Someone with a basic VPN could bypass the blockage they could impose on Polymarket and Kalshi.

No, the bill is only for their Sports predictions, not the entire prediction market, meaning, if the bill is passed, they would be forced to block or remove their sports predictions page for US residents who use their platform.

Anyways... I have got the impression there could be hidden interest behind a ban like this one, specially from regulated bookies in the USA which see Polymarket and Kalshi as competition...

Yeah, maybe, and it wouldn't be surprising if it is true, especially when I just saw an article a few days back that prediction markets and their competitors(casinos/bookies) are spending more money to influence the US Congress. So, this push from two congressmen might have something to do with the lobbying that casinos and bookies have been pushing.

Here's the article in question.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/21/prediction-market-kalshi-polymarket-casino-gaming-lobby-congress.html

If this bill is conveniently targeting sport markets only and leaving the rest of them alone, then it would be almost a confirmation there is some lobbying behind the origin of this bill and the fact it is getting pushed into law.
Sport betting has become very popular and profitable in the United States after all, since it was made legal by some states in 2018.
It would not be very crazy to assume Kalshi and Polymarket have become too inconvenient for some FIAT bookies and casinos, who are seeing their volume being taken away from them in favor of Polymarket and Kalshi.

Politics and money in the United States seem to be always go one close to the other.

[drangos]

Correct me if I am wrong. But assuming this bill is pushed forward by lawmakers and signed into law. Would not that mean Kalshi and Polymarket would be forced to move their headquarters out of the United States and provide their services to only people living outside of the United States?

I would not even sure how Polymarket could enforce or exclude people from participating on their markets, considering bettors do not need to go through any KYC process in order to participate. Someone with a basic VPN could bypass the blockage they could impose on Polymarket and Kalshi.

No, the bill is only for their Sports predictions, not the entire prediction market, meaning, if the bill is passed, they would be forced to block or remove their sports predictions page for US residents who use their platform.

Anyways... I have got the impression there could be hidden interest behind a ban like this one, specially from regulated bookies in the USA which see Polymarket and Kalshi as competition...

Yeah, maybe, and it wouldn't be surprising if it is true, especially when I just saw an article a few days back that prediction markets and their competitors(casinos/bookies) are spending more money to influence the US Congress. So, this push from two congressmen might have something to do with the lobbying that casinos and bookies have been pushing.

Here's the article in question.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/21/prediction-market-kalshi-polymarket-casino-gaming-lobby-congress.html

If this bill is conveniently targeting sport markets only and leaving the rest of them alone, then it would be almost a confirmation there is some lobbying behind the origin of this bill and the fact it is getting pushed into law.
Sport betting has become very popular and profitable in the United States after all, since it was made legal by some states in 2018.
It would not be very crazy to assume Kalshi and Polymarket have become too inconvenient for some FIAT bookies and casinos, who are seeing their volume being taken away from them in favor of Polymarket and Kalshi.

Politics and money in the United States seem to be always go one close to the other.

A key element of the sports bettngs is that the proposal isn't as general as an attempt to regulate bettngs platforms. Lobbying for or against would be hard to establish without clear evidence. But it's logical to assume that sportsbooks and casino operators with established interests would seek to protect their market share by lobbying. Meanwhile the regulators could contend that the contracts are no different from the traditional sports betting. Hence the selection. In the event that the bill becomes law it will be intriguing to observe how platforms respond. do they geoblock U.S. users or do they fight the restrictions in court?

[Wind_FURY]

Someone in X made the bet with $4,643.17 to win $208,942.68 8n Shuffle.

  

That post will probably the most reposted post during Sunday/Monday if the prediction is actually right.

Alright, let's get it! 🫡🇦🇷🙏



https://x.com/littlekid/status/2077815842008347097

So... what happened to this guy?

Anyone followed up on him?

What happened to him? He obviously lost $4643.17 for betting based on a post he read in X.

No one would follow up on someone who lost money. We merely leave them alone to lick their wounds. Although, that amount of money might merely be small for that person.

[mikel_012]

What happened to him? He obviously lost $4643.17 for betting based on a post he read in X.

No one would follow up on someone who lost money. We merely leave them alone to lick their wounds. Although, that amount of money might merely be small for that person.

I totally forgot about the 2011 guy with the Argentina 3-2 score prediction and every one thinking he was magical because he chose two strong teams like Spain and Argentina like it was a super hard prediction to make

Gambler streamers and influencers make a lot of money so he will be fine even after losing $4600 in this prediction bet. The views he received and new following already paid if they use his link to gamble

[khaled0111]

Gambler streamers and influencers make a lot of money so he will be fine even after losing $4600 in this prediction bet. The views he received and new following already paid if they use his link to gamble

I took a look at his X account and it seems he is a whale player. He always shares his big wins and based on what I saw on his most recent tweets (he even got a $50k weekly bonus just recently at one of the casinos he plays at!), losing $4k wouldn’t affect him too much.
He is also a streamer, so his main income comes from referrals and partnership deals, not from his betting winnings (although he seems to be doing very well with his bettings too!).