Can we really fade the public without checking betting splits first?

[Mr Reporter]

If public betting have more potential to win, maybe we could follow that but we should research as the basic before decide. We can't bet blindly based on that, we need more data to find that is the right choice or not. But there is no problem if you still want to use the public betting because you responsible with your money and better knowing the risk more so you can handle that.

Right, everyone has the right to make their own choice, if they choose to bet blindly, its their own choice, but for the sake of avoiding blames and hurts, one needs to do some research before betting because anything can happen in gambling and will be held responsible for whatever outcome from gambling. So, risk what you can be able to handle your emotions if you lost your bet, although crowds might not be wrong at all times but for the sake of your mental health, its better to do the necessary thing.

Enlighten me more bra 😅 i think that one best thing in life that can happens to a man…just as you have made your point and made it  clear I will still say same thing everyone get to choose their part in this life even we like it or not that the bitter truth. No one can force you to bet or not… but like you have made mention the time you stake that funds somehow the outcome most looks like 100% on the person….blaming your self for the risk you have gotten yourself, and one of the most painful thing is that you would not even get the money back pulse add a little bit of extra headache and stress together

[boyptc]

Specific way of engaging safely is about betting with what you can afford to lose.

Exactly, most people are having issues with this kind of habit, its clearly stated that in gambling, one should ensure to gamble with what they can afford to lose for their own mental sake and to also protect themselves from reckless spending because there is no gain in gambling if one thinks they can make it through gambling, which they are to gamble and enjoy the game for entertainment purposes and not for any other reasons.

They have to watch themselves seriously if they think that they can make it with gambling.

That is overconfidence there and IMO, that's a dangerous thing to think of. Because many gamblers have fooled themselves believing that they can make it.

But in the end, they only played themselves with a belief that made them confident but they over gamble and still lost.

[TopT3ns]

Specific way of engaging safely is about betting with what you can afford to lose.

Exactly, most people are having issues with this kind of habit, its clearly stated that in gambling, one should ensure to gamble with what they can afford to lose for their own mental sake and to also protect themselves from reckless spending because there is no gain in gambling if one thinks they can make it through gambling, which they are to gamble and enjoy the game for entertainment purposes and not for any other reasons.

They have to watch themselves seriously if they think that they can make it with gambling.

That is overconfidence there and IMO, that's a dangerous thing to think of. Because many gamblers have fooled themselves believing that they can make it.

But in the end, they only played themselves with a belief that made them confident but they over gamble and still lost.

The most dangerous illusion is thinking that gambling is the road to success and ruining the life of a person. Another mind trap is associated with the state of being overconfidential which leads gamblers to neglect the rules of bare probability. The believe they are in charge but in actual sense they are just being controlled by fate. When playing casino, it is crucial to understand that casino are only won by the game provider.

[Rengga Jati]

When choosing A or B, honestly, considering other people's opinions can sometimes be quite confusing and make us hesitate. However, sometimes this is precisely what we should do. After all, in betting, there's no guarantee who will win or lose. So, there's not bad to look at public opinion.

But,,,,, make sure it's taken into consideration. So we know what the actual situation is at that moment, what the odds are, how the club is doing, or whatever we're betting on. Because, sometimes, it can also be something that makes us realize something we hadn't considered before. But again, the result, no one can guarantee it will always match what we bet on.

[Mandoy]

Specific way of engaging safely is about betting with what you can afford to lose.

Exactly, most people are having issues with this kind of habit, its clearly stated that in gambling, one should ensure to gamble with what they can afford to lose for their own mental sake and to also protect themselves from reckless spending because there is no gain in gambling if one thinks they can make it through gambling, which they are to gamble and enjoy the game for entertainment purposes and not for any other reasons.

They have to watch themselves seriously if they think that they can make it with gambling.

That is overconfidence there and IMO, that's a dangerous thing to think of. Because many gamblers have fooled themselves believing that they can make it.

But in the end, they only played themselves with a belief that made them confident but they over gamble and still lost.

The most dangerous illusion is thinking that gambling is the road to success and ruining the life of a person. Another mind trap is associated with the state of being overconfidential which leads gamblers to neglect the rules of bare probability. The believe they are in charge but in actual sense they are just being controlled by fate. When playing casino, it is crucial to understand that casino are only won by the game provider.

Yes, There is a lot of risk of getting too cocky while betting. Players tend to think they have a winning approach until they become complacent and overlook risk management and become more impulsive when it comes to taking bigger risks. Although it may be fun to play games, making it a sure way to make money seldom pays off. But I don't claim that every session will be a winning session for the casino, as player wins are still possible. The important thing is the house has the long term mathematical advantage. Being aware of this fact and playing only with funds that you can afford to lose makes gambling fun and manageable.

[Julien_Olynpic]

In fact, it often happens that the majority of bettors are right. This is often the case, for example, in matches involving established favorites. Can a established favorite lose? Yes, of course they can. But for this to happen, many factors must come together. Most likely, the favorite must be ill, while the underdog, on the other hand, must be in good form. Sometimes, the underdog is a young, rising star who is still too underrated, and this will only become apparent later. In this case, you can play against the majority. But this is certainly not a financial recommendation; you need to carefully manage your risks.

[Negotiation]

Many people think that to be smart, you always have to go against the flow but going against the public without any solid data or information means a sure loss. The biggest enemy is emotion the common man often bets on emotion or hype but when you are using your own filters or checklists, you are freeing yourself from that emotional trap. Also going against the public opinion only makes sense when you have an edge or secret information analysis that the common man has not seen. Otherwise, making decisions based on your own analysis is the only way to save capital maintaining this discipline is the key to long term success.

[ZeroVinsonN]

The is just pushing your luck as a bettor, the reason why the crowd is betting on one team over the other is because they are more likely to win, of course this also means that the other team ( the supposed underdog) will be given a much higher odd to win which will be a good payout to anyone who bets on them and wins but the whole point of their odd being that big is because they are not in a good position to win, I would rather work with stats that just completely be picking against anyone else.

That's true, instead of working with vibes, it's better to bet with stats, though its not always guaranteed but at least it will be of help because doing what you know how to best, helps one to avoid problems and moderate the way they gamble. However, in gambling, the most essential thing that one needs to do its safety, engaging in safe gambling its best strategy to keep the fun intact and also, they can be able to manage responsible gambling.

And betting with a strategy as flawed as this one does not show any sign of safe gambling, it's instead reckless and will mostly lead to loss, of course the whole point of it is to win big if they person wins since the odds are much bigger but that's still the problem, you don't know if they are going to win but what you do know is that they are most likely to lose, gambling is about risks but sometimes it's just too much of a risk for a person to take.

[Outhue]

If you want to lose yourself easily as a gambler or start to confuse yourself as a gambler then start worrying yourself about what other gamblers are doing or what they are betting on, betting against what other gamblers are betting on still doesn't make you a smart gambler, I don't and will never understand why people are looking for what's not lost, it just shows that many gamblers don't understand gambling at all, that's why they are looking for any ways to start beating casinos and others, you are just wasting your time honestly, you are not focusing on what you should be focusing on.

[iv4n]

Still, it does not mean we should blindly bet the other side. Sometimes the public is right too.

Sometimes the public is right, sometimes underdogs win... It's hard to predict what will happen with all the data, stats, and info available around. That's why it's all gambling.

By the way:
Action Network:



DraftKings:




So will it be an easy win for Portugal & England? Or maybe there will be some surprises...

[Darker45]

Firstly, I don't use this strategy. And I don't really find the wisdom behind this approach. Is this even an effective betting strategy, if a strategy at all?

I have friends who are generally contrarian in their picks. Not only do they pick the opposite of what they think is the winning result, they also pick the side which the group of friends thinks would lose. But this is generally in random games. I don't believe they do the same in sports betting.

Regardless, I agree with OP that if one is a contrarian in sports betting, it must be wiser to use websites that point them to which particular odds are heavily favored by the public.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

, everyone has the right to make their own choice, if they choose to bet blindly, its their own choice, but for the sake of avoiding blames and hurts, one needs to do some research before betting because anything can happen in gambling and will be held responsible for whatever outcome from gambling. So, risk what you can be able to handle your emotions if you lost your bet, although crowds might not be wrong at all times but for the sake of your mental health, its better to do the necessary thing.

For someone that chooses to bet blindly, they are only throwing away their money gradually meanwhile someone who does the proper analysis method ends up not betting against the public at all time because he or she knows that the public are most of the time right too, although believe that it's an experience bettor that goes against the public but the newbies always like to follow the footsteps of what the public predict.

[Wakate]

, everyone has the right to make their own choice, if they choose to bet blindly, its their own choice, but for the sake of avoiding blames and hurts, one needs to do some research before betting because anything can happen in gambling and will be held responsible for whatever outcome from gambling. So, risk what you can be able to handle your emotions if you lost your bet, although crowds might not be wrong at all times but for the sake of your mental health, its better to do the necessary thing.

For someone that chooses to bet blindly, they are only throwing away their money gradually meanwhile someone who does the proper analysis method ends up not betting against the public at all time because he or she knows that the public are most of the time right too, although believe that it's an experience bettor that goes against the public but the newbies always like to follow the footsteps of what the public predict.

Choosing bets blindly is not really the case right now, the problem is are you going to make profit from the bet.
There are cases of gamblers that have been on games they don't even have an idea that they are going to win.
Gamblers need to understand how gambling works and it is not something we can predict.

[Rubuchi]

Many people think that to be smart, you always have to go against the flow but going against the public without any solid data or information means a sure loss. The biggest enemy is emotion the common man often bets on emotion or hype but when you are using your own filters or checklists, you are freeing yourself from that emotional trap. Also going against the public opinion only makes sense when you have an edge or secret information analysis that the common man has not seen. Otherwise, making decisions based on your own analysis is the only way to save capital maintaining this discipline is the key to long term success.

you are not far from the truth, but sometimes following people can also be misleading but I think in most cases, it is better to follow what others are saying rather than what you are assuming unless if you have some level of assurances from your end. I have seen people who let public opinions to define their own decisions despite their assurances. When you are sure of a decision do not allow the public opinion to make you change easily. It is more painful to lose a bet you've planned but later changed your mind to public opinion than to lose a bet you chose for yourself despite the opinion of the public.

[KiaKia]

A lot of bettors say “fade the public” like it is already a sure strategy. If many people are betting on one side, they quickly look at the opposite side.

But honestly, how do we even know where the public is betting if we don’t check any real data?

If we want to use that as part of our decision, then we should at least look for reliable websites that offer free betting splits or public betting percentages. Sites like Action Network, VSiN, or DraftKings betting splits can give us some signs where most public bets are going.

Still, it does not mean we should blindly bet the other side. Sometimes the public is right too. But at least if we check the numbers first, we are not just guessing or following what people say.

For those who use this strategy, do you trust bet percentage, money percentage, or line movement more when making your decision?

Links that may help:

Code:

https://www.actionnetwork.com/public-betting
https://vsin.com/betting-splits/
https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/draftkings-sportsbook-betting-splits/

The public are dumb people? That's exactly how this sounds, this is gambling, not crypto investment where people will say always do the opposite of what people are doing it's different.

If I have to choose between doing analysis or choosing the opposite of what the public is doing I would choose doing my own analysis because at the end of it all the public might be doing something right.

Till today there are still many lucky gamblers out there that are hitting the jackpot and other, I know that they aren't many like those who are losing, this is enough prove that the public aren't always wrong.

[impulse709]

Specific way of engaging safely is about betting with what you can afford to lose.

Exactly, most people are having issues with this kind of habit, its clearly stated that in gambling, one should ensure to gamble with what they can afford to lose for their own mental sake and to also protect themselves from reckless spending because there is no gain in gambling if one thinks they can make it through gambling, which they are to gamble and enjoy the game for entertainment purposes and not for any other reasons.

They have to watch themselves seriously if they think that they can make it with gambling.

That is overconfidence there and IMO, that's a dangerous thing to think of. Because many gamblers have fooled themselves believing that they can make it.

But in the end, they only played themselves with a belief that made them confident but they over gamble and still lost.

The most dangerous illusion is thinking that gambling is the road to success and ruining the life of a person. Another mind trap is associated with the state of being overconfidential which leads gamblers to neglect the rules of bare probability. The believe they are in charge but in actual sense they are just being controlled by fate. When playing casino, it is crucial to understand that casino are only won by the game provider.

It's fair to say that gamblers lose money because of being too confident. A lot of people begin by winning a few times and think that they have finally found a sure-fire way to win, but this is not how gambling goes. In some games or sports betting, skill does come into play, but it's always a matter of luck. The risk lies when gamblers neglect bankroll management and aim to make a living from gambling. Casinos and bookmakers run with a mathematical advantage and this is typically the case in the long run. Gambling is supposed to be a form of entertainment and not a means to make money.

[len01]

I very rarely bet against the public, and for me that is not a realistic option. Of course, when betting against the public, we usually want high odds. That is essentially the same as hoping for a streak of luck.

For example, in football there might be 5 matches, and only one match might bring a lucky outcome where the underdog wins. That would be very profitable, but the other 4 bets would lose because we are betting against the public, and it would feel like a waste.

So I never use that kind of strategy and instead continue to trust my own analysis.

[Tungbulu]

For someone that chooses to bet blindly, they are only throwing away their money gradually meanwhile someone who does the proper analysis method ends up not betting against the public at all time because he or she knows that the public are most of the time right too, although believe that it's an experience bettor that goes against the public but the newbies always like to follow the footsteps of what the public predict.

Sometimes, I personally like to take such challenge of going against public polls when it comes to predicting games. There have been a few times I’ve done it, and most of them turned out positively. I’m not saying that I’m a pro bettor, but there are times, in fact most of the times, I like to just follow my guts, because most times I follow my guts, it’s mostly positive, which why I choose it that to follow the public, except of course my prediction and analysis led me to what the public is saying.

[gracreavix]

Are those websites really giving accurate data? Or are they just another platform that somehow deduced another means to take your money? And following opposite sides is not actually an edge if you don't do your own research. It's just a waste of time. For whoever does this to even think the public is wrong is absurd. What even makes you sure the public is wrong in the first place and think your own decision is right when, in fact, it's a guessing game?

If it were true they have figured out how to know where the public places their bets, I mean the websites, it will in turn affect the odds. You won't expect to know where the public places their bets and think the odds will be big. No, they won't. How will they pay everyone if everyone wins?

If one wants to actually use betting splits, it's best you do your own analysis. The public might be right.

[sompitonov]

I very rarely bet against the public, and for me that is not a realistic option. Of course, when betting against the public, we usually want high odds. That is essentially the same as hoping for a streak of luck.

For example, in football there might be 5 matches, and only one match might bring a lucky outcome where the underdog wins. That would be very profitable, but the other 4 bets would lose because we are betting against the public, and it would feel like a waste.

So I never use that kind of strategy and instead continue to trust my own analysis.

Betting against the public isn't always successful, as the public sometimes picks unexpected matches. However, if the public bets heavily on one team, the odds worsen, making it more profitable to bet on the opposite team. Therefore, it's best to research and evaluate the odds yourself, maximizing your expertise, which will likely give you a better chance of betting ahead of the crowd. Ultimately, expertise is still required, allowing a player to achieve excellent results, but we mustn't forget about randomness, which can ruin even the best players' statistics due to various small details.