Can data models really beat sportsbook odds?

[Hispo]

If they could make money on their own, they would not need to advertise themselves and find clients. Don't you think?

There was a topic posted here before by one of the members, and I actually believed what he said.

The point of that post was that there really are people who sell subscriptions and give winning tips, but it’s not cheap at all. So what we’re seeing now, especially those selling in Telegram or random groups, are probably just scams. Most of them just show fake records to attract desperate sports bettors.

That’s why in this kind of space, if it’s cheap, you really have to doubt it. Same goes when choosing a tipster.

Ideally, when comes to choosing a tipster, I would only pay attention to those who have proven not to care about money anymore due to the high rate of success the have, so they give their tips for free, for whoever wanted to pick them up and make some money.
It does not make any sense to pay for tips, specially when it is so easily to scam people for alleged privileged information these days.

Also, I could even argue that relying one's choice upon one's money to others is kind of irresponsible and is not something a mature gambler would do, but that depends whom you ask, I think.

[Dave1]

If you’ve been betting for a while and looking for ways to win, you’ve probably come across all these data models claiming they can find value and help bettors make profit because of how their system works.

What they usually mean by “finding value” is that the sportsbook line is either overpriced or underpriced. For example, maybe an injury happens and the sportsbook hasn’t fully adjusted yet, but the model spots it early and shows there’s still value in that line.

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

I would still say that sportbooks odds will stay like that, not that it can be beaten, but we all know that major companies has also a lot of data models in calculating the odds and releasing it to casinos.

I'm not sure what you mean by under or overprice, those odds are calculated as I have said and those releases this odds have crunched the data that there is still no guarantee who will win. So it's really up to us, bettors, even if we have our own models to see what will be the best bet.

[TedMosby]

Your post reminds me of this post on X:
https://x.com/0x_Discover/status/2040724120472596617.

TLDR, he is predicting weather on the Polymarket prediction market. He uses data from aviation weather data, updated every 1–3 hours. He find mismatches between aviation weather data and data on Polymarket. Aviation data often updates hours before public forecasts.

[SamReomo]

Definitely, because it is their business that will be in jeopardy in case this can really give good results to bettors. I don't think they will just sit down and let the potential threat wiped out their vault. But for now, we don't know the capability of these models.

Such models might exist but I'm thinking why the ones who've created such models aren't using it for themselves? They could make literally in $Millions if they keep those models secret and to themselves and only place bets after a few days intervals to be on safe end. I guess they know that such models don't work well and that might be the reason why they might be selling subscriptions or something like that to loot money from the ones with cheating mindset.

[yahoo62278]

If you’ve been betting for a while and looking for ways to win, you’ve probably come across all these data models claiming they can find value and help bettors make profit because of how their system works.

What they usually mean by “finding value” is that the sportsbook line is either overpriced or underpriced. For example, maybe an injury happens and the sportsbook hasn’t fully adjusted yet, but the model spots it early and shows there’s still value in that line.

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

It's an illusion for the gullible. Some scammers are trying to find idiots who might believe them and take advantage and make a quick buck. All the info these people selling these models have is public and anyone can figure it out IMO. Sites aren't retarded either, they got all the data as well and TBH probably more.

[m4r1o]

Ideally, when comes to choosing a tipster, I would only pay attention to those who have proven not to care about money anymore due to the high rate of success the have, so they give their tips for free, for whoever wanted to pick them up and make some money.
It does not make any sense to pay for tips, specially when it is so easily to scam people for alleged privileged information these days.

Also, I could even argue that relying one's choice upon one's money to others is kind of irresponsible and is not something a mature gambler would do, but that depends whom you ask, I think.

I don't think it's right for someone to rely on a figure like that, there must be honesty in this field too otherwise it's a complete scam, i understand that people would do anything to win, even swap their mothers but it's not a wise thing to do, in fact i find it deplorable and senseless

[suzanne5223]

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

Yes, data models can be helpful to bettors when it comes to making profitable sports betting decisions and i believe it can also help sometimes to beat the sportsbook odds but one things is certain no matter the concept or strategy used to beat a gambling platform it wont be profitable if use for the long term due to the constant change everything gambling platform model of operation.

[|MINER|]

..............................
But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

I will say that such data models will definitely help a sports bettor analyze before placing a bet on a sport, that is correct, but when it comes to whether it will make a person or a gambler profitable, I will not say.
Because we cannot change the future by using any specific strategy or tools, what will happen in the future or what is written in our destiny is completely beyond our control. So while analysis can help in this case, this type of data model will never guarantee that we will be profitable.

[Wakate]

Ideally, when comes to choosing a tipster, I would only pay attention to those who have proven not to care about money anymore due to the high rate of success the have, so they give their tips for free, for whoever wanted to pick them up and make some money.
It does not make any sense to pay for tips, specially when it is so easily to scam people for alleged privileged information these days.

Also, I could even argue that relying one's choice upon one's money to others is kind of irresponsible and is not something a mature gambler would do, but that depends whom you ask, I think.

I don't think it's right for someone to rely on a figure like that, there must be honesty in this field too otherwise it's a complete scam, i understand that people would do anything to win, even swap their mothers but it's not a wise thing to do, in fact i find it deplorable and senseless

People that are very desperate are the ones that will be doing anything to make sure that they make money from gambling through any means that see. Using models to gamble is not a true way to make money because their is no way making money through this means. I will rather use my initiative to gamble rather using models that are less reliable.

[Hispo]

Ideally, when comes to choosing a tipster, I would only pay attention to those who have proven not to care about money anymore due to the high rate of success the have, so they give their tips for free, for whoever wanted to pick them up and make some money.
It does not make any sense to pay for tips, specially when it is so easily to scam people for alleged privileged information these days.

Also, I could even argue that relying one's choice upon one's money to others is kind of irresponsible and is not something a mature gambler would do, but that depends whom you ask, I think.

I don't think it's right for someone to rely on a figure like that, there must be honesty in this field too otherwise it's a complete scam, i understand that people would do anything to win, even swap their mothers but it's not a wise thing to do, in fact i find it deplorable and senseless

I can agree with that, one should take only one's analysis and conclusions to bet in sports or any market which is available on the internet. But let us face reality, there are people out there who are sooooo desperate for money and getting it from betting, they would exchange their morals and their integrity for the sake of becoming successful professional bettors, the kind of bettor who makes thousands of dollars in a single afternoon, from the comfort on home.

That kind of desperation is what keep bettors from realizing the truth about tipsters and the grey market of privileged information, of information is so valuable and have the potential to make people rich, such information won't be offered for peanuts to strangers on the internet.

[EarnOnVictor]

What they usually mean by “finding value” is that the sportsbook line is either overpriced or underpriced. For example, maybe an injury happens and the sportsbook hasn’t fully adjusted yet, but the model spots it early and shows there’s still value in that line.
But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

No serious bettor would rely on such models anymore, as their time has passed and sportsbook are now wiser. Sportsbooks now rely on polished versions of automated algorithms that scan even faster all possible channels/outlets, which makes it more difficult for the models outsmart. I'm not saying it can't be profitable 100%, with consistency and advanced upgrades, yes, but it can still only provide a slight edge, which is very tight. There are many liars out there that are only interested in people's money, so beware. The consideration of vigorish is another factor, as it eats the potential gains slowly.

[aylabadia05]

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

Not many are able to beat the bookies in sportsbook betting.
The data model in question can make things easier for bettors, but it doesn't guarantee a win every time they place a bet.
Normally, if a bettor only makes a single bet and analyzes the data accurately from various angles, the odds of a win are high, but again, it doesn't guarantee long-term wins.
I've noticed that some famous people who bet large sums of money often lose thousands of dollars.

[o48o]

If you’ve been betting for a while and looking for ways to win, you’ve probably come across all these data models claiming they can find value and help bettors make profit because of how their system works.

What they usually mean by “finding value” is that the sportsbook line is either overpriced or underpriced. For example, maybe an injury happens and the sportsbook hasn’t fully adjusted yet, but the model spots it early and shows there’s still value in that line.

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

Why do you think that data models that are accessible to you would beat the data that bookmakers would use to analyze their matches? I mean they have way more funding to ensure that they have an edge. If not by guessing who wins, then at least giving crappy enough odds for the alternative.

I am pretty sure that if anyone has found any way to beat the sport books, they wouldn't tell anyone about that infinite money making machine. Unless it wouldn't work and they are in desperate need of money, so they would lie about it.

[Fiatless]

I will say that such data models will definitely help a sports bettor analyze before placing a bet on a sport, that is correct, but when it comes to whether it will make a person or a gambler profitable, I will not say.
Because we cannot change the future by using any specific strategy or tools, what will happen in the future or what is written in our destiny is completely beyond our control. So while analysis can help in this case, this type of data model will never guarantee that we will be profitable.

Do we need all these data models when AI tools could actually carry out the same tasks? Some gamblers might claim that they have benefited from some of these data models, but I don't think they will bring consistent wins. The level of advertisement these data model providers engage in makes me doubt whether they are potent.

People who have discovered such a strategy should have been making a lot of money from gambling. Rather, they are channeling more effort on advertising their services.     

[yhiaali3]

These things might have been available in the past, but I think things have changed now. From years ago websites were slow to adjust lines, and changes in conditions took time to appear in Odds. Simple models could easily capture "Value".

Today, websites use fast and high-tech methods that monitor every movement, and bots modify Odds within seconds, which means that easy opportunities have almost disappeared and these models are unable to give good results.

[serjent05]

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

Yes, data models can be helpful to bettors when it comes to making profitable sports betting decisions and i believe it can also help sometimes to beat the sportsbook odds but one things is certain no matter the concept or strategy used to beat a gambling platform it wont be profitable if use for the long term due to the constant change everything gambling platform model of operation.

Data is always helpful especially when it includes performance, it can help us give a hint of possibilities that may happen in future matches, but it can never tell the outcome.  All it can give is the possibilities of results, and possibilities are always more than one and we have to choose only one of those in sports betting, making our action not a sure win but only giving a higher possibility of winnings.

As for beating the sports book, I think it is free to dream, so it is ok and won't hurt if we realize that it is not gonna happen.

[OgNasty]

I think it is possible for data models to improve performance, but beating the sportsbook long term seems like a foolish endeavor to partake on. The odds are the odds and anything can happen, but over time no matter what method you use, the house always wins.

[suzanne5223]

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

Yes, data models can be helpful to bettors when it comes to making profitable sports betting decisions and i believe it can also help sometimes to beat the sportsbook odds but one things is certain no matter the concept or strategy used to beat a gambling platform it wont be profitable if use for the long term due to the constant change everything gambling platform model of operation.

Data is always helpful especially when it includes performance, it can help us give a hint of possibilities that may happen in future matches, but it can never tell the outcome.  All it can give is the possibilities of results, and possibilities are always more than one and we have to choose only one of those in sports betting, making our action not a sure win but only giving a higher possibility of winnings.

As for beating the sports book, I think it is free to dream, so it is ok and won't hurt if we realize that it is not gonna happen.

The reason why i consider a data model as something that could help in beating the sportsbook odds is because of how it helps to strengthen gamblers predictions, and boost confidence in the possible result of the game, and when there's a means to backtest our prediction with confidence, it is easy to see things more clearly, so the chance of winning will increase.

[Odogwu-Blockchain]

Never try to use any model to beat the system, it can at least make bettors create the possibility of getting better results than winning all over the system so easily. That isn't possible at all.

The house still has more advantage over any model that may be created, model uses the technique of making gamblers choose their predictions on a probability note.