Time to long Bitcoin or further drop ?

[Wind_FURY]

Now is a influx of BTC from small holders on Binance has reached a 9-year low. Shrimp is a cohort that makes transactions worth less than 1 BTC. The average monthly inflow of funds from this group to Binance was 384 BTC, which was the lowest since 2017. For example, in January 2021, the inflow was 2,700 BTC.
In March 2024, the activity of retail investors was moderate: 1,250 and 900 BTC per month.
Significant spikes caused by panic were observed when BTC dropped to 60k.

Low inflows indicate a weakening of selling pressure, which is a positive signal.

This may already be obvious to you, and some of our fellow plebs, but another indicator of a weakening of sell pressure and the strengthening of price support is when a large holder sells and DIPs the price, but then the market merely absorbs it and the price returns from where it started before the large holders sell order.

It happened mere hours ago. A large holder made a market order to sell in $67,500, causing a DIP to $64,500, then the market absorbed it and the price currently returning to $67,500.

 

[summonerrk]

Now is a influx of BTC from small holders on Binance has reached a 9-year low. Shrimp is a cohort that makes transactions worth less than 1 BTC. The average monthly inflow of funds from this group to Binance was 384 BTC, which was the lowest since 2017. For example, in January 2021, the inflow was 2,700 BTC.
In March 2024, the activity of retail investors was moderate: 1,250 and 900 BTC per month.
Significant spikes caused by panic were observed when BTC dropped to 60k.

Low inflows indicate a weakening of selling pressure, which is a positive signal.

This may already be obvious to you, and some of our fellow plebs, but another indicator of a weakening of sell pressure and the strengthening of price support is when a large holder sells and DIPs the price, but then the market merely absorbs it and the price returns from where it started before the large holders sell order.

It happened mere hours ago. A large holder made a market order to sell in $67,500, causing a DIP to $64,500, then the market absorbed it and the price currently returning to $67,500.

 

Yes, a great example mate. I noticed same cases too.

Bitcoin fell by -4.5% in just 2 hours, dropping to a market capitalization of $64.2 thousand for the first time since February 5. Damn it, that was harsh.
Many long positions were eliminated, and BTC open interest dropped to $19.5 billion, less than half of the peak value of $38.3 billion recorded on January 14, 2026.
Despite the fact that this pullback occurred late on Sunday evening in the United States (usually a time of low social media activity), negative sentiment soared to a two-week high. Well, of course, because it's a panic in such a sharp fall. Well, after breaking through the $65,000 support level, retail quickly went into disinformation mode, which historically can contribute to a rapid rebound, because we know of many such cases of rapid buybacks. And then those who did not place pending orders become sad.

[Wind_FURY]

Now is a influx of BTC from small holders on Binance has reached a 9-year low. Shrimp is a cohort that makes transactions worth less than 1 BTC. The average monthly inflow of funds from this group to Binance was 384 BTC, which was the lowest since 2017. For example, in January 2021, the inflow was 2,700 BTC.
In March 2024, the activity of retail investors was moderate: 1,250 and 900 BTC per month.
Significant spikes caused by panic were observed when BTC dropped to 60k.

Low inflows indicate a weakening of selling pressure, which is a positive signal.

This may already be obvious to you, and some of our fellow plebs, but another indicator of a weakening of sell pressure and the strengthening of price support is when a large holder sells and DIPs the price, but then the market merely absorbs it and the price returns from where it started before the large holders sell order.

It happened mere hours ago. A large holder made a market order to sell in $67,500, causing a DIP to $64,500, then the market absorbed it and the price currently returning to $67,500.

 

Yes, a great example mate. I noticed same cases too.

Bitcoin fell by -4.5% in just 2 hours, dropping to a market capitalization of $64.2 thousand for the first time since February 5. Damn it, that was harsh.

Many long positions were eliminated, and BTC open interest dropped to $19.5 billion, less than half of the peak value of $38.3 billion recorded on January 14, 2026.

Despite the fact that this pullback occurred late on Sunday evening in the United States (usually a time of low social media activity), negative sentiment soared to a two-week high. Well, of course, because it's a panic in such a sharp fall. Well, after breaking through the $65,000 support level, retail quickly went into disinformation mode, which historically can contribute to a rapid rebound, because we know of many such cases of rapid buybacks. And then those who did not place pending orders become sad.

It's currently happening again. An entity sells a sizable amount of Bitcoin, the price will DIP while the market sell orders are happening, the market absorbs it, THEN when the entity stops, the price is stable. NO market panic. It's not like the Bear Cycles during 2018/2022 anymore.

Although, those Panic DIPs would be good for those who have placed their bids very low.

 

[summonerrk]

Volatility has peaked since 2022.
A huge $75k call-wall with a volume of $530 million has been standing unchanged for 10 days.
This is the main goal and at the same time the main barrier.
The inflection point is somewhere at: $70,500.
This is the "red line". As soon as BTC gains a foothold above $70,500, the market will move into a positive range. Market makers will have to buy bitcoin as the price rises. This will trigger a Short Squeeze, which could raise BTC to the 73K-75K range...
The risk of a Gamma squeeze is down:
 If the $60,000 level is breached, the next major stop is at $56K and then $50K. The market is currently under maximum stress. The gap between the price and the institutional option positioning of $75k is almost 20%. Usually, such gaps are closed either by a sharp increase or a complete trend reversal in March.

[dunfida]

To be honest , I longed from 65k . But I now start to have another fear of a slow drop from the current price . I will appreciate some technical analysis or opinions.

Why you were not sure about your decision, then you did you decide to enter the market? Before you enter a trade, you are suppose to be so sure about your analysis, and if you are a newbie trader, why do you decide to go into future trading, you know it’s so risky to trade futures, and any wrong decision which you make, you going to be liquidated, that’s why future trading isn’t for everyone, and since you are not sure about the direction which the market will take, you should have just stayed away from the market for some time.

On the moment that you do dive in into this market then you should be doing it on making up with your own analysis whether you should be going some buy or selling or would be waiting. It would be just that too impossible  that you wont be able to notice it out at the time that you would be able to experience on how this market behaves. Always put up into our minds that this market is really  that unpredictable and there's no way that we can be able to tell on where it would be heading or going but on the moment that you will be able to have that experience then you would be having that idea at least on what you should gonna do. For now the price is tanking above 60k+ but once we would be able to break that support then we will might be able to see 50k price soon or ever lower. Actually no one really knows on whats ahead if we do speak about price movements.

This is why its important that you should be always having that reserved stable coins on which you can make out some buybacks at the time that the market will be giving out some discount prices. If it keeps going down then hold your emotion and dont become impulsive at this time.

[hostm]

I'm long Bitcoin. I bought at 66,119, with a stop-loss at 65,800. Other information is on my image.



Stop losst at break even after the first two takes - at 66200

This is an intraday scalping strategy, and the margins are very high, as you can see. But this strategy is profitable.

The trade was closed with a small profit, the first two targets were reached and a stop loss was set at breakeven. I'm looking for a new entry point.

My goal is to achieve a win rate of 80% profitable and 20% losing trades. Therefore, I should close four out of five trades in profit. If this works for at least two months, it will mean my strategy is successful.

[0xredhot]

I'm long Bitcoin. I bought at 66,119, with a stop-loss at 65,800. Other information is on my image.

https://i.postimg.cc/85zQfHV6/btc-long-02-25.jpg

Stop losst at break even after the first two takes - at 66200

This is an intraday scalping strategy, and the margins are very high, as you can see. But this strategy is profitable.

The trade was closed with a small profit, the first two targets were reached and a stop loss was set at breakeven. I'm looking for a new entry point.

My goal is to achieve a win rate of 80% profitable and 20% losing trades. Therefore, I should close four out of five trades in profit. If this works for at least two months, it will mean my strategy is successful.

Nice catch, I think you got it, I did set up TP little earlier for BTC around 67k, but Hype did the thing for me.

https://cdn.fileshare.ing/production/uingqmv9ly.png

[Wind_FURY]

Volatility has peaked since 2022.
A huge $75k call-wall with a volume of $530 million has been standing unchanged for 10 days.
This is the main goal and at the same time the main barrier.
The inflection point is somewhere at: $70,500.
This is the "red line". As soon as BTC gains a foothold above $70,500, the market will move into a positive range. Market makers will have to buy bitcoin as the price rises. This will trigger a Short Squeeze, which could raise BTC to the 73K-75K range...

 👍

It happened AGAIN like we hypothesized yesterday. Someone sold a large amount of Bitcoin, it caused a DIP, and the market absorbed it. Currently, everyone started to notice, and they're probably front-running each other right now, causing the mini-surge.

The risk of a Gamma squeeze is down:
 If the $60,000 level is breached, the next major stop is at $56K and then $50K. The market is currently under maximum stress. The gap between the price and the institutional option positioning of $75k is almost 20%. Usually, such gaps are closed either by a sharp increase or a complete trend reversal in March.

Teach a pleb like me. What's a "Gamma Squeeze"? Does that mean a large DIP?

 

[summonerrk]

Teach a pleb like me. What's a "Gamma Squeeze"? Does that mean a large DIP?

 

You can Google it...

The gamma squeeze for Bitcoin is a sharp price spike caused not just by coin purchases, but by the need for market makers to hedge their options.
Simply put, the whole mechanics of this phenomenon are as follows:
1. First, traders massively buy expensive call options (they bet on growth above the strike, for example, above $100,000).
2. Market makers in the form of exchanges/ funds who sold these options in order not to take risks, begin to actively buy real bitcoins on the spot. The party begins.
3. The price of Bitcoin is starting to skyrocket, obviously.
4. The closer the price rises to the cherished goal, the more market makers have to buy coins in their wallets in order to hedge their positions.
5. This is when the so—called snowball effect occurs - purchases accelerate the price more and more, and a high price requires even more purchases. Everything is connected in a circle.

[summonerrk]

Nice catch, I think you got it, I did set up TP little earlier for BTC around 67k, but Hype did the thing for me.

As for the technical analysis: The wall of orders for 70K is completely removed, then it reappears. These are bot manipulations. However, sell orders have reappeared at this level. There is no serious support above 67K yet. It is more likely that BTC will remain in the 67K–70K range today.
After the longest 5-week series of outflows over the past year, crypto assets attracted more than $1 billion in net cash flow
By region, as usual, the USA is the leader (957 million) and Canada, Germany and Switzerland made a small contribution.:Bitcoin + $881 million It's good.

[Cryptomann4562]

I still waiting or searching for a good position 

[imthegreat]

Nice catch, I think you got it, I did set up TP little earlier for BTC around 67k, but Hype did the thing for me.

As for the technical analysis: The wall of orders for 70K is completely removed, then it reappears. These are bot manipulations. However, sell orders have reappeared at this level. There is no serious support above 67K yet. It is more likely that BTC will remain in the 67K–70K range today.
After the longest 5-week series of outflows over the past year, crypto assets attracted more than $1 billion in net cash flow
By region, as usual, the USA is the leader (957 million) and Canada, Germany and Switzerland made a small contribution.:Bitcoin + $881 million It's good.

Bitcoin is now behaving like a very complex asset. It's like he's self-defining now, behaving in multiple layers. It doesn't seem to fall during escalations, but has even grown, as you correctly noted. But it doesn't fly away, although the liquidity is splashing back and forth, and the issue is limited. I think it's like Newton's law of equilibrium between two multidirectional forces that end up with zero. And in our case, the corridor is 60-70, which has already been checked from both sides more than once.
Analysts are trying to discern correlations: Bitcoin, the way technology campaign stocks behave, no longer mirrors the dollar (or even the same), and it no longer fits with Nasdaq.
It seems to have been noticed that it is now behaving like a software stock, but it feels like a temporary correlation. Bitcoin is not a software program. And even if these stocks go down because of AI, I personally don't think that Bitcoin should follow them to the floor for any reason.
In general, the self-identification of digital gold is now at its peak...

[liasbaa]

To be honest , I longed from 65k . But I now start to have another fear of a slow drop from the current price . I will appreciate some technical analysis or opinions.

This is the mentally assessment of an investor or trader because when they reach the level they expect they expect more. You wanted to buy Bitcoin when the price is $65k but the endless movement of the market always makes it unstable for investors especially those who trade in the short term. Traders are focused on buying low and selling high in a short time, as a result they have to always keep an eye on the market price. For example it is one of the reasons for their financial losses and increases mental stress.

By analyzing the market you will increase your experience this is correct but to get the expected return, focus on long term investment and buy Bitcoin regardless of the price. Expect a dip in price for aggressive buying.

[DPHOR]

It happened mere hours ago. A large holder made a market order to sell in $67,500, causing a DIP to $64,500, then the market absorbed it and the price currently returning to $67,500.

Usually when the selling pressure is above the buying pressure you would often see the market dip without absorbing the pressure which could likely caused more dip, but when the buying pressure is above the selling you would definitely see the market maintaining its prices or it would likely rise above the previous price because the buying is above the selling so there would be no negative impact on the market.

[batang_bitcoin]

Just keep that long because if you've seen what happened for this week, that's a profit if you've looked at it. But if not, you're still above that price you've bought it.

By analyzing the market you will increase your experience this is correct but to get the expected return, focus on long term investment and buy Bitcoin regardless of the price. Expect a dip in price for aggressive buying.

There are many investors who are so hasty and think of the very short term for their returns. If they've seen that the possibility is there due to volatility, they'd be happy to take profit. But if it hits them back and they go into loss, they're going to take it seriously and will get disappointed that will make them not want to invest anymore.

[Mpamaegbu]

~

It happened AGAIN like we hypothesized yesterday. Someone sold a large amount of Bitcoin, it caused a DIP, and the market absorbed it. Currently, everyone started to notice, and they're probably front-running each other right now, causing the mini-surge.

As long as the US–Iran war is still on, every green candle or bullish day is suspect to me. This is why I never felt excited with all the green candles I've see since this war began. I'm very much nonchalant about how the market is fairing at the moment. Now, it's evident that a lot of manipulation is going on. Whales and institutions intentionally dump only to buy back a few days letter. To be honest, I don't blame them. They're investors who know how to play smart. Maybe I would do the same if I were hodling a large quantity of Bitcoin too. What I blame myself for is if I allow myself fall victim to this market manipulation. Staying on the sidelines and not trading is actually another form of trading too. It preserves one's capital.

[Dreadboost]

I personally feel that bitcoin is done with distribution/sell balance, and it's ready to rally, from my own personal analysis that is what I observed, although from what I did observe the recent impulse move it made is not the move it might still be interested to come down and take Oders from maked Oder block before it pushes up to take out the recent All time high

[bitgolden]

As long as the US–Iran war is still on, every green candle or bullish day is suspect to me. This is why I never felt excited with all the green candles I've see since this war began. I'm very much nonchalant about how the market is fairing at the moment. Now, it's evident that a lot of manipulation is going on. Whales and institutions intentionally dump only to buy back a few days letter. To be honest, I don't blame them. They're investors who know how to play smart. Maybe I would do the same if I were hodling a large quantity of Bitcoin too. What I blame myself for is if I allow myself fall victim to this market manipulation. Staying on the sidelines and not trading is actually another form of trading too. It preserves one's capital.

Yes, plus it is not just about the war itself, we are seeing bear cycle of the four year cycle that always happens in the bitcoin world, so not like this is a new thing, it's something that we keep seeing all the time, it is not the same at all.

I think it's quite clear that we are going to see this be a different situation on the long run. I get that it may not be all that complicated for some people to see that the bear will go on and we are going to face a situation where the price goes down.

[Dewi Aries]

Declines are a perfectly normal part of the market; all traders experience them because that's how the market operates. If you think that after allocating money, the market will immediately rise significantly, you're dead wrong. Corrections always occur, and that's perfectly normal. Support and resistance levels always alternate over time. This is why I always trade using the DCA strategy. If you're unsure about Bitcoin, you can look at its track record over the past few years. I'm confident that once the war drama in the Middle East is over, Bitcoin will skyrocket again.

[Oluwa-btc]

To be honest , I longed from 65k . But I now start to have another fear of a slow drop from the current price . I will appreciate some technical analysis or opinions.

The best advice at this point is Bitcoin holding for long term, that's the safest and reliable investment one can behold inorder to be profitable in the long run and again when leveraging becomes low it affects the price. It's just that most traders are after quick results in no time other than  getting to observe the markets to avoid being manipulated. Whereas when you observe the drop in price it's a medium to stop alternating.