A bettor loses $55k on "Guaranteed" Bet on Jannik Sinner in the French Open

[yhiaali3]

This is a truly insane gamble. risking $55,000 for a potential $1,000 win is sheer madness!! it means you have put yourself in the worst possible risk equation. Odds 1.01 mean that any small mistake or injury or heatstroke or momentary physical collapse (like what happened to Sinner ) would be enough to lose all your entire capital.

He should have avoided low odds or at least used hedging when Cerundolo's odds reached 800–1000 or exited early at the first sign of fatigue. What he did was an ill-advised gamble.

It's not madness, at least not in a gambler's mind. Extremely low odds like 1.01 are considered "safe" by almost all sports bettors.
Would you put 1000 dollars, if you knew that you are guaranteed to win 100 dollars? Probably yes. And what about 50K dollars?
It's like betting big amounts of crypto to 1.01x on a crash game at the crypto casino and losing everything. Shit happens...
The guy, who lost this 55K bet is probably rich enough to afford such loss. Yes, this is a "black swan" event. Nothing is guaranteed in life. Odds like 1.01 means that it was highly unlikely for Sinner to lose the game, but he did lose the game. I was never really a fan of Jannik Sinner, maybe the forbidden stimulants he's using have had a bad side effect on him.

This is a relative perspective, everyone sees things from their own point of view. What I consider crazy someone else might see as perfectly normal. Perhaps you're right; maybe that person views $55,000 the way I view $1,000.

However, I still see it as madness and recklessness because the expected amount of profit is only $1000 and therefore this person is most likely not rich because a rich person does not care about earning $1000.

[Oshio-man]

 Things like this will surely come up to some gamblers, but some will lose the opportunity while some gamblers will use the opportunity to make some funds that will make them not to lock funds to gamble, looking at the amount of funds he or she use to gamble to loss huge amount of funds, I don't think the gambler is a newbie because newbies who don't have the knowledge will not use that amount of funds to gamble than to start with small amounts of funds he or she will be comfortable to lose without regret.

[Zadicar]

It is already 2026 and we're gamblers. We know that there's no "guaranteed" bet in this world.
All we get is odds, chances and risks. With all of that, none can secure a guaranteed bet.
But I'm admiring his courage and bravery for doing that. I may not have that much to bet for such believed guy but I'll never take that so much risk even if I am a fanatic of an athlete or whoever or a team.

Simply make use of your common sense then you would definitely be able to realize these things on the first place that there's no such thing about sure bet even if we do speak about strategic games like betting on sports or even with poker or similar on which there's no assurance that having that sure win. This is why you shouldnt really be having those expectations specially into those people who are making up some sure bets and putting up that big bets just because they do believe that it is really that giving that guaranteed win. Now losing out $55k just because of that guaranteed bet on which it is that a total BS. This what makes sports betting that unpredictable and if it was that predictable or having that known results then tons of predictors that would follow that will really be that become rich but we know that this is somethig impossible.

[AHOYBRAUSE]

So this guy bet $55k on Sinner to win $1000

https://brobible.com/sports/article/bettor-loses-55k-jannik-sinner-french-open/
https://x.com/FoaznPoker/status/2059810152048468228

Sinner won 2-0 in the first 2 sets, needs one more set to win.
He goes 5-1 in the third set, at that time according to some reports the odds on Cerundolo were 800-900 in the betting exchange BetFair (maybe even 1000 at 1 peak point, hard to check it going back)....

He lost the set, and the match!

The odds on Cerundolo were 1.57 beginning of 5th set, if you were able to "read" what's happening - it might be hard to bet against the world no. 1 but he just couldn't cope with the heat in Paris.

Prematch odds were 1.01 on Sinner vs 26.00 on Cerundolo on Bet365. Exchange had even more generous odds than that.

This is a black swan event, literally.

What do you guys think about it?

I'm pretty sure odds were maxed out at 1000:1 , not just 800-900. I remember a match in 2009, Federer vs Tsonga on hard court. I backed Fedex after losing the first set, odds at 1.6 or so.
He then proceeded to kill Tsonga, leading the final set 5:1 and the odds have been 1000:1. I didn't want to cash out due to greed, 0.5$ could have brought me breakeven to have no loss. Yet even those 50 cent was just a waste, then I lost everything since it went into tiebreak and Tsonga won.

Everything is always possible at tennis, as any given moment.

Anyway, Sinner losing was WAY more unlikely than Tsonga coming back from a 1:5.

[Wind_FURY]

There was a time I came across a bet slip that was posted online, where a bettor placed $2000 on a match with 1.10 odds, which he lost, and I thought that was the craziest bet I had ever seen. However, reading about this user's case, I don't even know what to say. Risking $55k in a quest to win $1000, is absolutely madness. I just hope the amount he lost is what he can afford to lose, and even at that, I want to believe the loss will hunt him for a long time.

Madness? - Probably.

 

But do your research about Long Term Capital Management and how a group of VERY smart people, Nobel Prize winners in fact, and how they devised a "trading strategy" that was supposed to be "safe" and "very low risk". They needed to very high leverage for the strategy, of course, AND read about how one mere Black Swan killed their hedge fund.

   ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

I don't think the gambler is a newbie because newbies who don't have the knowledge will not use that amount of funds to gamble than to start with small amounts of funds he or she will be comfortable to lose without regret.

People are rich bro,  there are some rich dude who are actually newbies but due to favoritism, they will bet on their favorite contestant without doing any valid analysis, that's how some rich newbies end up losing such a huge amount. If the guy was also an experienced gambler, he must have placed the bet because he believes it was a very sure game. This is just a proof that there's no sure game anywhere, you can still lose your bet no matter how sure you feel the game is.

[Wakate]

I don't think the gambler is a newbie because newbies who don't have the knowledge will not use that amount of funds to gamble than to start with small amounts of funds he or she will be comfortable to lose without regret.

People are rich bro,  there are some rich dude who are actually newbies but due to favoritism, they will bet on their favorite contestant without doing any valid analysis, that's how some rich newbies end up losing such a huge amount. If the guy was also an experienced gambler, he must have placed the bet because he believes it was a very sure game. This is just a proof that there's no sure game anywhere, you can still lose your bet no matter how sure you feel the game is.

There are people that are very rich and money is never there problem so losing up to 50k more will not be there problem.
Gambling is not only based on your luck but also your skill for you to win as you endeavor to earn profits.
Some newbies don't like to do analysis and all they always think about is luck that will make them win money from betting.

[Satofan44]

This is a black swan event, literally.

What do you guys think about it?

Don't play stupid games and you won't win stupid prizes. This is a classic example of an idiot who does not know anything about gambling at all, despite what he or she may think. Gambling is not only about odds, it is about risk/reward. Risking $55k for a potential chance to win $1000 is as stupid as it gets. It is the exact inverse of gambling in shitcoins, where people gamble $1000 hoping to get $100k or $1m if they hit a lucky shitcoin early, as we have seen in past cycles. The funny thing is that more people are criticizing the people that are doing this with shitcoins that the people that are doing this with gambling, even if the case of the gambling is objectively worse. Risk is not only about odds, it is about the quantity of money that you are risking at particular odds in relation to the price -- which in this case was just terrible. Many people who are able to afford such bets are complete idiots.

It's not madness, at least not in a gambler's mind. Extremely low odds like 1.01 are considered "safe" by almost all sports bettors.

If someone considers this "safe" they are a brain deranged retard, so yes this is absolutely madness. A fair number people do not have any kind of education or basic thinking skills, no matter the amount of worthless papers that they get from schools and universities.

[fredericktaylor]

Things like this will surely come up to some gamblers, but some will lose the opportunity while some gamblers will use the opportunity to make some funds that will make them not to lock funds to gamble, looking at the amount of funds he or she use to gamble to loss huge amount of funds, I don't think the gambler is a newbie because newbies who don't have the knowledge will not use that amount of funds to gamble than to start with small amounts of funds he or she will be comfortable to lose without regret.

In reality, it is good to have confidence to win through gambling but it is absolutely not right to be overconfident. I think the man was overconfident about winning, his idea will be right and in the end he will be able to win all the money. But it is never right to be overconfident while gambling. We have to remember that there is nothing certain in gambling. The result can change at any time, so it is better to gamble within your means. It is absolutely not right to gamble with excessive risk in the hope of winning more money, as a result of which you will have to face loss of all your money at the end of the day.

[DiMarxist]

At what point in time did this guy who lost the $55k on betting on sinner got to the point of knowing that there is actually something called guaranteed bet. Such thing don't actually exist when it comes to live sports betting, when it comes to sport betting you can only talk about the probability ratio of a team or person winning. Whether the probability ratio is high or low for a team or individual to win in the case of individual sport like tennis you should know that there are chances of the unthinkable happening and that is what actually played out in this game, when the favorite lost this type of results actually happens in sports betting once in a while and this was actually one of such times.