Luck or Inside Knowledge: User made $436,000 betting on Maduro's downfall.

[Emjay24]

Most of these occurrences are a product of inside knowledge, Invading Venezuela was a very classified information and there is no way it went out if there was no insider tip off. The government officials are not doing this by themselves but are tipping off third parties to win big and who returns their shares in a more legal way.

There is no way I am getting convinced this was luck, it was purely inside knowledge and should be adequately investigated. Government officials are monetizing classified knowledge which is vey bad.

[Agbamoni]

TBH, prediction markets have changed the life of many people. Yesterday, I watched a video where a guy won a huge amount of money by betting on Osimehn to remove his mask in the game. Such options cannot be found in a regular casino or sports book unless it is a prediction market. Last year, some folks were lucky to bet on Trump's tariff war with China and other countries, where they cashed out huge as well.

[_act_]

TBH, prediction markets have changed the life of many people. Yesterday, I watched a video where a guy won a huge amount of money by betting on Osimehn to remove his mask in the game. Such options cannot be found in a regular casino or sports book unless it is a prediction market. Last year, some folks were lucky to bet on Trump's tariff war with China and other countries, where they cashed out huge as well.

The way you posted it, do not think that is how everybody is winning on prediction market, know that the shares (money) that some people are winning is the shares that some are losing on the prediction market.

Also it is good to know that prediction markets and gambling sites are very different entirely, that is the reason some people are saying prediction markets are more about trading.

[Outhue]

On Friday, 2nd January, the odds of Maduro's removal were 6.5%. Before midnight the odds had jumped to 11% and surged in the early hours of January 3rd. The sudden change happened just before Trump announced on Truth Social that Maduro was in US custody. A new Polymarket account that registered last year made more than $436,000 from a $32,537 bet.

There is suspicion that some top government officials had prior information about the attacks and captured the president. This is not new, as some people have also accused Trump's inner circle of benefiting from the tariff war. This sudden change in predictions has caught the attention of Congressman Ritchie Torres who introduced a bill on Monday that seeks to ban government employees from engaging in prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" that relates to the bet

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2gn93292do

Tell me how this is a bad idea because it's really not, there is no way someone who knows nothing can wake up from their bed and decide to place bet on such impossible prediction and still win, this is the work of the government officials who already knew about the operation to bring the president of Venezuela in.

This has been ongoing for months since Trump became the president and funny thing is the president family can also bet on such prediction too because they are in power and they will have access to such information, restricting government officials will not always work, even if the Trump family can't place the bet they can have someone on the outside to place the bet for them.

[wiss19]

A new Polymarket account that registered last year made more than $436,000 from a $32,537 bet.

That's crazy and because it's a new account as you mentioned, the suspicion gets more serious. I'd assume the government officials won't reveal such information for half a million dollars but it might be one of the many.

I'd not be surprised if this indeed is true because Trump can do anything to make money. I'm not against capitalism but things like these should be invested because this is clearly insider trading. Oh well, who will investigate the US president? And that's why he is not scared.

But then I look at all this from purely odds perspective and if the chances were 6.5% that's like 14-15x and it's not that crazy for someone to bet 10 grands on it. You see stake highroller tab, people betting much bigger amounts on more random stuff.

[Cointxz]

There is suspicion that some top government officials had prior information about the attacks and captured the president. This is not new, as some people have also accused Trump's inner circle of benefiting from the tariff war. This sudden change in predictions has caught the attention of Congressman Ritchie Torres who introduced a bill on Monday that seeks to ban government employees from engaging in prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" that relates to the bet

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2gn93292do

This is danger on betting with the market that can be manipulate through inside knowledge. Same with events, awards and many more that result was already predetermined.

We will never know of that user is truly a top official or not since prediction market like polymarket is decentralized.

But, there’s already a sign that US will do this due to provocation of Maduro many times while they have the highest oil reserve.

[Vaculin]

There is suspicion that some top government officials had prior information about the attacks and captured the president.

This suspicion isn’t really surprising anymore!

We already know this kind of “insider info” stuff happens, so it’s nothing new. Some people will always find a way to make money from it.

Even before, there were rumors about insiders making moves. Eric Trump, for example, was mentioned in the past when his father made announcements related to Bitcoin. Things like this are really hard to regulate, especially on platforms like Polymarket, which aren’t exactly strict when it comes to compliance.

[TopTort777]

That's crazy

That is crazy how people use everything to earn. From morale point of view, one country is soon about to face huge changes; lives of many people are about to change into negative direction, but is open for people to speculate and earn on that. It wont be that bad, if someone randomly place a small bet and all of a sudden win and multiply it. But someone has bet large sum, and won almost half a million.

[Free Market Capitalist]

There is suspicion that some top government officials had prior information about the attacks and captured the president.

This suspicion isn’t really surprising anymore!

It's not that it's a suspicion; it's that it's known that some Venezuelan agents have collaborated with the US in the operation, otherwise it wouldn't have been possible. There will surely have been bribes. From there, it's only a small step to taking advantage of that information to gain an edge betting on the issue.

[eisen33]

That's crazy

That is crazy how people use everything to earn. From morale point of view, one country is soon about to face huge changes; lives of many people are about to change into negative direction, but is open for people to speculate and earn on that. It wont be that bad, if someone randomly place a small bet and all of a sudden win and multiply it. But someone has bet large sum, and won almost half a million.

This can't be a coincidence. I don't think many people bet their money on this, and if they did, their stakes were insignificant. But this was a big bet, and it's likely no accident. In such special operations, information will always leak, and there will be those who want to profit from it. Some people have a much lower moral standard than the average person; they're willing to do terrible things for profit, and such bets aren't the worst thing.

[m2017]

This sudden change in predictions has caught the attention of Congressman Ritchie Torres who introduced a bill on Monday that seeks to ban government employees from engaging in prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" that relates to the bet

Government officials should be banned not only from prediction markets but also trading if possible.

How do you actually propose to remove government employees (in this case, insiders with political information that can be used for betting) from the prediction market? No sane official (insider) would do this openly, and of course, they could use figurehead (friends, relatives, or other trusted individuals). How can you distinguish a figurehead from a genuine gambler?

You can't.

And betting with cryptocurrencies opens up broader opportunities for insider betting (if without a KYC). In theory, even a KYC can be circumvented by using figureheads (trusted to the insider).

[coin-investor]

There is no way I am getting convinced this was luck, it was purely inside knowledge and should be adequately investigated. Government officials are monetizing classified knowledge which is vey bad.

They knew it, and one lawmaker wants to make a law against it; if there is no law against this, it will be abuse, and politicians and government people will create a scenario and put it in the prediction market. This Manduro case is a scenario where there is a possibility of leaking information.
The bet was so huge that the bettor seemed to know what was about to happen.

[Synchronice]

On Friday, 2nd January, the odds of Maduro's removal were 6.5%. Before midnight the odds had jumped to 11% and surged in the early hours of January 3rd. The sudden change happened just before Trump announced on Truth Social that Maduro was in US custody. A new Polymarket account that registered last year made more than $436,000 from a $32,537 bet.

There is suspicion that some top government officials had prior information about the attacks and captured the president. This is not new, as some people have also accused Trump's inner circle of benefiting from the tariff war. This sudden change in predictions has caught the attention of Congressman Ritchie Torres who introduced a bill on Monday that seeks to ban government employees from engaging in prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" that relates to the bet

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2gn93292do

Definitely, top government officials and those soldiers would know that they were going to capture Maduro but why on earth would any of them bet 32K on Maduro's capture just to get 400K profit? I bet they have more than that in their pocket and money is not a problem for them. Also, if it gets exposed that any of them used that information for financial benefit, I guess, they will be in a huge trouble.
but it's also suspicious that one account joined the platform 1 month ago and took four positions. I don't know what's true but I think that there is a big chance this person simply risked and placed this bet. Everything is expected from Trump.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

TBH, prediction markets have changed the life of many people. Yesterday, I watched a video where a guy won a huge amount of money by betting on Osimehn to remove his mask in the game. Such options cannot be found in a regular casino or sports book unless it is a prediction market. Last year, some folks were lucky to bet on Trump's tariff war with China and other countries, where they cashed out huge as well.

You are right bro, many people have been lucky with the prediction market, so also are many that have lost millions too, just that when a huge win comes in for some people, the news usually spread faster than when people lose. As for this particular event, I'm guessing that it was an inside information, I could be wrong tho.

[danherbias07]

Yeah, they should not be allowed to gamble, and that's mandatory for government officials.

There's a chance this is a cheat because there's no way someone would take the risk of betting a big amount on Maduro's fall. It's probably someone who has information inside the government or is in contact with the US government about the plan and what will happen. I highly doubt this is just luck.
I think this should be a lesson for every government out there. They should make another law about being strict on government officials about betting on prediction markets, and how cruel the punishment should be once they are proven guilty.

[Joy_learns_crypto]

I saw this and I just said to myself that it is an inside job, the user made $400k with $30k from polymarket, first $30k is too much money to play such if it is not an inside job.
The Maduro capture by America is top secret no one would have believed he will get captured in his bed room along side his wife.
This is not a case of an ordinary inside job it is a top secret inside job and it but be a very powerful source that gave it to the user or the user is a powerful person.

[Justbillywitt]

To ban government officials wouldn't still stop this manipulation because if they're ban and they have the information, they can still leak ot out to their friends or closed ones to bet on and still get a share of the profits. It's annoying to see that Trumps regime a lot of market manipulation and gambling manipulation is on the high side with Trump next moves.

I believe this is not just luck but a leak of information from an insider.

There's no way this will be lucky, it is people that are inside were the decision were taken that leaked out the information. Also I agree with you that banning government officials from betting on such events won't stop the manipulation because they can bet on proxy. To make sure these manipulations don't continue, such political events shouldn't come up in the prediction and trading market again. Because there's no way information like this won't always be leaked out, because the president can't work alone.

[Woodie]

Insider trading very much possible, but looking at the percentage movements this person might have already started putting in the beta which pumped the likelihood.. and knowing the Trump politics am sure someone didn't buy the bluff when Maduro dared the US to come get him and the player didn't fold and was rewarded!!

Damn, nice win $$$

[Oneandpure]

I saw this and I just said to myself that it is an inside job, the user made $400k with $30k from polymarket, first $30k is too much money to play such if it is not an inside job.
The Maduro capture by America is top secret no one would have believed he will get captured in his bed room along side his wife.
This is not a case of an ordinary inside job it is a top secret inside job and it but be a very powerful source that gave it to the user or the user is a powerful person.

That gambler know well about the current condition about Venezuela president Maduro and placing huge bet amount up o $30k, I don't think its purely lucky because know in other internal condition of Maduro and exactly he has much information about the United State's politician exactly with Donald Trump did later. In my opinion, that user won huge amount after placing bet Maduro's downfall purely about inside job and not any luckiness yet regarding how many amount bet placing.

So what the next president must place bet for downfall by United State government any one inside of Donald Trump know well about his next target?  

[lombok]

To ban government officials wouldn't still stop this manipulation because if they're ban and they have the information, they can still leak ot out to their friends or closed ones to bet on and still get a share of the profits. It's annoying to see that Trumps regime a lot of market manipulation and gambling manipulation is on the high side with Trump next moves.

I believe this is not just luck but a leak of information from an insider.

There's no way this will be lucky, it is people that are inside were the decision were taken that leaked out the information. Also I agree with you that banning government officials from betting on such events won't stop the manipulation because they can bet on proxy. To make sure these manipulations don't continue, such political events shouldn't come up in the prediction and trading market again. Because there's no way information like this won't always be leaked out, because the president can't work alone.

It is the presence of unfairness to small traders like us due to the involvement of insiders inside the very place of decision and causes competition in the prediction market to be unfair. It is important to understand that organized bans on bureaucrats do not always work as they are able to work through the hands of other people, secretly. We should appeal to stop any speculation of politics that will lead to selling the secrets of the state to short-run financial interests tainting the morale of the nation. Our major duty is to safeguard the sanctity of the government information so that people might have their trust in the current government system.