Speculative & Volatile or Boring & Adopted - what BTC future do you prefer?

[aoluain]

Ok we all agree that individually we cannot determine what way the market will go
based on what we would like but each scenario in the OP is appealing to me.

Who doesnt love high ROI? and the best way to have that is a volatile Bitcoin market,
but obviously that comes with risk - the upside is still appealing.

but is frightening too if you let it be and if you think you will have to sell Bitcoin and buy
it back again regularly well then the second scenario is very appealing, ok you dont
make as much ROI but you also dont get left behind when you need to buy back when
the market has risen 30%.


My own situation back inn 2024 was one of having to sell quite a bit of Bitcoin prior to
the new ATH which was unfortunate and in 2026 I will be in a position to buy back which
was sold os it will be interesting to see how the market is when that time comes.

I am trying to figure out which of the two scenarios would have worked in my favour . . .

I find it really difficult to make that fictional choice between the two . . .

[Fortify]

I think it's highly likely that there are two main scenarios for Bitcoin's economy in the next decades:

1) a speculative & volatile scenario with possible high ROI but also high risk:

Bitcoin continues to be used mostly like today. People (and also businesses) buy it because it's volatile and can yield high ROI if you catch the correct moment to enter and sell near the peaks. In this scenario, we will continue to see wild price swings, spectacular bull markets and insane crashes after massive profit takings. But that would limit adoption to people (and business) with money they can afford to lose.

Price growth would be higher than 30% in most years, sometimes 50% or more, but there is also the possibility of deeply negative years with 50% loss or more.

2) a boring / stable scenario with higher adoption by common people.

Volatility will decrease further driven by more and stronger hands involved, possibly also by BTC adoption "as a currency". You won't get rich if you invest in Bitcoin, but you can store your wealth safely investing in it. So the adoption by "retailers" would be higher, as people with normal salaries can use Bitcoin for their savings without having to fear a deep crash.

Price growth would be less than 10-15% per year, but even in bear markets never more than -10%.

On purpose, I haven't included a "moderate" scenario. It is far more interesting if people would prefer high but risky ROI or a slow, stable growth, otherwise people would gravitate probably to the moderate scenario.

Whether we like it or not, greater adoption and dispersion of Bitcoin - through laws that allow new uses and buyers to come in with less risk, is going to reduce the volatility of bitcoin over time. It's natural that volatility will fall over time for all kinds of reasons. Bitcoin is actually being lost all the time for unrecoverable reasons and possibly traded to more people who may choose to sit on it for a variety of reasons. It also ends up in the hands of more private equity (and rich people) who actually have so much money that they may never resell it again in future because it is just one of their very many toys and speculative assets. While we might encounter large swings from things like new regulation or bans, outside of that it should start to stabilize more over time.

[Ambatman]

2) a boring / stable scenario with higher adoption by common people.

Volatility will decrease further driven by more and stronger hands involved, possibly also by BTC adoption "as a currency". You won't get rich if you invest in Bitcoin, but you can store your wealth safely investing in it. So the adoption by "retailers" would be higher, as people with normal salaries can use Bitcoin for their savings without having to fear a deep crash.

I would prefer this similar to how gold is perceived now but better
And the road towards this stage is going to be accompanied by huge pump which is inevitable
So yeah I still benefit till it gets boring

Boring doesn't really stop individuals from trading leverage
So they can use leverage to cover the lost volatility kind of a win win.

Okay I Know some would say Gold isn't stable but stability at the end is relative
And even supposed USDT ain't really stable.


So Yes, I would be version 2. Imagine a decentralized currency
Growing in value is inevitable no matter how slow as long as we cross the hurdle of mass adoption.

[d5000]

You're offering two opposing scenarios. What if the future bitcoin has a mixed scenario, combining "speculative" and "boring" periods (alternating in time)?

The thread was started with the following idea in mind:

What happens if Bitcoin's ROI becomes too boring for a large number of users? Would they still be comfortable with it, or would they sell?

In the last 5 years we had an average BTC price growth rates at about 25-30% per year. This is still a very high return. But people are already complaining gold and silver have higher returns.

For now, Bitcoin stil outcompetes gold and silver if we look at timeframes of more than a year. But that could be history in a couple of years, even if the general bullish trend persists. Gold in the last 5 years had yearly price increases of 20-25% already, even if it's concentrated on this year's rally and it's possible that the bubble pops. But if Bitcoin's volatility reduction continues, it won't be the "most profitable asset" on the market.

And thus what I want to know with this poll, is: would Bitcoin users still be comfortable with a more boring scenario? Or do they jump of the wagon if Bitcoin becomes too stable?

[jaberwock]

This is such a great thing to see. Not everyone agrees on this, I love seeing this because it wasn't easy and we should probably consider this as something that we should consider as lucky. While it's true that we are seeing this being divisive issue, for the first time that doesn't matter. I did prefer boring and adopted version, that's what I picked here, that was a good one and I think it will definitely do a fine job and wouldn't really matter. I think it's clear that we are going to see this be a very long term solution and not going to end up being a problem at all.

Volatile scenario with high ROI was what bitcoin has been in the last 10+ years of time which may continue but not for another decade. Adoption rate may increase but considering regulations by government, I expect slower rate. Even adoption rate would be higher, we cannot expect everyone to be a long term holder but maybe a daily user like a business adopting bitcoin. Still, high volatile scenario would be possible for that bitcoin need to prove its potential by touching at least 200k level, from that people will realize about the next targets toward 1M level and etc.

[Lida93]

The thread was started with the following idea in mind:

What happens if Bitcoin's ROI becomes too boring for a large number of users? Would they still be comfortable with it, or would they sell?

In a scenario where the ROI isn't correspondingly worthing to the risk taking with funds then it could get boring for a lot of persons, who would look into others innovative alternatives.

And thus what I want to know with this poll, is: would Bitcoin users still be comfortable with a more boring scenario?

No.

Or do they jump of the wagon if Bitcoin becomes too stable?

People wants profit which is what volatility can offer, and not just something that creates some level of stability to their funds.
 Yes, a large wagon jump would be inevitable should bitcoin become stable with no volatility.

[WillyAp]

Traders wish for movement. The more the merrier.
That crypto moves is part of the game. 

[She shining]

The answers would be subjective people react to risks differently. The fact that people still choose to trade risky coins that grants quicker profit shows what majority will lean towards.

[taufik123]

-snip-
We should also remember that a lot of capital is flowing into the derivatives market, which I assume is largely contributed by newcomers entering this type of market. This means we haven't completely lost the source of demand for greater adoption.

With the growing technology of the derivatives market indeed getting more and more crowded,
many newbies who are new to Bitcoin and crypto are coming in and are interested in trading and investing, resulting in more demand for wider adoption, as you say.

But this adoption must also be accompanied by appropriate and supportive regulations from the government, because some countries have different regulations.

Bitcoin has been known for its volatility from the beginning which makes the price fluctuate with high ROI potential and also risk.
But some people want mass adoption to take place which makes the price of Bitcoin stable and the ecosystem stronger.

[Fiatless]

Price stability will make Bitcoin attractive to be used as a legal tender. It would increase adoption and Bitcoin use. I am still new to the Bitcoin industry, and I have not made much money from investing in Bitcoin. I would still prefer the unstable Bitcoin price. Bitcoin has been my best hedge against inflation. A non-volatile Bitcoin would not be a good asset to protect finances from the effects of inflation.

[slapper]

Is this something about what Bitcoin is, and what we want it to be? Because scenario 1 is a present reality. We're living it. The question is, is that sustainable or is that the adolescent stage before either dying or maturing into scenario 2?

But you're taking these to be equally probable when the mechanics tell you otherwise. Volatility does not go down just because we wish it would. It either requires massive market cap (we're talking orders of magnitude greater), or actual velocity as currency. And currency adoption on a massive scale requires stability first and foremost. It's circular.

The "stronger hands" thing, I am skeptical. Institutions aren't stronger hands, they're different hands with different incentives. They are able to increase volatility just as easily through derivatives and leverage. We saw this with every asset class that was financialized.

What I do think happens (and you said no moderate scenario but whatever) is we get stuck in a weird middle state. Volatile enough that normal people could not use it for savings, stable enough that the 10x moonshots fade away. The worst of both. Not boring enough to trust but not exciting enough to take the risk. That's the scenario nobody wants but perhaps most realistic given the way these systems actually evolve.

[d5000]

In a scenario where the ROI isn't correspondingly worthing to the risk taking with funds then it could get boring for a lot of persons, who would look into others innovative alternatives.

That would already be an intermediate scenario: "Boring & Poorly adopted".

It is indeed the scenario I consider the most negative one for Bitcoin (a scenario not very different of many altcoins'), and that's why it would be very important to slowly advance into the "payment tool" / "currency" field.

And @slapper, you nailed the dilemma:

Volatility does not go down just because we wish it would. It either requires massive market cap (we're talking orders of magnitude greater), or actual velocity as currency. And currency adoption on a massive scale requires stability first and foremost. It's circular.

The scenario that could work is the following one:

- More people adopt Bitcoin, still for speculation but with a little bit less risk, once volatility becomes a little bit more predictable. I'd talk here about a state when for 5 years (i.e. longer than the past "cycles"), in no year it has lost more than 50%.
- They slowly start to spend it. Merchants could play a role here because they could prefer a Bitcoin (e.g. via Lightning) with 0.1% fee and 10 seconds confirmation to a credit card system with 3-6% fees and (final) confirmations of several days. So merchants who are brave enough to withstand the volatility could offer discounts for Bitcoin payers, and then customers could follow.

This could then start the "circle" or "spiral" into the currency adoption -> more stability process.

And as you wrote, we could "land" in a "boring & poorly adopted" scenario (see above) if this process doesn't happen.

The "stronger hands" thing, I am skeptical. Institutions aren't stronger hands, they're different hands with different incentives. They are able to increase volatility just as easily through derivatives and leverage. We saw this with every asset class that was financialized.

I'm divided about this. If we can conclude something regarding the last 2 years' influence of institutional investors, it seems that short term volatility is still as high as ever, but longer terms become quieter. For example, we had neither a +30% crash nor a +50% bull in a single month.

[Darker45]

Since you're asking about preference, I'm voting for speculative and volatile. Let the market remain wild. I love the risk. Let there be regretful wailings and ecstatic celebrations. But perhaps I can confidently choose it only because I've already learned my lesson, that if you stay put and never leave, the market will eventually reward you.

However, it seems my preference isn't the overall direction the market is taking. With how adoption is progressing, and if it continues to be so, I think we're approaching the boring and adopted stage. With Bitcoin's rising price, the spreading ownership, the cheap fees, second-layer solutions becoming more and more reliable, growing usage as a currency, and so forth, volatility will inevitably go down, growth becomes moderate, price swings minimal, and so on. But I think the height of this boring state will only happen when Bitcoin is already past $1 million.

BTW, "Speculative & Volatile" has zero votes until now...

It has now doubled the votes of the borings.