Trump teleprompter operator made $100K betting on Kalshi markets

[Texac]

Isn't it true that prediction markets are often abused by insiders, especially those who work in government? President Donald Trump is the most in the spotlight and at stake in prediction markets because of his controversies so I wouldn't be strange for some people to use his office to make money.

Essentially, a situation where a prediction bet that can still be controlled by humans can still be manipulated or abused, as you said. Ironically, these possibilities are still wide open, making the betting market appear unfair. In my opinion, prediction markets should have specific regulations regarding bet predictions that can be rigged, and they should prioritize betting markets; that cannot be controlled by humans (such as; natural phenomena that occur beyond human control).

I also think if someone has insider information, like in this case, or is able to influence the probability of event through their own action then it inevitably create conflict of interest and open the door to abuse.

That said, I don't think this means that all prediction market are unfair. To me real issue is  choice of market themselve. Event like election, political decisions or government appointment will always be much more vulnerable to insider information and manipulation than, for example, sporting event or natural phenomena.

I think this is exactly where prediction market platform need to be much more careful about which event they list. If necessary they should limit most controversial category and introduce additional safeguard. In my opinion, it's impossible to eliminate manipulation completely but it's definitely possible to reduce the chance of it happening.

[Satofan44]

that's how they got rid of the man so that he wouldn't disgrace the great Trump and his entourage.

It seems that you are salty for some other reason because you live in a 3rd world shithole. Do or don't, you damn someone for whatever course of action they take even if they take the correct course of action. Were they to refuse to fire him, you would complain like a little child. Now that they did fire him, you also complain.  

The main thing: who said this was his first time earning money this way? This one just happened to become public knowledge.

Someone who has hundreds of millions does not conduct risky criminal activities to earn $100k. You are just too poor to understand the incentives and risk management strategies that revolve around rich people. Nobody rich is involved with this, it has been done independently by the operator -- it does not even matter how many time they did something. Sometimes a single-off criminal takes a very long time to catch, other times a repeat offender takes a very long time to catch. It depends, you can't conclude anything from superficial information.

And the fact that he was "taken down" most likely suggests that this model had been operating for a long time; he just happened to "expose the scheme".

No, that is not what being taken down in any context suggests. You can't derive information about historical operations just because someone was "taken down". Sometimes they are taken down as soon as they do something stupid, other times it takes a very long time to take someone down.

P.S. I think we’ll hear pretty soon that this poor soul who made $100K will either accidentally get hit by a car, or a "sudden and brief illness" will strike him....

GTFO with your lies, the US is not a Russian or Ukranian shithole.  

That said, I don't think this means that all prediction market are unfair. To me real issue is  choice of market themselve. Event like election, political decisions or government appointment will always be much more vulnerable to insider information and manipulation than, for example, sporting event or natural phenomena.

Someone using insider information on prediction markets does not impact anyone else who is participating unless they are basing their choices on what other people bet -- which is their stupidity. Therefore, most users here are just salty because they are poor pajeets that do not have any information which they could monetize. That is why they hate anyone who can monetize information, whether legally or illegally.  

[tvplus006]

What really surprised me is that they found out he actually make money out of those information he got huh, I guess he isnt that bright enough. If I were him then I probably gonna let someone close to me to do all those betting for me then split it half instead of making it myself

Obviously, he was confident of his impunity and decided that he should not share his profits in order to avoid any connection with winning bets. And this will continue to happen, because against the background of what the president allows himself to do, his subordinates' moral qualities also decrease.

[DrBeer]

The main thing: who said this was his first time earning money this way? This one just happened to become public knowledge.

Someone who has hundreds of millions does not conduct risky criminal activities to earn $100k. You are just too poor to understand the incentives and risk management strategies that revolve around rich people. Nobody rich is involved with this, it has been done independently by the operator -- it does not even matter how many time they did something. Sometimes a single-off criminal takes a very long time to catch, other times a repeat offender takes a very long time to catch. It depends, you can't conclude anything from superficial information.

And the fact that he was "taken down" most likely suggests that this model had been operating for a long time; he just happened to "expose the scheme".

No, that is not what being taken down in any context suggests. You can't derive information about historical operations just because someone was "taken down". Sometimes they are taken down as soon as they do something stupid, other times it takes a very long time to take someone down.

P.S. I think we’ll hear pretty soon that this poor soul who made $100K will either accidentally get hit by a car, or a "sudden and brief illness" will strike him....

GTFO with your lies, the US is not a Russian or Ukranian shithole.  

1. Is there any argument to support the assumption that he has hundreds of millions? Besides, I don’t think anyone,not even a rich person, would turn down the chance to easily and voluntarily earn another $100,000 without breaking a sweat!
2. That’s a debatable point. Many schemes have been operating for years and decades, but ordinary people simply aren’t aware of them because the decisions are made at a higher level, and people from those communities just don’t cross paths with us. I can give you many examples of such "schemes"
3. Oh, what’s with all this nervous behavior?!   I hope that was a joke, because for a normal person, it’s hard to see that kind of behavior as reasonable   I hope you get a response, since your comment seems very ambiguous


P.S. By the way-what country are you from? Assuming, of course, that you’re not too embarrassed to admit it? 

[Satofan44]

1. Is there any argument to support the assumption that he has hundreds of millions? Besides, I don’t think anyone,not even a rich person, would turn down the chance to easily and voluntarily earn another $100,000 without breaking a sweat!
2. That’s a debatable point. Many schemes have been operating for years and decades, but ordinary people simply aren’t aware of them because the decisions are made at a higher level, and people from those communities just don’t cross paths with us. I can give you many examples of such "schemes"
3. Oh, what’s with all this nervous behavior?!   I hope that was a joke, because for a normal person, it’s hard to see that kind of behavior as reasonable   I hope you get a response, since your comment seems very ambiguous

1. You are just making logical fallacies and communist-like convictions. Whether he actually has $10 million, $100 million or $10 billion is not relevant to this at all other than as an assistive-argument in reasoning for the fallacy of the claim that rich people would commit crimes for amounts that are like pocket change to them -- and since his wealth is mostly privately owned, its exact value cannot be audited. Nevertheless, the allegation is not about his wealth it is about misconduct for which there is no proof. The burden of proof first lies on the one bringing forth the accusation. In any reasonable place, you would be removed for making false claims -- but since you are a nobody from a shithole, then nobody is going to sue you for making such claims and thus the cycle continues. There is no proof, indication or anything at all that makes Trump suspect in this case which places the entire case on fabrication by biased morons.
2. Again, you made a false claim based on zero evidence and as such you need to present evidence for it or shut up. This is a one-off case until proven otherwise, we don't live in a shithole that has guilty until proven innocent.
3. There is no nervous behavior, Ukranian and Russian shitholes are known for this kind of shit and not the US. Zelensky is a retard but keep clapping.  

P.S. By the way-what country are you from? Assuming, of course, that you’re not too embarrassed to admit it?  

The best country in the world, I am not a parasitic pajeet unlike most of the users here.

What really surprised me is that they found out he actually make money out of those information he got huh, I guess he isnt that bright enough. If I were him then I probably gonna let someone close to me to do all those betting for me then split it half instead of making it myself

Obviously, he was confident of his impunity and decided that he should not share his profits in order to avoid any connection with winning bets. And this will continue to happen, because against the background of what the president allows himself to do, his subordinates' moral qualities also decrease.

Where is the difference between being retarded and confident? Nevertheless, such suggestions are also useless -- it is not like they would not figure out that "someone close to him" made a lot of information that he had. It is one of the most obvious ways that someone gets busted in the US. If you want to conceal something, then you must

[DrBeer]

1. Is there any argument to support the assumption that he has hundreds of millions? Besides, I don’t think anyone,not even a rich person, would turn down the chance to easily and voluntarily earn another $100,000 without breaking a sweat!
2. That’s a debatable point. Many schemes have been operating for years and decades, but ordinary people simply aren’t aware of them because the decisions are made at a higher level, and people from those communities just don’t cross paths with us. I can give you many examples of such "schemes"
3. Oh, what’s with all this nervous behavior?!   I hope that was a joke, because for a normal person, it’s hard to see that kind of behavior as reasonable   I hope you get a response, since your comment seems very ambiguous

1. You are just making logical fallacies and communist-like convictions. Whether he actually has $10 million, $100 million or $10 billion is not relevant to this at all other than as an assistive-argument in reasoning for the fallacy of the claim that rich people would commit crimes for amounts that are like pocket change to them -- and since his wealth is mostly privately owned, its exact value cannot be audited. Nevertheless, the allegation is not about his wealth it is about misconduct for which there is no proof. The burden of proof first lies on the one bringing forth the accusation. In any reasonable place, you would be removed for making false claims -- but since you are a nobody from a shithole, then nobody is going to sue you for making such claims and thus the cycle continues. There is no proof, indication or anything at all that makes Trump suspect in this case which places the entire case on fabrication by biased morons.
2. Again, you made a false claim based on zero evidence and as such you need to present evidence for it or shut up. This is a one-off case until proven otherwise, we don't live in a shithole that has guilty until proven innocent.
3. There is no nervous behavior, Ukranian and Russian shitholes are known for this kind of shit and not the US. Zelensky is a retard but keep clapping.  

P.S. By the way-what country are you from? Assuming, of course, that you’re not too embarrassed to admit it?  

The best country in the world, I am not a parasitic pajeet unlike most of the users here.

....

Point out the logical fallacy, and we’ll discuss it. But without any arguments, I could just as easily say that you’re the one making logical errors and acting like… well, say, a Maoist! Sounds pretty silly, doesn’t it?  By the way, you haven’t provided a single piece of evidence either, and it would be really nice if you did… well, at the very least so you don’t come across as someone with "double standards" and resorting to extremely primitive manipulation 
By the way, communism is an ideology I hate with all my heart, as one of the most inhumane and bloody.

"The best country in the world, I am not a parasitic pajeet unlike most of the users here". - and again, not a word of truth, not a shred of evidence    Don’t stoop to such a primitive level!

[alastantiger]

It is funny how Trump and his aides are all caught up in the prediction market saga. Majority of the prediction market leakage has been from the President's cabinet all acting on inside information. No doubt about what you have said, maybe they should investigate them too there is every possibility of them leaking information to their cronies who will on return reward them for their information just to cover their identity.

I will completely believe if President Trump is involved in this kind of issues because he looks like someone who can do something like that or have an idea that his adminstration is involved in such illegal practice and would not say anything. If something like this was to happen during the time of another government then I might not blame the government as they might not be involved and encourage such activity. Insider trading/gambling is a serious crime hence anything possible should be done to identify those involved use them and then use them as an example for others to learn from. It's not fair to use the advantage you have as an insider to make profits while others lose as that is a  criminal offense.

[bakasabo]

Since kyc is a mandatory for Kalshi, after this case, who will continue using Kalshi markets? Think about how this case even got disclosed? Kalshi identified Trunps teleprompter, identified that he is making money than losing, and made this story public. Or I dont know how else that teleprompter got caught. This story has too many questions.

[swogerino]

Since kyc is a mandatory for Kalshi, after this case, who will continue using Kalshi markets? Think about how this case even got disclosed? Kalshi identified Trunps teleprompter, identified that he is making money than losing, and made this story public. Or I dont know how else that teleprompter got caught. This story has too many questions.

I find it somewhat funny that people around Trump are making money while average Americans suffer with gas and grocery prices. Regarding him having insider information is not a crime so he used it to his own benefit and won a nice amount of money which is a Us yearly average salary for one like him. The bad thing is why Kalshi want to settle with CFTC this case and why they identified exactly him as a winner. To many unanswered questions here but my final point is how are average US citizens not doing anything to change this government that brought them massive inflation in prices.

[sompitonov]

It is funny how Trump and his aides are all caught up in the prediction market saga. Majority of the prediction market leakage has been from the President's cabinet all acting on inside information. No doubt about what you have said, maybe they should investigate them too there is every possibility of them leaking information to their cronies who will on return reward them for their information just to cover their identity.

I will completely believe if President Trump is involved in this kind of issues because he looks like someone who can do something like that or have an idea that his adminstration is involved in such illegal practice and would not say anything. If something like this was to happen during the time of another government then I might not blame the government as they might not be involved and encourage such activity. Insider trading/gambling is a serious crime hence anything possible should be done to identify those involved use them and then use them as an example for others to learn from. It's not fair to use the advantage you have as an insider to make profits while others lose as that is a  criminal offense.

I think that, like many other betting platforms, they have a risk department, and as soon as they see big players who've won a large sum of money in a short period of time, say, 100,000 in two weeks, they'll naturally start investigating them. I'm not sure that's exactly how it works, but I think that's the procedure. In any case, they've been identified, and there are two sides to the coin: first, the dishonest players will be found sooner or later, and second, they have a lot of resources to counteract anonymity. I'm more concerned about another thing: there are still plenty of players with similar profiles who continue to win, but they'll never be found.