Prediction markets, insider information, and... Trump!

[meser#]

Politics and insider  trading tend to go hand in hand
It does not matter who the leader is there will always be insider trading in politics

This is the truth but it seems some people are too emotional to admit it. Maybe their hatred for Donald Trump or his policies might be what is beclouding their sense of judgement. No doubt Trump is a businessman that knows how to use his powers to manipulate the market but for this one, what he is doing is not new and totally not against the law else his advisers would have discouraged him. Nevertheless, there is no denying that Trump is doing this primarily to make some money.

Yes, it’s true—there isn't a single politician who doesn't do this—but what Trump did is hardly right. What does it even mean to provide advance notice for a $100,000 monthly fee? That is tantamount to saying, "I can manipulate anything." They might as well just team up with big corporations and rob people blind.
It would be better if Trump just asked everyone in the world for a dollar instead of doing this.
This just goes to show that a businessman doesn't make a good politician.

[Satofan44]

I had made a thread about this here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5583649.0

Basically we have to consider that the whole concept of a prediction market is fundamentally about monetizing the insider activity and knowledge.
Without insider knowledge there's no reason to put money there as an investment as it's just gambling and not a calculated risk.

So nobody should be surprised the person who hired the supreme court to get total immunity would monetize it. It's literally the highest degree of capitalism. Good luck to polymarket trying to ban the literal president of the USA. It would be extremely funny if they tried though.

That is nonsense, anything can be calculated risk including gambling. Just because you are not able to make good predictions on any kind of event, that does not mean that something purely exists for "monetizing insider activity and knowledge". The bad player blaming the game for being bad at it is one of the most iconic examples of modernity's idiocy -- in a just world, such a player would be swiftly removed from the public platform. Whether someone has or has not insider knowledge and is able to monetize it has nothing to do with the other players who are participating in prediction markets. Their knowledge does not have any effect on you unless you are basing your decisions primarily or in support of what others are currently betting on -- which again, is a grave error on the side of the player.

If you are good at predictions, you can win along the insiders. They present no obstacle to you. Stop with the 3rd world envy because you are poor and other people have money, it does you no good. 

[DrBeer]

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

We understand that currently there are various prediction market scandals involving insider information, we understand that the situation that has occurred recently has caused many parties to comment negatively on prediction markets, In fact, what I know is that currently the federal authorities have also initiated investigations into various cases that occurred, such as around Donald Trump, who took advantage of access to gamble for personal gain.

As I know the case of the Teleprompter Operator Case, maybe here there is a topic created by someone who won some money on the Kalshi platform, For this reason, with the involvement of a circle of people including Donald Trump himself, he actually made various bad comments about prediction market sites, that's the way the online world is, it's hard to believe.

The fact is that what Trump wants to implement is not about prediction markets; it is, in essence, legalized corruption through "exclusive access" to critically important information, the use of which for personal gain could allow one to earn enormous sums "without lifting a finger", simply by lining the pockets of certain individuals-what is known as a "bribe".

[Maslate]

Would that really be the meaning of it?

I mean, he is the president, so he knows that using insider information is illegal. If he is doing that and still getting away with it, then it would suggest selective justice, which does not make sense to me. He should be setting an example, not be the one doing something illegal just to benefit himself.

This is how I see it: if he were involved in corruption, I do not think he would do it in such an obvious way. He would not even need to. With access to information that is not yet public, he could influence the Bitcoin market and potentially make millions from insider knowledge without making it so obvious.

[Satofan44]

The fact is that what Trump wants to implement is not about prediction markets; it is, in essence, legalized corruption through "exclusive access" to critically important information, the use of which for personal gain could allow one to earn enormous sums "without lifting a finger", simply by lining the pockets of certain individuals-what is known as a "bribe".

Stop repeating this nonsense, I explained to you that this already exists and is completely legal. You are extremely biased against Trump, like many Islamic extremist retards from Iran on this forum. Either you are against low-latency news feeds or you are not, but if you are then you have to go after all of the ones that exist. Trump's news feed will be the most recent one in a long list of established news feeds of this kind, he should be the last person you are criticizing. Furthermore, it seems that a lot of people here are dirt port whether from Ukraine, Russia, or other 3rd world shitholes and they have a huge issue with envy regarding to the business dealings of others. Maybe you should instead look at your defense industry oligarchs that are enjoying the death of all the people in the battlefield before you focus on Trump and prediction markets.  

Would that really be the meaning of it?

I mean, he is the president, so he knows that using insider information is illegal. If he is doing that and still getting away with it, then it would suggest selective justice, which does not make sense to me. He should be setting an example, not be the one doing something illegal just to benefit himself.

I already explained it several ways across many posts. Instead of writing another useless reply in this thread, read the factual information that I have provided:

• Not insider information.
• Not corruption.
• Nothing new, already exists and common.

This is how I see it: if he were involved in corruption, I do not think he would do it in such an obvious way. He would not even need to. With access to information that is not yet public, he could influence the Bitcoin market and potentially make millions from insider knowledge without making it so obvious.

This part is correct. Literally every politician that someone supports here but is against Trump is doing much worse things covertly, especially in European countries. It is ironic and baffling how stupid the people who are criticizing Trump are. Clean up your own house first, useless European shitholes.
What is presented here is perfectly legal, nothing will happen to Trump. Enough of the envy because you are dirt poor and can't afford such financial tools. Whether someone will commit a crime to use insider information illegally on prediction markets or in other ways has nothing to do with Trump, his news-feed or anything provided here.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

Why are some taking this personal because they dislike Trump.

Have been seeing a lot of contrary opinions, but we cannot establish any facts on whether Trump is aware of some of these things or not, as this is more of his teleporter issue, I'm not in support of prediction market in any way but with the way people are playing it shows that they could also be a kind of loophole the entire process, but you cannot also establish any fact that this is how it was being done and those that take advantage of this at the same time, this is why you can discover that not or Gambler do consider playing prediction market.

[xenomorfo]

Yes, it?s true?there isn't a single politician who doesn't do this?but what Trump did is hardly right. What does it even mean to provide advance notice for a $100,000 monthly fee? That is tantamount to saying, "I can manipulate anything." They might as well just team up with big corporations and rob people blind.
It would be better if Trump just asked everyone in the world for a dollar instead of doing this.
This just goes to show that a businessman doesn't make a good politician.

a disgusting thing, worthy of a pedophile pig which he and the other dirty pigs of his friends were in after all
a nice bunch of pigs

Now getting back to the topic, in your opinion is it difficult to use Polymarket, does anyone have an easy, fool-proof guide? I'm curious

[DrBeer]

The fact is that what Trump wants to implement is not about prediction markets; it is, in essence, legalized corruption through "exclusive access" to critically important information, the use of which for personal gain could allow one to earn enormous sums "without lifting a finger", simply by lining the pockets of certain individuals-what is known as a "bribe".

Stop repeating this nonsense, I explained to you that this already exists and is completely legal. You are extremely biased against Trump, like many Islamic extremist retards from Iran on this forum. Either you are against low-latency news feeds or you are not, but if you are then you have to go after all of the ones that exist. Trump's news feed will be the most recent one in a long list of established news feeds of this kind, he should be the last person you are criticizing. Furthermore, it seems that a lot of people here are dirt port whether from Ukraine, Russia, or other 3rd world shitholes and they have a huge issue with envy regarding to the business dealings of others. Maybe you should instead look at your defense industry oligarchs that are enjoying the death of all the people in the battlefield before you focus on Trump and prediction markets.  

Why is it nonsense? It’s normal for you to have your own opinion. I have mine, and I have my arguments
Before accusing me of "repeating nonsense", you should look at the situation not just from the perspective of this specific case, but consider the bigger picture of Trump’s behavior.  I’ve written this more than once: in my personal opinion, Trump has decided that the U.S. presidency grants him the United States as a kind of "private business", or that he perceives the presidency as the transfer of the United States for his personal use, and as a "businessman", he uses it for his own commercial gain, just like a private business. However, he’s run up against the fact that, as it turns out, there are legislative and judicial branches in the U.S., and this is preventing him from "doing business". But Trump is VERY greedy when it comes to money, and knowing his past, I’ve come to the conclusion that this "project" is a symbiosis of power, corruption, and business. I don’t see any signs of stupidity in this.
Especially since we already know of many examples where people in Trump’s inner circle, just hours or days before he made certain statements, "coincidentally" took steps that "coincidentally" brought them massive profits within hours or days.

[DrBeer]

Politics and insider  trading tend to go hand in hand
It does not matter who the leader is there will always be insider trading in politics

This is the truth but it seems some people are too emotional to admit it. Maybe their hatred for Donald Trump or his policies might be what is beclouding their sense of judgement. No doubt Trump is a businessman that knows how to use his powers to manipulate the market but for this one, what he is doing is not new and totally not against the law else his advisers would have discouraged him. Nevertheless, there is no denying that Trump is doing this primarily to make some money.

Yes, it’s true—there isn't a single politician who doesn't do this—but what Trump did is hardly right. What does it even mean to provide advance notice for a $100,000 monthly fee? That is tantamount to saying, "I can manipulate anything." They might as well just team up with big corporations and rob people blind.
It would be better if Trump just asked everyone in the world for a dollar instead of doing this.
This just goes to show that a businessman doesn't make a good politician.

Yes, I agree that many people try to take advantage of this, but they do so very cautiously, not publicly, and... out of fear of getting into serious trouble, facing lawsuits, huge fines, and reputational damage.
Trump has decided that he is "God on Earth" and "the most cunning", and that this will allow him to legally profit from illegal activities. We’ll see what happens after the election and a potential shift in the balance of power in U.S. politics. 

[Alpha Marine]

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

It is not insider information pe say, but it is very unethical and wrong. The tweets of the US president have an effect on the market, and they know this. So what this means is that people who get it first will act upon it first before anyone else. This shows that a lot of the tweets that Trump has been putting up that have an effect on various markets were intentional.
This shouldn't be allowed at all. It's crazy how the president of the United States himself can be involved in something like this.
I think you should post a link to the article so we can see and verify if it's a credible source or not.

Trump himself may not be aware of the corruption within his officials and this kind of corruption is a low level tier corruption

How can you read what OP said and say Trump might not know about it and it's a low-level corruption? This is corruption at the highest level involving the president and some of the biggest corporations in the country; there is no way the president would not be aware of it. Nobody would sanction such a deal without the president's say-so.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Right now, predictions don't hold much weight. Just look at the fact that you have to abide by the rules or regulations of the war imposed by the USA. Yes, Trump has a lot to do with it; now Trump is the type who manages these things. That's why, while we believe that technical analyses can be done like before, it's not the case. But it's still a big business for casinos in predictions, contests, or things like that.

[DrBeer]

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

It is not insider information pe say, but it is very unethical and wrong. The tweets of the US president have an effect on the market, and they know this. So what this means is that people who get it first will act upon it first before anyone else. This shows that a lot of the tweets that Trump has been putting up that have an effect on various markets were intentional.
This shouldn't be allowed at all. It's crazy how the president of the United States himself can be involved in something like this.
I think you should post a link to the article so we can see and verify if it's a credible source or not.

Trump himself may not be aware of the corruption within his officials and this kind of corruption is a low level tier corruption

How can you read what OP said and say Trump might not know about it and it's a low-level corruption? This is corruption at the highest level involving the president and some of the biggest corporations in the country; there is no way the president would not be aware of it. Nobody would sanction such a deal without the president's say-so.

On the one hand, I can agree with you because we always think of insider information as information from companies and businesses. But here, the situation is completely different. In this case, it is the president himself who is engaging in insider trading—or, more precisely, the premature disclosure of non-public information!

But to understand why this is essentially the same thing, let’s read the classic definition of insider information and its key characteristics!
"Insider information is accurate, confidential, and non-public information about a company’s or market’s activities, the possession of which provides an advantage. If this information reaches the general public, they may be able to make money or avoid losing money, as it significantly affects stock prices or commodity prices.
Key Characteristics
Confidentiality: The information has not been published in the media and is hidden from the general public.
Significance: The information can significantly alter stock prices or exchange rates.
Reliability: These are true facts, not rumors.
"
Does the truth align with what Trump is trying to sell  via subscription? This is state-sponsored insider information.
 

[swogerino]

Right now, predictions don't hold much weight. Just look at the fact that you have to abide by the rules or regulations of the war imposed by the USA. Yes, Trump has a lot to do with it; now Trump is the type who manages these things. That's why, while we believe that technical analyses can be done like before, it's not the case. But it's still a big business for casinos in predictions, contests, or things like that.

With the dumbest president ever in the history of US it is easy now to predict markets based on just Instagram posts regarding the latest US war that is somewhat still ongoing. I say it is easy because just before the weekend Trump threatens Iran and prices of oil go up while as soon as "Taco Tuesday" he backs up from the threats and that is how smart people can profit from this drama. Of course profiting over many dead people is nothing I would ever do so I always refrain from such predictions.

[Fiatless]

Yes, I agree that many people try to take advantage of this, but they do so very cautiously, not publicly, and... out of fear of getting into serious trouble, facing lawsuits, huge fines, and reputational damage.
Trump has decided that he is "God on Earth" and "the most cunning", and that this will allow him to legally profit from illegal activities. We’ll see what happens after the election and a potential shift in the balance of power in U.S. politics. 

Trump might end up not making so much from his subscription. I assume this because only a few people might subscribe to this $100,000 package and use the information to make more money. They would just set up a platform where they share the insider information they get from Trump posts and redistribute it to others for a fee. Set up a social media platform where people can subscribe and pay a fee to get access to PONTUS posts. So third parties or middlemen will end up making more money.

Trump is really setting several morally wrong precedents as US president.

[Bluedrem]

Since Trump is still one of the most powerful people in the world, his announcements and actions have an impact on many things, especially in the commercial sector. Honestly, if Trump were to announce right now that his country is declaring Bitcoin as its national currency, we cannot even imagine where the price of Bitcoin would reach. On the contrary, if Trump were to declare Bitcoin as a worthless asset, we would see Bitcoin go down a lot. Let's not forget that when Trump came to power in his second term, part of his election campaign was the acceptance of Bitcoin, which is why many people voted for him. Even if he now declares war verbally, we would still be in a global economic turmoil.

[Dunamisx]

Yes, I agree that many people try to take advantage of this, but they do so very cautiously, not publicly, and... out of fear of getting into serious trouble, facing lawsuits, huge fines, and reputational damage.
Trump has decided that he is "God on Earth" and "the most cunning", and that this will allow him to legally profit from illegal activities. We’ll see what happens after the election and a potential shift in the balance of power in U.S. politics. 

Trump might end up not making so much from his subscription. I assume this because only a few people might subscribe to this $100,000 package and use the information to make more money. They would just set up a platform where they share the insider information they get from Trump posts and redistribute it to others for a fee. Set up a social media platform where people can subscribe and pay a fee to get access to PONTUS posts. So third parties or middlemen will end up making more money.

Trump is really setting several morally wrong precedents as US president.

I may not totally support working  by assumption in this manner, because there is no cognates evidence to prove on whether any of these happens or not, it is just a suggestion or feelings we have towards it, though there is a probability of such happening, but on this case I don't think there is any valid evidence to use against Trump involvement, secondly, I know that things got more complicated only because of the teleporter that was involved in this issue, who is more of an aid to the president on Media related issues, but not still a point to draw conclusion upon.

[Dump3er]

-

On the one hand, I can agree with you because we always think of insider information as information from companies and businesses. But here, the situation is completely different. In this case, it is the president himself who is engaging in insider trading—or, more precisely, the premature disclosure of non-public information!

But to understand why this is essentially the same thing, let’s read the classic definition of insider information and its key characteristics!
"Insider information is accurate, confidential, and non-public information about a company’s or market’s activities, the possession of which provides an advantage. If this information reaches the general public, they may be able to make money or avoid losing money, as it significantly affects stock prices or commodity prices.
Key Characteristics
Confidentiality: The information has not been published in the media and is hidden from the general public.
Significance: The information can significantly alter stock prices or exchange rates.
Reliability: These are true facts, not rumors.
"
Does the truth align with what Trump is trying to sell  via subscription? This is state-sponsored insider information.
 

Not only that, with a paid subscription to early access and the global reach that Trump has, no true information is needed to move markets. It is essentially a tool for Trump to fabricate false or vague information, which influences markets as much as true information. He does not need a particularly likely event and share information about it early, he could just say "talks with Iran have resumed lats evening, Strait of Hormus to be opened up within 24 hours". This happened before and it doesn't make a difference whether Iran publishes a counter statement that no talks have been resumed.

Trump can fabricate whatever information he wants and as long as it has a touch of confidentiality, like diplomatic talks, he could always say that no supportive evidence can be published because of confidentiality agreements. It is all about his power to move the markets and the sensitivity of market participants to Trump's claims. Those with early access to whatever Trump publishes, can immediately execute trades and then right away sell into the hyped public that will get access to that information moments later.

I don't think it matters whether it is legal or not since Trump can pardon everyone and his dog. Trump will be creating an obsession among people to follow his account and pay for early access. it would not surprise me if he goes one step further and sells different tiers to the broader public in order to give more people a "chance" to afford it. And he is planning ahead, his erratic behavior could as well be part of a plan. If he says "Iranians said this" then the next hour says "Iranians can't be trusted, now said this", and repeats this a hundred times like he did, he could always claim that his only intention was to keep the public informed as much as possible while his crew is playing the market in the background.

[angrybirdy]

Since Trump is still one of the most powerful people in the world, his announcements and actions have an impact on many things, especially in the commercial sector. Honestly, if Trump were to announce right now that his country is declaring Bitcoin as its national currency, we cannot even imagine where the price of Bitcoin would reach. On the contrary, if Trump were to declare Bitcoin as a worthless asset, we would see Bitcoin go down a lot. Let's not forget that when Trump came to power in his second term, part of his election campaign was the acceptance of Bitcoin, which is why many people voted for him. Even if he now declares war verbally, we would still be in a global economic turmoil.

I get what you are saying and I agree that Trumps statements can definitely move the market, especially since a lot of investors reacts easily to a big political news. But I don't think one person even someone as influential as Donal trump can completely decide where the bitcoin goes... If he announced something positive about btc, I can see the that price pumping because people would get excited about his announcements. On the other hand, if he called it worthless then there would probably be a slight changes or down price. BTC has been through a lot of criticism from global news, governments and public figures even wayback before yet still it has managed to recover. I think its price depends on a lot of things to consider like the investor confidence, worldwide demand and how different countries choose to regulate it, not just on what one person or leader says.

[Alpha Marine]

But to understand why this is essentially the same thing, let’s read the classic definition of insider information and its key characteristics!
"Insider information is accurate, confidential, and non-public information about a company’s or market’s activities, the possession of which provides an advantage. If this information reaches the general public, they may be able to make money or avoid losing money, as it significantly affects stock prices or commodity prices.
Key Characteristics
Confidentiality: The information has not been published in the media and is hidden from the general public.
Significance: The information can significantly alter stock prices or exchange rates.
Reliability: These are true facts, not rumors.
"
Does the truth align with what Trump is trying to sell  via subscription? This is state-sponsored insider information.

It still doesn't make it insider information.
Let's use his Truth Socials app as an example. The posts he makes on his account there have an impact in various sectors of the economy or financial market. So people on Truth Social who have his notifications on will see his posts first before it is reported by a news outlet. They can use those posts to make trades, financial or investment decisions immediately they see it.
Then a few minutes or hours later, it will be reported all over, and the effect on the market will be felt. This does not mean he is involved in insider trading.

The only difference between the new format is that he monetised it. He is still going to be making the same tweets he has been making, but this time only people who paid for it will see his tweets first.

I can't put anything past this Trump administration, but I still doubt this would be allowed. The president should not profit off his office in such manner. It should be illegal, but it's not insider trading.

[EarnOnVictor]

-snip-
Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

This frightens me and makes me apprehensive at this point. Trump is selfish, greedy, and he's many worse things, but this would be the height of them all.

You would do us a big favour if you could attach a link, at least, for us to take a glance at the post itself. It must be from a reputable source; otherwise, do not bother.

I asked for that because, aside from the fact that this is illegal for a sitting president, the foreknowledge of that important news/events would make people/companies know what's going to happen, then automate it for personal use/gain or resell it to individuals cheaper, and invariably still does not amount to something useful.

In the financial market, it will only create unnecessary tension. In the prediction market, the side with the bought info will have a very ridiculous gain possibility.