Oil will be high for a while

[STT]

Not all oil is equal, Venezuela really struggled with their high cost sour oil as it requires alot of refinement to achieve a sale price so they were involving India, China and even Iran I think in that processing.  Cuba  I think was providing doctors in exchange for the oil at one point.
   They didnt really have a full working economy from that heavy sour oil  so they might even benefit now but I wouldn't compare them to the Saudi oil reserves which are perfectly  monetized in comparison though the war has messed that up for them.

My personal bet is on natural gas for USA because its got even more available then oil if it could be used.  The AI data centres can use it and anywhere that requires alot of power in one place, the infrastructure to use it  more widely might be lacking.  Natural gas can even be used in vehicles, USA has enough natual gas reserves spare to replace every other form of energy use domestically for the next 70 years and thats alot of energy.
  It would take investment to do that but as its more bulky energy then oil or coal its best used close to where its extracted sometimes thats alongside the oil.

  The octane of natural gas vs oil or gasoline is 120, its very stable which could be good with modern engines I think.   Diesel engines can also be assisted by use of LPG  to produce more power and reduce diesel consumption I think.  Obviously heating and even aircon can be powered or almost anything via turbine usage.

[pooya87]

Saudi has   268 Billion
Iran has     209 Billion
Kuwait has 101 Billion
Iraq has     145 Billion
UAE has       98 billion

Speaking of oil reserves, there has been classified reports (some from WW3 aka Cold War era) indicating Yemen has the largest oil and gas reserves that puts all these numbers you posted here to shame. It's untouched too.

This is why 12 years ago the Epstein Axis invaded Yemen and started committing atrocities including genocide and then tried to split this country into little regions which they could control with their proxies that included al-Qaeda.

This week ended that Epstein dream though. With Armed Forces of Yemen rapidly advancing and liberating 5400 km² in matter of days kicking out the Wahhabi/Takfiri forces of the Axis and taking back the strategic cities such as al-Khawkhah and even liberating more strategic Yemeni islands in the Red Sea. Something that will help them increase their dominance in the Strait of Bab al-Mandab and enforce their retaliatory blockade on the Axis even better[1].

And since Saudi usurpers of Arabia are part of that Axis and tried to carry out airstrikes in support of their proxies, the Armed Forces of Yemen retaliated by both bombing Saudi military bases and Saudi energy infrastructure. Specifically their east-west pipeline which was obliterated in 8 strategic locations (including the pumps). That basically crippled the Saudi oil production (it hit 3 decade low) and most importantly oil export.

On top of that, the Chinese finally stopped only using their oil reserves and are now starting to buy oil. This is why the fake oil price is currently at $104 and the actual price it is being traded at is closer to $200 a barrel.

[1] I wrote a short history of the Epstein Axis conflict with Yemen and the reason for the retaliatory blockade here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5589562.msg66993800#msg66993800

[Lida93]

I have been told Diesel hit 10$ in some places (California) in the US.
I don't know if this game will benefit the US in the end, but the journey toward victory is going to be long and painful for everyone.

Let face the reality mate, this wars ain't benefiting the average US citizens than it's doing for Trump and his billionaires circle. I'm all of this the victory for both sides of the conflict would definitely be the elite class while the pains goes to the regular folks.

Diesel hitting $10 in pump price anywhere in the world who does it benefits, the gas station company owners or the consumers?!

[Oluwa-btc]

Let face the reality mate, this wars ain't benefiting the average US citizens than it's doing for Trump and his billionaires circle. I'm all of this the victory for both sides of the conflict would definitely be the elite class while the pains goes to the regular folks.

Diesel hitting $10 in pump price anywhere in the world who does it benefits, the gas station company owners or the consumers?!

They can not afford medical care, the price of groceries way too high and diesel which runs every down thing for them just on the high rise. What I don't understand and like is the fact that I see a whole lot of people calling these warmongers and pedophile elite. What is elite about them?!
I'm not sure it is $10 already. It seem exaggerated. Last I saw it was $8 ( around that ). Well, this is the price they pay for voting a moronic, low IQ, constantly shitting in his pants who thinks he is the greatest president in the United States. He is only good with bringing chaos and leaving whatever he manages in great debt and bankruptcy.

[DrBeer]

If the war between US, and Iran is finally over, the price of petroleum products will eventually go down, but not as people are expecting because it is going to be a gradual process.

Btw, nobody has ever promised that oil price would go do when the war will be over. Twisted logic, but when traders see that someone is ready to buy for price A, then why would they sell it for a lower price when people are ready to pay high? Sad truth, but due to increased fuel price I dont see less cars on the roads. I still get stuck at same time in same traffic jams, still see same amount of people in shops, at the airport. People around look that they have adopted to high price. Btw, long time ago it was said that "car is luxury than necessity".

That’s a controversial claim, and I’ll explain why:
- There are PLENTY of oil reserves!
- The artificial restrictions that existed were already on the verge of being lifted (issues with OPEC and OPEC+)
- The current problem is the logistics of transporting oil produced in a single region.

If this last problem is solved, suppliers will be happy to sell oil and earn money to develop and support the economy, rather than driving prices "through the roof", which reduces sales volumes - especially during a prolonged period of lost profits.

P.S. In the USSR, they used to say that a car was a luxury But in the USSR, a car was almost the "meaning of life" - though that was a whole different story

[Abiky]

They can not afford medical care, the price of groceries way too high and diesel which runs every down thing for them just on the high rise. What I don't understand and like is the fact that I see a whole lot of people calling these warmongers and pedophile elite. What is elite about them?!
I'm not sure it is $10 already. It seem exaggerated. Last I saw it was $8 ( around that ). Well, this is the price they pay for voting a moronic, low IQ, constantly shitting in his pants who thinks he is the greatest president in the United States. He is only good with bringing chaos and leaving whatever he manages in great debt and bankruptcy.

Politicians usually lie to get what they want. Donald Trump promised no new wars, yet he dragged the US into a war against Iran for his own economic benefit. While people are suffering with high oil prices, Trump and his team continue to fill his pockets with money. It's not really "The Golden Age of America", but rather "The Golden Age for Oil Companies". Diesel prices are insane these days. Since it's the primary fuel for jets/airplanes and trucks, everything from groceries to essential goods will rise like skyrocket. Gasoline is also near $5 per gallon, but Diesel is the one that's most concerning.

For a lower cost of living, Diesel must go down first. One can hope that after the war ends, countries find alternative shipping routes to avoid another disaster like this from repeating itself in the future. Iran can't rely on the "Strait of Hormuz" as leverage forever. At the same time, the US can't start wars without first focusing on diplomacy. Both countries are to blame. We'll see what happens by the end of Donald Trump's term.

[fruktik]

These big, greedy oil companies will continue to fill their pockets with money for the duration of the war. The longer the conflict between the US and Iran, the more profit such companies will be able to make. The future is all about reducing (or eliminating completely) the dependence of oil. Especially in the energy sector. It's going to take quite some time before the world is ready for this transition.

At least, oil prices won't stay high forever. Like you've stated, the US midterms are coming. Dems will probably win, setting back Trump's ambitions to prolong the war. If Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress, then it would be complete disaster. These are uncertain times, so anything's possible.

Why do you think the world isn't ready for such a transition? Let me let you in on a secret: it is already happening at a breakneck pace, yet you stubbornly refuse to see it.

Let’s look at the statistics. Take China, for example. Why? Because it is home to about 1.5 billion people. Just imagine the level of consumption—an enormous amount of oil is required to meet those needs. Yet, the Chinese chose a different path. They started manufacturing electric vehicles. And do you know how many are on the roads today? Over 30%. That means nearly 500 million electric vehicles that don't need gasoline or diesel. And that’s just the beginning. As I understand it, China plans to replace all internal combustion engine vehicles with electric ones within a few years. What does this mean? Oil purchases will drop significantly. There will no longer be an acute need for it. Yes, there will still be industries that cannot function without it, but they represent only a tiny fraction.

[drangos]

I'm in agreement oil prices may not spike right back up immediately after the war. But I believe recovery will be more than just fixing up some infrastructure. Oil is a global commodity. So outside the conflict zone producers can step up production and governments can also tap into their strategic reserves if there is a shortage. Demand also plays a part. As an increase in price could lead to less demand. And also inspire businesses to seek out substitutes. This not only allows time for the physical damage to be fixed. But it also allows the market time to adjust. My guess is that in my opinion the bigger question is when will the disruption in transportation and supply routes end. A short war will result in a price shock. And longer disruptions could alter trade routes and supply contracts for much longer. The post war oil market then, may not be back to normal  it may be different.

[Uhwuchukwu53]

The connectivity of war in our world today is a clear indication that oil will go up mostly as it coming from those nation that have over 15,to 20 percentage of oil shipping in the world, since the beginning of Russia and Ukraine war many other oil producing nation have entered into war , Iran, US and Israel, then the current one involving houtis and souadi Arabia, since this nation are oil producing nation we can't expect anything as oil price fall but will either increase except there's a wave of total ceases fire where production will return to normal but it's not even possible it will happen so fast because of some damages that have taken place already that need replacement. I can never disagree with the title of this very write up because it's obvious except some who lack information about the current happening within this regions where some of this oil are produced, we all have seen what happened when the strait of Hormuz was totally closed all this indicate not total free flow even when production was intact now that some products has been shutdown oil will definitely go high.

[fillippone]

These big, greedy oil companies will continue to fill their pockets with money for the duration of the war. The longer the conflict between the US and Iran, the more profit such companies will be able to make. The future is all about reducing (or eliminating completely) the dependence of oil. Especially in the energy sector. It's going to take quite some time before the world is ready for this transition.

At least, oil prices won't stay high forever. Like you've stated, the US midterms are coming. Dems will probably win, setting back Trump's ambitions to prolong the war. If Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress, then it would be complete disaster. These are uncertain times, so anything's possible.

Why do you think the world isn't ready for such a transition? Let me let you in on a secret: it is already happening at a breakneck pace, yet you stubbornly refuse to see it.

Let’s look at the statistics. Take China, for example. Why? Because it is home to about 1.5 billion people. Just imagine the level of consumption—an enormous amount of oil is required to meet those needs. Yet, the Chinese chose a different path. They started manufacturing electric vehicles. And do you know how many are on the roads today? Over 30%. That means nearly 500 million electric vehicles that don't need gasoline or diesel. And that’s just the beginning. As I understand it, China plans to replace all internal combustion engine vehicles with electric ones within a few years. What does this mean? Oil purchases will drop significantly. There will no longer be an acute need for it. Yes, there will still be industries that cannot function without it, but they represent only a tiny fraction.

In vast part of the world, oli is needed for electricity production. Gas, for example is the backbone of European è electricity grid.
Thai is as stupid as it sounds, but that is the reality of European power market.
Electric cars in this case only put the same problems a little bit farther than an internal combustion engine.

[G_Besar]

In vast part of the world, oli is needed for electricity production. Gas, for example is the backbone of European è electricity grid.
Thai is as stupid as it sounds, but that is the reality of European power market.
Electric cars in this case only put the same problems a little bit farther than an internal combustion engine.

In fact, this reality isn't unique to Europe; it's also true outside of Europe. When electric cars are mass-produced, their manufacturers will also rely on oil as their primary source of combustion to power their engines. Therefore, energy sources like oil will continue to be needed by everyone, especially companies that manufacture electric cars or those that manufacture electric engines for other purposes. And even in certain countries like Indonesia, oil prices remain relatively high due to the relatively high demand for everyday vehicles.

[Youngrebel]

In fact, this reality isn't unique to Europe; it's also true outside of Europe. When electric cars are mass-produced, their manufacturers will also rely on oil as their primary source of combustion to power their engines. Therefore, energy sources like oil will continue to be needed by everyone, especially companies that manufacture electric cars or those that manufacture electric engines for other purposes. And even in certain countries like Indonesia, oil prices remain relatively high due to the relatively high demand for everyday vehicles.

Even with the growth of electric vehicles, oil won’t suddenly become irrelevant because modern manufacturing still depends on petroleum for transportation, plastics, and chemicals many other industrial processes. And EVs can actually reduce the amount of oil needed for road transportation, which is one of the biggest sources of demand.

[STT]

Gas, for example is the backbone of European è electricity grid.

   There are giant amounts in northern Iraq too, ask some of the largest oil companies globally and they should tell you gas is able to replace oil but it requires investment to be made long term.  EU relied on Russia far too much expecting rational western long term moves to sell its gas, so Germany and many places were fully leaning on Russia now they are stuck on middle east and thats precarious also.
   I've read many times this century especially due to fracking advances, all of USA could be powered by natural gas.   All electric use but its just not setup at present to do that.  The resource is there, probably more readily available then Yemen.  Gas requires infrastructure in place. 

  The refining capability to handle Venezuela oil however is there and has been for some time, just that tricky revolution messed things up.  It should be done so that both parties benefit never just one side.

  I was following oil production exploration in the horn of Africa for a while, that bit of land just across the water from Saudi Arabia and Yemen.  Its geologically the same type of land and the oil seeps from the ground but unfortunately for those paying the bills it was not found to be economically viable to extract that oil for now.
  Geology trumps all other factors, Iran is exploiting the geological situation, and it should have been known to leave that mess well alone regardless of who is right was it necessary.

[pooya87]

Real oil price is currently north of $150 at minimum despite what the websites reporting the price say ($103-ish). This is crystal clear when you look at price of petroleum products like gas and diesel. They are all skyrocketing since the crude oil prices are skyrocketing and most important of all there is an increasing shortage that gets worse every day... all because of the wars US regime starts around the globe as part of their destabilization a doctrine. Something I predicted a year ago: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5563170.0

The bitcoin dips become that much more important knowing that though. Start accumulating since it won't be long before we start shooting to the moon...

[Mr_Brilliant$]

Even if the oil price drops now. It will take time for businesses to actually get back in line again. Just imagine during this crisis, companies have ran into debt; collecting loans here and there just to meet up, production capacity drops just because of the price of the global oil. Things are bought expensive. Sure, it will take a long time before this settles down. And from the looks of things, it's not happening anything soon.

[RockBell]

Even if the oil price drops now. It will take time for businesses to actually get back in line again. Just imagine during this crisis, companies have ran into debt; collecting loans here and there just to meet up, production capacity drops just because of the price of the global oil. Things are bought expensive. Sure, it will take a long time before this settles down. And from the looks of things, it's not happening anything soon.

The price will ultimately decrease, but as you pointed out, the issue is that things won't simply get cheaper, and the price is starting to become an issue since how many people can truly afford the rate fuel prices are rising? Fuel is one of the factors because they will undoubtedly carry goods, and you will often question what has put us in this predicament.  And the US is claiming to bring peace, and we have not seen any changes. Everyone is already tired because the politicians have fucked everything up, and it's easy to destroy but difficult to fix we deserve better.

[Oluwa-btc]

After watching the comments from Donald Trump at the UN today, I mean talking about annihilation of a civilization and sovereign nation, I do think that I speak on behalf 9f everyone that, Iranians can go ahead to build multiple nuclear warheads. I considered those words embarrassing and this is simply on every Donald Trump staunch supporter who voted him for three good times. Imagine inciting such violence in the United Nations today. What message has he passed on to the rest of the world?!

That the United States Government has no respect for human rights, diplomacy and also international law. I ask again, why was the United Nations created in the first place? Should it be for a moronic pedophile to spread hate and violence? I think he is a representation of everything the Washington Empire has been in the past. Those words are worrying and concerning.

Has he forgotten he deliberately ordered the strike of those innocent school children in iran?! Or that they deliberately killed the Supreme leader of iran? Something has got to be done about Donald Trump with immediate effect.

[Fortify]

Even if the oil price drops now. It will take time for businesses to actually get back in line again. Just imagine during this crisis, companies have ran into debt; collecting loans here and there just to meet up, production capacity drops just because of the price of the global oil. Things are bought expensive. Sure, it will take a long time before this settles down. And from the looks of things, it's not happening anything soon.

The price will ultimately decrease, but as you pointed out, the issue is that things won't simply get cheaper, and the price is starting to become an issue since how many people can truly afford the rate fuel prices are rising? Fuel is one of the factors because they will undoubtedly carry goods, and you will often question what has put us in this predicament.  And the US is claiming to bring peace, and we have not seen any changes. Everyone is already tired because the politicians have fucked everything up, and it's easy to destroy but difficult to fix we deserve better.

Right now it seems to only be increasing and until all these wars stop there doesn't seem to be any change to that coming soon. The latest news today is that Trump is trying to stop diesel exports from the US, one of the few remaining major oil producers who are not in any particular danger compared to say Russia or Saudi Arabia. So after starting this disastrous war against Iran, Trump has abandoned an open economy due to his own incompetence and will add another break down in global trade - pushing up prices for every single country including America. He literally takes all the worst steps possible and is possibly the worst person at business ever to reach such a high office. We've yet to really see inflation from this latest fuckup filter into the prices of other goods and services, but it is coming like a wave we cannot avoid.

[Compromise me]

I'm in agreement oil prices may not spike right back up immediately after the war. But I believe recovery will be more than just fixing up some infrastructure. Oil is a global commodity. So outside the conflict zone producers can step up production and governments can also tap into their strategic reserves if there is a shortage. Demand also plays a part. As an increase in price could lead to less demand. And also inspire businesses to seek out substitutes. This not only allows time for the physical damage to be fixed. But it also allows the market time to adjust. My guess is that in my opinion the bigger question is when will the disruption in transportation and supply routes end. A short war will result in a price shock. And longer disruptions could alter trade routes and supply contracts for much longer. The post war oil market then, may not be back to normal  it may be different.

I don't think so, prices will reverse on it's original level, as the world is moving towards complexity day by day. First we heard the war of US and Iran but now it is spreading towards other oil producing countries. Or world are expecting much more than this besides the cutting of oil supply. Other major problems are arising and world has risk of other important commodities.

As oil is basic needs, so it is important to pay serious attention on the price control. May be in the  next few months oil become superior commodity, or slowly and gradually it could create serious crises, because may be every country try to secure the reserve of oil to run the economy.It would be very scary situation, because it can affect every part of the economy. One thing is very clear that conflict between Iran nd US not easily be solved.

[trendcoin]

No one knows for how long this war can go on. It can be weeks or months. But a lot of people seem to think that once the war ends, everything will go back to normal. That is not the case. Oil prices are going up now and for every day that companies struggle to operate, the closer they are to bankruptcy. Maybe the big companies would be fine but even them are struggling. To expect that once the war ends, everything will go back to how it was before would be foolish. It will take a while for everything to go down low, if things were to bounce back to what we used to consider normal.

Trump has acted so erratically regarding Iran that I can no longer understand what he’s trying to do. And the interesting thing is that I haven’t seen anyone else who can make sense of what he’s trying to do either. It now seems that this situation has spiraled out of Trump’s control. He’ll be facing an election soon and will likely emerge from it as a lame duck.

Trump took action to overthrow the regime in Iran. Because of the war he started today, the Iranian people are showing even greater support for the regime despite all the hardships they’re facing, and the soaring inflation caused by rising oil prices will spell the end for Trump.

Yes, oil prices will remain high for a while longer, and the person who will pay the highest price for this will be Trump.