Luck or Inside Knowledge: User made $436,000 betting on Maduro's downfall.

[STT]

Kinda figures that its a new kind of market not covered by existing laws hence vastly tempting.  It could come under special prosecution for exploitation and also the early release of the 'news' would indirectly be a leak of privileged information which is jail time.
   If anyone did it they are relying on nobody being motivated to chase the prosecution but I think it easily counts as corruption even without a specific law to outlaw it.   Stocks and other markets are already monitored for suspicious activity for counter terrorism.
 If betting ahead of every special operation giving out this clue which is surely going to be monitored more in future then you are putting people on that operation in danger, its very questionable behavior

[Darker45]

Luck? And with such confidence? Uh-uh. Tens of thousands on a bet that has extremely low odds? I don't think somebody would just rely on luck on a political bet whose result isn't random.

Torres' bill should offer no ifs. It should just be a blanket ban on all government employees from engaging in prediction markets. Confidential information could easily leak among certain officials that aren't necessarily part of the smaller circle that consumes nonpublic information.

Perhaps it should even extend to immediate families.

[Orpichukwu]

To ban government officials wouldn't still stop this manipulation because if they're ban and they have the information, they can still leak ot out to their friends or closed ones to bet on and still get a share of the profits. It's annoying to see that Trumps regime a lot of market manipulation and gambling manipulation is on the high side with Trump next moves.

If there should be a ban, it should not be a light one; it should be like how they ban sport athletes from betting, and they also restrict them from sharing any inner information with others, so if they are not allowed to bet, they are also not allowed to share the information with others, but we all know how these things work; with or without restrictions, those greedy officials will still manoeuvre their way around just to make some profit.

[wozzek23]

Nowadays conflicts involving countries, ethnic cleansing, divisions, coups, and so on can be turned into a source of profit by betting on prediction markets. We are faced with a reality that is increasingly eroding humanity and placing greater emphasis on betting on prediction markets. They can obtain confidential information, get in early and get out early for profit.

what is happening in this world? where everything has to be based on prediction markets, even when thousands of lives are at stake.

Source of profit, maybe for the same people on the OP that has the ability to obtain insider information and can have a guaranteed win but I won't talk early for the regular and honest individuals like us. It is still nice to know that we now have many options to choose from but it is better for us to not support events that potentially harm innocent people like wars for example because it feels not just right.

A prediction market should have the same view as us and not include these on their platforms but because of money, some can have difficulty of doing so. We are only talking about betting here. The world is huge and there are still more into it, if you will only widen your view.

[michellee]

Maybe the secret news is broken so people around Trump benefiting from that. We don't know for sure but we could only suspicion.

It is good Ritchie introduced a bill that will ban government employees from prediction markets.

They can use the news around them to take advantage but the problem is they can ask for help from their friends or relation to place a bet. The government must monitoring and watching out from this activities.

[giammangiato]

These types of bets are interesting, but those who work within certain situations obviously know the outcome of an operation first.
In my opinion, to place such a large bet he already had the certainty or almost all the certainty that it would happen, otherwise I don't think he is simply a "new" user placing a bet that is perhaps the only one to obtain such a large profit.
Another assumption, he may have received a tip or important information and secured the profit.
I don't believe in randomness or probability in this case, not even luck.

[lixer]

Most of these occurrences are a product of inside knowledge, Invading Venezuela was a very classified information and there is no way it went out if there was no insider tip off. The government officials are not doing this by themselves but are tipping off third parties to win big and who returns their shares in a more legal way.

There is no way I am getting convinced this was luck, it was purely inside knowledge and should be adequately investigated. Government officials are monetizing classified knowledge which is vey bad.

This is very similar to what they call pro sportsbetting. Where you gather information about the team/players and injury report before the bookie has it and make your bets. For example, if you find out that Curry is not playing today and the bookie is yet to adjust the market, you can make good money by betting on player props or simply betting on under total points.

I'm unsure about whether it's an inside knowledge or luck but looks very strange. Usually when the odds change so much there is something fishy behind it. Recently a UFC fighter rigged his own fight and he was caught by the movement in odds right before the fight.

[Beparanf]

These types of bets are interesting, but those who work within certain situations obviously know the outcome of an operation first.
In my opinion, to place such a large bet he already had the certainty or almost all the certainty that it would happen, otherwise I don't think he is simply a "new" user placing a bet that is perhaps the only one to obtain such a large profit.
Another assumption, he may have received a tip or important information and secured the profit.
I don't believe in randomness or probability in this case, not even luck.

In addition, No one in their right mind that will place a huge amount with that odds considering that the bet is all about potential war conflict to other country which will ignite chaos against US aggression.

I will not be surprised that this is truly an inside bettor because Trump himself and his family are blatantly scamming users with their meme coin before.

This is some cons of decentralized prediction market on betting to any events including highly manipulated events.

[JeffBrad12]

TBH, prediction markets have changed the life of many people. Yesterday, I watched a video where a guy won a huge amount of money by betting on Osimehn to remove his mask in the game. Such options cannot be found in a regular casino or sports book unless it is a prediction market. Last year, some folks were lucky to bet on Trump's tariff war with China and other countries, where they cashed out huge as well.

It's mostly happening for the insider only, and not ordinary people. The fact that nobody knew if Maduro's operation has already planned ever since a month ago. This kind of event is only benefiting for the insider only. It's also getting clear when Trump said he told his closest person about the secret information.
So we can assume any bettor that won by betting on anything related to the Trump. It's most probably his own close person.

[bubilas]

On Friday, 2nd January, the odds of Maduro's removal were 6.5%. Before midnight the odds had jumped to 11% and surged in the early hours of January 3rd.

I absolutely believe this is true and most likely a case of insider betting manipulation, because, as you rightly noted, someone high-ranking US official or military commander took advantage of their position by predicting Maduro's capture. And of course, Trump always increases his wealth based on his presidency. I heard he's already almost doubled his entire pre-presidential fortune. There's no romance here; everyone benefits as best they can based on their position and the events around them. Yes, it's unfair, but who can do anything about it? The world revolves around dollars.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

On Friday, 2nd January, the odds of Maduro's removal were 6.5%. Before midnight the odds had jumped to 11% and surged in the early hours of January 3rd.

I absolutely believe this is true and most likely a case of insider betting manipulation, because, as you rightly noted, someone high-ranking US official or military commander took advantage of their position by predicting Maduro's capture. And of course, Trump always increases his wealth based on his presidency. I heard he's already almost doubled his entire pre-presidential fortune. There's no romance here; everyone benefits as best they can based on their position and the events around them. Yes, it's unfair, but who can do anything about it? The world revolves around dollars.

I also think there has been some of that. The odds may have gone up simply because one or more insiders started betting and then the bookmaker adjusted them. Although I don't think Trump directly bothered to bet on it. But people who had direct knowledge of the operation did. Nowadays, it's very easy to place a bet from wherever you are, or if you don't want to do it yourself, send a message to your brother/wife/friend to do it for you.

[Dunamisx]

In the world of gambling, anything is possible, we should doubt on what some my be saying, because we don't know how deep inner circles could influence an event, though that of the president Maduro shouldn't come a surprise, because he has been a major target for long, but the time this may happen is what remain unclear or how possible, this should not also encourage some to go for playing related bets, because they may be grounded in it.

[Maus0728]

Most likely there's an insider on this one, I don't gamble that much money but if I were to have that, I wouldn't risk it on something uncertain unless I have a prior knowledge or someone has dropped me a tip that would guarantee me a big win if I go all in. 30k is a lot of money and to be able to make bank on that from that bet is not something you do because you want to risk it without relying on nothing so I'm sure of an insider and whoever it is, they're probably having the time of their life partying right now with some of that win.

[nimogsm]

Maybe the secret news is broken so people around Trump benefiting from that. We don't know for sure but we could only suspicion.

It is good Ritchie introduced a bill that will ban government employees from prediction markets.

They can use the news around them to take advantage but the problem is they can ask for help from their friends or relation to place a bet. The government must monitoring and watching out from this activities.

Government officials cannot participate in predictions, but their friends and relatives can. That's where the scheme continues to work. This prediction service is simply heaven for those with insider information, and those who have access to high-level politics will undoubtedly take advantage of it. There is no doubt about that.

[YOSHIE]

Luck or Inside Knowledge: User made $436,000 betting on Maduro's downfall.

If you are talking about gambling and the Polymarket prediction betting site winning almost half a million, as far as I know, it is not something strange and suspicious about the arrest of Venezuelan president Maduro, what's more, the arrest was carried out by the US.

For me Maduro is not a high-class fugitive in hiding, there are even more dangerous ones besides Maduro, such as Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein, but they can be caught. It's just that at that time the Polymarket site didn't exist yet, if at that time Polymarket had existed maybe we would also see gamblers predicting they would win millions of dollars at that time.

[Mrbluntzy]

There is suspicion that some top government officials had prior information about the attacks and captured the president. This is not new, as some people have also accused Trump's inner circle of benefiting from the tariff war.

The suspicion could be true or not, if you think about it from two dimensions, it's possible that a government official must have placed that bet since he heard the information on time and it might not be only him that has taken that advantage. Think of it in the second dimension and you will agree that anyone can also be as lucky as that, it's just to take the risk and luckily it worked out. That idea of the government to restrict government officials from participating in prediction market should be functional to prevent officials who are opportuned to inside information from taking advantage of the prediction market.

[Dunamisx]

I have been gambling to seek for more opportunity in other to also got rendered with my luck on wining a jackpot one day, but not on this regard, i may not have more interest on something like this, because of the risk, poly market related games are not for people like us, I'd rather maintain my lane and gamble more responsibly with as little i cant afford to stake and win.

[Fiatless]

If there should be a ban, it should not be a light one; it should be like how they ban sport athletes from betting, and they also restrict them from sharing any inner information with others, so if they are not allowed to bet, they are also not allowed to share the information with others, but we all know how these things work; with or without restrictions, those greedy officials will still manoeuvre their way around just to make some profit.

Severe punishment or sanctions for officers who are caught violating the law will serve as a deterrent to others. In sports, long bans and payment of fines have helped to reduce the number of match-fixing incidents that go on in sporting activities. A few years ago, the rate of sports personalities who engaged in insider betting was high. The law should include the sack of political office holders who engage in such practice. Prison terms and fines will also go a long way.

[Franctoshi]

Obviously these are commonly seen in Trump's time, but this is the first one that I have heard of in something that is related to prediction markets like this but which is very possible. Where I have noticed it before was in trading. I saw a trader last year that used huge amount of money to open a position, close the position, Trump came with his announcement and the market went opposite direction. I did not think it was a coincidence at the time. Government officials should be banned not only from prediction markets but also trading if possible.

This is like a day time robbery, taking advantage of others using inside information, obviously government officials should totally get banned from participating in anything prediction market, be it trading or any type of betting. But even if they got banned, This set of people would still go ahead using the information and give to their close confidants. There should be a level playground, not a situation where some people get information which they're not supposed to.

[Oluwa-btc]

There is suspicion that some top government officials had prior information about the attacks and captured the president. This is not new, as some people have also accused Trump's inner circle of benefiting from the tariff war. This sudden change in predictions has caught the attention of Congressman Ritchie Torres who introduced a bill on Monday that seeks to ban government employees from engaging in prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" that relates to the bet

I think there's an insider that have possibly leaked out the whole information to the government officials forthey to have acted in such manner. Even with the ban or not it's shown that the level of corrupted government officials is top tier and they can always get themselves out of the way. So no atom of punishment would serve justice to what has been done.