An experiment: is BTC halving cycle effect on prices valid in 2026-2027 ?

[JaanusRaim]

As following I make a little experiment about the fifth halving cycle effect on BTC prices.

We know the nine previous time series on halving cycle highs and lows: 26, 2, 1132, 165, 19345, 3233, 67549, 15760, 124749 (USD/BTC). Taking into account the regularities of these past nine data points, the tenth data point (the BTC price lowest level during the fifth halving cycle) will be ca 30000-40000.

I consider the BTC halving cycle effect on prices valid if I am able to remarkably (at least by 20%) increase my initial bet (0.01 BTC). I sold my 0.01 BTC today for 814.40 USD and plan to buy it back near the cycle low.

The experiment begins on May 10, 2026 and will end on December 31, 2027.


I         26         2
II     1132     165
III  19345    3233
IV  67549   15760
V  124749  30000-40000

[Free Market Capitalist]

We know the nine previous time series on halving cycle highs and lows: 26, 2, 1132, 165, 19345, 3233, 67549, 15760, 124749 (USD/BTC). Taking into account the regularities of these past nine data points, the tenth data point (the BTC price lowest level during the fifth halving cycle) will be ca 30000-40000.

The problem with that line of reasoning is that projecting the future based on supposed patterns from the past works—until it stops working. That’s generally true, but we’ve seen it happen countless times with Bitcoin’s price. The world does not function as a series of mathematical events isolated from it. And even a series of isolated mathematical events can be extended in an infinite number of ways that are consistent with the past.

[Nathrixxx]

You can't predict the exact pattern at which bitcoin is going to take in making all time high when it comes to next season bullrun, just the same way we couldn't predict on the last one as we have it even before the halving event take place, next season could be during or after halving, this is why we have to be in the right position with bitcoin investment and also decided to stay close to making profit irrespective of the pattern it's taking by then.

[LordShanken]

As following I make a little experiment about the fifth halving cycle effect on BTC prices.

We know the nine previous time series on halving cycle highs and lows: 26, 2, 1132, 165, 19345, 3233, 67549, 15760, 124749 (USD/BTC). Taking into account the regularities of these past nine data points, the tenth data point (the BTC price lowest level during the fifth halving cycle) will be ca 30000-40000.

I consider the BTC halving cycle effect on prices valid if I am able to remarkably (at least by 20%) increase my initial bet (0.01 BTC). I sold my 0.01 BTC today for 814.40 USD and plan to buy it back near the cycle low.

The experiment begins on May 10, 2026 and will end on December 31, 2027.

Four-year cycles – the very name – actually come from the four-year halving periods. It's just that no one remembers about it anymore. Now everyone thinks they're some magical four-year trading cycles.

The larger the halving, the more it impacted the price. When the block reward decreased from 50 BTC to 25 BTC, it was a big jump. The same thing happened with the halving from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. With subsequent halvings, the impact on the price was smaller, but then the cryptocurrencies themselves began to become more popular, and hence the bull markets were bigger, but not directly from the four-year halvings themselves.

At this point, the halving has almost no impact on the price, so we can completely forget about four-year cycles.
The cryptocurrency market is becoming increasingly aligned with traditional markets, and this will continue as financial institutions create new instruments based on cryptocurrencies and with further regulations introduced by governments.

I'm sorry, but your experiment won't work. Unless someone tries to force themselves to find similarities.

Anyway, if you want to play along, go ahead - it's your time. 

[adultcrypto]

As much as we would want to deny it, the BTC halving cycle is still a little in play because bitcoin made ATH high in a the next year after halving year just like it did during the 2016 and 2020 halvings.  Secondly, the year following the ATH saw bitcoin enter into major correction and we have also seen same to be the case now, so it will be technically wrong to assume that we have completely shifted frkm the prevalent cycle, although a lot of things changed in the past halving. Notable among them is the fact that price created a new ATH before the halving because of the approval of the ETF. Until something significant change such as price creating a new ATH from now to 2028, I will still maintain that the halving is still a major determinant.

[JaanusRaim]

As following I make a little experiment about the fifth halving cycle effect on BTC prices.

We know the nine previous time series on halving cycle highs and lows: 26, 2, 1132, 165, 19345, 3233, 67549, 15760, 124749 (USD/BTC). Taking into account the regularities of these past nine data points, the tenth data point (the BTC price lowest level during the fifth halving cycle) will be ca 30000-40000.

I consider the BTC halving cycle effect on prices valid if I am able to remarkably (at least by 20%) increase my initial bet (0.01 BTC). I sold my 0.01 BTC today for 814.40 USD and plan to buy it back near the cycle low.

The experiment begins on May 10, 2026 and will end on December 31, 2027.

Four-year cycles – the very name – actually come from the four-year halving periods. It's just that no one remembers about it anymore. Now everyone thinks they're some magical four-year trading cycles.

The larger the halving, the more it impacted the price. When the block reward decreased from 50 BTC to 25 BTC, it was a big jump. The same thing happened with the halving from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. With subsequent halvings, the impact on the price was smaller, but then the cryptocurrencies themselves began to become more popular, and hence the bull markets were bigger, but not directly from the four-year halvings themselves.

At this point, the halving has almost no impact on the price, so we can completely forget about four-year cycles.
The cryptocurrency market is becoming increasingly aligned with traditional markets, and this will continue as financial institutions create new instruments based on cryptocurrencies and with further regulations introduced by governments.

I'm sorry, but your experiment won't work. Unless someone tries to force themselves to find similarities.

Anyway, if you want to play along, go ahead - it's your time. 

I am more than agree with you (or is better to say 135% agree with you).
I have to admit that even after the first halving there were economically no reason for waiting the price increases because the halving is perfectly predictable event and therefore has to be fully taken account before it happens. The halving cycles effect on BTC price is (and has always been) not possible in accordance with economic science.

But I have to admit as well that there is some rhyme in the last nine BTC price highs/lows and that the probability that this rhyme is pure coincidence is small.

Therefore I am curious to test it myself.

[GreatArkansas]

There's another famous platform for this, it's called "Bitcoin Obituaries."
https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/


Right now, it's already "Bitcoin has died 477 times".
The recent was last August 2025.

[JaanusRaim]

There's another famous platform for this, it's called "Bitcoin Obituaries."
https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/


Right now, it's already "Bitcoin has died 477 times".
The recent was last August 2025.

The best of 477 was: https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/wired-tired-expired-for-2012-expired-bitcoin/

What a weird coincidence - BTC never died during the period from November 23, 2011 to December 24, 2012 but six times earlier in 2011

[LordShanken]

~~~

I am more than agree with you (or is better to say 135% agree with you).
I have to admit that even after the first halving there were economically no reason for waiting the price increases because the halving is perfectly predictable event and therefore has to be fully taken account before it happens. The halving cycles effect on BTC price is (and has always been) not possible in accordance with economic science.

But I have to admit as well that there is some rhyme in the last nine BTC price highs/lows and that the probability that this rhyme is pure coincidence is small.

Therefore I am curious to test it myself.

There may be some subtle movements. But they could be a result of what people have become accustomed to, and now they're just consciously trying to catch on. (I'm talking about cycles)
This would explain the validity of technical analysis, i.e., psychological repeatability. (if we can call it like that)
But even if you notice something, I don't think it's worth trading on it.
There are too many things happening right now that will disrupt this rhythm, not to mention Trump's circus tricks.

If you're curious, go ahead. In fact, I'm also curious if you notice anything.

[EluguHcman]

As much as we would want to deny it, the BTC halving cycle is still a little in play because bitcoin made ATH high in a the next year after halving year just like it did during the 2016 and 2020 halvings.  Secondly, the year following the ATH saw bitcoin enter into major correction and we have also seen same to be the case now, so it will be technically wrong to assume that we have completely shifted frkm the prevalent cycle, although a lot of things changed in the past halving. Notable among them is the fact that price created a new ATH before the halving because of the approval of the ETF. Until something significant change such as price creating a new ATH from now to 2028, I will still maintain that the halving is still a major determinant.

This argument of the Bitcoin halving being a traditional event for the Bitcoin market is what we can only justify by the market performances following the 4 four years Speculation that the halving sticks to.

Most analysts who had always thought that they can predict the market movements of Bitcoin had felt disappointed after much they failed to catch the price at their spots and then feels their is a change in the market that is why the market price is not going according to their own Speculations.

The truth is that whether they likes it or not, the 4 years cycle had remained the same so far and that is how the halving had been repetitive.
We don't also expect the market events to reacts same way same time like the previous rather, they are following same behavior.

[STT]

It matters because people think it matters but clearly influences change over time including the dynamic of the trends in play themselves.   BTC is not the same exact thing it was ten years ago and in crypto ten years is probably an eon for the rate of change it experiences.

   I just rate the price action as your indication, then you have this very noisy interference from the dollar and economic swings like the energy crisis many countries are feeling.  Any country which cant tap resources of energy themselves is experiencing this and that influence matters more to their currency strength and even crypto utility within their economy and population.   I see priorities changing and it was probably deliberate that the block reward is not quite so important, it was an ignition not all the long term guidance.
   200 week moving average is rising, that's where I place the effect in price matters for a base line.

[aoluain]

I think the OP is on to something though - or is it that they are just stating the obvious in that
yes the Bitcoin cycle will (and is) continue along the same 4 year time frame.

I think yes there will be a drop back from where the market is at currently c. $77k but as nearly
everyone has said above its risky business to forecast a price range and a time frame.

[shinratensei_]

The pattern has been pretty consistent but personally I have conviction that history don't repeat itself but rhyme. This time around we could be getting diminished cycle's bottom because there was black swan event happened to crypto market in previous cycle that causes the price to be down so much, this time around there is none.

If nothing of that significance happen in this cycle, this cycle low won't be as low as you mentioned.
One thing that I consider to be the biggest main factor why the cycle keep rhyming is because self fulfilling prophecy, what if the market form the same exact pattern because it believe it will form that exact pattern in the first place?

[JaanusRaim]

June 1, 2026. BTC was 73596.50.
My investment return was 10.66% ((814.40/735.97)-1).
30000-40000 was still far....

[Stalker22]

June 1, 2026. BTC was 73596.50.
My investment return was 10.66% ((814.40/735.97)-1).
30000-40000 was still far....

So you are trying to time the market, right?  Well, good luck with that!

By the way, when you say: "My investment return was 10.66%" it implies that you already bought back that 0.01 BTC.  Did you do that?

[JaanusRaim]

June 1, 2026. BTC was 73596.50.
My investment return was 10.66% ((814.40/735.97)-1).
30000-40000 was still far....

So you are trying to time the market, right?  Well, good luck with that!

By the way, when you say: "My investment return was 10.66%" it implies that you already bought back that 0.01 BTC.  Did you do that?

No. This is only "on the paper".
I will buy it back not sooner than 30000-40000.

[dansus021]

As of today, the market is moving entirely in your favor. We just witnessed a massive flush down to $69,660. However, your long-term target of $30,000 to $40,000 by 2027 is where the real experiment begins. and I personally don think that bitcoin gonna reach 30K nor 40K in 2027, in my opinion the real bottom is still above 40K tho is pure speculation. For BTC to drop into the $30k range, it wouldn't just be a standard cyclical correction, it would mean completely breaking the historical Realized Price guardrail for the first time in a post-halving era.

[michellee]

You predict this could be down to $30,000-$40,000? Interesting because I wonder how many people will get out of Bitcoin. They may lose much money and sell at a low which will not give them the profit they want but what if the price is not down to that price?
Would you not buy it as no one knows if it will actually hit that price? But we will see it later and meanwhile, the price still going down and maybe we will see a lower price soon.

[JaanusRaim]

The present dip is not enough to make me greedy   

The extraordinarily strong stock market supports crypto prices at the moment - the prices just can not fall to the really interesting area because the economy as a whole is still in a good shape. But when this bubble bursts and major stock indexes start to fall remarkably, then I wait even smaller numbers than 30000-40000....

But experiment is experiment - as I promised to buy my 0.01 BTC back in this prise range, then I do.

Do not buy a dip - buy strong undervaluation!

[el kaka22]

You really do not need to know much about bitcoin to know when to sell and when to buy based on historical pattern. You buy one year after ATH price is reached (in this case, October 2026) and then you sell at October of following year of halving (this means 2029 October or 2029 April depending on how it goes) and you are going to profit.

Buy at those times every single 4 year pattern, and sell at those times, and you will get at the bottom and sell at the top. Calculate this based on previous years, and you will see the biggest profits too.