Sticking with the Favorites : World Cup edition

[stompix]

Easiest update ever, love when you just don't have to add a thing, deduct straight losses 

16 games
6 wins, 10 losses!
Total wagered 16
Total loss -4.01

We're so deep in red we need all of the favorites to win in the next 6 games and it won't be enough, we need Ghana to beat Panama at 2.30 to turn back in green

Well well well... Your strategy is better than the others so far (although the distance is too small to draw conclusions),

You were saying....

Are this going to be seperate bets or you will be combining the bets into one ticket as a parley?

Single bets, parlays would be a nightmare and there wasn't a single winning one to date if we go by matchday.
If one happens, I will probably make stats for that also, but I assume the wins would be small, tonight's games are barely 4x for example, betting on draws for last day would have earned you 800x

In competitions like this, it's not very profitable to only bet on favorites, especially in the first round when surprises are always possible. Who would say that Spain will not succeed in winning over the Cape Verde, or that Belgium is not a stronger opponent than Egypt?

But there was always the possibility of those surprises not happening, right?
If I have enough time, I will do this for the 2022 event for comparison.

[rdluffy]

In competitions like this, it's not very profitable to only bet on favorites, especially in the first round when surprises are always possible. Who would say that Spain will not succeed in winning over the Cape Verde, or that Belgium is not a stronger opponent than Egypt?

Those who earn extra profit these days are definitely bookies - and I'm really curious about that guy who bet $750k on the victory of Germany against Curacao - was he tempted to do the same with Spain?

In just this first round, there have already been several almost unbelievable surprises for me

I was surprised by the favorites:
Switzerland drawing with Qatar
Spain obviously drawing with Cape Verde
Scotland only managing a 1-0 win against Haiti
Belgium only drawing against Egypt (even though Belgium is always considered a contender to be the next world champion)

Now it's Congo's chance to surprise Portugal and Uzbekistan to at least manage a draw against Colombia hehehe

Not easy to bet, I lost a lot of bets 

[Bright0515]

That's not a bad strategy but it's not the wisest to use because you cannot always expect the favorites to win even if the odds indicates that they are the ones that has more advantage but the outcome doesn't always seem to go as planned. If you intend to proceed with this strategy you must know that you are going to incur losses at some point, this is the reason why you must withdraw your profits and also stake an amount of money that you can afford to lose, you cannot always predict the world cup games accurately.

[salad daging]

Easiest update ever, love when you just don't have to add a thing, deduct straight losses 

16 games
6 wins, 10 losses!
Total wagered 16
Total loss -4.01

We're so deep in red we need all of the favorites to win in the next 6 games and it won't be enough, we need Ghana to beat Panama at 2.30 to turn back in green

Well, this is a bit different from your betting strategy, where during the World Cup you will continue to choose the favorite team to bet on, surprisingly many favorite teams do not win, so you now have red data.

I hope that the picture shown will win as you expect, because looking at the odds, the favorite team should win easily but the reality is not so, there is always a favorite team that cannot win.

I am not brave enough to do this strategy, let alone a total of 104 matches then I will not be able to.

[Lucius]

In competitions like this, it's not very profitable to only bet on favorites, especially in the first round when surprises are always possible. Who would say that Spain will not succeed in winning over the Cape Verde, or that Belgium is not a stronger opponent than Egypt?

But there was always the possibility of those surprises not happening, right?
If I have enough time, I will do this for the 2022 event for comparison.

The possibility is always there, but as far as I can remember, there are always surprises in the first round when it comes to world championships in football. I don't know what the psychology is behind it, but all that makes sense to me is that the stronger opponent underestimates the weaker one, while the weaker one plays beyond his capabilities just because he's already been written off.

If we look at the odds in the match between England and Croatia, the bookmakers obviously think the same as the English media/fans, which is that they are playing against a third-class team that they will win by at least 5 goals. I hope they will be disappointed as they were in Russia.

[KTChampions]

I'll probably take a chance with Belgium - 70%, it's worth the risk.

Here's some fuel for the conspiracy theorists: after Spain's game ended 0-0, I thought: well, I definitely need to bet on Belgium, since there are no more upsets for today.
Imagine my surprise when I saw the quotes at 1.50 instead of 1.70! I thought, "Could I have really been so mistaken or just imagined it?"
But no, your screenshot proves that Belgium's quotes rose from 1.70 to 1.50 in about 40-50 minutes. That's a monstrously huge change in quotes.
Now on to the conspiracy theories: those who lost on Spain ran to recoup their losses on Belgium, and the bookmakers caught them there a second time.

I'm not a fan of conspiracy theories about bookmakers and casinos (the math works in their favor without any other effort), but what happened seems strange to me.

[stompix]

20 games
10 wins, 10 losses!
Total wagered 20
Total loss -2.13

I will add as an exception a parlay, just as a side statistic, for all 4 games played in one matchday, will just add it till the end and then divide it by the rounds
1 parlay won 4.51

I might be away again for two days so this is what's coming the next days



Yeah, Portugal is already ruining this night!

In just this first round, there have already been several almost unbelievable surprises for me
~
Not easy to bet, I lost a lot of bets 

You're changing the best size, plus you're betting only on selected matches, you should have at least stuck to the same betroll as you're cheating the AI by making those decisions yourself, so you won't be able to 100% blame it for a failure.

Here's some fuel for the conspiracy theorists: after Spain's game ended 0-0, I thought: well, I definitely need to bet on Belgium, since there are no more upsets for today.
Imagine my surprise when I saw the quotes at 1.50 instead of 1.70! I thought, "Could I have really been so mistaken or just imagined it?"
But no, your screenshot proves that Belgium's quotes rose from 1.70 to 1.50 in about 40-50 minutes. That's a monstrously huge change in quotes.
Now on to the conspiracy theories: those who lost on Spain ran to recoup their losses on Belgium, and the bookmakers caught them there a second time.

Don't put too much faith in those screenshots, that's a median of what OddPortal throws at me, depending on the bookies it detects from my VPN
So there might be a change from country to country!

I do all the math on the results on aggregate starting price from Betfair.

Italy  vs Belgium:


x


One shows 2.25 on average, the other 2.30,

[KTChampions]

Here's some fuel for the conspiracy theorists: after Spain's game ended 0-0, I thought: well, I definitely need to bet on Belgium, since there are no more upsets for today.
Imagine my surprise when I saw the quotes at 1.50 instead of 1.70! I thought, "Could I have really been so mistaken or just imagined it?"
But no, your screenshot proves that Belgium's quotes rose from 1.70 to 1.50 in about 40-50 minutes. That's a monstrously huge change in quotes.
Now on to the conspiracy theories: those who lost on Spain ran to recoup their losses on Belgium, and the bookmakers caught them there a second time.

Don't put too much faith in those screenshots, that's a median of what OddPortal throws at me, depending on the bookies it detects from my VPN
So there might be a change from country to country!

What I meant was that I saw this odds (1.70) where I place my bets and was about to place it. After the Spanish result, I went to place my bet and was surprised that the odds changed. Your screenshot simply confirmed that I wasn't hallucinating when I initially targeted this outcome.
Damn, Portugal's draw broke the trend of the favorites turning things around and, frankly, really kicked me in the nuts in terms of cash betting. Why are they doing this to me! (After the first goal, I bet on Total Over 2.5 with odds of 1.30 lol).

[Mate2237]

From what I have seen so far in this world cup, especially the Portugal game that has just ended there are no favourite in this world cup. No team should be underrated at this point in this world cup because at this present point in time there is high probability of some of these small teams to make it out of the group stage. One thing we all need to know is that some of these so called small teams have actually improved, while most of the big teams are still holding on old glory.


The world cup will not be complete without these types of movement were these small teams will cause upset. Anyone taking the favorite odds should know that there is no favorite odds and there's no certainty of winning when it comes to the game of football.

[rachael9385]

From what I have seen so far in this world cup, especially the Portugal game that has just ended there are no favourite in this world cup. No team should be underrated at this point in this world cup because at this present point in time there is high probability of some of these small teams to make it out of the group stage. One thing we all need to know is that some of these so called small teams have actually improved, while most of the big teams are still holding on old glory.


The world cup will not be complete without these types of movement were these small teams will cause upset. Anyone taking the favorite odds should know that there is no favorite odds and there's no certainty of winning when it comes to the game of football.

In football as a whole even outside of the world cup no team should be underestimated because there are lots of things that happens on the pitch that's unexpected.  Like you said, some of the small teams have actually improved and In some cases gamblers don't do enough research to know if these teams actually improved or not, this is the reason why it's important to do analysis.

[Ever-young]

In football as a whole even outside of the world cup no team should be underestimated because there are lots of things that happens on the pitch that's unexpected

The countries that are participating in this World Cup has so far proven this point vividly. I never expected that Portugal would draw a game with Congo D R. It really came as a shock to me, I must confess. But I guess that’s just a sign that we should never underestimate any team/country, no matter how small, plus we should just expect anything and everything in this World Cup Tournament.

[stompix]

Update:

28 games
16 wins, 12 losses!
Total wagered 28
Total profit 0.50

We're back above zero!

What I meant was that I saw this odds (1.70) where I place my bets and was about to place it. After the Spanish result, I went to place my bet and was surprised that the odds changed. Your screenshot simply confirmed that I wasn't hallucinating when I initially targeted this outcome.

I get it, I thought of something else, but you never know how much money to throw at one thing because one other thing happened.
To be honest, quite happy that my losses in this one came from Spain and Portugal, not reallya fan of them.

From what I have seen so far in this world cup, especially the Portugal game that has just ended there are no favourite in this world cup.

Neither of them was favorite, do you have a problem with the way France and England played, deeming them not worthy of winning?

[Muba20]

In football as a whole even outside of the world cup no team should be underestimated because there are lots of things that happens on the pitch that's unexpected

The countries that are participating in this World Cup has so far proven this point vividly. I never expected that Portugal would draw a game with Congo D R. It really came as a shock to me, I must confess. But I guess that’s just a sign that we should never underestimate any team/country, no matter how small, plus we should just expect anything and everything in this World Cup Tournament.

I would definitely think the same because if big teams are in such a situation against average teams at the beginning of the World Cup, then it cannot be said that such a situation will not occur in the next matches. From my point of view, I think that every team is strong. At any time, a small team can win against big one. Recently, matches in which favorites are supposed to win are turning into draws. Gradually, when this first stage ends, there is a possibility of more big accidents. Such situations can often happen in World Cup football. If a country like Saudi Arabia can beat Argentina, then any situation can happen against any country on the field. It is better not to be 100% sure when placing bets, otherwise there is a possibility of big losses.

[lombok]

In football as a whole even outside of the world cup no team should be underestimated because there are lots of things that happens on the pitch that's unexpected

The countries that are participating in this World Cup has so far proven this point vividly. I never expected that Portugal would draw a game with Congo D R. It really came as a shock to me, I must confess. But I guess that’s just a sign that we should never underestimate any team/country, no matter how small, plus we should just expect anything and everything in this World Cup Tournament.

I would definitely think the same because if big teams are in such a situation against average teams at the beginning of the World Cup, then it cannot be said that such a situation will not occur in the next matches. From my point of view, I think that every team is strong. At any time, a small team can win against big one. Recently, matches in which favorites are supposed to win are turning into draws. Gradually, when this first stage ends, there is a possibility of more big accidents. Such situations can often happen in World Cup football. If a country like Saudi Arabia can beat Argentina, then any situation can happen against any country on the field. It is better not to be 100% sure when placing bets, otherwise there is a possibility of big losses.

There are quite a number of surprises that pop up in football. As viewers, we should keep in mind that big teams can be defeated by small teams on the field. I think you are entirely correct in not making the bet of utmost confidence. Use a tight rein on your money so as not to lose it as your popular team falls out of the blue.

[Achalugo BTC]

There are quite a number of surprises that pop up in football. As viewers, we should keep in mind that big teams can be defeated by small teams on the field. I think you are entirely correct in not making the bet of utmost confidence. Use a tight rein on your money so as not to lose it as your popular team falls out of the blue.

Of course, nothing stay stays the same forever, as hot water can't stay  hot forever likewise cold water stays cold forever, so its everything and everyone. When players begin to play in the pitch, people should be ready to be filled with surprises, as what you might not expect to happen, will take place. That is why one gats to always be disciplined or control themselves and also understand that anything can still happen,  as to protect their peace and their emotions and just enjoy the game.

[Makus]

This is a good strategy, betting on just a few games is better than adding a lot of games on a bet slip because when you only select a few games it is going to increase the chances of winning. But from experience I don't think I can always stick with favorites and make it an ultimate strategy because I have been disappointed a lot of times by these so called favorite teams. I always bet based on my analysis and research that I carry out and not because of the odds. Gambling only based on the odds is not a wise move to make.

[Cityhunter34]

In football as a whole even outside of the world cup no team should be underestimated because there are lots of things that happens on the pitch that's unexpected

The countries that are participating in this World Cup has so far proven this point vividly. I never expected that Portugal would draw a game with Congo D R. It really came as a shock to me, I must confess. But I guess that’s just a sign that we should never underestimate any team/country, no matter how small, plus we should just expect anything and everything in this World Cup Tournament.

Of course, I think bettors wouldn't be carried away by team's performance again, because what is happening in this tournament is something else. Honestly, the Portugal match was a big shocker to the World.

Nobody knew the game would end in a draw. Many concluded that Portugal will trash DR Congo, but it didn't happen that way, due to the fact that football is unpredictable. So it's essential to always understand that any team can win or draw against the favorite.

[KTChampions]

Update:

28 games
16 wins, 12 losses!
Total wagered 28
Total profit 0.50

We're back above zero!

Good news! Honestly, I didn't expect a comeback from such depths 
It seems like the plus is only getting bigger as the USA, Morocco and Brazil outweigh Turkey's defeat (how could that even happen with such a score and playing with the majority for half the game lol). I hope you get your affairs sorted out and continue updating the data.
There are some shady teams playing today, I don't trust them, especially Germany.

[stompix]

So, minor update, not counting Sweden, just getting trashed:

32 games
19 wins, 13 losses!
Total wagered 32
Total profit 1.08
last game counted Turkey Paraguay

I hope you get your affairs sorted out and continue updating the data.

I will get this done even if I have to go back in time and recover missed matches.  
I will add a placeholder with the last case, I almost screwed myself by copy-pasting a line and not realizing before closing the doc, I had to search all over the net to count what game was the 28th!

As for not trusting, I don't trust Japan, Belgium, Uruguay, and Egypt as being favorites; I'm not actually betting for two rounds in my own matches aside from this thing, I don't have one ounce of trust in those.

This is a good strategy, betting on just a few games is better than adding a lot of games on a bet slip because when you only select a few games it is going to increase the chances of winning.

Do you actually understand what the betting pattern here?

Of course, nothing stay stays the same forever, as hot water can't stay  hot forever likewise cold water stays cold forever, so its everything and everyone.

Socrates, is that you?

[Sticky Bomb]

In competitions like this, it's not very profitable to only bet on favorites, especially in the first round when surprises are always possible. Who would say that Spain will not succeed in winning over the Cape Verde, or that Belgium is not a stronger opponent than Egypt?

Those who earn extra profit these days are definitely bookies - and I'm really curious about that guy who bet $750k on the victory of Germany against Curacao - was he tempted to do the same with Spain?

The first games were an obvious mess, I guess the players were just stretching their legs in the competition. The round 2 seems to be producing more of expected results, especially with Netherlands and Brasil wins today. What I don't really understand is Ivory Coast winning Germany at halftime. I just hope they don't end up running my parlay for the day and I don't have any plans of cashing out.