Prediction markets, insider information, and... Trump!

[Hazink]

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

It's very obvious, it is not a question that when someone pays for a subscription to get their hand on information earlier, they have a legal right to use that information however they want without them being held as like they violated any rules, and we all know for such that there is always a high chance of Trump post having effect in the market and could also be available on staking in prediction market, those who have $100k to pay monthly will also have millions to stake to take advantage of that information.

[mirakal]

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

Is this a rhetorical question? It's obvious that Trump wants to sell insider information. The big question here is, why is the American Supreme Court doing nothing? What are they waiting for? I can assume that Trump has immunity when it comes to legal actions against him, so I'm pretty sure that he will get sued for insider trading, after his presidential mandate ends. This is the most blatant attempt of selling insider information I've ever seen. Trump had increased his wealth a lot after becoming a president of the US. He's really greedy and wants to make as such money as possible before his presidency ends.

Well, we can't expect an immediate action from American Supreme Court since Trump's power has still an effect to them, though it is said to be an independent branch of government. But doing nothing simply means Trump's actions are legal, and that becomes an ethical and financial conflict since its very clear that Trump is using his presidency position for personal greed and interest.

However, you're right there, he'll pay everything once he's out of from his current position, just like other ex presidents from other countries.

[Johnlomape]

Businessman Trump just wants to monetise everything and make sure he milks it before his end of tenure in office. How could such even be legal unless they will also have to ban some things from being stakeable in prediction markets? If not, the intention of anyone who is risking $100k monthly can’t be different from using such information to make money off the market.

Trump has been one of my favorite president that have learnt his lesson during his first tenure on how he lost some of his fortunes trying to please everyone and even gave out his salaries because he believed to be rich enough and don't need the salary.
Since the beginning of his current tenure, he has been making money through the news and insider information his family has been using to rip the market and make billions of dollars. He his ready to show the world that he's a business man and he has to utilize his power to make other rich too.

[abel1337]

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

Is this a rhetorical question? It's obvious that Trump wants to sell insider information. The big question here is, why is the American Supreme Court doing nothing? What are they waiting for? I can assume that Trump has immunity when it comes to legal actions against him, so I'm pretty sure that he will get sued for insider trading, after his presidential mandate ends. This is the most blatant attempt of selling insider information I've ever seen. Trump had increased his wealth a lot after becoming a president of the US. He's really greedy and wants to make as such money as possible before his presidency ends.

Well, we can't expect an immediate action from American Supreme Court since Trump's power has still an effect to them, though it is said to be an independent branch of government. But doing nothing simply means Trump's actions are legal, and that becomes an ethical and financial conflict since its very clear that Trump is using his presidency position for personal greed and interest.

However, you're right there, he'll pay everything once he's out of from his current position, just like other ex presidents from other countries.

It is expected that Trump will pay for his misdeeds after his term, there are several possible law suits against him and I'm sure he'll face all of it as soon as he ended his term. With this paid early access plan of him, it is blatant selling an insider information. The price tag is steep but I'm sure there is someone who will openly pay for it since the information is usable to earn money.

It is just simply corrupt. I wonder how will prediction market gamblers would react when this plan of trump is launched. I believe that gamblers would avoid doing a bet on possible market that has anything to do with Trump.

[Hispo]

If anyone here had any doubt on Trump using his influence to profit of his image and the presidency, then you need to check on the lastest news about how Trump has started to charge people and companies in order to have access to his post and get advertisement directly from him as the president of the country.

Trump has said it is a disgrace there are people around him taking advantage of privileged information to profit from prediction markets, but he does not apply the same logic to him when he uses his position to get money.

[bakasabo]

If anyone here had any doubt on Trump using his influence to profit of his image and the presidency, then you need to check on the lastest news about how Trump has started to charge people and companies in order to have access to his post and get advertisement directly from him as the president of the country.

Trump has said it is a disgrace there are people around him taking advantage of privileged information to profit from prediction markets, but he does not apply the same logic to him when he uses his position to get money.

Disgrace to use insiders and privileged information, yet he plans to sell early access to his posts. From that I can say that story when his teleprompter was accused for using insiders info for placing predictions is getting rid of unwelcomed person "who was using feature for free that Trump plans to sell". He was simply cleaning area where he plans to earn next. He is simply trying to monetize everything that involves his name. Try to squeeze every penny from Trump brand.

[KiaKia]

selling early access to information is a clear example of corruption using the president's role. it would be interesting to hear from American regulators but there's a suspicion they're too afraid to go against Trump and will remain silent. this isn't the first example and everyone remembers how the red card for a US national team player at the World Cup was overturned after Trump's intervention.

as far as I remember, the US passed the PREDICT Act which prohibits government employees from trading and betting on prediction market platforms. but the temptation is too great and loopholes can be found, such as trading through acquaintances or friends.

Elizabeth Warren looks like the only person that's not that scared of Trump, as a woman I respect her for this, men like Trump can't even call Trump out for anything, it's online this woman, she is indeed powerful.

I read online this morning that Elizabeth Warren is asking SEC to investigate Trump himself and his memecoin, this is becoming the most talked about discussion on X as we speak.

Trump is indeed using his power illegally, he enriched his family with crypto in 2025, it was all planned out and it favoured him,  but I am sure that this man is dirty but as a politician that he is, it's hard to always be 100% clean.

[Alex077]

...
Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

I think we should be careful with the term “insider information” here. There’s nothing unusual about companies paying for faster access to public information. That’s been part of financial markets for years, especially when trading algorithms can react within seconds.

But in this particular case, the situation does look much more questionable. The Truth API gives financial companies extremely fast access to posts from the biggest Truth Social accounts, including Trump’s own account. Trump Media openly says that markets already react to these posts and that faster access to this information is one of the advantages of the product.

But for me, the main problem is this: the advantage is no longer just about who analyzes the information better or, basically, who is smarter. It can also come down to who is able to pay for a few extra seconds of early access to that information. And that definitely changes the idea of a level playing field for everyone in the markets, including crypto markets.

[ultrloa]

...
Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

I think we should be careful with the term “insider information” here. There’s nothing unusual about companies paying for faster access to public information. That’s been part of financial markets for years, especially when trading algorithms can react within seconds.

But in this particular case, the situation does look much more questionable. The Truth API gives financial companies extremely fast access to posts from the biggest Truth Social accounts, including Trump’s own account. Trump Media openly says that markets already react to these posts and that faster access to this information is one of the advantages of the product.

But for me, the main problem is this: the advantage is no longer just about who analyzes the information better or, basically, who is smarter. It can also come down to who is able to pay for a few extra seconds of early access to that information. And that definitely changes the idea of a level playing field for everyone in the markets, including crypto markets.

Yeah true that there are financial firms doing this for long time just to get fast feeds of those public information's. This is where the problem starts since if those early access has been sold on those company.

What will happen is everything will not depend on those who are smart or made lots of good research. But rather who are those companies paying to have advantage.

This situation makes the market not really fair to everyone.  Because The main issue is about those company paid and get early access, then they have huge strong edge compare to others thru the data they bought.

[Nathrixxx]

Trump has said it is a disgrace there are people around him taking advantage of privileged information to profit from prediction markets, but he does not apply the same logic to himself when he uses his position to get money.

That's true; Trump has already cleared the air, and this is why I don't like prediction market at all because it is not possible for you to play this and never experience an inside that leak to any prediction you made, everything is not going to definitely be attributed to him or any other political person, but the issue lies with prediction market itself and everything about their procedures are not verifiable because of challenges like this coming up from insiders.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Trump has implicated/ tried to get entangled with everything that the public consumes. Football, basketball, name them.. all or sudden, another sovereign nation needs to abide by Trump's law, even when there's a pending war. I also heard some conspiracies about Trump's son getting caught for trying to manipulate gambling in some type of ways--- I can't recall, but they were reported to have insider knowledge. I have forgotten what it was about but I'll search for it again.

Yes, it's a fact that things are like this. I've been very attentive to things because I've been actively trading in the market, and supposedly last night Trump was going to launch a massive attack on Iran, but he suddenly stopped the attack because he received intelligence that they were finally going to reach a nuclear agreement. So the news is sensationalist; they say they already have an agreement, but there can't be an agreement when they're attacking each other. So unfortunately, the focus of attention for the markets and any activity depends on what Trump does and the wars.

[Bryan jessy]

If anyone here had any doubt on Trump using his influence to profit of his image and the presidency, then you need to check on the lastest news about how Trump has started to charge people and companies in order to have access to his post and get advertisement directly from him as the president of the country.

Trump has said it is a disgrace there are people around him taking advantage of privileged information to profit from prediction markets, but he does not apply the same logic to him when he uses his position to get money.

Disgrace to use insiders and privileged information, yet he plans to sell early access to his posts. From that I can say that story when his teleprompter was accused for using insiders info for placing predictions is getting rid of unwelcomed person "who was using feature for free that Trump plans to sell". He was simply cleaning area where he plans to earn next. He is simply trying to monetize everything that involves his name. Try to squeeze every penny from Trump brand.

I have actually came across the story of his teleprompter who was accused of using inside information for prediction, so the only difference here is that the teleprompter did not pay for the information he used, hope he was not charged or fired though, since Trump is now considering selling his information, and if that actually happens maybe the teleprompter should be forgiven, my thought since there is an update of something similar or could it be that this idea of marketing fast access his information is a hint from the teleprompter's incident that made he consider such thing, since the prediction was right I am sure no one will want to miss such information, some he will monetize it really well.

[Patikno]

If anyone here had any doubt on Trump using his influence to profit of his image and the presidency, then you need to check on the lastest news about how Trump has started to charge people and companies in order to have access to his post and get advertisement directly from him as the president of the country.

Trump has said it is a disgrace there are people around him taking advantage of privileged information to profit from prediction markets, but he does not apply the same logic to him when he uses his position to get money.

Aren't the multiple shitcoins associated with Trump also evidence of the same ? I mean, he is already made so much profit from just one shitcoin (especially from others), and I am sure that also relates to our discussion here: Trump's influence is exploited to gain profit. So, I guess you don't have to wonder that he would do the same thing (related to prediction markets). Personally, I smell a double standard, oddly enough the scent is getting stronger, and I am not surprised the same thing might happen again and again.

Source : indodax.com - Donald Trump Raises $320 Million Through $TRUMP Token! (need translation to read it, from "Indonesia" to "English")

[Hispo]

If anyone here had any doubt on Trump using his influence to profit of his image and the presidency, then you need to check on the lastest news about how Trump has started to charge people and companies in order to have access to his post and get advertisement directly from him as the president of the country.

Trump has said it is a disgrace there are people around him taking advantage of privileged information to profit from prediction markets, but he does not apply the same logic to him when he uses his position to get money.

Aren't the multiple shitcoins associated with Trump also evidence of the same ? I mean, he is already made so much profit from just one shitcoin (especially from others), and I am sure that also relates to our discussion here: Trump's influence is exploited to gain profit. So, I guess you don't have to wonder that he would do the same thing (related to prediction markets). Personally, I smell a double standard, oddly enough the scent is getting stronger, and I am not surprised the same thing might happen again and again.

Source : indodax.com - Donald Trump Raises $320 Million Through $TRUMP Token! (need translation to read it, from "Indonesia" to "English")

In the case of Trump he has officially only made money out a single shitcoins with his name, that is the token he and his team launched after he won the presidential election against Kamala Harris. The rest of the token and shitcoins do not have a direct relation with him beyond the name, though with all the wacky stuff going on around trump and his family, I would not be surprised there were family members and members of his staff who are fully into speculation of shitcoins and tokens for the sole sake of getting money of gullible people.

It reminds me the occasion Trump launched his own NTF collection, he is classical example of grifter, in my opinion.

[Peanutswar]

Even before Trump already has the influence and we know that if you have this and you will have followers you can easily manipulate people. Never been tried that service but if that service of having an early access this could be an edge to the people they can now create profit of having an early buying or selling in the market but of course its a paid service so you need to at least buy to them cons is if you are a small time investor basically it does not benefit to you at all and also if the people or the market already adapted with the changes even you have an early calls is the market does not even shake a little so it becomes useless. Also we know he also associated with the Trump token even its memecoin is he can still manipulate this token whenever he wanted but personally its ideal that the president is out of touch like in this matter.

[Satofan44]

I don't agree with everything satofan44 is saying, but I think this is neither his goal to convince everyone nor does it make any sense to always agree on everything. 

I would like to add a few things to the discussion though. satofan44 is right that by legal definition, selling early access to most of the things the president has to say, doesn't automatically constitute insider information abuse. But in my opinion satofan44 can't predict whether there will be such an abuse in the future. However, it will be very easy for Trump to keep dancing on that fine line between insider information abuse and expression of opinion as he is absolutely entitled to express his "opinion". I get that many here don't understand this fine distinction because they assume that whatever the president says and grants early access to, must be insider information, and that is just wrong as, how satofan44 explained, what really counts is the legal definition.

For example, if Trump says "after this weekend I think I am going to blow up Iran", gives early access and banks go long on oil, and then on Tuesday says "I heard they reached out to us, not gonna blow them up", it doesn't matter whether his words have the power to move markets, there is literally no way to legally attack him for that regardless of granting paid early access to that piece of information. He also does probably not give early access selectively to what he posts, but to every post he makes. That makes it even harder to attack him. It is just that he sells a time advantage to Social Truth users. Pretty strong business move if you think about it. A massive pull factor to generate new signups for his platform besides pushing his revenue through the roof. And that entails many more opportunities for him in many other areas.

Look, the idea here is to be precise and truthful and to not make false generalizations, make shit up, reinvent or change legal definitions or whatever the fuck many people of this forum are doing all the time -- thanks to liberal brain rot and pajeet moderators who do not act on anything. If you look at my argument, it has nothing to do with whether something will or won't be abused -- it is entirely focused on the false claims that it is legalizing insider information, which this is not. This is perfectly legal, and they have already vetted it and compared it to what existing companies already offer. Now, you may rightfully claim that Trump may abuse this in the future based on his monetizing the presidency -- but the argument does not make sense. He does not need this feature to do insider information sharing, he already is friends with many billionaires and they are making big amounts of money because of this. People on this forum are so poor, they have no idea what kind of league Trump works in. If he were to use this feature to do "insider trading" it would only increase his risk several times for very little return. Therefore, you can't use an argument of something being possible as your core -- most things are possible in life however improbable.

Now satofan44 also mentioned that other presidents have done the same and I am surprised that a lot of people seem to have missed one of the most questionable pardons ever granted that just happened not too long ago and is a big topic in congress right now: Dr. Fauci was granted a preemptive pardon by Biden for 2014 till 2025. Everyone who saw Fauci answering questions in the congressional hearing, knows what a shit show it was when he invoked fifth amendment a few hundred times. Pardons are standard. Using insider information without getting caught is standard. Abusing presidential power or former presidential status to increase income is standard. There are many standards that apply to all of them equally, but indeed, Trump is taking transparency about it to a whole different level. He just doesn't hide what others (if possible) preferred to be hidden. 

The other presidents just behave in a more nice way when they do much bigger corruption deals than Trump does. Weak minded fools and those susceptible to the MSM scam are easily swayed by people who are con men pretending to be angels. This is one of the reasons why they believe Trump is some evil monster that is the worst ever, whereas most Democratic members are significantly worse than Trump. Again to conclude, what we have here is a perfectly legal low-latency news feed.