Prediction markets, insider information, and... Trump!

[Hazink]

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

It's very obvious, it is not a question that when someone pays for a subscription to get their hand on information earlier, they have a legal right to use that information however they want without them being held as like they violated any rules, and we all know for such that there is always a high chance of Trump post having effect in the market and could also be available on staking in prediction market, those who have $100k to pay monthly will also have millions to stake to take advantage of that information.

[mirakal]

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

Is this a rhetorical question? It's obvious that Trump wants to sell insider information. The big question here is, why is the American Supreme Court doing nothing? What are they waiting for? I can assume that Trump has immunity when it comes to legal actions against him, so I'm pretty sure that he will get sued for insider trading, after his presidential mandate ends. This is the most blatant attempt of selling insider information I've ever seen. Trump had increased his wealth a lot after becoming a president of the US. He's really greedy and wants to make as such money as possible before his presidency ends.

Well, we can't expect an immediate action from American Supreme Court since Trump's power has still an effect to them, though it is said to be an independent branch of government. But doing nothing simply means Trump's actions are legal, and that becomes an ethical and financial conflict since its very clear that Trump is using his presidency position for personal greed and interest.

However, you're right there, he'll pay everything once he's out of from his current position, just like other ex presidents from other countries.

[Johnlomape]

Businessman Trump just wants to monetise everything and make sure he milks it before his end of tenure in office. How could such even be legal unless they will also have to ban some things from being stakeable in prediction markets? If not, the intention of anyone who is risking $100k monthly can’t be different from using such information to make money off the market.

Trump has been one of my favorite president that have learnt his lesson during his first tenure on how he lost some of his fortunes trying to please everyone and even gave out his salaries because he believed to be rich enough and don't need the salary.
Since the beginning of his current tenure, he has been making money through the news and insider information his family has been using to rip the market and make billions of dollars. He his ready to show the world that he's a business man and he has to utilize his power to make other rich too.

[abel1337]

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

Is this a rhetorical question? It's obvious that Trump wants to sell insider information. The big question here is, why is the American Supreme Court doing nothing? What are they waiting for? I can assume that Trump has immunity when it comes to legal actions against him, so I'm pretty sure that he will get sued for insider trading, after his presidential mandate ends. This is the most blatant attempt of selling insider information I've ever seen. Trump had increased his wealth a lot after becoming a president of the US. He's really greedy and wants to make as such money as possible before his presidency ends.

Well, we can't expect an immediate action from American Supreme Court since Trump's power has still an effect to them, though it is said to be an independent branch of government. But doing nothing simply means Trump's actions are legal, and that becomes an ethical and financial conflict since its very clear that Trump is using his presidency position for personal greed and interest.

However, you're right there, he'll pay everything once he's out of from his current position, just like other ex presidents from other countries.

It is expected that Trump will pay for his misdeeds after his term, there are several possible law suits against him and I'm sure he'll face all of it as soon as he ended his term. With this paid early access plan of him, it is blatant selling an insider information. The price tag is steep but I'm sure there is someone who will openly pay for it since the information is usable to earn money.

It is just simply corrupt. I wonder how will prediction market gamblers would react when this plan of trump is launched. I believe that gamblers would avoid doing a bet on possible market that has anything to do with Trump.

[Hispo]

If anyone here had any doubt on Trump using his influence to profit of his image and the presidency, then you need to check on the lastest news about how Trump has started to charge people and companies in order to have access to his post and get advertisement directly from him as the president of the country.

Trump has said it is a disgrace there are people around him taking advantage of privileged information to profit from prediction markets, but he does not apply the same logic to him when he uses his position to get money.

[bakasabo]

If anyone here had any doubt on Trump using his influence to profit of his image and the presidency, then you need to check on the lastest news about how Trump has started to charge people and companies in order to have access to his post and get advertisement directly from him as the president of the country.

Trump has said it is a disgrace there are people around him taking advantage of privileged information to profit from prediction markets, but he does not apply the same logic to him when he uses his position to get money.

Disgrace to use insiders and privileged information, yet he plans to sell early access to his posts. From that I can say that story when his teleprompter was accused for using insiders info for placing predictions is getting rid of unwelcomed person "who was using feature for free that Trump plans to sell". He was simply cleaning area where he plans to earn next. He is simply trying to monetize everything that involves his name. Try to squeeze every penny from Trump brand.

[KiaKia]

selling early access to information is a clear example of corruption using the president's role. it would be interesting to hear from American regulators but there's a suspicion they're too afraid to go against Trump and will remain silent. this isn't the first example and everyone remembers how the red card for a US national team player at the World Cup was overturned after Trump's intervention.

as far as I remember, the US passed the PREDICT Act which prohibits government employees from trading and betting on prediction market platforms. but the temptation is too great and loopholes can be found, such as trading through acquaintances or friends.

Elizabeth Warren looks like the only person that's not that scared of Trump, as a woman I respect her for this, men like Trump can't even call Trump out for anything, it's online this woman, she is indeed powerful.

I read online this morning that Elizabeth Warren is asking SEC to investigate Trump himself and his memecoin, this is becoming the most talked about discussion on X as we speak.

Trump is indeed using his power illegally, he enriched his family with crypto in 2025, it was all planned out and it favoured him,  but I am sure that this man is dirty but as a politician that he is, it's hard to always be 100% clean.

[Alex077]

...
Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

I think we should be careful with the term “insider information” here. There’s nothing unusual about companies paying for faster access to public information. That’s been part of financial markets for years, especially when trading algorithms can react within seconds.

But in this particular case, the situation does look much more questionable. The Truth API gives financial companies extremely fast access to posts from the biggest Truth Social accounts, including Trump’s own account. Trump Media openly says that markets already react to these posts and that faster access to this information is one of the advantages of the product.

But for me, the main problem is this: the advantage is no longer just about who analyzes the information better or, basically, who is smarter. It can also come down to who is able to pay for a few extra seconds of early access to that information. And that definitely changes the idea of a level playing field for everyone in the markets, including crypto markets.

[ultrloa]

...
Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

I think we should be careful with the term “insider information” here. There’s nothing unusual about companies paying for faster access to public information. That’s been part of financial markets for years, especially when trading algorithms can react within seconds.

But in this particular case, the situation does look much more questionable. The Truth API gives financial companies extremely fast access to posts from the biggest Truth Social accounts, including Trump’s own account. Trump Media openly says that markets already react to these posts and that faster access to this information is one of the advantages of the product.

But for me, the main problem is this: the advantage is no longer just about who analyzes the information better or, basically, who is smarter. It can also come down to who is able to pay for a few extra seconds of early access to that information. And that definitely changes the idea of a level playing field for everyone in the markets, including crypto markets.

Yeah true that there are financial firms doing this for long time just to get fast feeds of those public information's. This is where the problem starts since if those early access has been sold on those company.

What will happen is everything will not depend on those who are smart or made lots of good research. But rather who are those companies paying to have advantage.

This situation makes the market not really fair to everyone.  Because The main issue is about those company paid and get early access, then they have huge strong edge compare to others thru the data they bought.

[Nathrixxx]

Trump has said it is a disgrace there are people around him taking advantage of privileged information to profit from prediction markets, but he does not apply the same logic to himself when he uses his position to get money.

That's true; Trump has already cleared the air, and this is why I don't like prediction market at all because it is not possible for you to play this and never experience an inside that leak to any prediction you made, everything is not going to definitely be attributed to him or any other political person, but the issue lies with prediction market itself and everything about their procedures are not verifiable because of challenges like this coming up from insiders.